Croissant Le Doux 7e26de1b6c feat: calibration from closed-issue actuals → forecast flips off cold-start (#1)
Close the D3 loop. The forecast now learns from the team's own estimate-vs-actual
history (the working time #5 infers from git events) instead of guessing forever.

core (@commitea/core/calibration-v0):
- fitCalibration(samples): lognormal fit on log(actual/estimate) — global +
  per-bucket (once a bucket clears the floor) + per-person bias. coldStart until
  n >= 20 closed-with-estimate issues.
- calibrationSamples(): pull those samples from the closed backlog via lifecycle
  inference (estimate label vs inferred actualWorkingDays).
- toDurationModel(): project the fit to the params forecast consumes.
- forecast() gains options.model: when past cold-start, fitted params drive the
  sim (per bucket, global fallback); otherwise the code priors do. Forecast.coldStart
  now reflects the model. nearestBucket extracted + exported.

app:
- AppShell fits calibration once from the reconciled backlog, feeds the model into
  forecastBacklog (cone), and drives the Calibration screen + Runway header.
- Focus cone footer, Runway note, and Calibration screen now say cold-start (N/20)
  vs calibrated (on N closed) from real data; Calibration scatter / bucket bias /
  per-person all fitted, degrading honestly on a thin dataset.

Known refinement: same-day closes yield 0 working-day actuals (day-granular) and
are excluded, so a fast-moving repo can sit at n=0 — honest, but a fractional
(hours-based) actual would let those count. Per-person uses gitea login, not
display name, until the person map lands.

Note: also re-lands #10 (Monte Carlo) and #5 (lifecycle) which merged into their
stacked base branches but never propagated to main (stacked-merge trap); this
branch is cut from main and carries all three so main is whole again.

Verified: 74 core tests green (9 calibration + 2 forecast-switch added), desktop
typecheck clean, 14 fixture e2e green, live spec asserts the real cold-start
calibration surface (Runway note + screen badge fitted from actuals).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 19:51:50 -04:00

CommiTea

AI project manager built on Gitea. A deterministic scheduler does the math (Monte Carlo forecasts over your own estimate-vs-actual history); the agent — Reginald — captures work via interview, negotiates priorities, and explains the consequences. Gitea holds human-authored intent; a pm-state repo holds machine-derived state. The LLM never does math.

Structure

  • apps/desktop — Electron app (electron-vite, React, Tailwind)
  • packages/core — pure TypeScript: label schema, scheduler, gitea client (no Electron imports)
  • docs/PLAN.md — product plan (goals, phases, not-doing list)
  • docs/design/ — design handoff: tokens, component contracts, interactive prototype (docs/design/ui_kits/app/index.html via a static server), brand voice rules in design_system_readme.md

Development

yarn            # install
yarn dev        # electron app, logs tee to apps/desktop/desktop.log
yarn test       # unit tests (vitest)
yarn typecheck

End-to-end (Electron + Playwright)

yarn workspace @commitea/desktop e2e        # build, then drive the built app
yarn workspace @commitea/desktop e2e:only   # reuse existing out/ build (tight loop)
yarn workspace @commitea/desktop e2e:report # open the last HTML report

Tests launch the built app (out/main/index.js) through Playwright's _electron API — no browser project, no chromium download. Fixtures and page objects live in apps/desktop/e2e/; screenshots land in e2e/.artifacts/screens/ for visual review. Page objects use user-facing locators (getByRole/getByText), never CSS/DOM structure.

Conventions

  • Yarn 4 workspaces; ESM everywhere; .js extensions on relative imports
  • @commitea/core stays pure — unit-testable without Electron or network
  • Design tokens are the source of truth (apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/design/, mirrored from docs/design/); Tailwind maps onto the CSS custom properties, never redefines them
  • Reginald's voice rules live in docs/design/design_system_readme.md — no emoji, no point-date forecasts, wit in sentences never in buttons
Description
No description provided
Readme 2.6 MiB
Languages
TypeScript 97.8%
CSS 1.7%
JavaScript 0.4%