christian/commitea

Monte Carlo milestone cones (p10/p50/p80) #10

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opened 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00 by christian · 1 comment

christian commented

2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00

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Run the scheduler over N sampled duration draws (priors now, empirical fit later) -> milestone completion-date bands, never point dates.

Acceptance: fixed seed -> stable p10<=p50<=p80; shape matches runway/milestone view contracts (agent-tools.md).

Run the scheduler over N sampled duration draws (priors now, empirical fit later) -> milestone completion-date bands, never point dates. **Acceptance:** fixed seed -> stable p10<=p50<=p80; shape matches runway/milestone view contracts (agent-tools.md).

christian added this to the P2 — Scheduler + Monte Carlo milestone 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00

christian added the

labels 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00

christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00

#7 Lognormal cold-start priors + seedable sampler

christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00

#9 Deterministic scheduler (topo order -> dated plan)

christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:45 +00:00

#23 query_project read tool

christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:48 +00:00

#32 Performance pass against the numeric goals

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 21:12:24 +00:00

feat: deterministic scheduler → real Now/Next/Later (P2 thin slice)

christian referenced this issue

2026-07-08 21:12:42 +00:00

P2: deterministic scheduler → real Now/Next/Later #37

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 23:10:35 +00:00

feat: Monte Carlo forecast → real burn-up cone (#10)

christian referenced this issue

2026-07-08 23:11:39 +00:00

P2: Monte Carlo forecast → real burn-up cone (#10) #38

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 23:22:52 +00:00

Merge pull request 'P2: Monte Carlo forecast → real burn-up cone (#10)' (#38) from p2/monte-carlo into p2/scheduler-focus

christian referenced this issue

2026-07-08 23:32:24 +00:00

P1-5: lifecycle inference from the issue timeline (#5) #39

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 23:51:51 +00:00

feat: Monte Carlo forecast → real burn-up cone (#10)

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 23:51:51 +00:00

feat: calibration from closed-issue actuals → forecast flips off cold-start (#1)

christian referenced this issue

2026-07-08 23:52:15 +00:00

Calibration → forecast flips off cold-start (#1); re-lands Monte Carlo (#10) + lifecycle (#5) #40

christian referenced this issue from a commit

2026-07-08 23:54:49 +00:00

Merge pull request 'Calibration → forecast flips off cold-start (#1); re-lands Monte Carlo (#10) + lifecycle (#5)' (#40) from p2/calibration into main

christian commented

2026-07-09 05:21:05 +00:00

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Shipped — Monte Carlo cones (p10/p50/p90) on Focus/Runway/milestone.

Shipped — Monte Carlo cones (p10/p50/p90) on Focus/Runway/milestone.

christian closed this issue

2026-07-09 05:21:05 +00:00

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Blocks

#23 query_project read tool

christian/commitea

#32 Performance pass against the numeric goals

christian/commitea

Depends on

#7 Lognormal cold-start priors + seedable sampler

christian/commitea

#9 Deterministic scheduler (topo order -> dated plan)

christian/commitea

Reference: christian/commitea#10