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Lognormal cold-start priors + seedable sampler #7

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opened 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00 by christian · 1 comment
christian commented 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00
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Code-resident per-bucket (1d/2d/3d/5d/8d) lognormal priors (decisions D3) + a deterministic seedable RNG so Monte Carlo is reproducible.

Acceptance: fixed seed -> fixed sample sequence; per-bucket median ratio pessimism-skewed (>1).

Code-resident per-bucket (1d/2d/3d/5d/8d) lognormal priors (decisions D3) + a deterministic seedable RNG so Monte Carlo is reproducible. **Acceptance:** fixed seed -> fixed sample sequence; per-bucket median ratio pessimism-skewed (>1).
christian added this to the P2 — Scheduler + Monte Carlo milestone 2026-07-08 15:15:09 +00:00
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christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#10 Monte Carlo milestone cones (p10/p50/p80)
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#11 Calibration fit + cold-start switchover
christian commented 2026-07-09 05:21:04 +00:00
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Shipped — lognormal cold-start priors + seeded mulberry32 sampler.

Shipped — lognormal cold-start priors + seeded mulberry32 sampler.
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Reference: christian/commitea#7
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