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Monte Carlo milestone cones (p10/p50/p80) #10

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opened 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00 by christian · 1 comment
christian commented 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00
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Run the scheduler over N sampled duration draws (priors now, empirical fit later) -> milestone completion-date bands, never point dates.

Acceptance: fixed seed -> stable p10<=p50<=p80; shape matches runway/milestone view contracts (agent-tools.md).

Run the scheduler over N sampled duration draws (priors now, empirical fit later) -> milestone completion-date bands, never point dates. **Acceptance:** fixed seed -> stable p10<=p50<=p80; shape matches runway/milestone view contracts (agent-tools.md).
christian added this to the P2 — Scheduler + Monte Carlo milestone 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00
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christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#7 Lognormal cold-start priors + seedable sampler
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#9 Deterministic scheduler (topo order -> dated plan)
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:45 +00:00
#23 query_project read tool
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:48 +00:00
#32 Performance pass against the numeric goals
christian commented 2026-07-09 05:21:05 +00:00
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Shipped — Monte Carlo cones (p10/p50/p90) on Focus/Runway/milestone.

Shipped — Monte Carlo cones (p10/p50/p90) on Focus/Runway/milestone.
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Reference: christian/commitea#10
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