feat: the write path — apply estimate/priority changes to gitea (P4-3 apply_changes)

The first write path. Read, forecast, and calibration were all real; now you can
*manage* CommiTea from CommiTea. Estimates/priority are exclusive label axes, so
a change is a label swap — proposed, approved, then written. Nothing is assumed.

core (@commitea/core):
- planIssueChange(current, change): pure diff planner — swaps the est/*|p/* axis,
  clears on null, dedups a doubled axis; returns the resulting label set + a
  before/after diff + noop flag. describeChange() renders "est/2d → est/5d".
- request() seam extended for writes (method/body, JSON, 204). client gains
  listLabels() (name→id) and setIssueLabels() (PUT /issues/{n}/labels).

app:
- main bridge gitea:applyChange — resolves plan.labels → ids (cached, refetch on
  miss), PUTs, returns the plan + fresh issue. Token never leaves main.
- preload + global.d.ts expose applyChange; useBacklog returns a refetch so a
  write re-reconciles the board + forecast.
- Issue screen: an Adjust button (shown only when configured) opens a
  propose-approve Dialog — estimate/priority pickers, live "est/3d → est/8d"
  consequence, Apply/Cancel. AppShell wires it, reflects new labels on the open
  issue immediately, and refetches.

Verified: 83 core tests green (7 apply-changes + 2 client-write new), desktop
typecheck clean, 14 fixture e2e green. Live spec exercises propose + CANCEL (no
mutation); the real PUT was verified once manually (change #2 est/3d→est/8d→200,
reverted clean). Icon: pencil (no sliders-horizontal in the set).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/desktop/e2e/live-backlog.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+// Opt-in only (GITEA_LIVE=1). Launches WITHOUT COMMITEA_E2E so the main process
+// reconciles the real repo via .env.local, and asserts real data renders.
+test.describe('live backlog', () => {
+  test('The pot + Focus render real gitea data', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE, 'GITEA_LIVE not set — opt-in live test')
+    const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
+
+    // The pot — waiting here also lets the reconcile (issues + deps + timelines) complete
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'The pot' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText('Gitea read client behind an injected fetch')).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+    // Lifecycle inference (#5): columns come from the real event stream — merged
+    // work lands in Done, so that column is non-empty (proves timelines drove it,
+    // not the three-column fallback which would still show closed issues in Done).
+    await expect(win.getByText('Done', { exact: true })).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-board.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Back to Focus — the deterministic scheduler's real Now/Next/Later. These
+    // rationale phrases are emitted only by the scheduler, never by the demo fixture.
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/on the critical path|unblocks #|waits on #|· ready/).first()).toBeVisible()
+    // Real Monte Carlo cone — this headline is emitted only for real forecasts.
+    await expect(win.getByText(/80% of the open backlog lands by/)).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Cold-start priors/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-focus.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Runway → calibration surface, fitted from real closed-issue actuals (#1).
+    // With <20 estimated closes the repo is honestly cold-start; the note proves
+    // the fit ran on real data, not the fixture's "calibrated on 27".
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Runway' }).click()
+    await expect(
+      win.getByText(/cold-start priors · \d+\/20 closed issues estimated|calibrated on \d+ closed/),
+    ).toBeVisible()
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Full report' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/cold-start · \d+\/20|curve active · n ≥ 20/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-calibration.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Write path (apply_changes): open the top scheduled issue, propose an
+    // estimate change, and confirm the propose-approve diff renders — then CANCEL
+    // so the live run never mutates the real repo (the PUT is unit-tested; a
+    // one-off change→revert verified it against gitea manually).
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
+    await win.getByRole('main').getByRole('link').first().click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/· stephen\/commitea/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Adjust' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText('Adjust estimate & priority')).toBeVisible()
+    await win.getByRole('combobox').first().selectOption('est/8d')
+    await expect(win.getByText('Proposed label change')).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/est\/8d/).last()).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-apply-change.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Cancel' }).click() // no mutation
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/smoke.spec.ts

@@ -82,6 +82,42 @@ test('Capture: braindump advances to the interview', async ({ app, window }) =>
   await expect(window.getByText(/Interview · 1 of 3/)).toBeVisible()
 })
 
+test('Directives: consequence diff + append-only ledger', async ({ app, window }) => {
+  await app.nav('Directives').click()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Directives' })).toBeVisible()
+  await expect(window.getByText('Consequence diff')).toBeVisible()
+  await expect(window.getByText(/append-only · JSONL in pm-state/)).toBeVisible()
+  await app.screenshot('directives')
+  // resolving the pending directive moves it into the ledger
+  await window.getByRole('button', { name: 'Make it so' }).click()
+  await expect(window.getByText('Consequence diff')).toBeHidden()
+  await expect(window.getByText(/Nothing awaits your word/)).toBeVisible()
+})
+
+test('Settings: connection, schema, and appearance sync with theme', async ({ app, window }) => {
+  await app.nav('Settings').click()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Settings' })).toBeVisible()
+  await expect(window.getByText('Managed repos')).toBeVisible()
+  await app.screenshot('settings')
+  // the Evening (dark) radio drives the shared theme
+  await window.getByText('Evening (dark)').click()
+  await expect(window.locator('html')).toHaveAttribute('data-theme', 'dark')
+})
+
+test('Onboarding: full-window first-run flow with test gate', async ({ app, window }) => {
+  await app.nav('First run').click()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Good morning.' })).toBeVisible()
+  // full-window: no rail wordmark link, brand only
+  await app.screenshot('onboarding')
+  await window.getByRole('button', { name: 'Begin' }).click()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Your Gitea' })).toBeVisible()
+  // Continue is gated until the connection test passes
+  await expect(window.getByRole('button', { name: 'Continue' })).toBeDisabled()
+  await window.getByRole('button', { name: 'Test connection' }).click()
+  await expect(window.getByText(/connected · 3 repos visible/)).toBeVisible()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('button', { name: 'Continue' })).toBeEnabled()
+})
+
 test('issue drill-in from a Focus card and back-stack of one', async ({ app, window }) => {
   await window.getByRole('link', { name: 'Fix lifecycle inference on merge events' }).click()
   await expect(window.getByText('#87 · stephen/commitea')).toBeVisible()

apps/desktop/src/main/gitea.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+/**
+ * Main-process gitea bridge. All gitea traffic runs here — the token never
+ * reaches the renderer (which is CSP-locked to 'self' anyway). The renderer
+ * calls these over IPC (see preload). Config for the dogfood slice comes from
+ * the environment or the repo's .env.local; Settings/Onboarding wire it up
+ * properly later.
+ */
+
+import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+
+import {
+  createGiteaClient,
+  type GiteaConfig,
+  type GiteaLabel,
+  type IssueChange,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  planIssueChange,
+} from '@commitea/core'
+import { ipcMain } from 'electron'
+
+/** Walk up from cwd looking for a .env.local with a GITEA_TOKEN (dev convenience). */
+function loadEnvLocalToken(): string | undefined {
+  let dir = process.cwd()
+  for (let i = 0; i < 6; i++) {
+    try {
+      const txt = readFileSync(join(dir, '.env.local'), 'utf8')
+      const m = /^GITEA_TOKEN\s*=\s*(.+?)\s*$/m.exec(txt)
+      if (m) return m[1].trim()
+    } catch {
+      // not in this dir — keep walking up
+    }
+    const parent = dirname(dir)
+    if (parent === dir) break
+    dir = parent
+  }
+  return undefined
+}
+
+function resolveConfig(): GiteaConfig | null {
+  // E2E runs against fixtures — never hit the network from the test harness.
+  if (process.env.COMMITEA_E2E === '1') return null
+  const token = process.env.GITEA_TOKEN ?? loadEnvLocalToken()
+  if (!token) return null
+  return {
+    baseUrl: process.env.GITEA_BASE_URL ?? 'https://gitea.stephenmann.io',
+    token,
+    owner: process.env.GITEA_OWNER ?? 'christian',
+    repo: process.env.GITEA_REPO ?? 'commitea',
+  }
+}
+
+export function registerGiteaIpc(): void {
+  const config = resolveConfig()
+  const client = config ? createGiteaClient(config, fetch) : null
+  const repo = config ? `${config.owner}/${config.repo}` : null
+
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:status', () => ({ configured: !!config, repo }))
+
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:reconcile', async () => {
+    if (!client) return { configured: false, issues: [], milestones: [], deps: [], timelines: {} }
+    const [issues, milestones] = await Promise.all([client.listIssues(), client.listMilestones()])
+    // dependency edges among the open scope (the scheduler only plans what's left)
+    const open = issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    const perIssue = await Promise.all(
+      open.map(async (i) => ({ issue: i.number, dependsOn: await client.getIssueDependencies(i.number) })),
+    )
+    const deps = perIssue.flatMap(({ issue, dependsOn }) => dependsOn.map((d) => ({ issue, dependsOn: d })))
+    // lifecycle timelines for every issue (open → columns/badges, closed → calibration actuals)
+    const timelineEntries = await Promise.all(
+      issues.map(async (i) => [i.number, await client.getIssueTimeline(i.number)] as const),
+    )
+    const timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]> = Object.fromEntries(timelineEntries)
+    return { configured: true, issues, milestones, deps, timelines }
+  })
+
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:getIssue', async (_event, index: number) => {
+    if (!client) return null
+    return client.getIssue(index)
+  })
+
+  // Cached label list for name→id resolution; refreshed on demand if a name misses.
+  let labelCache: GiteaLabel[] | null = null
+  async function resolveLabelIds(names: string[]): Promise<number[]> {
+    if (!client) return []
+    const lookup = () => new Map(labelCache!.map((l) => [l.name, l.id]))
+    if (!labelCache) labelCache = await client.listLabels()
+    let byName = lookup()
+    if (names.some((n) => !byName.has(n))) {
+      labelCache = await client.listLabels() // a name we don't know — refetch once
+      byName = lookup()
+    }
+    return names.map((n) => byName.get(n)).filter((id): id is number => id != null)
+  }
+
+  // The write path (apply_changes). Additive label swaps, applied only after the
+  // renderer's propose-approve. Returns the plan + the freshly-read issue.
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:applyChange', async (_event, change: IssueChange) => {
+    if (!client) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+    const current = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
+    const plan = planIssueChange(current.labels, change)
+    if (plan.noop) return { ok: true as const, plan, issue: current }
+    const ids = await resolveLabelIds(plan.labels)
+    await client.setIssueLabels(change.issue, ids)
+    const issue = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
+    return { ok: true as const, plan, issue }
+  })
+}

apps/desktop/src/main/index.ts

@@ -2,6 +2,8 @@ import { join } from 'node:path'
 
 import { BrowserWindow, app, shell } from 'electron'
 
+import { registerGiteaIpc } from './gitea.js'
+
 function createWindow(): void {
   const win = new BrowserWindow({
     width: 1440,
@@ -32,6 +34,7 @@ function createWindow(): void {
 }
 
 void app.whenReady().then(() => {
+  registerGiteaIpc()
   createWindow()
 
   app.on('activate', () => {

apps/desktop/src/preload/index.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,17 @@
-import { contextBridge } from 'electron'
+import { contextBridge, ipcRenderer } from 'electron'
 
 const api = {
   platform: process.platform,
+  gitea: {
+    /** Whether the main process has a gitea token + target repo configured. */
+    status: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:status'),
+    /** Full read of the managed repo — every issue + milestone. */
+    reconcile: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:reconcile'),
+    /** One issue by index, normalized (or null if unconfigured). */
+    getIssue: (index: number) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:getIssue', index),
+    /** Apply an estimate/priority change (the write path); resolves to the plan + fresh issue. */
+    applyChange: (change: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:applyChange', change),
+  },
 }
 
 export type CommiteaApi = typeof api

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/charts/chart.tsx

@@ -1,15 +1,21 @@
+import type { BurnUpData } from '../../lib/dates.js'
+
 /**
- * Charts — geometry, not decoration. Ported from the handoff's Chart.js. The
+ * Charts — geometry, not decoration. Ported from the handoff's Chart.js. When a
- * fixed sample paths here stand in for scheduler/Monte Carlo output (P2); the
+ * `data` prop is supplied the cone is drawn from real Monte Carlo output
- * shapes (cone from today, 80% band, actual polyline, today rule) are final.
+ * (#10); without it, the fixed sample paths below stand in (demo mode). The
+ * shapes (cone from today, 80% band, today rule) are final.
  */
 
 export interface BurnUpConeProps {
   width?: number
   height?: number
+  /** Real forecast geometry. When present it replaces the demo sample paths. */
+  data?: BurnUpData
 }
 
-export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220 }: BurnUpConeProps) {
+export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220, data }: BurnUpConeProps) {
+  if (data) return <BurnUpConeReal width={width} height={height} data={data} />
   const pad = { l: 34, r: 96, t: 16, b: 26 }
   const W = width - pad.l - pad.r
   const H = height - pad.t - pad.b
@@ -89,6 +95,62 @@ export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220 }: BurnUpConeProps) {
   )
 }
 
+/** Data-driven twin of BurnUpCone — same visual grammar, real forecast geometry. */
+function BurnUpConeReal({ width, height, data }: { width: number; height: number; data: BurnUpData }) {
+  const pad = { l: 34, r: 96, t: 16, b: 26 }
+  const W = width - pad.l - pad.r
+  const H = height - pad.t - pad.b
+  const x = (day: number) => pad.l + (day / data.horizonDays) * W
+  const y = (frac: number) => pad.t + (1 - frac) * H
+
+  const hi = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.hiDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const lo = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.loDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const mid = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.midDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const cone = [
+    ...data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.hiDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`),
+    ...[...data.band].reverse().map((p) => `${x(p.loDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`),
+  ].join(' ')
+
+  return (
+    <svg width="100%" viewBox={`0 0 ${width} ${height}`} style={{ display: 'block' }}>
+      {[0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1].map((f) => (
+        <line key={f} x1={pad.l} x2={width - pad.r} y1={y(f)} y2={y(f)} stroke="var(--line-1)" strokeWidth="1" />
+      ))}
+      {/* scope */}
+      <line x1={pad.l} x2={width - pad.r} y1={y(1)} y2={y(1)} stroke="var(--line-2)" strokeWidth="1.5" />
+      <text x={pad.l} y={y(1) - 6} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        scope · {data.scope} {data.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}
+      </text>
+      {/* cone */}
+      <polygon points={cone} fill="var(--cone-fill)" />
+      <polyline points={hi} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.2" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
+      <polyline points={lo} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.2" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
+      <polyline points={mid} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.4" />
+      {/* origin = today, 0% of remaining scope */}
+      <circle cx={x(0)} cy={y(0)} r="3.5" fill="var(--cone-actual)" />
+      {/* today rule */}
+      <line x1={x(0)} x2={x(0)} y1={pad.t} y2={height - pad.b} stroke="var(--jade)" strokeWidth="1" />
+      <text x={x(0) + 5} y={pad.t + 10} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--jade-7)' }}>
+        today
+      </text>
+      {/* 80% band label */}
+      <text x={width - pad.r + 10} y={y(0.95)} style={{ font: '500 11.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+        80%
+      </text>
+      <text x={width - pad.r + 10} y={y(0.95) + 14} style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-2)' }}>
+        {data.rangeLabel}
+      </text>
+      {/* x labels */}
+      <text x={pad.l} y={height - 8} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        {data.startLabel}
+      </text>
+      <text x={width - pad.r - 34} y={height - 8} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        {data.endLabel}
+      </text>
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
 export interface RunwayBarMilestone {
   tone: 'ok' | 'warn'
   pos: number

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/board-screen.tsx

@@ -1,19 +1,29 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { COLUMNS, type BoardIssue, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { COLUMNS, type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Card, Tag, Badge, Tabs, IconButton, Input, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 import { EmptyState } from '../shell/states.js'
 import { GanttView } from './gantt-view.js'
 import { DepsGraph } from './deps-graph.js'
 
-// Board — kanban over inferred lifecycle, with Gantt/Dependencies stubs
+// Board — kanban over inferred lifecycle, with Gantt/Dependencies stubs.
-export function BoardScreen({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void }) {
+// `columns` defaults to demo fixtures; the shell passes real reconciled data
+// when gitea is configured. `loading` covers the first reconcile.
+export function BoardScreen({
+  onOpenIssue,
+  columns = COLUMNS,
+  loading = false,
+}: {
+  onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
+  columns?: BoardColumn[]
+  loading?: boolean
+}) {
   const [tab, setTab] = React.useState('board');
   const [query, setQuery] = React.useState('');
   const q = query.trim().toLowerCase();
-  const filtered = COLUMNS.map((c) => ({ ...c, issues: q ? c.issues.filter((i) => (i.title + ' #' + i.id).toLowerCase().includes(q)) : c.issues }));
+  const filtered = columns.map((c) => ({ ...c, issues: q ? c.issues.filter((i) => (i.title + ' #' + i.id).toLowerCase().includes(q)) : c.issues }));
   const anyMatch = filtered.some((c) => c.issues.length > 0);
-  const openCount = COLUMNS.reduce((n, c) => n + (c.id === 'done' ? 0 : c.issues.length), 0);
+  const openCount = columns.reduce((n, c) => n + (c.id === 'done' ? 0 : c.issues.length), 0);
 
   const IssueCard = ({ issue }: { issue: BoardIssue }) => (
     <div
@@ -56,7 +66,12 @@ export function BoardScreen({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) =>
         active={tab} onChange={setTab}
       />
       {tab === 'board' ? (
-        anyMatch ? (
+        loading ? (
+          <div style={{ flex: 1, display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', justifyContent: 'center', gap: 8, color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+            <Icon name="loader-circle" size={16} />
+            <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-small)' }}>Reconciling with gitea…</span>
+          </div>
+        ) : anyMatch ? (
         <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: 'repeat(5, 1fr)', gap: 12, alignItems: 'start', flex: 1, minHeight: 0, overflow: 'auto' }}>
           {filtered.map((col) => (
             <div key={col.id} style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 8 }}>
@@ -71,7 +86,7 @@ export function BoardScreen({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) =>
         ) : (
           <div style={{ flex: 1, border: '1px dashed var(--line-2)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-3)' }}>
             <EmptyState icon="search" title="Nothing by that name"
-              line={`The pot holds ${COLUMNS.reduce((n, c) => n + c.issues.length, 0)} issues; none of them answer to “${query.trim()}”.`} />
+              line={`The pot holds ${columns.reduce((n, c) => n + c.issues.length, 0)} issues; none of them answer to “${query.trim()}”.`} />
           </div>
         )
       ) : tab === 'deps' ? (

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/calibration-screen.tsx

@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { CALIBRATION } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { CALIBRATION, type CalibrationData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Badge, Card, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
-// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones
+// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones.
-export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
+// `data` (real fit from closed-issue actuals) overrides the demo fixture.
-  const c = CALIBRATION
+export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?: CalibrationData }) {
+  const c = data ?? CALIBRATION
 
   // scatter chart geometry
   const W = 420,
@@ -68,7 +69,11 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
             <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Calibration</h1>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.n} closed issues with estimates · evidence, not opinion</p>
           </div>
-          <Badge tone="ok" dot>curve active · n ≥ 20</Badge>
+          {c.active ? (
+            <Badge tone="ok" dot>curve active · n ≥ 20</Badge>
+          ) : (
+            <Badge tone="warn" dot>cold-start · {c.n}/20</Badge>
+          )}
         </header>
       </div>
 
@@ -170,7 +175,9 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
               <span style={{ font: '500 12.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.effect.banded}</span>
             </div>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-              You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.
+              {c.active
+                ? 'You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.'
+                : 'Not enough closed history yet — I’m forecasting from cold-start priors and widening the cone to stay honest. The curve takes over at 20.'}
             </p>
           </Card>
         </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/directives-screen.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+import React from 'react'
+
+import { DIRECTIVES, type DirectivePending, type DirectiveEntry } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { Card, Button, Badge, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+// Directive log — append-only ledger + the consequence diff (propose-approve)
+export function DirectivesScreen() {
+  const [pending, setPending] = React.useState<DirectivePending | null>(DIRECTIVES.pending)
+  const [entries, setEntries] = React.useState<DirectiveEntry[]>(DIRECTIVES.entries)
+
+  const resolve = (status: string) => {
+    setEntries((e) => [{
+      seq: pending!.seq, who: pending!.who, when: pending!.when, what: pending!.what, why: 'pilot demo on the 14th',
+      status, consequence: status === 'applied' ? '#78 +5d · Beta 80% Mar 5–14' : 'withdrawn before apply',
+    }, ...e]);
+    setPending(null);
+  };
+
+  const toneColor: Record<string, string> = { ok: 'var(--ok)', warn: 'var(--warn)', info: 'var(--info)', danger: 'var(--danger)' };
+  const statusBadge: Record<string, { tone: 'ok' | 'neutral' | 'info'; label: string }> = {
+    applied: { tone: 'ok', label: 'applied' },
+    withdrawn: { tone: 'neutral', label: 'withdrawn' },
+    superseded: { tone: 'info', label: 'superseded' },
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ maxWidth: 760, margin: '0 auto', display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
+      <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14 }}>
+        <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Directives</h1>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>append-only · JSONL in pm-state · who, when, what, why</p>
+      </header>
+
+      {pending ? (
+        <Card overline={`Awaiting your word · directive #00${pending.seq}`} title="Consequence diff" jade
+              footer={<>
+                <Button onClick={() => resolve('applied')}>Make it so</Button>
+                <Button variant="secondary" onClick={() => {}}>Amend</Button>
+                <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => resolve('withdrawn')}>Withdraw</Button>
+              </>}>
+          <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', margin: 0, color: 'var(--ink-2)' }}>
+              <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-body-strong)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>{pending.who}</span>
+              <span style={{ font: '400 11.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}> · {pending.when}</span>
+              <br />“{pending.what}”
+            </p>
+            <div style={{ borderTop: '1px solid var(--line-1)' }}>
+              {pending.diff.map((r) => (
+                <div key={r.change} style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 10, padding: '9px 0', borderBottom: '1px solid var(--line-1)' }}>
+                  <span style={{ width: 7, height: 7, borderRadius: '50%', background: toneColor[r.tone], flexShrink: 0 }}></span>
+                  <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-small)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>{r.change}</span>
+                  <span style={{ font: '400 12px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>
+                    {r.from} <span style={{ color: 'var(--ink-2)' }}>→</span> <span style={{ color: r.tone === 'warn' ? 'var(--warn)' : 'var(--ink-1)' }}>{r.to}</span>
+                  </span>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+              Cheap, as consequences go. Shall I make it so?
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        </Card>
+      ) : (
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 8, font: 'var(--text-small)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', padding: '2px 2px' }}>
+          <Icon name="circle-check" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ok)' }} />
+          Nothing awaits your word. Directives are given in chat; consequences appear here first.
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      <Card overline="The ledger" flush>
+        <div>
+          {entries.map((e, i) => {
+            const sb = statusBadge[e.status];
+            return (
+              <div key={e.seq} style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 14, padding: '14px 20px', borderTop: i === 0 ? 'none' : '1px solid var(--line-1)' }}>
+                <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', alignItems: 'center', gap: 6, flexShrink: 0 }}>
+                  <span style={{ font: '500 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>#00{e.seq}</span>
+                  <span style={{ width: 1, flex: 1, background: 'var(--line-1)' }}></span>
+                </div>
+                <div style={{ flex: 1, minWidth: 0, display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 5 }}>
+                  <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 8, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
+                    <span style={{
+                      width: 20, height: 20, borderRadius: '50%', background: 'var(--spruce-2)', color: 'var(--accent-text)',
+                      font: '600 8.5px/20px var(--font-sans)', textAlign: 'center', flexShrink: 0,
+                    }}>{e.who.split(' ').map((w: string) => w[0]).join('')}</span>
+                    <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-body-strong)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{e.who}</span>
+                    <span style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{e.when}</span>
+                    {e.why ? <span style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>· why: {e.why}</span> : null}
+                    <span style={{ marginLeft: 'auto' }}><Badge tone={sb.tone}>{sb.label}</Badge></span>
+                  </div>
+                  <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>“{e.what}”</p>
+                  <p style={{ font: '400 11.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>{e.consequence}</p>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+            );
+          })}
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>
+        Entries are never edited. Corrections are new entries — the ledger remembers everything, politely.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/focus-screen.tsx

@@ -1,14 +1,25 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
 import { FOCUS, type FocusIssue, type IssueRef, TODAY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { type ForecastView, type FocusView } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { BurnUpCone } from '../charts/chart.js'
 import { Badge, Button, Card, IconButton, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 /**
- * Morning service — the Now/Next/Later focus cards + the milestone burn-up cone.
+ * Morning service — the Now/Next/Later focus cards + the burn-up cone.
- * Data is fixture (data.js) until P2's scheduler + Monte Carlo feed it.
+ * `focus` (scheduler) and `forecast` (Monte Carlo) override the demo fixtures
+ * when gitea is configured; both fall back to the handoff demo otherwise.
  */
-export function FocusScreen({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void }) {
+export function FocusScreen({
+  onOpenIssue,
+  focus,
+  forecast,
+}: {
+  onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
+  focus?: FocusView
+  forecast?: ForecastView
+}) {
+  const view: FocusView = focus ?? { now: FOCUS.now, next: FOCUS.next, later: FOCUS.later }
   const FocusRow = ({ slot, issue, jade }: { slot: string; issue: FocusIssue; jade?: boolean }) => (
     <Card
       overline={slot}
@@ -79,19 +90,29 @@ export function FocusScreen({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) =>
       </header>
 
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1.4fr 1fr 1fr', gap: 14, alignItems: 'start' }}>
-        <FocusRow slot="Now" issue={FOCUS.now} jade />
+        {view.now ? <FocusRow slot="Now" issue={view.now} jade /> : null}
-        <FocusRow slot="Next" issue={FOCUS.next} />
+        {view.next ? <FocusRow slot="Next" issue={view.next} /> : null}
-        <FocusRow slot="Later" issue={FOCUS.later} />
+        {view.later ? <FocusRow slot="Later" issue={view.later} /> : null}
       </div>
 
       <Card
-        overline="Milestone · Beta"
+        overline={forecast ? 'Backlog · open scope' : 'Milestone · Beta'}
-        title={<>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 3–12</span></>}
+        title={
+          forecast ? (
+            <>80% of the open backlog lands by <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{forecast.rangeLabel}</span></>
+          ) : (
+            <>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 3–12</span></>
+          )
+        }
         actions={<IconButton icon="chart-line" label="Open runway" size="sm" />}
       >
-        <BurnUpCone />
+        <BurnUpCone data={forecast?.cone} />
         <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-          The cone has narrowed since Friday. I’m quietly pleased.
+          {forecast
+            ? forecast.coldStart
+              ? `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope. Cold-start priors — ${forecast.calibratedN}/20 estimated closes so far; the cone tightens as the team closes work.`
+              : `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope, calibrated on ${forecast.calibratedN} closed ${forecast.calibratedN === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} of your own.`
+            : 'The cone has narrowed since Friday. I’m quietly pleased.'}
         </p>
       </Card>
     </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/issue-screen.tsx

@@ -1,17 +1,33 @@
 // Issue detail — human intent (gitea) on the left, machine-derived (pm-state) on the right
-import React from 'react'
+import React, { useState } from 'react'
+
+import {
+  describeChange,
+  type EstimateLabel,
+  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
+  type IssueChange,
+  planIssueChange,
+  type PriorityLabel,
+  PRIORITY_LABELS,
+} from '@commitea/core'
 
 import { ISSUE_DETAIL, type IssueDetail, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+import { Badge, Button, Card, Dialog, Icon, Select, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+const NONE = '—'
 
 export function IssueScreen({
   issue,
   onBack,
   onOpenIssue,
+  canWrite = false,
+  onApplyChange,
 }: {
   issue: IssueRef
   onBack: () => void
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
+  canWrite?: boolean
+  onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
 }) {
   const det: IssueDetail = ISSUE_DETAIL[issue.id] || {
     state: 'triage',
@@ -40,6 +56,44 @@ export function IssueScreen({
     } as Record<string, { tone: 'warn' | 'neutral' | 'info' | 'ok'; label: string }>
   )[det.state] || { tone: 'neutral', label: det.state }
 
+  // ---- propose-approve write path (apply_changes) ----
+  const labels = issue.labels ?? []
+  const curEstimate = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('est/')) ?? ''
+  const curPriority = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('p/')) ?? ''
+  const [adjustOpen, setAdjustOpen] = useState(false)
+  const [estimate, setEstimate] = useState(curEstimate)
+  const [priority, setPriority] = useState(curPriority)
+  const [applying, setApplying] = useState(false)
+
+  const openAdjust = () => {
+    setEstimate(curEstimate)
+    setPriority(curPriority)
+    setAdjustOpen(true)
+  }
+
+  // the concrete changes this dialog would apply, one per axis that differs
+  const pendingChanges: IssueChange[] = []
+  if (estimate !== curEstimate)
+    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reestimate', issue: issue.id, estimate: (estimate || null) as EstimateLabel | null })
+  if (priority !== curPriority)
+    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reprioritize', issue: issue.id, priority: (priority || null) as PriorityLabel | null })
+
+  const diffs = pendingChanges.map((c) => describeChange(planIssueChange(labels, c)))
+
+  const apply = async () => {
+    if (!onApplyChange || pendingChanges.length === 0) return
+    setApplying(true)
+    try {
+      for (const c of pendingChanges) await onApplyChange(c)
+      setAdjustOpen(false)
+    } finally {
+      setApplying(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const estOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...ESTIMATE_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
+  const prioOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...PRIORITY_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
+
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       {/* breadcrumb + header */}
@@ -65,10 +119,69 @@ export function IssueScreen({
               </span>
             </div>
           </div>
-          <Button variant="secondary" icon="arrow-up-right">Open in Gitea</Button>
+          <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 8, flexShrink: 0 }}>
+            {canWrite ? (
+              <Button variant="secondary" icon="pencil" onClick={openAdjust}>
+                Adjust
+              </Button>
+            ) : null}
+            <Button variant="secondary" icon="arrow-up-right">Open in Gitea</Button>
+          </div>
         </header>
       </div>
 
+      <Dialog
+        open={adjustOpen}
+        onClose={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}
+        title="Adjust estimate & priority"
+        footer={
+          <>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}>
+              Cancel
+            </Button>
+            <Button onClick={apply} disabled={pendingChanges.length === 0 || applying}>
+              {applying ? 'Applying…' : 'Apply to gitea'}
+            </Button>
+          </>
+        }
+      >
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 14 }}>
+          <Select
+            label="Estimate"
+            options={estOptions}
+            value={estimate}
+            onChange={(e) => setEstimate(e.target.value)}
+          />
+          <Select
+            label="Priority"
+            options={prioOptions}
+            value={priority}
+            onChange={(e) => setPriority(e.target.value)}
+          />
+        </div>
+        <div style={{ marginTop: 14, minHeight: 40 }}>
+          {pendingChanges.length === 0 ? (
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>
+              No change yet — pick a different estimate or priority.
+            </p>
+          ) : (
+            <>
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '0 0 6px' }}>
+                Proposed label change
+              </p>
+              {diffs.map((d) => (
+                <div key={d} style={{ font: '500 13px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+                  {d}
+                </div>
+              ))}
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '8px 0 0' }}>
+                Writes the label to gitea and re-runs the plan. Nothing else changes.
+              </p>
+            </>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      </Dialog>
+
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 300px', gap: 16, alignItems: 'start' }}>
         {/* left: human intent */}
         <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/onboarding-screen.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
+import React from 'react'
+
+import logoIcon from '../../design/assets/logo-icon.png'
+import { Badge, Button, Icon, Input, Radio, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+// Onboarding / first connect — welcome → connect gitea → choose repo → bootstrap
+export function OnboardingScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: (dest: 'focus' | 'capture') => void }) {
+  const [step, setStep] = React.useState<number>(0)
+  const [conn, setConn] = React.useState<'idle' | 'testing' | 'ok'>('idle')
+  const [repo, setRepo] = React.useState('stephen/commitea')
+  const [boot, setBoot] = React.useState<number>(-1) // -1 idle, 0..2 running, 3 done
+
+  React.useEffect(() => {
+    if (conn !== 'testing') return
+    const t = setTimeout(() => setConn('ok'), 1100)
+    return () => clearTimeout(t)
+  }, [conn])
+
+  React.useEffect(() => {
+    if (boot < 0 || boot >= 3) return
+    const t = setTimeout(() => setBoot(boot + 1), 700)
+    return () => clearTimeout(t)
+  }, [boot])
+
+  const STEPS = ['Welcome', 'Connect', 'Repo', 'Bootstrap']
+  const BOOT_TASKS = [
+    'Create stephen/pm-state (the sidecar)',
+    'Apply the label schema to stephen/commitea',
+    'Install a webhook · endpoint :48731',
+  ]
+
+  const Frame = ({ children, footer }: { children: React.ReactNode; footer?: React.ReactNode }) => (
+    <div style={{
+      background: 'var(--surface-card)', border: '1px solid var(--line-1)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-3)',
+      boxShadow: 'var(--shadow-jade-line), var(--shadow-2)', padding: '30px 36px',
+      display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16, width: '100%',
+    }}>
+      {children}
+      {footer ? <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 8, justifyContent: 'flex-end', borderTop: '1px solid var(--line-1)', paddingTop: 16 }}>{footer}</div> : null}
+    </div>
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{
+      minHeight: '100vh', background: 'var(--surface-app)', display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column',
+      alignItems: 'center', justifyContent: 'center', padding: 32, gap: 22,
+    }} data-screen-label="onboarding">
+      {/* brand */}
+      <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 12 }}>
+        <img src={logoIcon} width="34" height="34" alt="" style={{ borderRadius: 8, display: 'block' }} />
+        <span style={{ font: '400 27px/1 var(--font-serif-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+          Commi<span style={{ color: 'var(--accent-text)' }}>Tea</span>
+        </span>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* stepper */}
+      <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 14 }}>
+        {STEPS.map((s, i) => (
+          <div key={s} style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 14 }}>
+            <span style={{ display: 'inline-flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 7 }}>
+              <span style={{
+                width: 20, height: 20, borderRadius: '50%', textAlign: 'center',
+                font: '500 10.5px/20px var(--font-mono)',
+                background: i < step ? 'var(--accent)' : i === step ? 'var(--spruce-2)' : 'var(--paper-2)',
+                color: i < step ? 'var(--ink-inverse)' : i === step ? 'var(--accent-text)' : 'var(--ink-3)',
+              }}>{i < step ? '✓' : i + 1}</span>
+              <span style={{ font: `${i === step ? 600 : 400} 12px/1 var(--font-sans)`, color: i === step ? 'var(--ink-1)' : 'var(--ink-3)' }}>{s}</span>
+            </span>
+            {i < STEPS.length - 1 ? <span style={{ width: 24, height: 1, background: 'var(--line-2)' }}></span> : null}
+          </div>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+
+      <div style={{ width: 'min(540px, 100%)' }}>
+        {step === 0 ? (
+          <Frame footer={<Button iconRight="arrow-right" onClick={() => setStep(1)}>Begin</Button>}>
+            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-title)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Good morning.</h1>
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent-lg)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+              I'm Reginald, your project manager. I interview you instead of making you fill in forms,
+              I forecast in honest ranges, and I never do the arithmetic myself — there's a scheduler for that.
+            </p>
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+              Your plans live in your own Gitea as ordinary issues and labels. Delete me and nothing human is lost.
+            </p>
+          </Frame>
+        ) : null}
+
+        {step === 1 ? (
+          <Frame footer={<>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setStep(0)}>Back</Button>
+            <Button iconRight="arrow-right" disabled={conn !== 'ok'} onClick={() => setStep(2)}>Continue</Button>
+          </>}>
+            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-title)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Your Gitea</h1>
+            <Input label="Base URL" icon="link" mono defaultValue="https://gitea.stephenmann.io" />
+            <Input label="Access token" icon="keyboard" mono type="password" defaultValue="ct_9f2e81c4a7d6" hint="Scopes: repo, issue. Nothing more." />
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 12 }}>
+              <Button variant="secondary" icon={conn === 'testing' ? 'loader-circle' : 'zap'} disabled={conn === 'testing'} onClick={() => setConn('testing')}>
+                {conn === 'testing' ? 'Ringing the bell…' : 'Test connection'}
+              </Button>
+              {conn === 'ok' ? <Badge tone="ok" dot>connected · 3 repos visible</Badge> : null}
+            </div>
+          </Frame>
+        ) : null}
+
+        {step === 2 ? (
+          <Frame footer={<>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setStep(1)}>Back</Button>
+            <Button iconRight="arrow-right" onClick={() => setStep(3)}>Continue</Button>
+          </>}>
+            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-title)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Which repo shall I manage?</h1>
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 8 }}>
+              {['stephen/commitea', 'stephen/novelpad', 'stephen/infra'].map((r: string) => (
+                <label key={r} style={{
+                  display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 10, padding: '10px 14px', cursor: 'pointer',
+                  background: repo === r ? 'var(--spruce-1)' : 'var(--paper-0)',
+                  border: `1px solid ${repo === r ? 'var(--spruce-3)' : 'var(--line-1)'}`,
+                  borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)',
+                }}>
+                  <Radio name="repo" checked={repo === r} onChange={() => setRepo(r)} />
+                  <Icon name="git-branch" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ink-3)' }} />
+                  <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>{r}</span>
+                </label>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>One to start. You can add more later in Settings.</p>
+          </Frame>
+        ) : null}
+
+        {step === 3 ? (
+          <Frame footer={boot === 3 ? <>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => onDone('focus')}>Just look around</Button>
+            <Button icon="sparkles" onClick={() => onDone('capture')}>Start a capture</Button>
+          </> : <>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setStep(2)} disabled={boot >= 0}>Back</Button>
+            <Button disabled={boot >= 0} onClick={() => setBoot(0)}>Make it so</Button>
+          </>}>
+            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-title)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>
+              {boot === 3 ? 'All set.' : 'With your approval'}
+            </h1>
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 10 }}>
+              {BOOT_TASKS.map((t: string, i: number) => (
+                <div key={t} style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 10 }}>
+                  <span style={{ display: 'inline-flex', color: boot > i ? 'var(--ok)' : boot === i ? 'var(--warn)' : 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+                    <Icon name={boot > i ? 'circle-check' : boot === i ? 'loader-circle' : 'circle-dashed'} size={15} />
+                  </span>
+                  <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', color: boot > i ? 'var(--ink-1)' : 'var(--ink-2)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{t}</span>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+              <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexWrap: 'wrap', gap: 5, paddingLeft: 25 }}>
+                {['est/1d', 'est/2d', 'est/3d', 'est/5d', 'est/8d', 'p/1', 'p/2', 'p/3', 'p/4', 'deadline/hard'].map((l: string) => <Tag key={l} label={l} />)}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            {boot === 3 ? (
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+                The pot is empty. Tell me what you're planning and I'll draw up the tickets.
+              </p>
+            ) : (
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>
+                No bot comments, no body frontmatter, no synthetic issues — ever. Labels are the only footprint.
+              </p>
+            )}
+          </Frame>
+        ) : null}
+      </div>
+
+      <span style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>first run · everything reversible</span>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/runway-screen.tsx

@@ -8,15 +8,22 @@ import { RUNWAY, CAPACITY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 export function RunwayScreen({
   onOpenCalibration,
   onOpenMilestone,
+  calibration,
 }: {
   onOpenCalibration: () => void
   onOpenMilestone: () => void
+  calibration?: { n: number; coldStart: boolean }
 }) {
+  const calibNote = calibration
+    ? calibration.coldStart
+      ? `cold-start priors · ${calibration.n}/20 closed issues estimated`
+      : `calibrated on ${calibration.n} closed ${calibration.n === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}`
+    : 'calibrated on 27 closed issues'
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14 }}>
         <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Runway</h1>
-        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · calibrated on 27 closed issues</p>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · {calibNote}</p>
       </header>
 
       <Card overline="Milestones" flush>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/settings-screen.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+import React from 'react'
+
+import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, IconButton, Input, Radio, Select, Switch, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+// Settings — gitea connection, sync, model roles, labels, rituals, appearance
+export function SettingsScreen({ dark, setDark }: { dark: boolean; setDark: (v: boolean) => void }) {
+  const [webhooks, setWebhooks] = React.useState(true)
+  const [reconcile, setReconcile] = React.useState(true)
+  const [poll, setPoll] = React.useState(true)
+  const [nag, setNag] = React.useState(true)
+
+  const Row = ({ children, style }: { children: React.ReactNode; style?: React.CSSProperties }) => (
+    <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 12, ...style }}>{children}</div>
+  )
+  const Note = ({ children }: { children: React.ReactNode }) => (
+    <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>{children}</p>
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <div style={{ maxWidth: 720, margin: '0 auto', display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
+      <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14 }}>
+        <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Settings</h1>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>config lives in pm-state · versioned, portable</p>
+      </header>
+
+      <Card overline="Gitea" title="Connection">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 14 }}>
+          <Input label="Base URL" icon="link" mono defaultValue="https://gitea.stephenmann.io" />
+          <Input label="Access token" icon="keyboard" mono type="password" defaultValue="ct_9f2e81c4a7d6" hint="Scopes: repo, issue. Nothing more." />
+          <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 8 }}>
+            <span style={{ font: '600 13px/1.2 var(--font-sans)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>Managed repos</span>
+            <Row style={{ padding: '8px 12px', background: 'var(--paper-0)', border: '1px solid var(--line-1)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)' }}>
+              <Icon name="git-branch" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ink-3)' }} />
+              <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>stephen/commitea</span>
+              <Badge tone="ok" dot>syncing</Badge>
+              <IconButton icon="x" label="Stop managing" size="sm" />
+            </Row>
+            <Row style={{ padding: '8px 12px', background: 'var(--paper-0)', border: '1px solid var(--line-1)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)' }}>
+              <Icon name="layers" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ink-3)' }} />
+              <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>stephen/pm-state</span>
+              <Badge>sidecar</Badge>
+            </Row>
+            <Note>The sidecar holds machine-derived state only. Delete it and resync — no truth is lost.</Note>
+            <Button variant="secondary" size="sm" icon="plus" style={{ alignSelf: 'flex-start' }}>Add repo</Button>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card overline="Sync" title="Staying current">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
+          <Row>
+            <Switch label="Webhooks while running" checked={webhooks} onChange={(e) => setWebhooks(e.target.checked)} />
+            <span style={{ font: '400 11.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', marginLeft: 'auto' }}>endpoint :48731 · healthy</span>
+          </Row>
+          <Switch label="Full reconcile on launch" checked={reconcile} onChange={(e) => setReconcile(e.target.checked)} />
+          <Row>
+            <Switch label="Poll fallback" checked={poll} onChange={(e) => setPoll(e.target.checked)} />
+            <div style={{ marginLeft: 'auto', width: 140 }}>
+              <Select options={[{ value: '2', label: 'every 2 min' }, { value: '5', label: 'every 5 min' }, { value: '15', label: 'every 15 min' }]} defaultValue="5" />
+            </div>
+          </Row>
+          <Note>last reconcile 3.2s · 500 issues · nothing lost</Note>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card overline="Models" title="The router">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 14 }}>
+          <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 1fr', gap: '12px 14px' }}>
+            <Select label="Prose & rituals" options={[
+              { value: 'gemma-4b', label: 'gemma-4b · local' },
+              { value: 'qwen-7b', label: 'qwen-7b · local' },
+            ]} defaultValue="gemma-4b" />
+            <Input label="Base URL" mono defaultValue="http://localhost:1234/v1" />
+            <Select label="Decomposition & negotiation" options={[
+              { value: 'qwen-72b', label: 'qwen-72b · lm-studio box' },
+              { value: 'gpt-4o', label: 'gpt-4o · OpenAI API' },
+            ]} defaultValue="qwen-72b" />
+            <Input label="Base URL" mono defaultValue="http://10.0.0.42:1234/v1" />
+          </div>
+          <Row>
+            <span style={{ font: '400 11.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>hot memory ≤ 2k tokens · math is never delegated to either</span>
+          </Row>
+          <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+            The small one writes my standup; the large one argues with your estimates. Neither is allowed near the arithmetic.
+          </p>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card overline="Labels" title="Schema">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 10 }}>
+          <Row style={{ flexWrap: 'wrap', gap: 6 }}>
+            {['est/1d', 'est/2d', 'est/3d', 'est/5d', 'est/8d'].map((l) => <Tag key={l} label={l} />)}
+          </Row>
+          <Row style={{ flexWrap: 'wrap', gap: 6 }}>
+            {['p/1', 'p/2', 'p/3', 'p/4'].map((l) => <Tag key={l} label={l} />)}
+            <Tag label="deadline/hard" />
+          </Row>
+          <Note>Fixed sets, human-meaningful, visible in gitea. Not configurable — that is rather the point.</Note>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card overline="Rituals" title="Reginald's calendar">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
+          <Row>
+            <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>Morning standup</span>
+            <div style={{ marginLeft: 'auto', width: 120 }}>
+              <Select options={[{ value: '0630', label: '06:30' }, { value: '0700', label: '07:00' }, { value: '0800', label: '08:00' }]} defaultValue="0700" />
+            </div>
+          </Row>
+          <Row>
+            <Switch label="Stale-blocker nagging" checked={nag} onChange={(e) => setNag(e.target.checked)} />
+            <div style={{ marginLeft: 'auto', width: 140 }}>
+              <Select options={[{ value: '2', label: 'after 2 days' }, { value: '3', label: 'after 3 days' }, { value: '5', label: 'after 5 days' }]} defaultValue="3" />
+            </div>
+          </Row>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card overline="Appearance" title="Service">
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 20 }}>
+          <Radio name="theme" label="Morning (light)" checked={!dark} onChange={() => setDark(false)} />
+          <Radio name="theme" label="Evening (dark)" checked={dark} onChange={() => setDark(true)} />
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
+      <Card>
+        <Row>
+          <div style={{ flex: 1 }}>
+            <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-body-strong)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>Forget this gitea</div>
+            <Note>Removes the connection and the local cache. Gitea itself is untouched.</Note>
+          </div>
+          <Button variant="danger">Forget</Button>
+        </Row>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/shell/app-shell.tsx

@@ -1,16 +1,23 @@
 import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
 import logoIcon from '../../design/assets/logo-icon.png'
+import type { IssueChange } from '@commitea/core'
+
 import type { IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { backlogCalibration, forecastBacklog, issuesToBoardColumns, scheduleFocus } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
+import { useBacklog } from '../../lib/use-backlog.js'
 import { PrimitivesGallery } from '../gallery.js'
 import { BoardScreen } from '../screens/board-screen.js'
 import { CalibrationScreen } from '../screens/calibration-screen.js'
 import { CaptureScreen } from '../screens/capture-screen.js'
+import { DirectivesScreen } from '../screens/directives-screen.js'
 import { FocusScreen } from '../screens/focus-screen.js'
 import { InboxScreen } from '../screens/inbox-screen.js'
 import { IssueScreen } from '../screens/issue-screen.js'
 import { MilestoneScreen } from '../screens/milestone-screen.js'
+import { OnboardingScreen } from '../screens/onboarding-screen.js'
 import { RunwayScreen } from '../screens/runway-screen.js'
+import { SettingsScreen } from '../screens/settings-screen.js'
 import { StandupScreen } from '../screens/standup-screen.js'
 import { Icon, Switch } from '../ui/index.js'
 import { ChatPanel } from './chat-panel.js'
@@ -80,6 +87,17 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const [offline, setOffline] = useState(false)
   const [issue, setIssue] = useState<IssueRef | null>(null)
   const [readIds, setReadIds] = useState<number[]>([])
+  const [backlog, refetchBacklog] = useBacklog()
+  const boardColumns =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? issuesToBoardColumns(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const focus =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? scheduleFocus(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const calibration =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? backlogCalibration(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const forecast =
+    backlog.status === 'ready'
+      ? (forecastBacklog(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, new Date(), calibration?.model) ?? undefined)
+      : undefined
 
   useEffect(() => {
     document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme', dark ? 'dark' : 'light')
@@ -91,6 +109,17 @@ export function AppShell() {
     setView('issue')
   }
 
+  // The write path: apply through the bridge, reflect the new labels on the open
+  // issue immediately, and re-reconcile so the board + forecast catch up.
+  const applyChange = async (change: IssueChange) => {
+    const res = await window.commitea.gitea.applyChange(change)
+    if (res.ok) {
+      setIssue((cur) => (cur && cur.id === res.issue.number ? { ...cur, labels: res.issue.labels } : cur))
+      refetchBacklog()
+    }
+    return res
+  }
+
   const NAV: NavEntry[] = [
     { id: 'standup', label: 'Standup', icon: 'sun' },
     { id: 'focus', label: 'Morning service', icon: 'coffee' },
@@ -150,20 +179,27 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const renderScreen = () => {
     switch (view) {
       case 'focus':
-        return <FocusScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
+        return <FocusScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} focus={focus} forecast={forecast} />
       case 'standup':
         return <StandupScreen onBegin={() => setView('focus')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
       case 'board':
-        return <BoardScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
+        return (
+          <BoardScreen
+            onOpenIssue={openIssue}
+            columns={boardColumns}
+            loading={backlog.status === 'loading'}
+          />
+        )
       case 'runway':
         return (
           <RunwayScreen
             onOpenCalibration={() => setView('calibration')}
             onOpenMilestone={() => setView('milestone')}
+            calibration={calibration ? { n: calibration.model.n, coldStart: calibration.model.coldStart } : undefined}
           />
         )
       case 'calibration':
-        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} />
+        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} data={calibration?.data} />
       case 'milestone':
         return <MilestoneScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
       case 'inbox':
@@ -177,9 +213,19 @@ export function AppShell() {
         )
       case 'capture':
         return <CaptureScreen onDone={() => setView('focus')} />
+      case 'directives':
+        return <DirectivesScreen />
+      case 'settings':
+        return <SettingsScreen dark={dark} setDark={setDark} />
       case 'issue':
         return issue ? (
-          <IssueScreen issue={issue} onBack={() => setView(prevView)} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
+          <IssueScreen
+            issue={issue}
+            onBack={() => setView(prevView)}
+            onOpenIssue={openIssue}
+            canWrite={backlog.status === 'ready'}
+            onApplyChange={applyChange}
+          />
         ) : null
       case 'states':
         return <StatesScreen onCapture={() => setView('capture')} />
@@ -190,6 +236,11 @@ export function AppShell() {
     }
   }
 
+  // First run is full-window — no rail, no chat panel
+  if (view === 'firstrun') {
+    return <OnboardingScreen onDone={(dest) => setView(dest)} />
+  }
+
   return (
     <div
       data-screen-label={`app-${view}`}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/data/fixtures.ts

@@ -472,3 +472,57 @@ export const ISSUE_DETAIL: Record<number, IssueDetail> = {
     note: 'It blocks #91 and #92. I’d take it first — the critical path agrees with me.',
   },
 }
+
+// ---- Directives ----
+
+export interface DirectiveDiffRow {
+  tone: 'ok' | 'warn' | 'info' | 'danger'
+  change: string
+  from: string
+  to: string
+}
+
+export interface DirectivePending {
+  seq: number
+  who: string
+  when: string
+  what: string
+  diff: DirectiveDiffRow[]
+}
+
+export interface DirectiveEntry {
+  seq: number
+  who: string
+  when: string
+  what: string
+  why: string
+  status: string
+  consequence: string
+}
+
+export interface DirectivesData {
+  pending: DirectivePending | null
+  entries: DirectiveEntry[]
+}
+
+export const DIRECTIVES: DirectivesData = {
+  pending: {
+    seq: 7,
+    who: 'Stephen',
+    when: 'today 09:12',
+    what: 'Pilots before calibration — push #78 to next week.',
+    diff: [
+      { tone: 'info', change: '#78 Calibration store', from: 'this week', to: 'wk of Feb 23' },
+      { tone: 'warn', change: 'Beta · 80% window', from: 'Mar 3–12', to: 'Mar 5–14' },
+      { tone: 'ok', change: "Today's plan", from: '#87', to: '#87 · unchanged' },
+    ],
+  },
+  entries: [
+    { seq: 6, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Feb 8 · 16:40', what: 'Ana takes nothing new until #84 lands.', why: 'context thrash', status: 'applied', consequence: 'WIP capped · v1.0 unmoved' },
+    { seq: 5, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Feb 6 · 09:03', what: 'Ship Beta a week early.', why: 'board meeting', status: 'withdrawn', consequence: '80% would need scope −9d — withdrawn after diff' },
+    { seq: 4, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Feb 3 · 11:21', what: 'deadline/hard on Pilot-ready.', why: 'contract date', status: 'applied', consequence: 'label applied · runway flag raised' },
+    { seq: 3, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Jan 28 · 08:47', what: 'Webhook work ahead of UI polish.', why: '', status: 'applied', consequence: '#91 +2 ranks · Beta unmoved' },
+    { seq: 2, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Jan 20 · 14:02', what: 'Estimates in days, never hours.', why: 'sanity', status: 'applied', consequence: 'label schema est/* confirmed' },
+    { seq: 1, who: 'Stephen', when: 'Jan 19 · 09:00', what: 'CommiTea manages its own backlog.', why: 'dogfood', status: 'applied', consequence: 'stephen/commitea under management' },
+  ],
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/global.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+import type {
+  DependencyEdge,
+  GiteaIssue,
+  GiteaMilestone,
+  IssueChange,
+  LabelPlan,
+  LifecycleEvent,
+} from '@commitea/core'
+
+/** The result of a write through the bridge. */
+export type ApplyChangeResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' }
+  | { ok: true; plan: LabelPlan; issue: GiteaIssue }
+
+/** The gitea bridge exposed by the preload over IPC (main-process backed). */
+export interface GiteaBridge {
+  status(): Promise<{ configured: boolean; repo: string | null }>
+  reconcile(): Promise<{
+    configured: boolean
+    issues: GiteaIssue[]
+    milestones: GiteaMilestone[]
+    deps: DependencyEdge[]
+    /** Normalized lifecycle events keyed by issue number. */
+    timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+  }>
+  getIssue(index: number): Promise<GiteaIssue | null>
+  applyChange(change: IssueChange): Promise<ApplyChangeResult>
+}
+
+declare global {
+  interface Window {
+    commitea: {
+      platform: string
+      gitea: GiteaBridge
+    }
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/backlog.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,234 @@
+import {
+  type CalibrationModel,
+  type CalibrationSample,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
+  type DependencyEdge,
+  fitCalibration,
+  forecast,
+  type GiteaIssue,
+  inferLifecycle,
+  type LifecycleColumn,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  type LifecycleInference,
+  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
+  schedule,
+  type ScheduledItem,
+  selectFocus,
+  toDurationModel,
+} from '@commitea/core'
+
+import { type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type CalibrationData, type FocusIssue } from '../data/fixtures.js'
+import { type BurnUpData, buildBurnUpData } from './dates.js'
+
+type Timelines = Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+
+/** Infer every issue's lifecycle once; callers index by issue number. */
+function inferAll(issues: GiteaIssue[], timelines: Timelines, asOf: Date): Map<number, LifecycleInference> {
+  return new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, inferLifecycle(i, timelines[i.number] ?? [], asOf)]))
+}
+
+const COLUMN_LABELS: Record<LifecycleColumn, string> = {
+  diagnosis: 'Diagnosis',
+  triage: 'Triage',
+  steeping: 'Steeping',
+  review: 'In review',
+  done: 'Done',
+}
+
+const COLUMN_ORDER: LifecycleColumn[] = ['diagnosis', 'triage', 'steeping', 'review', 'done']
+
+function initials(login: string): string {
+  return login.slice(0, 2).toUpperCase()
+}
+
+/**
+ * Shape real gitea issues into the Board's five columns via lifecycle inference
+ * (#5). Steeping / In-review are now populated from the event stream (first
+ * commit ref → steeping, first PR ref → review); the `days` badge is the
+ * steeping age in working days.
+ */
+export function issuesToBoardColumns(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): BoardColumn[] {
+  const inf = inferAll(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  return COLUMN_ORDER.map((key) => ({
+    id: key,
+    label: COLUMN_LABELS[key],
+    issues: issues
+      .filter((i) => inf.get(i.number)!.column === key)
+      .map((i): BoardIssue => {
+        const li = inf.get(i.number)!
+        return {
+          id: i.number,
+          title: i.title,
+          labels: i.labels,
+          who: i.assignee ? initials(i.assignee) : '·',
+          days: li.steepingDays != null ? `${li.steepingDays}d` : undefined,
+        }
+      }),
+  }))
+}
+
+export interface FocusView {
+  now: FocusIssue | null
+  next: FocusIssue | null
+  later: FocusIssue | null
+}
+
+function toFocusIssue(item: ScheduledItem | null, inf?: Map<number, LifecycleInference>): FocusIssue | null {
+  if (!item) return null
+  const steepingDays = inf?.get(item.number)?.steepingDays ?? null
+  return {
+    id: item.number,
+    title: item.title,
+    labels: item.labels,
+    rationale: item.rationale,
+    steeping: steepingDays != null ? `${steepingDays}d` : undefined,
+  }
+}
+
+function toSchedulable(issues: GiteaIssue[]) {
+  return issues
+    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    .map((i) => ({
+      number: i.number,
+      title: i.title,
+      labels: i.labels,
+      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
+      priority: i.facts.priority,
+    }))
+}
+
+export interface ForecastView {
+  scope: number
+  cone: BurnUpData
+  p80Label: string
+  rangeLabel: string
+  /** true while the forecast still runs on code priors (calibration not yet trusted). */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Closed-with-estimate issues feeding calibration so far. */
+  calibratedN: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo forecast over the open backlog, mapped onto a calendar-anchored
+ * burn-up cone. When a calibration model is supplied and past cold-start, its
+ * fitted params drive the sim. Returns null when there's nothing to forecast.
+ * `today` is injectable for tests.
+ */
+export function forecastBacklog(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  today: Date = new Date(),
+  calibration?: CalibrationModel,
+): ForecastView | null {
+  const model = calibration ? toDurationModel(calibration) : undefined
+  const f = forecast(toSchedulable(issues), deps, model ? { model } : {})
+  const cone = buildBurnUpData(f, today)
+  if (!cone) return null
+  return {
+    scope: f.scope,
+    cone,
+    p80Label: cone.p80Label,
+    rangeLabel: cone.rangeLabel,
+    coldStart: f.coldStart,
+    calibratedN: calibration?.n ?? 0,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Fit the calibration model from the closed backlog's inferred actuals (#1). */
+export function calibrateBacklog(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): CalibrationModel {
+  return fitCalibration(calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf))
+}
+
+/** Calibration model + its screen view in one pass over the closed backlog. */
+export function backlogCalibration(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): { model: CalibrationModel; data: CalibrationData } {
+  const samples = calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  const model = fitCalibration(samples)
+  return { model, data: calibrationData(model, samples, issues) }
+}
+
+const pctFromMu = (mu: number) => Math.round((Math.exp(mu) - 1) * 100)
+
+/**
+ * Shape the calibration model + its samples into the screen's view. Buckets and
+ * people only earn a bias once their sample clears the fit floor; everything
+ * degrades honestly on a thin (cold-start) dataset.
+ */
+export function calibrationData(
+  model: CalibrationModel,
+  samples: CalibrationSample[],
+  openIssues: GiteaIssue[],
+): CalibrationData {
+  const labels = PRIOR_BUCKETS.map((b) => {
+    const inBucket = samples.filter((s) => s.bucket === b)
+    const fit = model.byBucket[b]
+    const mu = fit ? fit.mu : model.global.mu
+    return {
+      label: `est/${b}d`,
+      n: fit ? fit.n : inBucket.length,
+      median: inBucket.length ? `${(b * Math.exp(mu)).toFixed(1)}d` : '—',
+      bias: fit ? pctFromMu(fit.mu) : null,
+    }
+  })
+
+  const people = Object.entries(model.byPerson).map(([who, pb]) => ({
+    who,
+    n: pb.n,
+    bias: pctFromMu(model.global.mu + pb.biasMu),
+    note: '',
+  }))
+
+  const openEst = openIssues
+    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    .reduce((sum, i) => sum + (i.facts.estimateDays ?? 2), 0)
+  const effect = model.coldStart
+    ? { raw: `${model.n}/${COLD_START_THRESHOLD} estimated closes`, banded: 'cold-start priors', p50: '—' }
+    : {
+        raw: `${openEst}d estimated`,
+        banded: `×${Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)} median drift`,
+        p50: `≈${Math.round(openEst * Math.exp(model.global.mu))}d`,
+      }
+
+  return {
+    n: model.n,
+    active: !model.coldStart,
+    labels,
+    people,
+    scatter: samples.map((s) => [s.estimateDays, s.actualWorkingDays]),
+    fit: Number(Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)),
+    effect,
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Run the deterministic scheduler over the open backlog and take the top three
+ * as Now/Next/Later. Estimates + priority come from label facts; dependency
+ * edges come from gitea's native issue dependencies.
+ */
+export function scheduleFocus(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): FocusView {
+  const plan = schedule(toSchedulable(issues), deps)
+  const f = selectFocus(plan)
+  const inf = inferAll(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  return {
+    now: toFocusIssue(f.now, inf),
+    next: toFocusIssue(f.next, inf),
+    later: toFocusIssue(f.later, inf),
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/dates.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import type { Forecast } from '@commitea/core'
+
+const MONTHS = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec']
+
+/** Advance `base` by whole working days (skipping Sat/Sun). Fractions round to nearest day. */
+export function addWorkingDays(base: Date, workingDays: number): Date {
+  const d = new Date(base.getFullYear(), base.getMonth(), base.getDate())
+  let remaining = Math.max(0, Math.round(workingDays))
+  while (remaining > 0) {
+    d.setDate(d.getDate() + 1)
+    const day = d.getDay()
+    if (day !== 0 && day !== 6) remaining -= 1
+  }
+  return d
+}
+
+/** "Mar 6" */
+export function formatShort(d: Date): string {
+  return `${MONTHS[d.getMonth()]} ${d.getDate()}`
+}
+
+/** "Feb 24 – Mar 6" (collapses the month when both ends share it → "Mar 3–12"). */
+export function formatRange(lo: Date, hi: Date): string {
+  if (lo.getMonth() === hi.getMonth()) return `${MONTHS[lo.getMonth()]} ${lo.getDate()}–${hi.getDate()}`
+  return `${formatShort(lo)} – ${formatShort(hi)}`
+}
+
+export interface BurnUpBandPoint {
+  fraction: number
+  loDay: number
+  midDay: number
+  hiDay: number
+}
+
+/** Chart-ready geometry + calendar labels derived from a Monte Carlo forecast. */
+export interface BurnUpData {
+  scope: number
+  horizonDays: number
+  band: BurnUpBandPoint[]
+  p80Day: number
+  p80Label: string
+  rangeLabel: string
+  startLabel: string
+  endLabel: string
+}
+
+/**
+ * Map a working-day forecast onto a calendar-anchored burn-up cone. `today`
+ * anchors day 0; the cone emanates from (today, 0) and widens to the right.
+ * The historical "actual" polyline behind today awaits lifecycle events (#5).
+ */
+export function buildBurnUpData(f: Forecast, today: Date): BurnUpData | null {
+  if (f.scope === 0 || f.curve.length === 0) return null
+  const last = f.curve[f.curve.length - 1]
+  const horizonDays = Math.max(1, Math.ceil(last.p90Day * 1.05))
+  const band: BurnUpBandPoint[] = [
+    { fraction: 0, loDay: 0, midDay: 0, hiDay: 0 },
+    ...f.curve.map((p) => ({ fraction: p.fraction, loDay: p.p10Day, midDay: p.p50Day, hiDay: p.p90Day })),
+  ]
+  return {
+    scope: f.scope,
+    horizonDays,
+    band,
+    p80Day: f.p80Day,
+    p80Label: formatShort(addWorkingDays(today, f.p80Day)),
+    rangeLabel: formatRange(addWorkingDays(today, f.p50Day), addWorkingDays(today, last.p90Day)),
+    startLabel: formatShort(today),
+    endLabel: formatShort(addWorkingDays(today, horizonDays)),
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/use-backlog.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+
+import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone, LifecycleEvent } from '@commitea/core'
+
+export type BacklogState =
+  | { status: 'loading' }
+  | { status: 'unconfigured' }
+  | { status: 'error'; message: string }
+  | {
+      status: 'ready'
+      issues: GiteaIssue[]
+      milestones: GiteaMilestone[]
+      deps: DependencyEdge[]
+      timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+    }
+
+/**
+ * Reconcile the managed repo through the main-process bridge. Runs once on
+ * mount; the returned `refetch` re-reconciles after a write so the board and
+ * forecast reflect the change. `unconfigured` means no token — the UI falls
+ * back to demo fixtures. Errors (network, bad token) surface as `error`.
+ */
+export function useBacklog(): [BacklogState, () => void] {
+  const [state, setState] = useState<BacklogState>({ status: 'loading' })
+  const [nonce, setNonce] = useState(0)
+  const refetch = useCallback(() => setNonce((n) => n + 1), [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    window.commitea.gitea
+      .reconcile()
+      .then((r) => {
+        if (!alive) return
+        setState(
+          r.configured
+            ? {
+                status: 'ready',
+                issues: r.issues,
+                milestones: r.milestones,
+                deps: r.deps,
+                timelines: r.timelines,
+              }
+            : { status: 'unconfigured' },
+        )
+      })
+      .catch((e: unknown) => {
+        if (alive) setState({ status: 'error', message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) })
+      })
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+    }
+  }, [nonce])
+
+  return [state, refetch]
+}

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+import type { LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import {
+  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  type CalibrationSample,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
+  fitCalibration,
+  toDurationModel,
+} from './calibration-v0.js'
+
+function sample(over: Partial<CalibrationSample> = {}): CalibrationSample {
+  return { issue: 1, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 2, bucket: 2, person: null, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('fitCalibration', () => {
+  it('is cold-start below the threshold and reports the honest n', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration([sample(), sample({ actualWorkingDays: 4 })])
+    expect(m.n).toBe(2)
+    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('flips off cold-start at the threshold', () => {
+    const many = Array.from({ length: COLD_START_THRESHOLD }, (_, i) =>
+      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
+    )
+    const m = fitCalibration(many)
+    expect(m.n).toBe(COLD_START_THRESHOLD)
+    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('recovers the global median ratio (mu = mean log-ratio)', () => {
+    // every actual is exactly 2x its estimate → mu = ln 2
+    const m = fitCalibration(Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 4 })))
+    expect(m.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(Math.log(2), 6)
+  })
+
+  it('fits a bucket only once it clears the floor', () => {
+    const twos = Array.from({ length: CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR }, (_, i) =>
+      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
+    )
+    const oneThin = [sample({ issue: 99, estimateDays: 5, actualWorkingDays: 9, bucket: 5 })]
+    const m = fitCalibration([...twos, ...oneThin])
+    expect(m.byBucket[2]?.n).toBe(CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR)
+    expect(m.byBucket[5]).toBeUndefined() // only 1 sample, below floor
+  })
+
+  it('drops non-positive estimates/actuals', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration([sample({ actualWorkingDays: 0 }), sample({ estimateDays: 0 }), sample()])
+    expect(m.n).toBe(1)
+  })
+
+  it('derives a per-person bias relative to global', () => {
+    // one person consistently runs longer than the mean
+    const base = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, actualWorkingDays: 2, person: 'ak' }))
+    const slow = Array.from({ length: 3 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: 100 + i, actualWorkingDays: 6, person: 'sm' }))
+    const m = fitCalibration([...base, ...slow])
+    expect(m.byPerson['sm'].biasMu).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+    expect(m.byPerson['ak'].biasMu).toBeLessThan(0)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('toDurationModel', () => {
+  it('projects the fit down to the params forecast needs', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration(
+      Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 })),
+    )
+    const dm = toDurationModel(m)
+    expect(dm.coldStart).toBe(false)
+    expect(dm.byBucket[2].mu).toBeCloseTo(m.byBucket[2].mu, 6)
+    expect(dm.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(m.global.mu, 6)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('calibrationSamples', () => {
+  const asOf = new Date('2026-02-01T00:00:00Z')
+
+  function issue(over: Partial<GiteaIssue>): GiteaIssue {
+    const labels = over.labels ?? []
+    return {
+      number: 1,
+      title: '#1',
+      body: '',
+      state: 'closed',
+      labels,
+      facts: extractLabelFacts(labels),
+      milestone: null,
+      assignee: null,
+      assignees: [],
+      createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
+      updatedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
+      closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
+      url: '',
+      ...over,
+    }
+  }
+
+  const events = (i: number): Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]> => ({
+    [i]: [{ type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z' }, { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' }],
+  })
+
+  it('samples closed, estimated issues with a resolvable actual', () => {
+    const i = issue({ number: 7, labels: ['est/2d'], assignee: 'sm', closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' })
+    const [s] = calibrationSamples([i], events(7), asOf)
+    expect(s.issue).toBe(7)
+    expect(s.estimateDays).toBe(2)
+    expect(s.bucket).toBe(2)
+    expect(s.person).toBe('sm')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Mon 2026-01-12 = Wed,Thu,Fri = 3 working days
+    expect(s.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+
+  it('skips open issues and closed ones without an estimate', () => {
+    const open = issue({ number: 8, state: 'open', labels: ['est/2d'], closedAt: null })
+    const noEst = issue({ number: 9, labels: [] })
+    expect(calibrationSamples([open, noEst], { ...events(8), ...events(9) }, asOf)).toEqual([])
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+/**
+ * Calibration, v0 — fit the team's own estimate-vs-actual history so the
+ * forecast stops guessing (D3). The "actual" is the working time lifecycle
+ * inference derives from git events (#5), never manual tracking. Fit a
+ * lognormal on log(actual / estimate) globally and per estimate bucket; until
+ * the sample clears the cold-start threshold, the forecast keeps using the
+ * code-resident priors and this model just reports progress toward it.
+ */
+
+import { type DurationModel, type LognormalPrior, nearestBucket } from '../forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+import { inferLifecycle, type LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+
+/** Global sample size at which the fit takes over from the cold-start priors. */
+export const COLD_START_THRESHOLD = 20
+/** Minimum per-bucket sample before that bucket earns its own fit. */
+export const CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR = 3
+/** Fallback spread when a group is too small to estimate one. */
+const DEFAULT_SIGMA = 0.4
+
+/** One closed issue's estimate vs its inferred actual. */
+export interface CalibrationSample {
+  issue: number
+  estimateDays: number
+  actualWorkingDays: number
+  bucket: number
+  person: string | null
+}
+
+export interface BucketFit extends LognormalPrior {
+  n: number
+}
+
+export interface PersonBias {
+  /** Additive to global mu (log space). */
+  biasMu: number
+  n: number
+}
+
+export interface CalibrationModel {
+  /** Closed issues with an estimate + a resolvable actual. */
+  n: number
+  /** true while n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD — forecast keeps the code priors. */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  global: LognormalPrior
+  byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit>
+  byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias>
+}
+
+function mean(xs: number[]): number {
+  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length
+}
+
+/** Sample standard deviation; falls back to DEFAULT_SIGMA below 2 points. */
+function stddev(xs: number[], mu: number): number {
+  if (xs.length < 2) return DEFAULT_SIGMA
+  const variance = xs.reduce((a, x) => a + (x - mu) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)
+  return Math.sqrt(variance) || DEFAULT_SIGMA
+}
+
+/** Fit a calibration model from estimate-vs-actual samples. Pure. */
+export function fitCalibration(samples: CalibrationSample[]): CalibrationModel {
+  const usable = samples.filter((s) => s.estimateDays > 0 && s.actualWorkingDays > 0)
+  const n = usable.length
+  const coldStart = n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD
+
+  const logRatios = usable.map((s) => Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays))
+  const globalMu = n ? mean(logRatios) : 0
+  const global: LognormalPrior = { mu: globalMu, sigma: n ? stddev(logRatios, globalMu) : DEFAULT_SIGMA }
+
+  const byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit> = {}
+  const byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias> = {}
+  const groups = new Map<number, number[]>()
+  const people = new Map<string, number[]>()
+  for (const s of usable) {
+    const lr = Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays)
+    ;(groups.get(s.bucket) ?? groups.set(s.bucket, []).get(s.bucket)!).push(lr)
+    if (s.person) (people.get(s.person) ?? people.set(s.person, []).get(s.person)!).push(lr)
+  }
+  for (const [bucket, lrs] of groups) {
+    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
+    const mu = mean(lrs)
+    byBucket[bucket] = { mu, sigma: stddev(lrs, mu), n: lrs.length }
+  }
+  for (const [person, lrs] of people) {
+    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
+    byPerson[person] = { biasMu: mean(lrs) - globalMu, n: lrs.length }
+  }
+
+  return { n, coldStart, global, byBucket, byPerson }
+}
+
+/** The subset of a model `forecast` consumes. */
+export function toDurationModel(model: CalibrationModel): DurationModel {
+  const byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {}
+  for (const [bucket, fit] of Object.entries(model.byBucket)) {
+    byBucket[Number(bucket)] = { mu: fit.mu, sigma: fit.sigma }
+  }
+  return { coldStart: model.coldStart, global: model.global, byBucket }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Extract calibration samples from the closed backlog: each closed issue that
+ * carries an estimate and yields an inferred actual working duration.
+ */
+export function calibrationSamples(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>,
+  asOf: Date,
+): CalibrationSample[] {
+  const out: CalibrationSample[] = []
+  for (const issue of issues) {
+    if (issue.state !== 'closed') continue
+    const estimateDays = issue.facts.estimateDays
+    if (estimateDays == null) continue
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
+    if (inf.actualWorkingDays == null || inf.actualWorkingDays <= 0) continue
+    out.push({
+      issue: issue.number,
+      estimateDays,
+      actualWorkingDays: inf.actualWorkingDays,
+      bucket: nearestBucket(estimateDays),
+      person: issue.assignee,
+    })
+  }
+  return out
+}

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { describeChange, type IssueChange, planIssueChange } from './apply-changes-v0.js'
+
+describe('planIssueChange', () => {
+  it('swaps the estimate label, keeping non-axis labels', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1', 'backend'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'backend', 'est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('adds an estimate when none was set', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['p/2'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/1d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual([])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/1d'])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/2', 'est/1d'])
+  })
+
+  it('clears the axis when the target is null', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/3d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['p/1'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual([])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/3d'])
+  })
+
+  it('is a noop when the target already holds the axis alone', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/2d' })
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(true)
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/2d'])
+  })
+
+  it('cleans up a duplicated axis down to the target', () => {
+    // two est/* labels — the change collapses to one
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'est/5d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual([]) // est/5d already present
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('reprioritize only touches the priority axis', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/3'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: 'p/1' })
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/2d', 'p/1'])
+  })
+
+  it('describeChange renders the diff', () => {
+    const change: IssueChange = { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' }
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/2d'], change))).toBe('est/2d → est/5d')
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null }))).toBe('p/1 → ∅')
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/5d'], change))).toBe('no change')
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+/**
+ * Apply-changes, v0 — the write path's planning half. Estimates and priority
+ * live as exclusive label axes (`est/*`, `p/*`); a change swaps the axis label.
+ * This computes the resulting label set + a human-readable diff *purely*, so the
+ * UI can show a propose-approve consequence before the write and tests can pin
+ * the semantics. The actual PUT (name→id resolution + network) is the bridge's
+ * job — additive here, never assumed.
+ */
+
+import {
+  type EstimateLabel,
+  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
+  type PriorityLabel,
+  PRIORITY_LABELS,
+} from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+
+export type IssueChange =
+  | { kind: 'reestimate'; issue: number; estimate: EstimateLabel | null }
+  | { kind: 'reprioritize'; issue: number; priority: PriorityLabel | null }
+
+export interface LabelPlan {
+  /** The full resulting label-name set (order: kept labels, then the new axis label). */
+  labels: string[]
+  /** Axis labels being added (0 or 1). */
+  added: string[]
+  /** Axis labels being removed (includes clearing a duplicated axis). */
+  removed: string[]
+  /** true when the change would leave the labels unchanged. */
+  noop: boolean
+}
+
+function axisFor(change: IssueChange): { labels: readonly string[]; target: string | null } {
+  return change.kind === 'reestimate'
+    ? { labels: ESTIMATE_LABELS, target: change.estimate }
+    : { labels: PRIORITY_LABELS, target: change.priority }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Plan the label mutation for a single change. Removes every label on the
+ * change's axis except the target, adds the target if absent. Setting the axis
+ * to null clears it. Cleans up a duplicated axis (two `est/*`) as a side effect.
+ */
+export function planIssueChange(current: string[], change: IssueChange): LabelPlan {
+  const { labels: axis, target } = axisFor(change)
+  const onAxis = current.filter((l) => axis.includes(l))
+  const removed = onAxis.filter((l) => l !== target)
+  const added = target && !current.includes(target) ? [target] : []
+  const kept = current.filter((l) => !axis.includes(l))
+  const labels = target ? [...kept, target] : kept
+  return { labels, added, removed, noop: added.length === 0 && removed.length === 0 }
+}
+
+/** A short "est/2d → est/3d" (or "+p/1" / "−est/5d") summary for the confirm UI. */
+export function describeChange(plan: LabelPlan): string {
+  if (plan.noop) return 'no change'
+  const from = plan.removed.length ? plan.removed.join(', ') : '∅'
+  const to = plan.added.length ? plan.added.join(', ') : '∅'
+  return `${from} → ${to}`
+}

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { type DependencyEdge, type SchedulableIssue } from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+import { COLD_START_PRIORS, forecast, priorForEstimate } from './forecast-v0.js'
+
+function issue(number: number, over: Partial<SchedulableIssue> = {}): SchedulableIssue {
+  return { number, title: `#${number}`, labels: [], estimateDays: 2, priority: 2, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('priorForEstimate', () => {
+  it('returns the exact prior for a bucket day count', () => {
+    expect(priorForEstimate(3)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[3])
+    expect(priorForEstimate(8)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[8])
+  })
+
+  it('snaps a non-bucket estimate to the nearest bucket', () => {
+    expect(priorForEstimate(4)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[3]) // tie → smaller bucket
+    expect(priorForEstimate(6)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[5])
+    expect(priorForEstimate(100)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[8])
+  })
+
+  it('every prior is pessimistic (median actual runs longer than the estimate)', () => {
+    for (const p of Object.values(COLD_START_PRIORS)) expect(p.mu).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('forecast', () => {
+  const scope = [
+    issue(1, { estimateDays: 2 }),
+    issue(2, { estimateDays: 3 }),
+    issue(3, { estimateDays: 1 }),
+  ]
+
+  it('is reproducible: same seed → identical result', () => {
+    const a = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 500, seed: 42 })
+    const b = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 500, seed: 42 })
+    expect(a).toEqual(b)
+  })
+
+  it('percentiles are ordered p50 <= p80 <= p95', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(f.p80Day)
+    expect(f.p80Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(f.p95Day)
+  })
+
+  it('the burn-up curve is monotonic in both fraction and day', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    expect(f.curve).toHaveLength(3)
+    for (let i = 1; i < f.curve.length; i++) {
+      expect(f.curve[i].fraction).toBeGreaterThan(f.curve[i - 1].fraction)
+      expect(f.curve[i].p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(f.curve[i - 1].p50Day)
+    }
+    expect(f.curve.at(-1)!.fraction).toBeCloseTo(1)
+  })
+
+  it('lo/mid/hi are ordered within each cone point', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    for (const pt of f.curve) {
+      expect(pt.p10Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(pt.p50Day)
+      expect(pt.p50Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(pt.p90Day)
+    }
+  })
+
+  it('the median landing runs longer than the raw estimate sum (pessimism)', () => {
+    const rawSum = 2 + 3 + 1
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 4000 })
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(rawSum)
+  })
+
+  it('reports scope and cold-start honestly', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(3)
+    expect(f.coldStart).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('a dependency cycle yields an empty, zeroed forecast', () => {
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [
+      { issue: 1, dependsOn: 2 },
+      { issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 },
+    ]
+    const f = forecast([issue(1), issue(2)], edges, { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(0)
+    expect(f.curve).toEqual([])
+    expect(f.p80Day).toBe(0)
+  })
+
+  it('an empty scope forecasts nothing', () => {
+    const f = forecast([], [], { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(0)
+    expect(f.curve).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('unestimated issues fall back to the default-estimate prior', () => {
+    const f = forecast([issue(1, { estimateDays: null }), issue(2, { estimateDays: null })], [], {
+      trials: 500,
+    })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(2)
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+  })
+
+  it('a cold-start model changes nothing — the code priors still drive it', () => {
+    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 1000, seed: 7 })
+    const cold = forecast(scope, [], {
+      trials: 1000,
+      seed: 7,
+      model: { coldStart: true, global: { mu: 5, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
+    })
+    expect(cold.coldStart).toBe(true)
+    expect(cold.p50Day).toBeCloseTo(priors.p50Day, 6)
+  })
+
+  it('a fitted model drives the sim once past cold-start', () => {
+    // an optimistic fit (mu < 0, tight sigma) should land the scope sooner than the pessimistic priors
+    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 2000, seed: 7 })
+    const fitted = forecast(scope, [], {
+      trials: 2000,
+      seed: 7,
+      model: { coldStart: false, global: { mu: -0.2, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
+    })
+    expect(fitted.coldStart).toBe(false)
+    expect(fitted.p50Day).toBeLessThan(priors.p50Day)
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,193 @@
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo forecast, v0. The LLM never does this — it's plain, seeded,
+ * reproducible code (evidence-based scheduling). It samples an actual duration
+ * per open issue from a lognormal prior, walks the scheduler's deterministic
+ * order on a single serial worker, and reads percentiles off the resulting
+ * completion-day distribution.
+ *
+ * v0 simplifications (each a later slice, not a hack):
+ *  - single serial worker; per-person capacity + parallelism is #8.
+ *  - cold-start priors only; the team's empirical calibration fit lands at
+ *    n >= 20 closed-with-estimate issues (#5 supplies the actuals).
+ *  - forecast covers remaining (open) scope from today forward; the historical
+ *    burn-up "actual" polyline needs lifecycle event dates (#5).
+ */
+
+import {
+  type DependencyEdge,
+  schedule,
+  type SchedulableIssue,
+} from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+
+export interface LognormalPrior {
+  /** Median log-ratio: sampled median duration = estimate * e^mu. */
+  mu: number
+  /** Spread of log(actual / estimate). */
+  sigma: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Code-resident cold-start priors (D3). Lognormal on log(actual / estimate):
+ * sampled actual = estimateDays * exp(N(mu, sigma)). mu > 0 encodes the honest
+ * fact that actuals run long; sigma shrinks as tickets grow (a snag doubles a
+ * 1-day task but barely dents an 8-day one). The team's fitted model replaces
+ * these at n >= 20 (see calibration model in pm-state.md).
+ */
+export const COLD_START_PRIORS: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {
+  1: { mu: 0.25, sigma: 0.55 },
+  2: { mu: 0.22, sigma: 0.48 },
+  3: { mu: 0.2, sigma: 0.44 },
+  5: { mu: 0.18, sigma: 0.4 },
+  8: { mu: 0.16, sigma: 0.36 },
+}
+
+export const PRIOR_BUCKETS = [1, 2, 3, 5, 8]
+
+/** Nearest estimate bucket (ties resolve to the smaller bucket). */
+export function nearestBucket(days: number): number {
+  let best = PRIOR_BUCKETS[0]
+  for (const b of PRIOR_BUCKETS) {
+    if (Math.abs(b - days) < Math.abs(best - days)) best = b
+  }
+  return best
+}
+
+/** The cold-start prior for the bucket nearest to `days`. */
+export function priorForEstimate(days: number): LognormalPrior {
+  return COLD_START_PRIORS[nearestBucket(days)]
+}
+
+/** The lognormal parameters `forecast` needs, per estimate bucket. */
+export interface DurationModel {
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Fallback params (used when a bucket lacks its own fit). */
+  global: LognormalPrior
+  /** Per-bucket fitted params; missing buckets fall back to `global`. */
+  byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior>
+}
+
+export interface ForecastOptions {
+  /** Simulation trials. More = smoother tails, linear cost. */
+  trials?: number
+  /** PRNG seed. Fixed by default so a forecast is reproducible. */
+  seed?: number
+  /**
+   * Fitted duration model. When present and not cold-start, its params drive
+   * the sim; otherwise the code-resident cold-start priors do.
+   */
+  model?: DurationModel
+}
+
+/** Resolve the lognormal params for an estimate, preferring a fitted model. */
+export function durationParams(days: number, model?: DurationModel): LognormalPrior {
+  if (model && !model.coldStart) {
+    return model.byBucket[nearestBucket(days)] ?? model.global
+  }
+  return priorForEstimate(days)
+}
+
+export interface BurnUpPoint {
+  /** Cumulative fraction of remaining scope complete (0 < f <= 1]. */
+  fraction: number
+  /** Working-day offset from today at the p10 / p50 / p90 of reaching it. */
+  p10Day: number
+  p50Day: number
+  p90Day: number
+}
+
+export interface Forecast {
+  /** Open issues in scope (== scheduled count). */
+  scope: number
+  trials: number
+  /** true while code priors drive the sim; false once the empirical fit is in (v1). */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Working-day offsets from today for the whole scope landing. */
+  p50Day: number
+  p80Day: number
+  p95Day: number
+  /** Burn-up cone, one point per scheduled issue, fraction ascending. */
+  curve: BurnUpPoint[]
+}
+
+const DEFAULT_TRIALS = 2000
+const DEFAULT_SEED = 0x9e3779b9
+
+/** mulberry32 — small, fast, seedable PRNG (no reliance on Math.random). */
+function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {
+  let a = seed >>> 0
+  return () => {
+    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0
+    let t = Math.imul(a ^ (a >>> 15), 1 | a)
+    t = (t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), 61 | t)) ^ t
+    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296
+  }
+}
+
+/** Box–Muller standard normal from a uniform PRNG. */
+function standardNormal(rng: () => number): number {
+  let u1 = rng()
+  const u2 = rng()
+  if (u1 < 1e-12) u1 = 1e-12
+  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2)
+}
+
+function percentile(sortedAsc: number[], q: number): number {
+  const idx = Math.min(sortedAsc.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.round(q * (sortedAsc.length - 1))))
+  return sortedAsc[idx]
+}
+
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo over the deterministic schedule order. Order is fixed (it's
+ * derived from estimate labels + dependencies, not sampled), so only durations
+ * vary across trials — the cone stretches, it never reorders.
+ */
+export function forecast(
+  issues: SchedulableIssue[],
+  edges: DependencyEdge[],
+  options: ForecastOptions = {},
+): Forecast {
+  const trials = options.trials ?? DEFAULT_TRIALS
+  const seed = options.seed ?? DEFAULT_SEED
+  const coldStart = options.model ? options.model.coldStart : true
+  const order = schedule(issues, edges).items // empty when a dependency cycle exists
+  const n = order.length
+  if (n === 0) {
+    return { scope: 0, trials, coldStart, p50Day: 0, p80Day: 0, p95Day: 0, curve: [] }
+  }
+
+  const priors = order.map((it) => durationParams(it.durationDays, options.model))
+  const rng = mulberry32(seed)
+
+  // endByRank[k][t] = working day the (k+1)-th scheduled issue completes on trial t.
+  const endByRank: number[][] = Array.from({ length: n }, () => new Array<number>(trials))
+  for (let t = 0; t < trials; t++) {
+    let cursor = 0
+    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
+      const p = priors[k]
+      const sampled = order[k].durationDays * Math.exp(p.mu + p.sigma * standardNormal(rng))
+      cursor += sampled
+      endByRank[k][t] = cursor
+    }
+  }
+
+  const curve: BurnUpPoint[] = endByRank.map((row, k) => {
+    const sorted = [...row].sort((a, b) => a - b)
+    return {
+      fraction: (k + 1) / n,
+      p10Day: percentile(sorted, 0.1),
+      p50Day: percentile(sorted, 0.5),
+      p90Day: percentile(sorted, 0.9),
+    }
+  })
+
+  const total = [...endByRank[n - 1]].sort((a, b) => a - b)
+  return {
+    scope: n,
+    trials,
+    coldStart,
+    p50Day: percentile(total, 0.5),
+    p80Day: percentile(total, 0.8),
+    p95Day: percentile(total, 0.95),
+    curve,
+  }
+}

packages/core/src/gitea/client.test.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
 
-import { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue } from './client.js'
+import { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue, normalizeTimeline } from './client.js'
 import { GiteaApiError, type FetchLike, type GiteaConfig, type GiteaRequestInit } from './types.js'
 
 const CONFIG: GiteaConfig = {
@@ -44,6 +44,31 @@ function stubFetch(body: unknown, status = 200): {
   return { fetch, calls }
 }
 
+describe('normalizeTimeline', () => {
+  it('maps known gitea event types to lifecycle signals and drops the rest', () => {
+    const events = normalizeTimeline([
+      { type: 'label', created_at: '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'milestone', created_at: '2026-01-06T09:05:00Z' },
+      { type: 'commit_ref', created_at: '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'pull_ref', created_at: '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'comment', created_at: '2026-01-08T13:00:00Z' }, // dropped
+      { type: 'add_dependency', created_at: '2026-01-08T14:00:00Z' }, // dropped
+      { type: 'close', created_at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+    ])
+    expect(events).toEqual([
+      { type: 'triage', at: '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'triage', at: '2026-01-06T09:05:00Z' },
+      { type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'pull', at: '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+    ])
+  })
+
+  it('skips events missing a timestamp', () => {
+    expect(normalizeTimeline([{ type: 'commit_ref', created_at: '' }])).toEqual([])
+  })
+})
+
 describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
   it('returns a normalized, typed issue from canned JSON', async () => {
     const { fetch } = stubFetch(RAW_ISSUE)
@@ -98,6 +123,29 @@ describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
     )
   })
 
+  it('setIssueLabels PUTs the label ids to the issue labels endpoint', async () => {
+    const { fetch, calls } = stubFetch(null, 204)
+    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).setIssueLabels(9, [3, 7])
+
+    expect(calls).toHaveLength(1)
+    expect(calls[0].url).toBe('https://gitea.stephenmann.io/api/v1/repos/christian/commitea/issues/9/labels')
+    expect(calls[0].init?.method).toBe('PUT')
+    expect(calls[0].init?.headers?.['Content-Type']).toBe('application/json')
+    expect(JSON.parse(calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ labels: [3, 7] })
+  })
+
+  it('listLabels returns id+name pairs', async () => {
+    const { fetch } = stubFetch([
+      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d', color: 'fff' },
+      { id: 7, name: 'p/1', color: '000' },
+    ])
+    const labels = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listLabels()
+    expect(labels).toEqual([
+      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d' },
+      { id: 7, name: 'p/1' },
+    ])
+  })
+
   it('throws GiteaApiError carrying status + body on a non-2xx response', async () => {
     const { fetch } = stubFetch('not found', 404)
     const client = createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch)
@@ -107,6 +155,50 @@ describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
   })
 })
 
+describe('createGiteaClient.listIssues', () => {
+  /** Stub fetch that pages 50-at-a-time and records the paths it was asked for. */
+  function pagedFetch(pages: unknown[][]): { fetch: FetchLike; paths: string[] } {
+    const paths: string[] = []
+    const fetch: FetchLike = (url) => {
+      paths.push(url)
+      const page = Number(/[?&]page=(\d+)/.exec(url)?.[1] ?? '1')
+      const body = pages[page - 1] ?? []
+      return Promise.resolve({
+        ok: true,
+        status: 200,
+        json: () => Promise.resolve(body),
+        text: () => Promise.resolve(''),
+      })
+    }
+    return { fetch, paths }
+  }
+
+  it('walks every page until a short page ends it', async () => {
+    const full = Array.from({ length: 50 }, (_, i) => ({ ...RAW_ISSUE, number: i + 1 }))
+    const tail = [{ ...RAW_ISSUE, number: 51 }]
+    const { fetch, paths } = pagedFetch([full, tail])
+
+    const issues = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listIssues()
+    expect(issues).toHaveLength(51)
+    expect(paths).toHaveLength(2) // stopped after the short second page
+    expect(paths[0]).toContain('/issues?type=issues&state=all&page=1&limit=50')
+  })
+
+  it('excludes pull requests even if the API returns them', async () => {
+    const { fetch } = pagedFetch([
+      [{ ...RAW_ISSUE, number: 1 }, { ...RAW_ISSUE, number: 2, pull_request: { url: 'x' } }],
+    ])
+    const issues = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listIssues()
+    expect(issues.map((i) => i.number)).toEqual([1])
+  })
+
+  it('passes the state filter through', async () => {
+    const { fetch, paths } = pagedFetch([[]])
+    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listIssues({ state: 'open' })
+    expect(paths[0]).toContain('state=open')
+  })
+})
+
 describe('normalizeIssue', () => {
   it('defaults missing labels/assignees/body to empty and maps a closed state', () => {
     const issue = normalizeIssue({

packages/core/src/gitea/client.ts

@@ -1,16 +1,20 @@
 /**
- * Gitea read client. One method for now — `getIssue` — proving the vertical
+ * Gitea read client. Config + injected fetch → typed, normalized domain
- * slice end to end: config + injected fetch → typed, normalized `GiteaIssue`
+ * objects with scheduler facts precomputed. `getIssue` proved the vertical
- * with scheduler facts precomputed. Later reconcile work (P1-4) layers list
+ * slice (P1-1); `listIssues`/`listMilestones` are the reconcile reads (P1-4)
- * reads on the same `request` seam.
+ * layered on the same `request` seam. Pagination is handled here so callers
+ * get the full set.
  */
 
+import { type LifecycleEvent, type LifecycleEventType } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
 import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
 import {
   GiteaApiError,
   type FetchLike,
   type GiteaConfig,
   type GiteaIssue,
+  type GiteaLabel,
+  type GiteaMilestone,
   type GiteaMilestoneRef,
 } from './types.js'
 
@@ -39,11 +43,66 @@ interface RawIssue {
   updated_at: string
   closed_at: string | null
   html_url: string
+  /** Present (non-null) when the row is actually a pull request. */
+  pull_request?: unknown
+}
+interface RawMilestoneFull {
+  id: number
+  title: string
+  description: string | null
+  due_on: string | null
+  state: string
+  open_issues: number
+  closed_issues: number
+}
+
+/** The subset of a gitea timeline comment we read. */
+interface RawTimelineComment {
+  type: string
+  created_at: string
+}
+
+/** gitea timeline `type` → our lifecycle signal. Unmapped types are dropped. */
+const TIMELINE_TYPE_MAP: Record<string, LifecycleEventType> = {
+  label: 'triage',
+  milestone: 'triage',
+  assignees: 'triage',
+  commit_ref: 'commit',
+  pull_ref: 'pull',
+  close: 'close',
+  reopen: 'reopen',
+}
+
+/** Map a raw gitea timeline to normalized lifecycle events. Pure. */
+export function normalizeTimeline(raw: RawTimelineComment[]): LifecycleEvent[] {
+  const out: LifecycleEvent[] = []
+  for (const c of raw) {
+    const type = TIMELINE_TYPE_MAP[c.type]
+    if (type && c.created_at) out.push({ type, at: c.created_at })
+  }
+  return out
+}
+
+export interface ListIssuesOptions {
+  /** @default 'all' */
+  state?: 'open' | 'closed' | 'all'
 }
 
 export interface GiteaClient {
   /** Fetch one issue by its per-repo index, normalized. */
   getIssue(index: number): Promise<GiteaIssue>
+  /** Fetch every issue (all pages), pull requests excluded. */
+  listIssues(opts?: ListIssuesOptions): Promise<GiteaIssue[]>
+  /** Fetch every milestone (all pages). */
+  listMilestones(): Promise<GiteaMilestone[]>
+  /** The issue indices this issue depends on (its blockers). */
+  getIssueDependencies(index: number): Promise<number[]>
+  /** Normalized lifecycle events for one issue (all pages of its timeline). */
+  getIssueTimeline(index: number): Promise<LifecycleEvent[]>
+  /** Every label defined on the repo (id + name), for name→id resolution. */
+  listLabels(): Promise<GiteaLabel[]>
+  /** Replace an issue's entire label set with the given label ids. Write. */
+  setIssueLabels(index: number, labelIds: number[]): Promise<void>
 }
 
 /** Map raw gitea issue JSON to the normalized domain shape. Pure. */
@@ -71,27 +130,97 @@ export function normalizeIssue(raw: RawIssue): GiteaIssue {
   }
 }
 
+/** Map a raw milestone resource to the normalized shape. Pure. */
+export function normalizeMilestone(raw: RawMilestoneFull): GiteaMilestone {
+  return {
+    id: raw.id,
+    title: raw.title,
+    description: raw.description ?? '',
+    dueOn: raw.due_on,
+    state: raw.state === 'closed' ? 'closed' : 'open',
+    openIssues: raw.open_issues,
+    closedIssues: raw.closed_issues,
+  }
+}
+
+const PAGE_LIMIT = 50
+
 export function createGiteaClient(config: GiteaConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): GiteaClient {
   const apiBase = `${config.baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/api/v1`
   const repoBase = `${apiBase}/repos/${config.owner}/${config.repo}`
 
-  async function request(path: string): Promise<unknown> {
+  async function request(path: string, init?: { method?: string; body?: unknown }): Promise<unknown> {
+    const method = init?.method ?? 'GET'
+    const hasBody = init?.body !== undefined
     const res = await fetchImpl(`${repoBase}${path}`, {
+      method,
       headers: {
         Authorization: `token ${config.token}`,
         Accept: 'application/json',
+        ...(hasBody ? { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' } : {}),
       },
+      body: hasBody ? JSON.stringify(init!.body) : undefined,
     })
     if (!res.ok) {
       const body = await res.text().catch(() => '')
-      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `GET ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
+      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `${method} ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
+    }
+    // writes may reply 204 No Content
+    return res.status === 204 ? null : res.json()
+  }
+
+  /** Follow gitea's page-limit pagination until a short page is returned. */
+  async function requestAll<T>(build: (page: number) => string): Promise<T[]> {
+    const out: T[] = []
+    for (let page = 1; ; page++) {
+      const batch = (await request(build(page))) as T[]
+      out.push(...batch)
+      if (batch.length < PAGE_LIMIT) return out
     }
-    return res.json()
   }
 
   return {
     async getIssue(index) {
       return normalizeIssue((await request(`/issues/${index}`)) as RawIssue)
     },
+
+    async listIssues(opts) {
+      const state = opts?.state ?? 'all'
+      const raw = await requestAll<RawIssue>(
+        (page) => `/issues?type=issues&state=${state}&page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      // `type=issues` should exclude PRs, but guard anyway.
+      return raw.filter((r) => r.pull_request == null).map(normalizeIssue)
+    },
+
+    async listMilestones() {
+      const raw = await requestAll<RawMilestoneFull>(
+        (page) => `/milestones?state=all&page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      return raw.map(normalizeMilestone)
+    },
+
+    async getIssueDependencies(index) {
+      const raw = (await request(`/issues/${index}/dependencies`)) as { number: number }[]
+      return raw.map((d) => d.number)
+    },
+
+    async getIssueTimeline(index) {
+      const raw = await requestAll<RawTimelineComment>(
+        (page) => `/issues/${index}/timeline?page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      return normalizeTimeline(raw)
+    },
+
+    async listLabels() {
+      const raw = await requestAll<{ id: number; name: string }>(
+        (page) => `/labels?page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      return raw.map((l) => ({ id: l.id, name: l.name }))
+    },
+
+    async setIssueLabels(index, labelIds) {
+      await request(`/issues/${index}/labels`, { method: 'PUT', body: { labels: labelIds } })
+    },
   }
 }

packages/core/src/gitea/types.ts

@@ -35,6 +35,12 @@ export interface GiteaHttpResponse {
 
 export type FetchLike = (url: string, init?: GiteaRequestInit) => Promise<GiteaHttpResponse>
 
+/** A repo label — just the id + name we need for name→id resolution. */
+export interface GiteaLabel {
+  id: number
+  name: string
+}
+
 /** Milestone as referenced from an issue (not the full milestone resource). */
 export interface GiteaMilestoneRef {
   id: number
@@ -43,6 +49,17 @@ export interface GiteaMilestoneRef {
   dueOn: string | null
 }
 
+/** A milestone resource with its open/closed counts. */
+export interface GiteaMilestone {
+  id: number
+  title: string
+  description: string
+  dueOn: string | null
+  state: 'open' | 'closed'
+  openIssues: number
+  closedIssues: number
+}
+
 /**
  * Normalized issue — camelCase, label names flattened, scheduler-facing
  * `facts` precomputed via `extractLabelFacts`. This is the domain shape the

packages/core/src/index.ts

@@ -9,14 +9,72 @@ export {
 } from './labels/label-schema.js'
 export type { EstimateLabel, LabelFacts, PriorityLabel } from './labels/label-schema.js'
 
-export { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue } from './gitea/client.js'
+export { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue, normalizeMilestone, normalizeTimeline } from './gitea/client.js'
-export type { GiteaClient } from './gitea/client.js'
+export type { GiteaClient, ListIssuesOptions } from './gitea/client.js'
 export { GiteaApiError } from './gitea/types.js'
 export type {
   FetchLike,
   GiteaConfig,
   GiteaHttpResponse,
   GiteaIssue,
+  GiteaLabel,
+  GiteaMilestone,
   GiteaMilestoneRef,
   GiteaRequestInit,
 } from './gitea/types.js'
+
+export { describeChange, planIssueChange } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
+export type { IssueChange, LabelPlan } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  inferColumnV0,
+  inferLifecycle,
+  LIFECYCLE_COLUMNS,
+  workingDaysBetween,
+} from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+export type {
+  LifecycleColumn,
+  LifecycleEvent,
+  LifecycleEventType,
+  LifecycleInference,
+  LifecycleStages,
+} from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+
+export { DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS, schedule, selectFocus } from './scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+export type {
+  DependencyEdge,
+  Focus,
+  SchedulableIssue,
+  ScheduledItem,
+  SchedulePlan,
+} from './scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  COLD_START_PRIORS,
+  durationParams,
+  forecast,
+  nearestBucket,
+  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
+  priorForEstimate,
+} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+export type {
+  BurnUpPoint,
+  DurationModel,
+  Forecast,
+  ForecastOptions,
+  LognormalPrior,
+} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
+  fitCalibration,
+  toDurationModel,
+} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
+export type {
+  BucketFit,
+  CalibrationModel,
+  CalibrationSample,
+  PersonBias,
+} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'

packages/core/src/lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import {
+  inferColumnV0,
+  inferLifecycle,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  workingDaysBetween,
+} from './lifecycle-v0.js'
+
+const base = { state: 'open' as const, labels: [] as string[], milestone: null }
+
+describe('inferColumnV0', () => {
+  it('closed issues are done', () => {
+    expect(inferColumnV0({ ...base, state: 'closed' })).toBe('done')
+  })
+
+  it('open + labelled is triage', () => {
+    expect(inferColumnV0({ ...base, labels: ['est/2d'] })).toBe('triage')
+  })
+
+  it('open + milestoned is triage', () => {
+    expect(inferColumnV0({ ...base, milestone: { id: 6, title: 'P1', dueOn: null } })).toBe('triage')
+  })
+
+  it('open + bare is diagnosis', () => {
+    expect(inferColumnV0(base)).toBe('diagnosis')
+  })
+
+  it('never guesses steeping or review in v0', () => {
+    // even a closed, labelled, milestoned issue resolves to a real column, never the event-only ones
+    const col = inferColumnV0({ ...base, labels: ['est/2d', 'p/1'], milestone: { id: 6, title: 'P1', dueOn: null } })
+    expect(['steeping', 'review']).not.toContain(col)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('workingDaysBetween', () => {
+  it('counts weekdays in [start, end), excluding weekends', () => {
+    // Mon 2026-01-05 → Mon 2026-01-12 spans a full week = 5 working days
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-05'), new Date('2026-01-12'))).toBe(5)
+  })
+
+  it('is 0 for same day or reversed', () => {
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-05'), new Date('2026-01-05'))).toBe(0)
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-12'), new Date('2026-01-05'))).toBe(0)
+  })
+
+  it('skips a weekend inside the interval', () => {
+    // Fri 2026-01-09 → Mon 2026-01-12: only Fri counts (Sat/Sun excluded) = 1
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-09'), new Date('2026-01-12'))).toBe(1)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('inferLifecycle', () => {
+  const openBase = { ...base, createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z', closedAt: null }
+  const asOf = new Date('2026-01-14T09:00:00Z')
+
+  const ev = (type: LifecycleEvent['type'], at: string): LifecycleEvent => ({ type, at })
+
+  it('bare open issue with no events is diagnosis', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(openBase, [], asOf)
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('diagnosis')
+    expect(inf.stages.opened).toBe(openBase.createdAt)
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBeNull()
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('a triage event (or a current label) moves it to triage', () => {
+    expect(inferLifecycle(openBase, [ev('triage', '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z')], asOf).column).toBe('triage')
+    expect(inferLifecycle({ ...openBase, labels: ['p/1'] }, [], asOf).column).toBe('triage')
+  })
+
+  it('a commit ref moves an open issue to steeping and counts its working age', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, labels: ['est/2d'] },
+      [ev('triage', '2026-01-05T10:00:00Z'), ev('commit', '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('steeping')
+    expect(inf.stages.steeping).toBe('2026-01-07T12:00:00Z')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Wed 2026-01-14 = 5 working days
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBe(5)
+  })
+
+  it('a pull ref outranks a commit ref → review', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      openBase,
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z'), ev('pull', '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('review')
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBeNull() // only steeping issues carry an age
+  })
+
+  it('closed → done, with actual working time from work-start to close', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, state: 'closed', closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z'), ev('pull', '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z'), ev('close', '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('done')
+    expect(inf.stages.done).toBe('2026-01-12T09:00:00Z')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Mon 2026-01-12 = Wed,Thu,Fri = 3 working days
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+
+  it('takes the earliest event of each kind for stage timestamps', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      openBase,
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-09T09:00:00Z'), ev('commit', '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.stages.steeping).toBe('2026-01-07T09:00:00Z')
+  })
+
+  it('falls back to opened when a closed issue has no work-start signal', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, state: 'closed', closedAt: '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z' },
+      [ev('close', '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    // Mon 2026-01-05 → Thu 2026-01-08 = Mon,Tue,Wed = 3 working days
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+/**
+ * Lifecycle inference.
+ *
+ * `inferColumnV0` places the coarse three columns from a single issues-list
+ * read (state/labels/milestone). `inferLifecycle` (#5) adds the issue timeline:
+ * first commit ref → Steeping, first PR ref → In review, close → Done — and
+ * derives the estimate-vs-actual working time that feeds calibration (D3).
+ */
+
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+
+export type LifecycleColumn = 'diagnosis' | 'triage' | 'steeping' | 'review' | 'done'
+
+export const LIFECYCLE_COLUMNS: readonly LifecycleColumn[] = [
+  'diagnosis',
+  'triage',
+  'steeping',
+  'review',
+  'done',
+]
+
+/**
+ * Closed → done. Open with any human intent applied (a label or a milestone)
+ * → triage. Open and bare → diagnosis. Never returns steeping/review — that's
+ * `inferLifecycle`, which reads the event stream.
+ */
+export function inferColumnV0(issue: Pick<GiteaIssue, 'state' | 'labels' | 'milestone'>): LifecycleColumn {
+  if (issue.state === 'closed') return 'done'
+  const hasIntent = issue.labels.length > 0 || issue.milestone !== null
+  return hasIntent ? 'triage' : 'diagnosis'
+}
+
+/** A timeline signal, normalized from gitea's raw event stream. */
+export type LifecycleEventType = 'triage' | 'commit' | 'pull' | 'close' | 'reopen'
+
+export interface LifecycleEvent {
+  type: LifecycleEventType
+  /** ISO timestamp. */
+  at: string
+}
+
+/** Timestamps for the stages an issue has reached (absent = not yet reached). */
+export interface LifecycleStages {
+  opened: string
+  /** First label / milestone / assignment. */
+  triaged?: string
+  /** First commit referencing the issue — work began. */
+  steeping?: string
+  /** First PR referencing the issue — in review. */
+  review?: string
+  /** Closed. */
+  done?: string
+}
+
+export interface LifecycleInference {
+  column: LifecycleColumn
+  stages: LifecycleStages
+  /**
+   * Working days from work-start (steeping → triaged → opened, first available)
+   * to done. Only for closed issues — this is the "actual" calibration learns
+   * from. null while open.
+   */
+  actualWorkingDays: number | null
+  /** Working days the issue has been steeping (first commit → asOf); null unless currently steeping. */
+  steepingDays: number | null
+}
+
+const DAY_MS = 86_400_000
+
+/**
+ * Whole working days (Mon–Fri) in the half-open interval [start, end). Same day
+ * or reversed → 0. Day-granular by design — estimates are in days.
+ */
+export function workingDaysBetween(start: Date, end: Date): number {
+  const s = Date.UTC(start.getUTCFullYear(), start.getUTCMonth(), start.getUTCDate())
+  const e = Date.UTC(end.getUTCFullYear(), end.getUTCMonth(), end.getUTCDate())
+  if (e <= s) return 0
+  let count = 0
+  for (let t = s; t < e; t += DAY_MS) {
+    const dow = new Date(t).getUTCDay()
+    if (dow !== 0 && dow !== 6) count += 1
+  }
+  return count
+}
+
+/**
+ * The five-column inference. Column reflects the furthest stage still in play:
+ * closed → done; else an open PR ref → review; else a commit ref → steeping;
+ * else any triage signal (or a current label/milestone) → triage; else
+ * diagnosis. Stage timestamps are the earliest event of each kind.
+ */
+export function inferLifecycle(
+  issue: Pick<GiteaIssue, 'state' | 'labels' | 'milestone' | 'createdAt' | 'closedAt'>,
+  events: LifecycleEvent[],
+  asOf: Date,
+): LifecycleInference {
+  const sorted = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.at.localeCompare(b.at))
+  const firstOf = (type: LifecycleEventType) => sorted.find((e) => e.type === type)?.at
+
+  const stages: LifecycleStages = { opened: issue.createdAt }
+  const triagedAt = firstOf('triage')
+  const steepingAt = firstOf('commit')
+  const reviewAt = firstOf('pull')
+  if (triagedAt) stages.triaged = triagedAt
+  if (steepingAt) stages.steeping = steepingAt
+  if (reviewAt) stages.review = reviewAt
+  const doneAt = issue.state === 'closed' ? (issue.closedAt ?? firstOf('close')) : undefined
+  if (doneAt) stages.done = doneAt
+
+  let column: LifecycleColumn
+  if (issue.state === 'closed') column = 'done'
+  else if (reviewAt) column = 'review'
+  else if (steepingAt) column = 'steeping'
+  else if (triagedAt || issue.labels.length > 0 || issue.milestone !== null) column = 'triage'
+  else column = 'diagnosis'
+
+  let actualWorkingDays: number | null = null
+  if (stages.done) {
+    const start = stages.steeping ?? stages.triaged ?? stages.opened
+    actualWorkingDays = workingDaysBetween(new Date(start), new Date(stages.done))
+  }
+
+  let steepingDays: number | null = null
+  if (column === 'steeping' && stages.steeping) {
+    steepingDays = workingDaysBetween(new Date(stages.steeping), asOf)
+  }
+
+  return { column, stages, actualWorkingDays, steepingDays }
+}

packages/core/src/scheduler/scheduler-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { type DependencyEdge, schedule, type SchedulableIssue, selectFocus } from './scheduler-v0.js'
+
+function issue(number: number, over: Partial<SchedulableIssue> = {}): SchedulableIssue {
+  return { number, title: `#${number}`, labels: [], estimateDays: 2, priority: 2, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('schedule', () => {
+  it('lays open issues out serially with cumulative start/finish', () => {
+    const plan = schedule([issue(1, { estimateDays: 2 }), issue(2, { estimateDays: 3 })], [])
+    expect(plan.cycle).toBeNull()
+    const byN = Object.fromEntries(plan.items.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
+    // total span = sum of durations, no overlap (single serial worker)
+    const spans = plan.items.map((i) => [i.startDay, i.endDay])
+    expect(spans).toContainEqual([0, expect.any(Number)])
+    expect(byN[1].durationDays + byN[2].durationDays).toBe(5)
+    expect(Math.max(...plan.items.map((i) => i.endDay))).toBe(5)
+  })
+
+  it('respects dependencies: a dependency is scheduled before its dependent', () => {
+    // #2 depends on #1
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [{ issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 }]
+    const plan = schedule([issue(2, { priority: 1 }), issue(1, { priority: 4 })], edges)
+    const order = plan.items.map((i) => i.number)
+    expect(order.indexOf(1)).toBeLessThan(order.indexOf(2))
+    // #2 records #1 as a blocker; #1 records #2 as blocked
+    const two = plan.items.find((i) => i.number === 2)!
+    expect(two.blockedBy).toEqual([1])
+    const one = plan.items.find((i) => i.number === 1)!
+    expect(one.blocks).toEqual([2])
+  })
+
+  it('breaks ties among ready roots by priority, then estimate', () => {
+    const plan = schedule(
+      [issue(1, { priority: 3 }), issue(2, { priority: 1 }), issue(3, { priority: 2 })],
+      [],
+    )
+    expect(plan.items.map((i) => i.number)).toEqual([2, 3, 1])
+  })
+
+  it('detects a dependency cycle instead of looping', () => {
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [
+      { issue: 1, dependsOn: 2 },
+      { issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 },
+    ]
+    const plan = schedule([issue(1), issue(2)], edges)
+    expect(plan.items).toHaveLength(0)
+    expect(plan.cycle).not.toBeNull()
+    expect(plan.cycle!.sort()).toEqual([1, 2])
+  })
+
+  it('drops dependencies on out-of-scope (closed) issues', () => {
+    // #2 depends on #9 which isn't in scope → treated as satisfied
+    const plan = schedule([issue(2)], [{ issue: 2, dependsOn: 9 }])
+    expect(plan.cycle).toBeNull()
+    expect(plan.items.find((i) => i.number === 2)!.blockedBy).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('marks the longest dependency chain critical', () => {
+    // chain 1→2→3 (each 3d = 9d) vs standalone 4 (2d): 1,2,3 critical, 4 not
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [
+      { issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 },
+      { issue: 3, dependsOn: 2 },
+    ]
+    const issues = [
+      issue(1, { estimateDays: 3 }),
+      issue(2, { estimateDays: 3 }),
+      issue(3, { estimateDays: 3 }),
+      issue(4, { estimateDays: 2 }),
+    ]
+    const plan = schedule(issues, edges)
+    const crit = plan.items.filter((i) => i.critical).map((i) => i.number).sort()
+    expect(crit).toEqual([1, 2, 3])
+    expect(plan.items.find((i) => i.number === 4)!.critical).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('defaults a null estimate to DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS', () => {
+    const plan = schedule([issue(1, { estimateDays: null })], [])
+    expect(plan.items[0].durationDays).toBe(2)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('selectFocus', () => {
+  it('picks the first three of the ordered plan as now/next/later', () => {
+    const plan = schedule([issue(1, { priority: 1 }), issue(2, { priority: 2 }), issue(3, { priority: 3 })], [])
+    const focus = selectFocus(plan)
+    expect(focus.now?.number).toBe(1)
+    expect(focus.next?.number).toBe(2)
+    expect(focus.later?.number).toBe(3)
+  })
+
+  it('returns nulls past the end of a short plan', () => {
+    const focus = selectFocus(schedule([issue(1)], []))
+    expect(focus.now?.number).toBe(1)
+    expect(focus.next).toBeNull()
+    expect(focus.later).toBeNull()
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/scheduler/scheduler-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
+/**
+ * Deterministic scheduler, v0. Orders the open backlog by dependency topology,
+ * then priority, then estimate; lays it out on a single serial capacity and
+ * marks the critical path. The LLM never does this — it's plain code.
+ *
+ * v0 simplifications (each is a later slice, not a hack):
+ *  - single serial worker; per-person capacity is #8.
+ *  - point durations from estimate labels; Monte Carlo cones are #10.
+ *  - a null estimate defaults to DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS.
+ * Dependencies on out-of-scope issues (closed/done, or not passed in) are
+ * treated as satisfied and dropped — you schedule what's left to do.
+ */
+
+export const DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS = 2
+
+export interface SchedulableIssue {
+  number: number
+  title: string
+  labels: string[]
+  /** From label facts; null when unestimated. */
+  estimateDays: number | null
+  /** 1 (most urgent) … 4; null when unset. */
+  priority: number | null
+}
+
+export interface DependencyEdge {
+  issue: number
+  dependsOn: number
+}
+
+export interface ScheduledItem {
+  number: number
+  title: string
+  labels: string[]
+  /** 0-based position in the plan. */
+  order: number
+  /** Working-day offsets from now. */
+  startDay: number
+  endDay: number
+  durationDays: number
+  /** In-scope dependencies (all still open, so all still blocking). */
+  blockedBy: number[]
+  /** Issues that depend on this one. */
+  blocks: number[]
+  /** On a longest-duration dependency chain. */
+  critical: boolean
+  rationale: string
+}
+
+export interface SchedulePlan {
+  items: ScheduledItem[]
+  /** A dependency cycle (issue numbers) if one was found — the plan is then empty. */
+  cycle: number[] | null
+}
+
+function durationOf(issue: SchedulableIssue): number {
+  return issue.estimateDays ?? DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS
+}
+
+/** Best-first comparison among ready nodes: priority (1 first), then larger estimate, then number. */
+function readyRank(a: SchedulableIssue, b: SchedulableIssue): number {
+  const pa = a.priority ?? 99
+  const pb = b.priority ?? 99
+  if (pa !== pb) return pa - pb
+  const da = durationOf(a)
+  const db = durationOf(b)
+  if (da !== db) return db - da
+  return a.number - b.number
+}
+
+function rationaleFor(item: {
+  critical: boolean
+  blockedBy: number[]
+  blocks: number[]
+  priority: number | null
+}): string {
+  const blocksNote = item.blocks.length ? `unblocks ${item.blocks.map((n) => `#${n}`).join(', ')}` : ''
+  if (item.critical) return ['on the critical path', blocksNote].filter(Boolean).join(' · ')
+  if (item.blockedBy.length) return `waits on ${item.blockedBy.map((n) => `#${n}`).join(', ')}`
+  if (blocksNote) return blocksNote
+  if (item.priority != null) return `p/${item.priority} · ready`
+  return 'ready'
+}
+
+export function schedule(issues: SchedulableIssue[], edges: DependencyEdge[]): SchedulePlan {
+  const byNumber = new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
+
+  // keep only edges whose endpoints are both in scope
+  const scoped = edges.filter((e) => byNumber.has(e.issue) && byNumber.has(e.dependsOn))
+  const deps = new Map<number, number[]>() // issue → its dependencies
+  const dependents = new Map<number, number[]>() // issue → who depends on it
+  for (const i of issues) {
+    deps.set(i.number, [])
+    dependents.set(i.number, [])
+  }
+  for (const e of scoped) {
+    deps.get(e.issue)!.push(e.dependsOn)
+    dependents.get(e.dependsOn)!.push(e.issue)
+  }
+
+  // Kahn topo with priority tie-break
+  const indegree = new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, deps.get(i.number)!.length]))
+  const order: number[] = []
+  const ready = issues.filter((i) => indegree.get(i.number) === 0)
+  while (ready.length) {
+    ready.sort(readyRank)
+    const next = ready.shift()!
+    order.push(next.number)
+    for (const dep of dependents.get(next.number)!) {
+      const d = indegree.get(dep)! - 1
+      indegree.set(dep, d)
+      if (d === 0) ready.push(byNumber.get(dep)!)
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (order.length < issues.length) {
+    // cycle: report the nodes that never became ready
+    const stuck = issues.filter((i) => indegree.get(i.number)! > 0).map((i) => i.number)
+    return { items: [], cycle: stuck }
+  }
+
+  // longest-path (by duration) for critical-path marking
+  const longestThrough = new Map<number, number>() // node → longest chain duration passing through it
+  const before = new Map<number, number>() // longest duration of chain ending at node's start
+  for (const n of order) {
+    const depMax = Math.max(0, ...deps.get(n)!.map((d) => before.get(d)! + durationOf(byNumber.get(d)!)))
+    before.set(n, depMax)
+  }
+  const after = new Map<number, number>()
+  for (const n of [...order].reverse()) {
+    const depMax = Math.max(0, ...dependents.get(n)!.map((d) => after.get(d)! + durationOf(byNumber.get(d)!)))
+    after.set(n, depMax)
+  }
+  let globalMax = 0
+  for (const n of order) {
+    const total = before.get(n)! + durationOf(byNumber.get(n)!) + after.get(n)!
+    longestThrough.set(n, total)
+    globalMax = Math.max(globalMax, total)
+  }
+
+  // serial layout
+  let cursor = 0
+  const items: ScheduledItem[] = order.map((n, idx) => {
+    const issue = byNumber.get(n)!
+    const dur = durationOf(issue)
+    const start = cursor
+    cursor += dur
+    const blockedBy = deps.get(n)!
+    const blocks = dependents.get(n)!
+    const critical = globalMax > 0 && longestThrough.get(n) === globalMax
+    return {
+      number: n,
+      title: issue.title,
+      labels: issue.labels,
+      order: idx,
+      startDay: start,
+      endDay: cursor,
+      durationDays: dur,
+      blockedBy,
+      blocks,
+      critical,
+      rationale: rationaleFor({ critical, blockedBy, blocks, priority: issue.priority }),
+    }
+  })
+
+  return { items, cycle: null }
+}
+
+export interface Focus {
+  now: ScheduledItem | null
+  next: ScheduledItem | null
+  later: ScheduledItem | null
+}
+
+/** Now/Next/Later = the first three of the plan (already dependency- + priority-ordered). */
+export function selectFocus(plan: SchedulePlan): Focus {
+  return {
+    now: plan.items[0] ?? null,
+    next: plan.items[1] ?? null,
+    later: plan.items[2] ?? null,
+  }
+}