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Calibration fit + cold-start switchover #11

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opened 2026-07-08 15:15:10 +00:00 by christian · 1 comment
christian commented 2026-07-08 15:15:10 +00:00
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Fit lognormal on log(actual/estimate) per bucket from closed-issue actuals; coldStart true while n<20; write calibration/model.json shape. Below-floor buckets fall back to code priors.

Acceptance: <20 closed -> coldStart+priors; >=20 -> fitted global/byBucket with recorded n.

Fit lognormal on log(actual/estimate) per bucket from closed-issue actuals; coldStart true while n<20; write `calibration/model.json` shape. Below-floor buckets fall back to code priors. **Acceptance:** <20 closed -> coldStart+priors; >=20 -> fitted global/byBucket with recorded n.
christian added this to the P2 — Scheduler + Monte Carlo milestone 2026-07-08 15:15:10 +00:00
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christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#5 Lifecycle inference from the issue timeline
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:43 +00:00
#7 Lognormal cold-start priors + seedable sampler
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:48 +00:00
#30 Purity/rebuild test (decisions D4)
christian added a new dependency 2026-07-08 15:15:49 +00:00
#34 Calibration honesty pass at n>=20
christian commented 2026-07-09 05:21:05 +00:00
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Shipped — fitCalibration + cold-start->fitted switchover at n>=20.

Shipped — fitCalibration + cold-start->fitted switchover at n>=20.
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Reference: christian/commitea#11
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