feat: config & onboarding — each teammate connects their own Gitea (Phase A)

The foundation for a shareable team build. Replaces the .env.local-only dev config
with a real, per-teammate connection flow.

main:
- config-store.ts: token encrypted at rest via Electron safeStorage (OS keychain),
  config JSON in userData. Token lives only in main; renderer gets everything but.
- resolveConfig: saved config > .env.local (dev) > null; ignored under COMMITEA_E2E.
  pm-state repo defaults to `${repo}-pm-state`. resetClients() re-reads on change so
  saving config takes effect without a restart. gitea:status gains `demo` (e2e).
- IPC: config:get (no token), config:test (authed read validates token+repo),
  config:set (encrypt+save+reset), config:clear. Model bridge reads config.modelUrl
  and probes reachability — chat is "configured" only if a model actually answers;
  localhost default is dev-only (app.isPackaged gate).

renderer:
- ConnectScreen: real onboarding form (URL/owner/repo/PAT/optional model) → test →
  save. AppShell gates on it: demo → shell (fixtures/e2e); configured → shell (real);
  else → connect. Settings Connection card is real (repo/url/model/sidecar) with
  Reconfigure + Disconnect. Chat cleanly disables with a "no model" state instead of
  the scripted canned reply.

Verified: main + desktop typecheck clean, 14 fixture e2e green (demo mode unchanged),
live onboarding e2e: fresh app → connect form → validated PAT → real board (24 done /
10 open). COMMITEA_NO_ENV_LOCAL + COMMITEA_USERDATA are test hooks for the onboarding path.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/desktop/e2e/live-backlog.spec.ts

@@ -16,17 +16,65 @@ test.describe('live backlog', () => {
     await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
     const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
 
-    // The pot — waiting here also lets the reconcile (issues + deps) complete
+    // The pot — waiting here also lets the reconcile (issues + deps + timelines) complete
     await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'The pot' }).click()
     await expect(win.getByText('Gitea read client behind an injected fetch')).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+    // Lifecycle inference (#5): columns come from the real event stream — merged
+    // work lands in Done, so that column is non-empty (proves timelines drove it,
+    // not the three-column fallback which would still show closed issues in Done).
+    await expect(win.getByText('Done', { exact: true })).toBeVisible()
     await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-board.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
 
     // Back to Focus — the deterministic scheduler's real Now/Next/Later. These
     // rationale phrases are emitted only by the scheduler, never by the demo fixture.
     await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
     await expect(win.getByText(/on the critical path|unblocks #|waits on #|· ready/).first()).toBeVisible()
+    // Real Monte Carlo cone — this headline is emitted only for real forecasts.
+    await expect(win.getByText(/80% of the open backlog lands by/)).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Cold-start priors/)).toBeVisible()
     await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-focus.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
 
+    // Runway → calibration surface, fitted from real closed-issue actuals (#1).
+    // With <20 estimated closes the repo is honestly cold-start; the note proves
+    // the fit ran on real data, not the fixture's "calibrated on 27".
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Runway' }).click()
+    await expect(
+      win.getByText(/cold-start priors · \d+\/20 closed issues estimated|calibrated on \d+ closed/),
+    ).toBeVisible()
+    // Real per-milestone forecasts — these milestone names come from gitea, not the
+    // fixture (which lists Beta / Pilot-ready / v1.0).
+    await expect(win.getByText(/P2 — Scheduler/)).toBeVisible()
+    // Real capacity config from pm-state (christian/stephen), not the fixture (Stephen/Ana K.)
+    await expect(win.getByText('christian', { exact: true })).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/pd\/day/).first()).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-runway.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Milestone drill-in — clicking a real milestone opens its real detail
+    await win.getByText(/P2 — Scheduler/).click()
+    await expect(win.getByRole('heading', { name: 'P2 — Scheduler + Monte Carlo' })).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/\d+ issues · est \d+d/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-milestone.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Runway' }).click()
+
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Full report' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/cold-start · \d+\/20|curve active · n ≥ 20/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-calibration.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Write path (apply_changes): open the top scheduled issue, propose an
+    // estimate change, and confirm the propose-approve diff renders — then CANCEL
+    // so the live run never mutates the real repo (the PUT is unit-tested; a
+    // one-off change→revert verified it against gitea manually).
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
+    await win.getByRole('main').getByRole('link').first().click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/· stephen\/commitea/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Adjust' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText('Adjust estimate & priority')).toBeVisible()
+    await win.getByRole('combobox').first().selectOption('est/8d')
+    await expect(win.getByText('Proposed label change')).toBeVisible()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/est\/8d/).last()).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-apply-change.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Cancel' }).click() // no mutation
+
     await app.close()
   })
 })

apps/desktop/e2e/live-capture.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+// Opt-in (GITEA_LIVE=1 + COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE=1 + a local model on :1234). Launches
+// WITHOUT COMMITEA_E2E so capture_work runs the real decomposition. It Discards at
+// the end so the run never files junk issues (the create-issue POST is unit-tested).
+test.describe('live capture_work', () => {
+  test('decomposes a braindump into a reviewable ticket set', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE || !process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE, 'live model test — opt-in')
+    test.setTimeout(300_000)
+    const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
+
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Capture' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Capture' })).toBeVisible()
+    // the braindump is prefilled; run the real decomposition
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Brew tickets' }).click()
+
+    // capture_work → the review tray with a real, estimated ticket set
+    await expect(win.getByText(/tickets · ~\d+d of work/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 240_000 })
+    await expect(win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Approve all' })).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-capture.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    // Discard — never file junk issues into the real repo from a test
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Discard' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Brew tickets' })).toBeVisible()
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/live-directive.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+// Opt-in (GITEA_LIVE=1 + COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE=1 + a local model + the commitea-pm-state
+// repo). Reginald records a standing directive; it's appended to the real pm-state
+// ledger. The append is idempotent-ish (a fresh line each run); this only reads back
+// that a directive was consulted, and leaves the ledger intact.
+test.describe('live record_directive', () => {
+  test('logs a standing directive to the pm-state ledger', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE || !process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE, 'live model test — opt-in')
+    test.setTimeout(300_000)
+    const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    await expect(win.getByText(/· local$/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+
+    const composer = win.getByPlaceholder(/Tell me what to do/)
+    await composer.fill('Record a standing directive: freeze scope for beta, pilots come first.')
+    await composer.press('Enter')
+
+    // the agent logged it to the ledger (record_directive), not applied a change
+    await expect(win.getByText(/consulted the directive ledger/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 240_000 })
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-directive.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/live-onboarding.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { mkdtempSync, readFileSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { tmpdir } from 'node:os'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+/** Read the real token from .env.local (walking up) so the test can fill the form. */
+function readToken(): string | null {
+  let dir = here
+  for (let i = 0; i < 6; i++) {
+    try {
+      const m = /^GITEA_TOKEN\s*=\s*(.+?)\s*$/m.exec(readFileSync(join(dir, '.env.local'), 'utf8'))
+      if (m) return m[1].trim()
+    } catch {
+      /* keep walking */
+    }
+    dir = dirname(dir)
+  }
+  return null
+}
+
+// Opt-in (GITEA_LIVE=1). Forces the onboarding path (COMMITEA_NO_ENV_LOCAL) with a
+// fresh userData, fills the real connection form, and asserts it lands on real data.
+test.describe('live onboarding', () => {
+  test('connect form → real board', async () => {
+    const token = process.env.GITEA_LIVE ? readToken() : null
+    test.skip(!token, 'GITEA_LIVE + a .env.local token required')
+    test.setTimeout(90_000)
+
+    const app = await electron.launch({
+      args: [MAIN],
+      env: { ...process.env, COMMITEA_NO_ENV_LOCAL: '1', COMMITEA_USERDATA: mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), 'commitea-')) },
+    })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+
+    // the connection gate, not the app
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Connect your Gitea/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 15000 })
+    await win.getByPlaceholder('your-org').fill('christian')
+    await win.getByPlaceholder('your-repo').fill('commitea')
+    await win.getByPlaceholder(/gitea PAT/).fill(token!)
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Connect' }).click()
+
+    // it validated + saved + reconciled into the real board — real issue titles prove it
+    const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
+    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'The pot' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Model router|SQLite cache bootstrap|Purity\/rebuild/).first()).toBeVisible({ timeout: 30000 })
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-onboarding.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/live-persistence.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+// Opt-in (GITEA_LIVE=1). A real launch persists the snapshot; a second launch with
+// gitea unreachable must still show the board + real scheduler output from the
+// persisted cache (offline reads). No model needed.
+test.describe('live persistence', () => {
+  test('offline: serves the persisted snapshot', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE, 'GITEA_LIVE not set — opt-in live test')
+    test.setTimeout(120_000)
+
+    // launch 1 — real reconcile writes the snapshot to disk
+    const app1 = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const w1 = await app1.firstWindow()
+    await w1.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    // a scheduler-only phrase confirms real data reconciled (never emitted by fixtures)
+    await expect(w1.getByText(/on the critical path|unblocks #|waits on #|· ready/).first()).toBeVisible({ timeout: 30000 })
+    await app1.close()
+
+    // launch 2 — gitea unreachable; the reconcile must fall back to the persisted snapshot
+    const app2 = await electron.launch({
+      args: [MAIN],
+      env: { ...process.env, GITEA_BASE_URL: 'http://127.0.0.1:9' },
+    })
+    const w2 = await app2.firstWindow()
+    await w2.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    // Focus still renders real scheduler output — proving it came from the cache, offline
+    await expect(w2.getByText(/on the critical path|unblocks #|waits on #|· ready/).first()).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+    await w2.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-offline.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+    await app2.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/live-reginald.spec.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
+
+const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
+const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
+
+// Opt-in (GITEA_LIVE=1 + COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE=1 + a local model on :1234). Launches
+// WITHOUT COMMITEA_E2E so Reginald runs the real agent loop against the real repo.
+test.describe('live Reginald', () => {
+  test('answers a question by consulting the real project', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE || !process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE, 'live model test — opt-in')
+    test.setTimeout(300_000) // a big local model is slow: ~2 calls/turn + a reconcile
+    const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+
+    // model configured → the live greeting + header (the loaded model, not the scripted demo)
+    await expect(win.getByText(/· local$/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+    await expect(win.getByText(/I check the real board before I answer/)).toBeVisible()
+
+    const composer = win.getByPlaceholder(/Tell me what to do/)
+    await composer.fill('What should I work on right now?')
+    await composer.press('Enter')
+
+    // the agent loop ran end-to-end: it consulted the project, then answered
+    await expect(win.getByText(/consulted the project/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 240_000 })
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-reginald.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+
+  test('proposes an estimate change for inline approval (writes via chat)', async () => {
+    test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE || !process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE, 'live model test — opt-in')
+    test.setTimeout(300_000)
+    const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
+    const win = await app.firstWindow()
+    await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
+    await expect(win.getByText(/· local$/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
+
+    const composer = win.getByPlaceholder(/Tell me what to do/)
+    await composer.fill('Set the estimate on issue #3 to est/5d.')
+    await composer.press('Enter')
+
+    // propose_change → an inline propose-approve card (never an auto-write)
+    await expect(win.getByText('Proposed · #3')).toBeVisible({ timeout: 240_000 })
+    await expect(win.getByText(/→ est\/5d/)).toBeVisible()
+    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-reginald-propose.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
+    // Dismiss so the live run never mutates the repo (the write path itself is #41-tested)
+    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Dismiss' }).click()
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Left #3 as it was/)).toBeVisible()
+
+    await app.close()
+  })
+})

apps/desktop/e2e/smoke.spec.ts

@@ -97,7 +97,7 @@ test('Directives: consequence diff + append-only ledger', async ({ app, window }
 test('Settings: connection, schema, and appearance sync with theme', async ({ app, window }) => {
   await app.nav('Settings').click()
   await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Settings' })).toBeVisible()
-  await expect(window.getByText('Managed repos')).toBeVisible()
+  await expect(window.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Connection' })).toBeVisible()
   await app.screenshot('settings')
   // the Evening (dark) radio drives the shared theme
   await window.getByText('Evening (dark)').click()

apps/desktop/src/main/config-store.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
+/**
+ * Persistent app config for a shared/team build. The gitea PAT is encrypted at
+ * rest with Electron's safeStorage (OS keychain-backed) and only ever lives in
+ * the main process — the renderer receives everything *except* the token. Config
+ * lives in userData so each teammate has their own; a `.env.local` remains a dev
+ * fallback (see resolveConfig). Nothing here runs under COMMITEA_E2E.
+ */
+
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { join } from 'node:path'
+
+import { app, safeStorage } from 'electron'
+
+export interface AppConfig {
+  baseUrl: string
+  owner: string
+  repo: string
+  token: string
+  /** Defaults to `${repo}-pm-state` when omitted. */
+  pmStateRepo?: string
+  /** OpenAI-compatible base for Reginald; chat stays off when absent. */
+  modelUrl?: string
+}
+
+/** The renderer-safe view — everything but the token, plus whether one is set. */
+export type PublicConfig = Omit<AppConfig, 'token'> & { hasToken: boolean }
+
+interface StoredConfig {
+  baseUrl: string
+  owner: string
+  repo: string
+  tokenEnc: string | null // base64 of safeStorage-encrypted token
+  pmStateRepo?: string
+  modelUrl?: string
+}
+
+function configPath(): string {
+  return join(app.getPath('userData'), 'commitea-config.json')
+}
+
+function readStored(): StoredConfig | null {
+  try {
+    return JSON.parse(readFileSync(configPath(), 'utf8')) as StoredConfig
+  } catch {
+    return null
+  }
+}
+
+/** Full config incl. the decrypted token, or null when unset. Main-process only. */
+export function loadConfig(): AppConfig | null {
+  const s = readStored()
+  if (!s || !s.baseUrl || !s.owner || !s.repo) return null
+  let token = ''
+  if (s.tokenEnc) {
+    try {
+      token = safeStorage.decryptString(Buffer.from(s.tokenEnc, 'base64'))
+    } catch {
+      token = '' // key rotated / different machine — treat as no token
+    }
+  }
+  if (!token) return null
+  return { baseUrl: s.baseUrl, owner: s.owner, repo: s.repo, token, pmStateRepo: s.pmStateRepo, modelUrl: s.modelUrl }
+}
+
+/** The renderer-safe view of the saved config (never includes the token). */
+export function publicConfig(): PublicConfig | null {
+  const s = readStored()
+  if (!s) return null
+  return {
+    baseUrl: s.baseUrl,
+    owner: s.owner,
+    repo: s.repo,
+    pmStateRepo: s.pmStateRepo,
+    modelUrl: s.modelUrl,
+    hasToken: !!s.tokenEnc,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Encrypt the token + persist. Best-effort; throws only on a genuine write failure. */
+export function saveConfig(cfg: AppConfig): void {
+  const tokenEnc = cfg.token
+    ? Buffer.from(safeStorage.encryptString(cfg.token)).toString('base64')
+    : (readStored()?.tokenEnc ?? null) // keep the existing token if none supplied
+  const stored: StoredConfig = {
+    baseUrl: cfg.baseUrl.trim().replace(/\/+$/, ''),
+    owner: cfg.owner.trim(),
+    repo: cfg.repo.trim(),
+    tokenEnc,
+    pmStateRepo: cfg.pmStateRepo?.trim() || undefined,
+    modelUrl: cfg.modelUrl?.trim() || undefined,
+  }
+  writeFileSync(configPath(), JSON.stringify(stored, null, 2), 'utf8')
+}
+
+export function clearConfig(): void {
+  try {
+    writeFileSync(configPath(), JSON.stringify({ baseUrl: '', owner: '', repo: '', tokenEnc: null }), 'utf8')
+  } catch {
+    // ignore
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/main/gitea.ts

@@ -6,12 +6,32 @@
  * properly later.
  */
 
+import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto'
 import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs'
 import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
 
-import { createGiteaClient, type GiteaConfig } from '@commitea/core'
+import {
+  appendDirective,
+  createGiteaClient,
+  GiteaApiError,
+  type DirectiveEntry,
+  type GiteaClient,
+  type GiteaConfig,
+  type GiteaLabel,
+  type IssueChange,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  makeDirectiveEntry,
+  parseCapacityConfig,
+  parseDirectiveLog,
+  planIssueChange,
+  type ProjectSnapshot,
+  type DirectiveInput,
+} from '@commitea/core'
 import { ipcMain } from 'electron'
 
+import { type AppConfig, clearConfig, loadConfig, publicConfig, saveConfig } from './config-store.js'
+import { loadSnapshot, saveSnapshot } from './snapshot-store.js'
+
 /** Walk up from cwd looking for a .env.local with a GITEA_TOKEN (dev convenience). */
 function loadEnvLocalToken(): string | undefined {
   let dir = process.cwd()
@@ -30,9 +50,15 @@ function loadEnvLocalToken(): string | undefined {
   return undefined
 }
 
-function resolveConfig(): GiteaConfig | null {
+/** Saved config wins (team build); a `.env.local` is the dev fallback; e2e uses fixtures. */
+export function resolveConfig(): GiteaConfig | null {
   // E2E runs against fixtures — never hit the network from the test harness.
   if (process.env.COMMITEA_E2E === '1') return null
+  const saved = loadConfig()
+  if (saved) return { baseUrl: saved.baseUrl, token: saved.token, owner: saved.owner, repo: saved.repo }
+  // COMMITEA_NO_ENV_LOCAL forces the onboarding path (no .env.local fallback) for testing.
+  if (process.env.COMMITEA_NO_ENV_LOCAL === '1') return null
+  // dev fallback — .env.local / env vars
   const token = process.env.GITEA_TOKEN ?? loadEnvLocalToken()
   if (!token) return null
   return {
@@ -43,15 +69,84 @@ function resolveConfig(): GiteaConfig | null {
   }
 }
 
-export function registerGiteaIpc(): void {
+/** The pm-state repo name: configured, else `${repo}-pm-state`, else the env override. */
+function pmStateRepoName(config: GiteaConfig): string {
+  return loadConfig()?.pmStateRepo ?? process.env.COMMITEA_PMSTATE_REPO ?? `${config.repo}-pm-state`
+}
+
+// Memoized clients; reset via resetClients() when the config changes.
+let sharedClient: GiteaClient | null | undefined
+let pmStateClient: GiteaClient | null | undefined
+
+/** Drop the cached clients + snapshot so the next call re-reads the new config. */
+export function resetClients(): void {
+  sharedClient = undefined
+  pmStateClient = undefined
+  labelCache = null
+  invalidateSnapshot()
+}
+
+export function getGiteaClient(): GiteaClient | null {
+  if (sharedClient === undefined) {
     const config = resolveConfig()
-  const client = config ? createGiteaClient(config, fetch) : null
-  const repo = config ? `${config.owner}/${config.repo}` : null
+    sharedClient = config ? createGiteaClient(config, fetch) : null
+  }
+  return sharedClient
+}
 
-  ipcMain.handle('gitea:status', () => ({ configured: !!config, repo }))
+// The pm-state repo holds machine-derived state (the directive ledger). Same
+// token/host as the work repo, a different repo (the purity split, decisions D4).
+export function getPmStateClient(): GiteaClient | null {
+  if (pmStateClient === undefined) {
+    const config = resolveConfig()
+    pmStateClient = config ? createGiteaClient({ ...config, repo: pmStateRepoName(config) }, fetch) : null
+  }
+  return pmStateClient
+}
 
-  ipcMain.handle('gitea:reconcile', async () => {
-    if (!client) return { configured: false, issues: [], milestones: [], deps: [] }
+const DIRECTIVE_LOG_PATH = 'directives/log.jsonl'
+
+async function readDirectiveLog(client: GiteaClient): Promise<{ text: string; sha: string | null }> {
+  const file = await client.getFile(DIRECTIVE_LOG_PATH)
+  if (!file) return { text: '', sha: null }
+  return { text: Buffer.from(file.contentBase64, 'base64').toString('utf8'), sha: file.sha }
+}
+
+/** Record a directive: read the ledger, append, write it back (concatenation merge). */
+export async function appendDirectiveEntry(client: GiteaClient, input: DirectiveInput): Promise<DirectiveEntry> {
+  const entry = makeDirectiveEntry(input, randomUUID(), new Date().toISOString())
+  const { text, sha } = await readDirectiveLog(client)
+  const next = appendDirective(text, entry)
+  await client.putFile(DIRECTIVE_LOG_PATH, {
+    contentBase64: Buffer.from(next, 'utf8').toString('base64'),
+    message: `directive: ${entry.kind}`,
+    sha: sha ?? undefined,
+  })
+  return entry
+}
+
+export async function readDirectives(client: GiteaClient) {
+  const { text } = await readDirectiveLog(client)
+  return parseDirectiveLog(text)
+}
+
+const CAPACITY_PATH = 'capacity/members.json'
+
+/** Read the capacity config from the pm-state repo (empty when absent). */
+export async function readCapacity(client: GiteaClient) {
+  const file = await client.getFile(CAPACITY_PATH)
+  if (!file) return []
+  try {
+    return parseCapacityConfig(JSON.parse(Buffer.from(file.contentBase64, 'base64').toString('utf8')))
+  } catch {
+    return []
+  }
+}
+
+/** Full reconcile: issues + milestones + native deps + lifecycle timelines. */
+export async function reconcileSnapshot(
+  client: GiteaClient,
+): Promise<ProjectSnapshot & { milestones: Awaited<ReturnType<GiteaClient['listMilestones']>> }> {
   const [issues, milestones] = await Promise.all([client.listIssues(), client.listMilestones()])
   // dependency edges among the open scope (the scheduler only plans what's left)
   const open = issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
@@ -59,11 +154,197 @@ export function registerGiteaIpc(): void {
     open.map(async (i) => ({ issue: i.number, dependsOn: await client.getIssueDependencies(i.number) })),
   )
   const deps = perIssue.flatMap(({ issue, dependsOn }) => dependsOn.map((d) => ({ issue, dependsOn: d })))
-    return { configured: true, issues, milestones, deps }
+  // lifecycle timelines for every issue (open → columns/badges, closed → calibration actuals)
+  const timelineEntries = await Promise.all(
+    issues.map(async (i) => [i.number, await client.getIssueTimeline(i.number)] as const),
+  )
+  const timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]> = Object.fromEntries(timelineEntries)
+  return { issues, milestones, deps, timelines }
+}
+
+type Snapshot = Awaited<ReturnType<typeof reconcileSnapshot>>
+
+/**
+ * A single in-memory reconcile cache shared across the app. A full reconcile is
+ * ~2N gitea calls (deps + timelines per issue); without this, every agent tool
+ * call refetched the whole repo. Reads within `maxAgeMs` reuse the cache;
+ * `getSnapshot({ maxAgeMs: 0 })` forces a fresh pull (the explicit UI reconcile),
+ * and any write calls `invalidateSnapshot()` so the next read sees it. The cache
+ * is rebuildable — the durable truth stays in gitea (the purity split, D4).
+ */
+let snapshotCache: { snap: Snapshot; at: number } | null = null
+
+export async function getSnapshot(client: GiteaClient, opts?: { maxAgeMs?: number }): Promise<Snapshot> {
+  const maxAgeMs = opts?.maxAgeMs ?? 0
+  if (snapshotCache && maxAgeMs > 0 && Date.now() - snapshotCache.at <= maxAgeMs) {
+    return snapshotCache.snap
+  }
+  const snap = await reconcileSnapshot(client)
+  snapshotCache = { snap, at: Date.now() }
+  saveSnapshot(snap, new Date().toISOString()) // persist for instant boot + offline
+  return snap
+}
+
+/** Drop the cache so the next read reflects a just-made write. */
+export function invalidateSnapshot(): void {
+  snapshotCache = null
+}
+
+/**
+ * The last persisted snapshot (from a previous session), for instant boot. The
+ * renderer shows it immediately, then a real reconcile supersedes it
+ * (stale-while-revalidate). Returns null when there's nothing on disk; its
+ * `savedAt` marks staleness. It does NOT seed the cache — agent tool calls
+ * always reconcile fresh so they never reason over stale data.
+ */
+export function bootSnapshot(): (Snapshot & { savedAt: string }) | null {
+  const persisted = loadSnapshot()
+  if (!persisted) return null
+  return {
+    issues: persisted.issues,
+    milestones: persisted.milestones,
+    deps: persisted.deps,
+    timelines: persisted.timelines,
+    savedAt: persisted.savedAt,
+  } as unknown as Snapshot & { savedAt: string }
+}
+
+/** Agent tool calls tolerate a slightly stale snapshot (seconds) to stay responsive. */
+export const AGENT_SNAPSHOT_TTL_MS = 30_000
+
+// Label cache is reset with the clients (module-level so resetClients can clear it).
+let labelCache: GiteaLabel[] | null = null
+async function resolveLabelIds(client: GiteaClient, names: string[]): Promise<number[]> {
+  const lookup = () => new Map(labelCache!.map((l) => [l.name, l.id]))
+  if (!labelCache) labelCache = await client.listLabels()
+  let byName = lookup()
+  if (names.some((n) => !byName.has(n))) {
+    labelCache = await client.listLabels() // a name we don't know — refetch once
+    byName = lookup()
+  }
+  return names.map((n) => byName.get(n)).filter((id): id is number => id != null)
+}
+
+export function registerGiteaIpc(): void {
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:status', () => {
+    const cfg = resolveConfig()
+    return {
+      configured: !!cfg,
+      repo: cfg ? `${cfg.owner}/${cfg.repo}` : null,
+      demo: process.env.COMMITEA_E2E === '1',
+    }
+  })
+
+  // Instant boot: the last persisted snapshot, shown before the fresh reconcile lands.
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:boot', () => {
+    if (!getGiteaClient()) return { configured: false }
+    const persisted = bootSnapshot()
+    return persisted ? { configured: true, cached: true, ...persisted } : { configured: true, cached: false }
+  })
+
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:reconcile', async () => {
+    const client = getGiteaClient()
+    if (!client) return { configured: false, issues: [], milestones: [], deps: [], timelines: {} }
+    try {
+      // explicit UI sync — force fresh, and warm the cache for agent tool calls
+      const snap = await getSnapshot(client, { maxAgeMs: 0 })
+      return { configured: true, stale: false, ...snap }
+    } catch (e) {
+      // offline / gitea down — serve the last persisted snapshot rather than error out
+      const persisted = bootSnapshot()
+      if (persisted) return { configured: true, stale: true, ...persisted }
+      throw e
+    }
   })
 
   ipcMain.handle('gitea:getIssue', async (_event, index: number) => {
+    const client = getGiteaClient()
     if (!client) return null
     return client.getIssue(index)
   })
+
+  // The write path (apply_changes). Additive label swaps, applied only after the
+  // renderer's propose-approve. Returns the plan + the freshly-read issue.
+  ipcMain.handle('gitea:applyChange', async (_event, change: IssueChange) => {
+    const client = getGiteaClient()
+    if (!client) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+    const current = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
+    const plan = planIssueChange(current.labels, change)
+    if (plan.noop) return { ok: true as const, plan, issue: current }
+    const ids = await resolveLabelIds(client, plan.labels)
+    await client.setIssueLabels(change.issue, ids)
+    const issue = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
+    invalidateSnapshot() // the board + forecast must reflect the label change
+    return { ok: true as const, plan, issue }
+  })
+
+  // capture_work filing: open each approved issue with its est/* + p/* labels.
+  // Only touches the CommiTea label namespaces — no invented labels (zero-pollution).
+  ipcMain.handle(
+    'gitea:createIssues',
+    async (_event, issues: { title: string; body?: string; estimate?: string; priority?: string }[]) => {
+      const client = getGiteaClient()
+      if (!client) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+      const created: { number: number; title: string }[] = []
+      for (const it of issues) {
+        const names = [it.estimate, it.priority].filter((n): n is string => !!n)
+        const labelIds = await resolveLabelIds(client, names)
+        const issue = await client.createIssue({ title: it.title, body: it.body, labelIds })
+        created.push({ number: issue.number, title: issue.title })
+      }
+      if (created.length) invalidateSnapshot() // new issues enter the board/scope
+      return { ok: true as const, created }
+    },
+  )
+
+  // Read the directive ledger from the pm-state repo (for the Directives screen).
+  ipcMain.handle('pmstate:directives', async () => {
+    const pm = getPmStateClient()
+    if (!pm) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+    try {
+      return { ok: true as const, directives: await readDirectives(pm) }
+    } catch (e) {
+      return { ok: false as const, reason: 'error' as const, message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) }
+    }
+  })
+
+  // Read the capacity config from the pm-state repo (for capacity-aware forecasts).
+  ipcMain.handle('pmstate:capacity', async () => {
+    const pm = getPmStateClient()
+    if (!pm) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const, members: [] }
+    try {
+      return { ok: true as const, members: await readCapacity(pm) }
+    } catch {
+      return { ok: true as const, members: [] }
+    }
+  })
+
+  // ---- config (team onboarding) ----
+  ipcMain.handle('config:get', () => publicConfig())
+
+  ipcMain.handle('config:set', (_event, cfg: AppConfig) => {
+    saveConfig(cfg)
+    resetClients() // new config takes effect without a restart
+    return { ok: true as const }
+  })
+
+  ipcMain.handle('config:clear', () => {
+    clearConfig()
+    resetClients()
+    return { ok: true as const }
+  })
+
+  // Validate a token + repo before saving: any authed read on the repo proves access.
+  ipcMain.handle('config:test', async (_event, cfg: AppConfig) => {
+    try {
+      const c = createGiteaClient(
+        { baseUrl: cfg.baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, ''), owner: cfg.owner.trim(), repo: cfg.repo.trim(), token: cfg.token },
+        fetch,
+      )
+      await c.listLabels()
+      return { ok: true as const }
+    } catch (e) {
+      return { ok: false as const, error: e instanceof GiteaApiError ? `${e.status}` : e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) }
+    }
+  })
 }

apps/desktop/src/main/index.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,11 @@ import { join } from 'node:path'
 
 import { BrowserWindow, app, shell } from 'electron'
 
+// Test hook: isolate config/cache to a throwaway dir (must run before any getPath).
+if (process.env.COMMITEA_USERDATA) app.setPath('userData', process.env.COMMITEA_USERDATA)
+
 import { registerGiteaIpc } from './gitea.js'
+import { registerModelIpc } from './model.js'
 
 function createWindow(): void {
   const win = new BrowserWindow({
@@ -35,6 +39,7 @@ function createWindow(): void {
 
 void app.whenReady().then(() => {
   registerGiteaIpc()
+  registerModelIpc()
   createWindow()
 
   app.on('activate', () => {

apps/desktop/src/main/model.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@
+/**
+ * Main-process model bridge — Reginald's brain runs here. Model traffic (like
+ * gitea's) stays in main: the renderer is CSP-locked and never talks to the
+ * LLM directly. On `model:chat` it drives the agent loop against the configured
+ * OpenAI-compatible endpoint, executing `query_project` by reconciling the repo
+ * and building the requested view. v0 is read-only — writes still go through the
+ * propose-approve controls.
+ */
+
+import {
+  buildProjectView,
+  captureWork,
+  type ChangeProposal,
+  type ChatMessage,
+  createChatClient,
+  describeChange,
+  type ModelRouter,
+  type ProjectView,
+  proposalsFor,
+  type ProposeChangeArgs,
+  type QueryFilters,
+  REGINALD_SYSTEM,
+  REGINALD_TOOLS,
+  runAgentTurn,
+  toDirectiveInput,
+} from '@commitea/core'
+import { app, ipcMain } from 'electron'
+
+import { loadConfig } from './config-store.js'
+import {
+  AGENT_SNAPSHOT_TTL_MS,
+  appendDirectiveEntry,
+  getGiteaClient,
+  getPmStateClient,
+  getSnapshot,
+} from './gitea.js'
+
+/** Small local model for prose + the read tool; big model reserved for later decomposition. */
+function resolveModelRouter(): ModelRouter | null {
+  if (process.env.COMMITEA_E2E === '1') return null // e2e uses the scripted fixture Reginald
+  // Config wins (team build); env is the dev override; localhost is a dev convenience only.
+  const baseUrl =
+    loadConfig()?.modelUrl ??
+    process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_URL ??
+    (app.isPackaged ? undefined : 'http://localhost:1234/v1')
+  if (!baseUrl) return null
+  return {
+    small: { baseUrl, model: process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_SMALL ?? '' },
+    big: { baseUrl, model: process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_BIG ?? '' },
+  }
+}
+
+/** Probe the endpoint for a usable model; null when unreachable (chat then stays off). */
+async function probeModel(baseUrl: string): Promise<string | null> {
+  try {
+    const model = await resolveLoadedModel(baseUrl, process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_SMALL ?? '')
+    // resolveLoadedModel only returns a real id when the server answered; the default
+    // fallback means unreachable, so confirm with a lightweight models call.
+    const res = await fetch(`${baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/models`)
+    return res.ok ? model : null
+  } catch {
+    return null
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Resolve which model to actually ask for. An explicit env override wins;
+ * otherwise ask the server which model is *loaded* (LM Studio's native
+ * `/api/v0/models`) so Reginald follows whatever you load — no config churn on a
+ * model switch. Falls back to the first non-embedding model, then a sane default.
+ */
+async function resolveLoadedModel(baseUrl: string, override: string): Promise<string> {
+  if (override) return override
+  const root = baseUrl.replace(/\/v1\/?$/, '')
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch(`${root}/api/v0/models`)
+    if (res.ok) {
+      const data = (await res.json()) as { data?: { id: string; state?: string; type?: string }[] }
+      const loaded = (data.data ?? []).find((m) => m.state === 'loaded' && m.type !== 'embeddings')
+      if (loaded) return loaded.id
+    }
+  } catch {
+    // native API unavailable — fall through to the OpenAI listing
+  }
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch(`${baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/models`)
+    if (res.ok) {
+      const data = (await res.json()) as { data?: { id: string }[] }
+      const first = (data.data ?? []).find((m) => !/embed/i.test(m.id))
+      if (first) return first.id
+    }
+  } catch {
+    // ignore — use the default
+  }
+  return 'google/gemma-4-e4b'
+}
+
+export function registerModelIpc(): void {
+  ipcMain.handle('model:status', async () => {
+    const r = resolveModelRouter() // resolve fresh so a saved modelUrl takes effect
+    if (!r) return { configured: false, model: null }
+    const model = await probeModel(r.small.baseUrl) // only "configured" if a model actually answers
+    return { configured: !!model, model }
+  })
+
+  ipcMain.handle('model:chat', async (event, messages: ChatMessage[]) => {
+    const router = resolveModelRouter()
+    if (!router) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+    const client = getGiteaClient()
+    const model = await resolveLoadedModel(router.small.baseUrl, router.small.model)
+    const chat = createChatClient({ ...router.small, model }, fetch)
+    // stream the model's prose to the renderer token-by-token
+    const onToken = (delta: string) => {
+      if (!event.sender.isDestroyed()) event.sender.send('model:chat:token', delta)
+    }
+
+    // Proposals the model formulates this turn; the renderer approves them (the
+    // write happens through gitea:applyChange, never inside the loop).
+    const proposals: ChangeProposal[] = []
+
+    const execute = async (name: string, args: unknown) => {
+      if (!client) return { error: 'gitea is not configured' }
+      if (name === 'query_project') {
+        // reuse a recent reconcile — a multi-tool turn shouldn't refetch the repo each call
+        const snap = await getSnapshot(client, { maxAgeMs: AGENT_SNAPSHOT_TTL_MS })
+        const a = (args ?? {}) as { view: ProjectView; filters?: QueryFilters }
+        return buildProjectView(a.view, a.filters, snap, new Date())
+      }
+      if (name === 'propose_change') {
+        const a = (args ?? {}) as ProposeChangeArgs
+        const issue = await client.getIssue(a.issue).catch(() => null)
+        if (!issue) return { error: `issue #${a.issue} not found` }
+        const built = proposalsFor(a, issue.labels, issue.title)
+        proposals.push(...built)
+        return built.length
+          ? { proposed: built.map((p) => ({ issue: a.issue, diff: describeChange(p.plan) })) }
+          : { proposed: [], note: 'no change — already at that value' }
+      }
+      if (name === 'record_directive') {
+        const pm = getPmStateClient()
+        if (!pm) return { error: 'pm-state is not configured' }
+        try {
+          const entry = await appendDirectiveEntry(pm, toDirectiveInput(args))
+          return { recorded: { kind: entry.kind, quote: entry.quote } }
+        } catch (e) {
+          return { error: `could not record — is the pm-state repo created? (${e instanceof Error ? e.message : e})` }
+        }
+      }
+      return { error: `unknown tool: ${name}` }
+    }
+
+    try {
+      const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+        complete: (m, t, ot) => chat.complete(m, t, ot),
+        messages: [{ role: 'system', content: REGINALD_SYSTEM }, ...messages],
+        tools: REGINALD_TOOLS,
+        execute,
+        onToken,
+      })
+      return { ok: true as const, content: turn.content, steps: turn.steps, proposals }
+    } catch (e) {
+      return { ok: false as const, reason: 'error' as const, message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) }
+    }
+  })
+
+  // capture_work — braindump → proposed issue set. The big model does the
+  // decomposition (with one loaded local model, that's the loaded one). Returns
+  // a proposal; nothing is filed until the Capture tray approves it.
+  ipcMain.handle('model:capture', async (_event, braindump: string) => {
+    const router = resolveModelRouter()
+    if (!router) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
+    const model = await resolveLoadedModel(router.big.baseUrl, router.big.model)
+    const chat = createChatClient({ ...router.big, model }, fetch)
+    try {
+      const proposal = await captureWork((m, t) => chat.complete(m, t), braindump)
+      return { ok: true as const, ...proposal }
+    } catch (e) {
+      return { ok: false as const, reason: 'error' as const, message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) }
+    }
+  })
+}

apps/desktop/src/main/snapshot-store.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+/**
+ * Durable snapshot store — the reconcile cache, persisted to disk. On boot the
+ * app shows the last snapshot instantly (stale-while-revalidate) instead of a
+ * blank board while ~2N gitea calls run; if gitea is unreachable, reads fall
+ * back to it (offline). It's a rebuildable mirror — the durable truth stays in
+ * gitea (the purity split, D4). A plain JSON file: the whole snapshot fits in
+ * memory at this scale, so indexed SQL buys nothing yet (see the PR).
+ */
+
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { join } from 'node:path'
+
+import { app } from 'electron'
+
+/** The shape we persist — kept loose so a schema drift degrades to "no cache", not a crash. */
+export interface PersistedSnapshot {
+  issues: unknown[]
+  milestones: unknown[]
+  deps: unknown[]
+  timelines: Record<number, unknown[]>
+  /** ISO time the snapshot was reconciled — shown as "cached since". */
+  savedAt: string
+}
+
+function snapshotPath(): string {
+  return join(app.getPath('userData'), 'commitea-snapshot.json')
+}
+
+/** Load the last persisted snapshot, or null if absent/corrupt. Never throws. */
+export function loadSnapshot(): PersistedSnapshot | null {
+  try {
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(readFileSync(snapshotPath(), 'utf8')) as PersistedSnapshot
+    if (parsed && Array.isArray(parsed.issues)) return parsed
+    return null
+  } catch {
+    return null // missing file, bad JSON, or drift — treat as no cache
+  }
+}
+
+/** Persist a freshly reconciled snapshot. Best-effort — a write failure never breaks a reconcile. */
+export function saveSnapshot(snap: Omit<PersistedSnapshot, 'savedAt'>, savedAt: string): void {
+  try {
+    writeFileSync(snapshotPath(), JSON.stringify({ ...snap, savedAt }), 'utf8')
+  } catch {
+    // disk full / permissions — the in-memory cache still works this session
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/preload/index.ts

@@ -5,10 +5,46 @@ const api = {
   gitea: {
     /** Whether the main process has a gitea token + target repo configured. */
     status: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:status'),
+    /** The last persisted snapshot, for instant boot before the fresh reconcile. */
+    boot: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:boot'),
     /** Full read of the managed repo — every issue + milestone. */
     reconcile: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:reconcile'),
     /** One issue by index, normalized (or null if unconfigured). */
     getIssue: (index: number) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:getIssue', index),
+    /** Apply an estimate/priority change (the write path); resolves to the plan + fresh issue. */
+    applyChange: (change: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:applyChange', change),
+    /** File a set of captured issues with their est/* + p/* labels. */
+    createIssues: (issues: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:createIssues', issues),
+  },
+  pmstate: {
+    /** Read the directive ledger from the pm-state repo. */
+    directives: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('pmstate:directives'),
+    /** Read the capacity config from the pm-state repo. */
+    capacity: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('pmstate:capacity'),
+  },
+  config: {
+    /** The saved config (never the token) — null when unset. */
+    get: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('config:get'),
+    /** Validate a token + repo before saving. */
+    test: (cfg: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('config:test', cfg),
+    /** Save config (token encrypted in main); takes effect without restart. */
+    set: (cfg: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('config:set', cfg),
+    /** Forget the saved config. */
+    clear: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('config:clear'),
+  },
+  model: {
+    /** Whether a model endpoint is configured (else the UI keeps the scripted Reginald). */
+    status: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('model:status'),
+    /** One agent turn: messages in, Reginald's prose + the tools it consulted out. */
+    chat: (messages: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('model:chat', messages),
+    /** Subscribe to streamed prose tokens for the in-flight turn; returns an unsubscribe. */
+    onToken: (cb: (delta: string) => void) => {
+      const listener = (_e: unknown, delta: string) => cb(delta)
+      ipcRenderer.on('model:chat:token', listener)
+      return () => ipcRenderer.removeListener('model:chat:token', listener)
+    },
+    /** Decompose a braindump into a proposed issue set (capture_work). */
+    capture: (braindump: string) => ipcRenderer.invoke('model:capture', braindump),
   },
 }
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/charts/chart.tsx

@@ -1,15 +1,21 @@
+import type { BurnUpData } from '../../lib/dates.js'
+
 /**
- * Charts — geometry, not decoration. Ported from the handoff's Chart.js. The
- * fixed sample paths here stand in for scheduler/Monte Carlo output (P2); the
- * shapes (cone from today, 80% band, actual polyline, today rule) are final.
+ * Charts — geometry, not decoration. Ported from the handoff's Chart.js. When a
+ * `data` prop is supplied the cone is drawn from real Monte Carlo output
+ * (#10); without it, the fixed sample paths below stand in (demo mode). The
+ * shapes (cone from today, 80% band, today rule) are final.
  */
 
 export interface BurnUpConeProps {
   width?: number
   height?: number
+  /** Real forecast geometry. When present it replaces the demo sample paths. */
+  data?: BurnUpData
 }
 
-export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220 }: BurnUpConeProps) {
+export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220, data }: BurnUpConeProps) {
+  if (data) return <BurnUpConeReal width={width} height={height} data={data} />
   const pad = { l: 34, r: 96, t: 16, b: 26 }
   const W = width - pad.l - pad.r
   const H = height - pad.t - pad.b
@@ -89,6 +95,62 @@ export function BurnUpCone({ width = 640, height = 220 }: BurnUpConeProps) {
   )
 }
 
+/** Data-driven twin of BurnUpCone — same visual grammar, real forecast geometry. */
+function BurnUpConeReal({ width, height, data }: { width: number; height: number; data: BurnUpData }) {
+  const pad = { l: 34, r: 96, t: 16, b: 26 }
+  const W = width - pad.l - pad.r
+  const H = height - pad.t - pad.b
+  const x = (day: number) => pad.l + (day / data.horizonDays) * W
+  const y = (frac: number) => pad.t + (1 - frac) * H
+
+  const hi = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.hiDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const lo = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.loDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const mid = data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.midDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`).join(' ')
+  const cone = [
+    ...data.band.map((p) => `${x(p.hiDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`),
+    ...[...data.band].reverse().map((p) => `${x(p.loDay)},${y(p.fraction)}`),
+  ].join(' ')
+
+  return (
+    <svg width="100%" viewBox={`0 0 ${width} ${height}`} style={{ display: 'block' }}>
+      {[0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1].map((f) => (
+        <line key={f} x1={pad.l} x2={width - pad.r} y1={y(f)} y2={y(f)} stroke="var(--line-1)" strokeWidth="1" />
+      ))}
+      {/* scope */}
+      <line x1={pad.l} x2={width - pad.r} y1={y(1)} y2={y(1)} stroke="var(--line-2)" strokeWidth="1.5" />
+      <text x={pad.l} y={y(1) - 6} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        scope · {data.scope} {data.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}
+      </text>
+      {/* cone */}
+      <polygon points={cone} fill="var(--cone-fill)" />
+      <polyline points={hi} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.2" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
+      <polyline points={lo} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.2" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
+      <polyline points={mid} fill="none" stroke="var(--cone-line)" strokeWidth="1.4" />
+      {/* origin = today, 0% of remaining scope */}
+      <circle cx={x(0)} cy={y(0)} r="3.5" fill="var(--cone-actual)" />
+      {/* today rule */}
+      <line x1={x(0)} x2={x(0)} y1={pad.t} y2={height - pad.b} stroke="var(--jade)" strokeWidth="1" />
+      <text x={x(0) + 5} y={pad.t + 10} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--jade-7)' }}>
+        today
+      </text>
+      {/* 80% band label */}
+      <text x={width - pad.r + 10} y={y(0.95)} style={{ font: '500 11.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+        80%
+      </text>
+      <text x={width - pad.r + 10} y={y(0.95) + 14} style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-2)' }}>
+        {data.rangeLabel}
+      </text>
+      {/* x labels */}
+      <text x={pad.l} y={height - 8} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        {data.startLabel}
+      </text>
+      <text x={width - pad.r - 34} y={height - 8} style={{ font: '400 10.5px var(--font-mono)', fill: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
+        {data.endLabel}
+      </text>
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
 export interface RunwayBarMilestone {
   tone: 'ok' | 'warn'
   pos: number

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/calibration-screen.tsx

@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { CALIBRATION } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { CALIBRATION, type CalibrationData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Badge, Card, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
-// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones
-export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
-  const c = CALIBRATION
+// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones.
+// `data` (real fit from closed-issue actuals) overrides the demo fixture.
+export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?: CalibrationData }) {
+  const c = data ?? CALIBRATION
 
   // scatter chart geometry
   const W = 420,
@@ -68,7 +69,11 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
             <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Calibration</h1>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.n} closed issues with estimates · evidence, not opinion</p>
           </div>
+          {c.active ? (
             <Badge tone="ok" dot>curve active · n ≥ 20</Badge>
+          ) : (
+            <Badge tone="warn" dot>cold-start · {c.n}/20</Badge>
+          )}
         </header>
       </div>
 
@@ -170,7 +175,9 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
               <span style={{ font: '500 12.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.effect.banded}</span>
             </div>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-              You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.
+              {c.active
+                ? 'You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.'
+                : 'Not enough closed history yet — I’m forecasting from cold-start priors and widening the cone to stay honest. The curve takes over at 20.'}
             </p>
           </Card>
         </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/capture-screen.tsx

@@ -1,8 +1,12 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
+import type { ProposedIssue } from '@commitea/core'
+
 import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, Select, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
-// Capture interview — braindump → interview → approved ticket set (< 2 min)
+// Capture interview — braindump → interview → approved ticket set (< 2 min).
+// With a model configured, "Brew tickets" runs real capture_work decomposition
+// and "Approve all" files the issues in gitea; otherwise the scripted demo runs.
 
 interface Ticket {
   title: string
@@ -30,6 +34,64 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
   const [webEst, setWebEst] = React.useState<string | null>(null)
   const [secs, setSecs] = React.useState(0)
 
+  // live capture_work path (real model + gitea writes)
+  const [live, setLive] = React.useState(false)
+  const [brewing, setBrewing] = React.useState(false)
+  const [liveTickets, setLiveTickets] = React.useState<ProposedIssue[] | null>(null)
+  const [filedCount, setFiledCount] = React.useState(0)
+  const [error, setError] = React.useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  React.useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    window.commitea.model.status().then((s) => { if (alive) setLive(s.configured) }).catch(() => {})
+    return () => { alive = false }
+  }, [])
+
+  const editTicket = (i: number, field: 'estimate' | 'priority', value: string) =>
+    setLiveTickets((ts) => (ts ? ts.map((t, j) => (j === i ? { ...t, [field]: value } : t)) : ts))
+
+  // Decide live-vs-scripted at click time: re-check status if it hasn't resolved
+  // yet, so a configured model never falls into the scripted interview by a race.
+  const onBrew = async () => {
+    const configured = live || (await window.commitea.model.status().then((s) => s.configured).catch(() => false))
+    if (configured) {
+      setLive(true)
+      brew()
+    } else {
+      setStage('interview')
+    }
+  }
+
+  const brew = () => {
+    setError(null)
+    setBrewing(true)
+    window.commitea.model
+      .capture(dump)
+      .then((res) => {
+        setBrewing(false)
+        if (res.ok && res.issues.length) {
+          setLiveTickets(res.issues)
+          setStage('review')
+        } else {
+          setError(res.ok ? 'I could not find concrete work in that — try a bit more detail.' : `Capture failed: ${res.reason === 'error' ? res.message : 'no model'}`)
+        }
+      })
+      .catch(() => { setBrewing(false); setError('I could not reach the model.') })
+  }
+
+  const fileLive = () => {
+    if (!liveTickets) return
+    setBrewing(true)
+    window.commitea.gitea
+      .createIssues(liveTickets)
+      .then((res) => {
+        setBrewing(false)
+        if (res.ok) { setFiledCount(res.created.length); setStage('filed') }
+        else setError('Filing failed — gitea is not configured.')
+      })
+      .catch(() => { setBrewing(false); setError('Filing failed.') })
+  }
+
   const running = stage === 'interview' || stage === 'review'
   React.useEffect(() => {
     if (!running) return
@@ -63,19 +125,23 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
     else setStage('review')
   }
 
-  // draft tickets build as the interview progresses
-  const tickets: Ticket[] = []
+  // draft tickets build as the interview progresses (scripted demo path)
+  const scripted: Ticket[] = []
   if (split === true) {
-    tickets.push({ title: 'Token refresh: retry with backoff', est: 'est/2d', p: 'p/2' })
-    tickets.push({ title: 'Session storage: stale reads on wake', est: 'est/1d', p: 'p/3' })
+    scripted.push({ title: 'Token refresh: retry with backoff', est: 'est/2d', p: 'p/2' })
+    scripted.push({ title: 'Session storage: stale reads on wake', est: 'est/1d', p: 'p/3' })
   } else if (split === false) {
-    tickets.push({ title: 'Auth: token refresh + session storage', est: 'est/3d', p: 'p/2' })
+    scripted.push({ title: 'Auth: token refresh + session storage', est: 'est/3d', p: 'p/2' })
   }
-  if (webEst) tickets.push({ title: 'Webhook debounce: double-fire guard', est: webEst, p: 'p/1', dep: 'blocked by auth work' })
-  if (stage === 'review' || stage === 'filed') {
-    tickets.push({ title: 'Docs: auth setup guide', est: 'est/1d', p: 'p/4', byReginald: true })
+  if (webEst) scripted.push({ title: 'Webhook debounce: double-fire guard', est: webEst, p: 'p/1', dep: 'blocked by auth work' })
+  if (!live && (stage === 'review' || stage === 'filed')) {
+    scripted.push({ title: 'Docs: auth setup guide', est: 'est/1d', p: 'p/4', byReginald: true })
   }
-  const totalDays = tickets.reduce((n, t) => n + parseInt(t.est.replace('est/', '')), 0)
+  // real capture_work output overrides the scripted set when present
+  const tickets: Ticket[] = liveTickets
+    ? liveTickets.map((i) => ({ title: i.title, est: i.estimate ?? 'est/2d', p: i.priority ?? 'p/3' }))
+    : scripted
+  const totalDays = tickets.reduce((n, t) => n + parseInt(t.est.replace('est/', ''), 10), 0)
 
   const estOptions = ['est/1d', 'est/2d', 'est/3d', 'est/5d', 'est/8d'].map((v) => ({ value: v, label: v }))
   const pOptions = ['p/1', 'p/2', 'p/3', 'p/4'].map((v) => ({ value: v, label: v }))
@@ -96,8 +162,20 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
             <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 8, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
               {editable ? (
                 <>
-                  <Select options={estOptions} defaultValue={t.est} style={{ width: 96 }} />
-                  <Select options={pOptions} defaultValue={t.p} style={{ width: 76 }} />
+                  <Select
+                    options={estOptions}
+                    value={liveTickets ? t.est : undefined}
+                    defaultValue={liveTickets ? undefined : t.est}
+                    onChange={(e) => editTicket(i, 'estimate', e.target.value)}
+                    style={{ width: 96 }}
+                  />
+                  <Select
+                    options={pOptions}
+                    value={liveTickets ? t.p : undefined}
+                    defaultValue={liveTickets ? undefined : t.p}
+                    onChange={(e) => editTicket(i, 'priority', e.target.value)}
+                    style={{ width: 76 }}
+                  />
                 </>
               ) : (
                 <>
@@ -144,7 +222,12 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
           <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 14px' }}>
             Sentences, fragments, grievances — all welcome. I'll sort it into tickets and only ask what I can't infer.
           </p>
-          <Button icon="sparkles" onClick={() => setStage('interview')}>Brew tickets</Button>
+          <Button icon="sparkles" onClick={() => void onBrew()} disabled={brewing}>
+            {brewing ? 'Brewing…' : 'Brew tickets'}
+          </Button>
+          {error ? (
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--danger)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>{error}</p>
+          ) : null}
         </Card>
       ) : null}
 
@@ -174,15 +257,26 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
         <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 1.1fr', gap: 14, alignItems: 'start' }}>
           <Card overline="Consequence" title={`${tickets.length} tickets · ~${totalDays}d of work`} jade
                 footer={<>
-                  <Button onClick={() => setStage('filed')}>Approve all</Button>
-                  <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => { setStage('dump'); setQi(0); setLog([]); setSplit(null); setWebEst(null); setSecs(0); }}>Discard</Button>
+                  <Button onClick={() => (live ? fileLive() : setStage('filed'))} disabled={brewing}>
+                    {brewing ? 'Filing…' : 'Approve all'}
+                  </Button>
+                  <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => { setStage('dump'); setQi(0); setLog([]); setSplit(null); setWebEst(null); setSecs(0); setLiveTickets(null); setError(null); }}>Discard</Button>
                 </>}>
+            {live ? (
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
+                {tickets.length} issue{tickets.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} from your braindump, estimated and prioritized.
+                Adjust the labels, then approve — I'll open them in gitea with only est/* and p/* labels.
+              </p>
+            ) : (
+              <>
                 <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', margin: '0 0 8px' }}>
                   Beta's 80% window moves <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)' }}>Mar 3–12 → Mar 5–14</span>. Capacity absorbs the rest.
                 </p>
                 <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
                   I added the docs ticket you mentioned and wired the dependency. Shall I make it so?
                 </p>
+              </>
+            )}
           </Card>
           <Tray editable />
         </div>
@@ -195,7 +289,7 @@ export function CaptureScreen({ onDone }: { onDone: () => void }) {
               <Icon name="circle-check" size={22} /> Filed
             </span>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', margin: 0 }}>
-              {tickets.length} issues opened in gitea with <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)' }}>est/*</span> and <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)' }}>p/*</span> labels — nothing else touched.
+              {live ? filedCount : tickets.length} issues opened in gitea with <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)' }}>est/*</span> and <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)' }}>p/*</span> labels — nothing else touched.
             </p>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>
               Elapsed {clock} — under budget. No bot comments, no synthetic issues; your repo remains yours.

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/connect-screen.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+import React from 'react'
+
+import type { PublicConfig } from '../../global.js'
+import logoIcon from '../../design/assets/logo-icon.png'
+import { Button, Card, Input } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+/**
+ * Real onboarding — each teammate connects their own Gitea with a personal access
+ * token. The token is validated (an authed read on the repo) then saved encrypted
+ * in the main process (never exposed to this renderer). Optional model URL wires
+ * Reginald; leave it blank and chat simply stays off.
+ */
+export function ConnectScreen({ onConnected, existing }: { onConnected: () => void; existing?: PublicConfig | null }) {
+  const [baseUrl, setBaseUrl] = React.useState(existing?.baseUrl ?? 'https://gitea.stephenmann.io')
+  const [owner, setOwner] = React.useState(existing?.owner ?? '')
+  const [repo, setRepo] = React.useState(existing?.repo ?? '')
+  const [token, setToken] = React.useState('')
+  const [modelUrl, setModelUrl] = React.useState(existing?.modelUrl ?? '')
+  const [state, setState] = React.useState<'idle' | 'testing' | 'saving'>('idle')
+  const [error, setError] = React.useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  const cfg = () => ({ baseUrl, owner, repo, token, modelUrl: modelUrl.trim() || undefined })
+  const ready = baseUrl.trim() && owner.trim() && repo.trim() && (token.trim() || existing?.hasToken)
+
+  const connect = async () => {
+    setError(null)
+    setState('testing')
+    // reuse the saved token when editing and the field is left blank
+    const payload = token.trim() ? cfg() : { ...cfg(), token: '' }
+    if (token.trim()) {
+      const test = await window.commitea.config.test(cfg()).catch(() => ({ ok: false, error: 'unreachable' }))
+      if (!test.ok) {
+        setState('idle')
+        setError(
+          test.error === '404'
+            ? "Couldn't find that repo — check owner/name and that the token can see it."
+            : test.error === '401' || test.error === '403'
+              ? 'The token was rejected — check it has repo + issue scopes.'
+              : `Connection failed${test.error ? ` (${test.error})` : ''}.`,
+        )
+        return
+      }
+    }
+    setState('saving')
+    await window.commitea.config.set(payload)
+    onConnected()
+  }
+
+  const field = (
+    label: string,
+    value: string,
+    set: (v: string) => void,
+    opts: { placeholder?: string; type?: string; hint?: string } = {},
+  ) => (
+    <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 5 }}>
+      <Input
+        label={label}
+        value={value}
+        type={opts.type}
+        placeholder={opts.placeholder}
+        onChange={(e) => set(e.target.value)}
+      />
+      {opts.hint ? <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>{opts.hint}</span> : null}
+    </div>
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      style={{
+        height: '100vh',
+        display: 'flex',
+        alignItems: 'center',
+        justifyContent: 'center',
+        background: 'var(--surface-app)',
+        padding: 24,
+      }}
+    >
+      <Card style={{ width: 460, maxWidth: '100%' }}>
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 10, marginBottom: 6 }}>
+          <img src={logoIcon} width="28" height="28" alt="" style={{ borderRadius: 7, display: 'block' }} />
+          <span style={{ font: '400 24px/1 var(--font-serif-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+            Commi<span style={{ color: 'var(--accent-text)' }}>Tea</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-body)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '0 0 18px' }}>
+          Connect your Gitea. Your token is stored encrypted on this machine and never leaves it.
+        </p>
+
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
+          {field('Gitea URL', baseUrl, setBaseUrl, { placeholder: 'https://gitea.example.com' })}
+          <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 1fr', gap: 12 }}>
+            {field('Owner', owner, setOwner, { placeholder: 'your-org' })}
+            {field('Repository', repo, setRepo, { placeholder: 'your-repo' })}
+          </div>
+          {field('Access token', token, setToken, {
+            type: 'password',
+            placeholder: existing?.hasToken ? '•••••••• (saved — leave blank to keep)' : 'gitea PAT · scopes: repo + issue',
+          })}
+          {field('Model URL', modelUrl, setModelUrl, {
+            placeholder: 'http://localhost:1234/v1',
+            hint: 'Optional — an OpenAI-compatible endpoint for Reginald. Leave blank to keep chat off.',
+          })}
+        </div>
+
+        {error ? (
+          <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--danger)', margin: '12px 0 0' }}>{error}</p>
+        ) : null}
+
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 10, marginTop: 18 }}>
+          <Button onClick={() => void connect()} disabled={!ready || state !== 'idle'}>
+            {state === 'testing' ? 'Checking…' : state === 'saving' ? 'Connecting…' : existing ? 'Save' : 'Connect'}
+          </Button>
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/directives-screen.tsx

@@ -8,6 +8,35 @@ export function DirectivesScreen() {
   const [pending, setPending] = React.useState<DirectivePending | null>(DIRECTIVES.pending)
   const [entries, setEntries] = React.useState<DirectiveEntry[]>(DIRECTIVES.entries)
 
+  // Real ledger from the pm-state repo, when it exists — else the fixture demo.
+  React.useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    window.commitea.pmstate
+      .directives()
+      .then((r) => {
+        if (!alive || !r.ok || r.directives.length === 0) return
+        setPending(null)
+        setEntries(
+          r.directives
+            .slice()
+            .reverse()
+            .map((d) => ({
+              seq: d.seq,
+              who: 'You',
+              when: new Date(d.ts).toLocaleDateString(),
+              what: d.quote,
+              why: d.rationale ?? '',
+              status: d.status === 'accepted' ? 'applied' : d.status === 'withdrawn' ? 'withdrawn' : 'superseded',
+              consequence: '',
+            })),
+        )
+      })
+      .catch(() => {})
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+    }
+  }, [])
+
   const resolve = (status: string) => {
     setEntries((e) => [{
       seq: pending!.seq, who: pending!.who, when: pending!.when, what: pending!.what, why: 'pilot demo on the 14th',

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/focus-screen.tsx

@@ -1,21 +1,23 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
 import { FOCUS, type FocusIssue, type IssueRef, TODAY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { type FocusView } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
+import { type ForecastView, type FocusView } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { BurnUpCone } from '../charts/chart.js'
 import { Badge, Button, Card, IconButton, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 /**
- * Morning service — the Now/Next/Later focus cards + the milestone burn-up cone.
- * `focus` (real scheduler output) overrides the demo fixture when gitea is
- * configured; the burn-up cone stays fixture until Monte Carlo (P2 next slice).
+ * Morning service — the Now/Next/Later focus cards + the burn-up cone.
+ * `focus` (scheduler) and `forecast` (Monte Carlo) override the demo fixtures
+ * when gitea is configured; both fall back to the handoff demo otherwise.
  */
 export function FocusScreen({
   onOpenIssue,
   focus,
+  forecast,
 }: {
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
   focus?: FocusView
+  forecast?: ForecastView
 }) {
   const view: FocusView = focus ?? { now: FOCUS.now, next: FOCUS.next, later: FOCUS.later }
   const FocusRow = ({ slot, issue, jade }: { slot: string; issue: FocusIssue; jade?: boolean }) => (
@@ -94,13 +96,23 @@ export function FocusScreen({
       </div>
 
       <Card
-        overline="Milestone · Beta"
-        title={<>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 3–12</span></>}
+        overline={forecast ? 'Backlog · open scope' : 'Milestone · Beta'}
+        title={
+          forecast ? (
+            <>80% of the open backlog lands by <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{forecast.rangeLabel}</span></>
+          ) : (
+            <>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 3–12</span></>
+          )
+        }
         actions={<IconButton icon="chart-line" label="Open runway" size="sm" />}
       >
-        <BurnUpCone />
+        <BurnUpCone data={forecast?.cone} />
         <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-          The cone has narrowed since Friday. I’m quietly pleased.
+          {forecast
+            ? forecast.coldStart
+              ? `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope. Cold-start priors — ${forecast.calibratedN}/20 estimated closes so far; the cone tightens as the team closes work.`
+              : `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope, calibrated on ${forecast.calibratedN} closed ${forecast.calibratedN === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} of your own.`
+            : 'The cone has narrowed since Friday. I’m quietly pleased.'}
         </p>
       </Card>
     </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/issue-screen.tsx

@@ -1,17 +1,33 @@
 // Issue detail — human intent (gitea) on the left, machine-derived (pm-state) on the right
-import React from 'react'
+import React, { useState } from 'react'
+
+import {
+  describeChange,
+  type EstimateLabel,
+  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
+  type IssueChange,
+  planIssueChange,
+  type PriorityLabel,
+  PRIORITY_LABELS,
+} from '@commitea/core'
 
 import { ISSUE_DETAIL, type IssueDetail, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+import { Badge, Button, Card, Dialog, Icon, Select, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
+
+const NONE = '—'
 
 export function IssueScreen({
   issue,
   onBack,
   onOpenIssue,
+  canWrite = false,
+  onApplyChange,
 }: {
   issue: IssueRef
   onBack: () => void
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
+  canWrite?: boolean
+  onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
 }) {
   const det: IssueDetail = ISSUE_DETAIL[issue.id] || {
     state: 'triage',
@@ -40,6 +56,44 @@ export function IssueScreen({
     } as Record<string, { tone: 'warn' | 'neutral' | 'info' | 'ok'; label: string }>
   )[det.state] || { tone: 'neutral', label: det.state }
 
+  // ---- propose-approve write path (apply_changes) ----
+  const labels = issue.labels ?? []
+  const curEstimate = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('est/')) ?? ''
+  const curPriority = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('p/')) ?? ''
+  const [adjustOpen, setAdjustOpen] = useState(false)
+  const [estimate, setEstimate] = useState(curEstimate)
+  const [priority, setPriority] = useState(curPriority)
+  const [applying, setApplying] = useState(false)
+
+  const openAdjust = () => {
+    setEstimate(curEstimate)
+    setPriority(curPriority)
+    setAdjustOpen(true)
+  }
+
+  // the concrete changes this dialog would apply, one per axis that differs
+  const pendingChanges: IssueChange[] = []
+  if (estimate !== curEstimate)
+    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reestimate', issue: issue.id, estimate: (estimate || null) as EstimateLabel | null })
+  if (priority !== curPriority)
+    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reprioritize', issue: issue.id, priority: (priority || null) as PriorityLabel | null })
+
+  const diffs = pendingChanges.map((c) => describeChange(planIssueChange(labels, c)))
+
+  const apply = async () => {
+    if (!onApplyChange || pendingChanges.length === 0) return
+    setApplying(true)
+    try {
+      for (const c of pendingChanges) await onApplyChange(c)
+      setAdjustOpen(false)
+    } finally {
+      setApplying(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const estOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...ESTIMATE_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
+  const prioOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...PRIORITY_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
+
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       {/* breadcrumb + header */}
@@ -65,10 +119,69 @@ export function IssueScreen({
               </span>
             </div>
           </div>
+          <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 8, flexShrink: 0 }}>
+            {canWrite ? (
+              <Button variant="secondary" icon="pencil" onClick={openAdjust}>
+                Adjust
+              </Button>
+            ) : null}
             <Button variant="secondary" icon="arrow-up-right">Open in Gitea</Button>
+          </div>
         </header>
       </div>
 
+      <Dialog
+        open={adjustOpen}
+        onClose={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}
+        title="Adjust estimate & priority"
+        footer={
+          <>
+            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}>
+              Cancel
+            </Button>
+            <Button onClick={apply} disabled={pendingChanges.length === 0 || applying}>
+              {applying ? 'Applying…' : 'Apply to gitea'}
+            </Button>
+          </>
+        }
+      >
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 14 }}>
+          <Select
+            label="Estimate"
+            options={estOptions}
+            value={estimate}
+            onChange={(e) => setEstimate(e.target.value)}
+          />
+          <Select
+            label="Priority"
+            options={prioOptions}
+            value={priority}
+            onChange={(e) => setPriority(e.target.value)}
+          />
+        </div>
+        <div style={{ marginTop: 14, minHeight: 40 }}>
+          {pendingChanges.length === 0 ? (
+            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>
+              No change yet — pick a different estimate or priority.
+            </p>
+          ) : (
+            <>
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '0 0 6px' }}>
+                Proposed label change
+              </p>
+              {diffs.map((d) => (
+                <div key={d} style={{ font: '500 13px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
+                  {d}
+                </div>
+              ))}
+              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '8px 0 0' }}>
+                Writes the label to gitea and re-runs the plan. Nothing else changes.
+              </p>
+            </>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      </Dialog>
+
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 300px', gap: 16, alignItems: 'start' }}>
         {/* left: human intent */}
         <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/milestone-screen.tsx

@@ -1,22 +1,44 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
 import { COLUMNS, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { type MilestoneView } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { BurnUpCone } from '../charts/chart.js'
 import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
-// Milestone detail — scope, cone, issues; forecasts stay ranges
-export function MilestoneScreen({ onBack, onOpenIssue }: { onBack: () => void; onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void }) {
+// Milestone detail — scope, cone, issues; forecasts stay ranges.
+// `data` (real milestone forecast) overrides the demo fixture when present.
+export function MilestoneScreen({
+  onBack,
+  onOpenIssue,
+  data,
+}: {
+  onBack: () => void
+  onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
+  data?: MilestoneView
+}) {
   const cols = COLUMNS
   const byState = (ids: number[]) =>
     cols.flatMap((c) => c.issues.map((i) => ({ ...i, col: c.label }))).filter((i) => ids.includes(i.id))
 
-  const groups = [
+  const fixtureGroups = [
     { label: 'Steeping', issues: byState([87, 84]) },
     { label: 'In review', issues: byState([92]) },
     { label: 'Queued', issues: byState([102, 103, 99, 96, 78]) },
     { label: 'Done', issues: byState([71, 69, 65]), muted: true },
   ]
 
+  // real or demo, in one shape the render loop understands
+  const groups = data
+    ? data.groups.map((g) => ({ label: g.label, issues: g.issues, muted: g.label === 'Done' }))
+    : fixtureGroups
+  const name = data ? data.name : 'Beta'
+  const dueLine = data
+    ? `milestone · due ${data.due} · ${data.soft ? 'soft — scope may flex' : 'hard deadline'}`
+    : 'milestone · due Mar 15 · soft — scope may flex'
+  const forecastLabel = data ? (data.forecastRange ? `80% ${data.forecastRange}` : 'all shipped') : '80% Mar 3–12'
+  const scopeStat = data ? `${data.scopeCount} issues · est ${data.scopeEstDays}d` : '42 issues · est 61d'
+  const doneStat = data ? `${data.doneCount} · ${data.donePct}%` : '24 · 57%'
+
   const Stat = ({ label, value, tone }: { label: string; value: string; tone?: string }) => (
     <div style={{ flex: 1, padding: '12px 18px', borderRight: '1px solid var(--line-1)' }}>
       <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', marginBottom: 5 }}>{label}</div>
@@ -36,12 +58,12 @@ export function MilestoneScreen({ onBack, onOpenIssue }: { onBack: () => void; o
         <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14, display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 16 }}>
           <div style={{ flex: 1, minWidth: 0 }}>
             <p style={{ font: '400 12px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '0 0 6px', display: 'inline-flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 6 }}>
-              <Icon name="milestone" size={13} /> milestone · due Mar 15 · soft — scope may flex
+              <Icon name="milestone" size={13} /> {dueLine}
             </p>
-            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Beta</h1>
+            <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>{name}</h1>
             <div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 8, marginTop: 10 }}>
-              <Badge tone="ok" dot>ahead of forecast</Badge>
-              <span style={{ font: '400 12px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>80% Mar 3–12</span>
+              <Badge tone="ok" dot>{data ? `${data.doneCount}/${data.scopeCount} done` : 'ahead of forecast'}</Badge>
+              <span style={{ font: '400 12px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{forecastLabel}</span>
             </div>
           </div>
           <Button variant="secondary" icon="arrow-up-right">Open in Gitea</Button>
@@ -51,21 +73,25 @@ export function MilestoneScreen({ onBack, onOpenIssue }: { onBack: () => void; o
       {/* stats strip */}
       <Card flush>
         <div style={{ display: 'flex' }}>
-          <Stat label="Scope" value="42 issues · est 61d" />
-          <Stat label="Done" value="24 · 57%" />
-          <Stat label="Forecast" value="80% Mar 3–12" />
+          <Stat label="Scope" value={scopeStat} />
+          <Stat label="Done" value={doneStat} />
+          <Stat label="Forecast" value={forecastLabel} />
           <div style={{ flex: 1, padding: '12px 18px' }}>
-            <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', marginBottom: 5 }}>Drift · 7d</div>
-            <div style={{ font: '500 14px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ok)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>−2d · cone narrowed</div>
+            <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', marginBottom: 5 }}>Remaining</div>
+            <div style={{ font: '500 14px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{data ? `${data.scopeCount - data.doneCount} open` : '−2d · cone narrowed'}</div>
           </div>
         </div>
       </Card>
 
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1.2fr 1fr', gap: 14, alignItems: 'start' }}>
-        <Card overline="Burn-up" title={<>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 3–12</span></>} jade>
-          <BurnUpCone />
+        <Card overline="Burn-up" title={<>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{data ? (data.forecastRange ?? 'shipped') : 'Mar 3–12'}</span></>} jade>
+          <BurnUpCone data={data?.cone ?? undefined} />
           <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-            Comfortably ahead. Beta needs #87 more than it needs my commentary.
+            {data
+              ? data.cone
+                ? `${data.scopeCount - data.doneCount} open of ${data.scopeCount}. Cone over what's left.`
+                : 'Everything here has shipped.'
+              : 'Comfortably ahead. Beta needs #87 more than it needs my commentary.'}
           </p>
         </Card>
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/runway-screen.tsx

@@ -1,28 +1,51 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
+import { type CapacityMember, capacityPerWorkday } from '@commitea/core'
+
 import { RunwayBar } from '../charts/chart.js'
 import { Card, Badge, Tag, Icon, IconButton } from '../ui/index.js'
-import { RUNWAY, CAPACITY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { RUNWAY, CAPACITY, type RunwayMilestone } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 
-// Runway — capacity vs milestone dates; ranges, never points
+// Runway — capacity vs milestone dates; ranges, never points.
+// `milestones` (real per-milestone forecasts) + `capacity` (real config) override the demo.
 export function RunwayScreen({
   onOpenCalibration,
   onOpenMilestone,
+  calibration,
+  milestones,
+  capacity,
 }: {
   onOpenCalibration: () => void
-  onOpenMilestone: () => void
+  onOpenMilestone: (id?: number) => void
+  calibration?: { n: number; coldStart: boolean }
+  milestones?: RunwayMilestone[]
+  capacity?: CapacityMember[]
 }) {
+  const rows = milestones && milestones.length ? milestones : RUNWAY
+  const capacityRows =
+    capacity && capacity.length
+      ? capacity.map((m) => ({
+          who: m.person,
+          slices: `focus ${m.focusFactor} · alloc ${Math.round(m.allocation * 100)}%`,
+          hours: `${capacityPerWorkday(m).toFixed(2)} pd/day`,
+        }))
+      : CAPACITY
+  const calibNote = calibration
+    ? calibration.coldStart
+      ? `cold-start priors · ${calibration.n}/20 closed issues estimated`
+      : `calibrated on ${calibration.n} closed ${calibration.n === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}`
+    : 'calibrated on 27 closed issues'
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14 }}>
         <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Runway</h1>
-        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · calibrated on 27 closed issues</p>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · {calibNote}</p>
       </header>
 
       <Card overline="Milestones" flush>
         <div>
-          {RUNWAY.map((m, i) => (
-            <div key={m.name} onClick={onOpenMilestone} style={{
+          {rows.map((m, i) => (
+            <div key={m.name} onClick={() => onOpenMilestone(m.id)} style={{
               display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '160px 1fr 150px 90px', gap: 16, alignItems: 'center', cursor: 'pointer',
               padding: '14px 20px', borderTop: i === 0 ? 'none' : '1px solid var(--line-1)',
             }}
@@ -48,7 +71,7 @@ export function RunwayScreen({
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 1fr', gap: 14, alignItems: 'start' }}>
         <Card overline="Capacity" flush>
           <div>
-            {CAPACITY.map((p, i) => (
+            {capacityRows.map((p, i) => (
               <div key={p.who} style={{
                 display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 12, padding: '12px 20px',
                 borderTop: i === 0 ? 'none' : '1px solid var(--line-1)',

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/settings-screen.tsx

@@ -1,9 +1,22 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
+import type { PublicConfig } from '../../global.js'
 import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, IconButton, Input, Radio, Select, Switch, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 // Settings — gitea connection, sync, model roles, labels, rituals, appearance
-export function SettingsScreen({ dark, setDark }: { dark: boolean; setDark: (v: boolean) => void }) {
+export function SettingsScreen({
+  dark,
+  setDark,
+  connection,
+  onReconnect,
+  onDisconnect,
+}: {
+  dark: boolean
+  setDark: (v: boolean) => void
+  connection?: PublicConfig | null
+  onReconnect?: () => void
+  onDisconnect?: () => void
+}) {
   const [webhooks, setWebhooks] = React.useState(true)
   const [reconcile, setReconcile] = React.useState(true)
   const [poll, setPoll] = React.useState(true)
@@ -24,25 +37,35 @@ export function SettingsScreen({ dark, setDark }: { dark: boolean; setDark: (v:
       </header>
 
       <Card overline="Gitea" title="Connection">
-        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 14 }}>
-          <Input label="Base URL" icon="link" mono defaultValue="https://gitea.stephenmann.io" />
-          <Input label="Access token" icon="keyboard" mono type="password" defaultValue="ct_9f2e81c4a7d6" hint="Scopes: repo, issue. Nothing more." />
-          <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 8 }}>
-            <span style={{ font: '600 13px/1.2 var(--font-sans)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>Managed repos</span>
+        <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
+          {connection ? (
+            <>
               <Row style={{ padding: '8px 12px', background: 'var(--paper-0)', border: '1px solid var(--line-1)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)' }}>
                 <Icon name="git-branch" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ink-3)' }} />
-              <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>stephen/commitea</span>
-              <Badge tone="ok" dot>syncing</Badge>
-              <IconButton icon="x" label="Stop managing" size="sm" />
+                <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>{connection.owner}/{connection.repo}</span>
+                <Badge tone="ok" dot>connected</Badge>
               </Row>
-            <Row style={{ padding: '8px 12px', background: 'var(--paper-0)', border: '1px solid var(--line-1)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)' }}>
-              <Icon name="layers" size={14} style={{ color: 'var(--ink-3)' }} />
-              <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', flex: 1 }}>stephen/pm-state</span>
-              <Badge>sidecar</Badge>
+              <Row style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', gap: 6 }}>
+                <Icon name="link" size={12} />{connection.baseUrl}
               </Row>
-            <Note>The sidecar holds machine-derived state only. Delete it and resync — no truth is lost.</Note>
-            <Button variant="secondary" size="sm" icon="plus" style={{ alignSelf: 'flex-start' }}>Add repo</Button>
-          </div>
+              <Row style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', gap: 6 }}>
+                <Icon name="layers" size={12} />sidecar: {connection.pmStateRepo ?? `${connection.repo}-pm-state`}
+              </Row>
+              <Row style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', gap: 6 }}>
+                <Icon name="sparkles" size={12} />model: {connection.modelUrl ?? 'not set — chat off'}
+              </Row>
+              <Note>Your token is stored encrypted on this machine. Delete the sidecar and resync — no truth is lost.</Note>
+              <Row style={{ gap: 8, marginTop: 2 }}>
+                <Button variant="secondary" size="sm" icon="settings-2" onClick={onReconnect}>Reconfigure</Button>
+                <Button variant="ghost" size="sm" onClick={onDisconnect}>Disconnect</Button>
+              </Row>
+            </>
+          ) : (
+            <Row style={{ gap: 8 }}>
+              <Note>Not connected.</Note>
+              <Button variant="secondary" size="sm" onClick={onReconnect}>Connect</Button>
+            </Row>
+          )}
         </div>
       </Card>
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/shell/app-shell.tsx

@@ -1,9 +1,22 @@
 import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
 import logoIcon from '../../design/assets/logo-icon.png'
+import type { IssueChange } from '@commitea/core'
+
+import type { PublicConfig } from '../../global.js'
 import type { IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { issuesToBoardColumns, scheduleFocus } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
+import { ConnectScreen } from '../screens/connect-screen.js'
+import {
+  backlogCalibration,
+  capacityWorkers,
+  forecastBacklog,
+  issuesToBoardColumns,
+  milestoneView,
+  runwayView,
+  scheduleFocus,
+} from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { useBacklog } from '../../lib/use-backlog.js'
+import { useCapacity } from '../../lib/use-capacity.js'
 import { PrimitivesGallery } from '../gallery.js'
 import { BoardScreen } from '../screens/board-screen.js'
 import { CalibrationScreen } from '../screens/calibration-screen.js'
@@ -85,20 +98,71 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const [offline, setOffline] = useState(false)
   const [issue, setIssue] = useState<IssueRef | null>(null)
   const [readIds, setReadIds] = useState<number[]>([])
-  const backlog = useBacklog()
-  const boardColumns = backlog.status === 'ready' ? issuesToBoardColumns(backlog.issues) : undefined
-  const focus = backlog.status === 'ready' ? scheduleFocus(backlog.issues, backlog.deps) : undefined
+  const [milestoneId, setMilestoneId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [gate, setGate] = useState<'checking' | 'connect' | 'ready'>('checking')
+  const [pubConfig, setPubConfig] = useState<PublicConfig | null>(null)
+  const [backlog, refetchBacklog] = useBacklog()
+  const capacityMembers = useCapacity()
+  const workers = capacityWorkers(capacityMembers)
+  const boardColumns =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? issuesToBoardColumns(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const focus =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? scheduleFocus(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const calibration =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? backlogCalibration(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
+  const forecast =
+    backlog.status === 'ready'
+      ? (forecastBacklog(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, new Date(), calibration?.model, workers) ?? undefined)
+      : undefined
+  const runwayMilestones =
+    backlog.status === 'ready'
+      ? runwayView(backlog.issues, backlog.milestones, backlog.deps, new Date(), workers)
+      : undefined
+  const milestone =
+    backlog.status === 'ready' && milestoneId != null
+      ? (milestoneView(
+          milestoneId,
+          backlog.issues,
+          backlog.milestones,
+          backlog.deps,
+          backlog.timelines,
+          calibration?.model,
+          new Date(),
+          workers,
+        ) ?? undefined)
+      : undefined
 
   useEffect(() => {
     document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme', dark ? 'dark' : 'light')
   }, [dark])
 
+  // Gate: e2e/demo → the shell (fixtures); configured → the shell (real data);
+  // otherwise → the connect screen (each teammate brings their own token).
+  useEffect(() => {
+    window.commitea.gitea
+      .status()
+      .then((s) => setGate(s.demo || s.configured ? 'ready' : 'connect'))
+      .catch(() => setGate('connect'))
+    window.commitea.config.get().then(setPubConfig).catch(() => {})
+  }, [])
+
   const openIssue = (ref: IssueRef) => {
     if (view !== 'issue') setPrevView(view)
     setIssue(ref)
     setView('issue')
   }
 
+  // The write path: apply through the bridge, reflect the new labels on the open
+  // issue immediately, and re-reconcile so the board + forecast catch up.
+  const applyChange = async (change: IssueChange) => {
+    const res = await window.commitea.gitea.applyChange(change)
+    if (res.ok) {
+      setIssue((cur) => (cur && cur.id === res.issue.number ? { ...cur, labels: res.issue.labels } : cur))
+      refetchBacklog()
+    }
+    return res
+  }
+
   const NAV: NavEntry[] = [
     { id: 'standup', label: 'Standup', icon: 'sun' },
     { id: 'focus', label: 'Morning service', icon: 'coffee' },
@@ -158,7 +222,7 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const renderScreen = () => {
     switch (view) {
       case 'focus':
-        return <FocusScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} focus={focus} />
+        return <FocusScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} focus={focus} forecast={forecast} />
       case 'standup':
         return <StandupScreen onBegin={() => setView('focus')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
       case 'board':
@@ -173,13 +237,19 @@ export function AppShell() {
         return (
           <RunwayScreen
             onOpenCalibration={() => setView('calibration')}
-            onOpenMilestone={() => setView('milestone')}
+            onOpenMilestone={(id) => {
+              setMilestoneId(id ?? null)
+              setView('milestone')
+            }}
+            calibration={calibration ? { n: calibration.model.n, coldStart: calibration.model.coldStart } : undefined}
+            milestones={runwayMilestones}
+            capacity={capacityMembers}
           />
         )
       case 'calibration':
-        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} />
+        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} data={calibration?.data} />
       case 'milestone':
-        return <MilestoneScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
+        return <MilestoneScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} data={milestone} />
       case 'inbox':
         return (
           <InboxScreen
@@ -194,10 +264,29 @@ export function AppShell() {
       case 'directives':
         return <DirectivesScreen />
       case 'settings':
-        return <SettingsScreen dark={dark} setDark={setDark} />
+        return (
+          <SettingsScreen
+            dark={dark}
+            setDark={setDark}
+            connection={pubConfig}
+            onReconnect={() => setGate('connect')}
+            onDisconnect={() => {
+              void window.commitea.config.clear().then(() => {
+                setPubConfig(null)
+                setGate('connect')
+              })
+            }}
+          />
+        )
       case 'issue':
         return issue ? (
-          <IssueScreen issue={issue} onBack={() => setView(prevView)} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
+          <IssueScreen
+            issue={issue}
+            onBack={() => setView(prevView)}
+            onOpenIssue={openIssue}
+            canWrite={backlog.status === 'ready'}
+            onApplyChange={applyChange}
+          />
         ) : null
       case 'states':
         return <StatesScreen onCapture={() => setView('capture')} />
@@ -208,6 +297,23 @@ export function AppShell() {
     }
   }
 
+  // Connection gate (real onboarding) comes before everything else.
+  if (gate === 'checking') {
+    return <div style={{ height: '100vh', background: 'var(--surface-app)' }} />
+  }
+  if (gate === 'connect') {
+    return (
+      <ConnectScreen
+        existing={pubConfig}
+        onConnected={() => {
+          window.commitea.config.get().then(setPubConfig).catch(() => {})
+          setGate('ready')
+          refetchBacklog()
+        }}
+      />
+    )
+  }
+
   // First run is full-window — no rail, no chat panel
   if (view === 'firstrun') {
     return <OnboardingScreen onDone={(dest) => setView(dest)} />
@@ -309,7 +415,7 @@ export function AppShell() {
         </div>
       </main>
 
-      <ChatPanel onOpenDirectives={() => setView('directives')} offline={offline} />
+      <ChatPanel onOpenDirectives={() => setView('directives')} offline={offline} onApplyChange={applyChange} />
     </div>
   )
 }

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/shell/chat-panel.tsx

@@ -1,39 +1,40 @@
 import React, { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react'
 
-import { CANNED_REPLY, CHAT, type ChatMessage } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { Icon, IconButton } from '../ui/index.js'
+import { describeChange, type IssueChange } from '@commitea/core'
+
+import { useChat } from '../../lib/use-chat.js'
+import { Button, Icon, IconButton } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 /**
- * Reginald's panel — chat is the write-path (decisions.md D1). This is the P3-2
- * fixture shell: it echoes a canned reply so the layout + interactions are real,
- * but no model is wired. P4 replaces `send` with the model router + tools.
+ * Reginald's panel — chat is the write-path (decisions.md D1). Wired to the
+ * model bridge via `useChat`: a configured model drives a real agent turn
+ * (query_project + prose, propose_change for edits); otherwise it echoes the
+ * scripted fixture reply. Proposed changes are approved inline here — the write
+ * runs through `onApplyChange`, the same guarded handler the Issue screen uses.
  */
 export interface ChatPanelProps {
   onOpenDirectives?: () => void
   offline?: boolean
+  onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
 }
 
-export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline }: ChatPanelProps) {
-  const [msgs, setMsgs] = useState<ChatMessage[]>(CHAT)
+export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline, onApplyChange }: ChatPanelProps) {
+  const { msgs, thinking, live, model, steps, proposals, streaming, send: sendChat, approve, dismiss } = useChat(onApplyChange)
+  // shorten "google/gemma-4-26b-a4b-qat" → "gemma-4-26b" for the header chip
+  const modelLabel = model ? (model.split('/').pop() ?? model).replace(/-(qat|instruct|it|gguf)$/i, '') : 'gemma-4'
   const [text, setText] = useState('')
-  const [thinking, setThinking] = useState(false)
   const scrollRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null)
 
   useEffect(() => {
     const el = scrollRef.current
     if (el) el.scrollTop = el.scrollHeight
-  }, [msgs, thinking])
+  }, [msgs, thinking, streaming])
 
   const send = () => {
     const t = text.trim()
     if (!t) return
-    setMsgs((m) => [...m, { from: 'user', text: t }])
     setText('')
-    setThinking(true)
-    setTimeout(() => {
-      setThinking(false)
-      setMsgs((m) => [...m, { from: 'agent', text: CANNED_REPLY }])
-    }, 900)
+    sendChat(t)
   }
 
   return (
@@ -61,7 +62,7 @@ export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline }: ChatPanelProps) {
         <Icon name="sparkles" size={16} style={{ color: offline ? 'var(--ink-3)' : 'var(--jade)' }} />
         <span style={{ font: 'var(--text-body-strong)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>Reginald</span>
         <span style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', marginLeft: 'auto' }}>
-          {offline ? 'offline · queueing' : 'gemma-4b · local'}
+          {offline ? 'offline · queueing' : live ? `${modelLabel} · local` : 'no model'}
         </span>
         <IconButton icon="history" label="Directive log" size="sm" onClick={onOpenDirectives} />
       </header>
@@ -97,7 +98,46 @@ export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline }: ChatPanelProps) {
             The model is away from its desk. Reads still work; writes will wait their turn.
           </div>
         ) : null}
-        {thinking ? <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>considering…</div> : null}
+        {streaming ? (
+          <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', lineHeight: 1.55 }}>
+            {streaming}
+            <span style={{ opacity: 0.5 }}>▊</span>
+          </div>
+        ) : thinking ? (
+          <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>considering…</div>
+        ) : null}
+        {!thinking && steps.length ? (
+          <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 5 }}>
+            <Icon name="eye" size={11} /> consulted {Array.from(new Set(steps.map((s) => s.replace('query_project', 'the project').replace('propose_change', 'the labels').replace('record_directive', 'the directive ledger')))).join(', ')}
+          </div>
+        ) : null}
+        {proposals.map((p) => (
+          <div
+            key={`${p.change.issue}:${p.change.kind}`}
+            style={{
+              border: '1px solid var(--line-2)',
+              borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)',
+              background: 'var(--paper-0)',
+              padding: '10px 12px',
+              display: 'flex',
+              flexDirection: 'column',
+              gap: 8,
+            }}
+          >
+            <div style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', textTransform: 'uppercase', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)' }}>
+              Proposed · #{p.change.issue}
+            </div>
+            <div style={{ font: '500 13px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>{describeChange(p.plan)}</div>
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 8 }}>
+              <Button size="sm" onClick={() => approve(p)} disabled={offline}>
+                Approve
+              </Button>
+              <Button size="sm" variant="ghost" onClick={() => dismiss(p)}>
+                Dismiss
+              </Button>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        ))}
       </div>
 
       <div style={{ padding: 14, borderTop: '1px solid var(--line-1)', flexShrink: 0 }}>
@@ -121,8 +161,8 @@ export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline }: ChatPanelProps) {
                 send()
               }
             }}
-            placeholder={offline ? 'Writes wait for the connection…' : 'Tell me what to do…'}
-            disabled={offline}
+            placeholder={offline ? 'Writes wait for the connection…' : live ? 'Tell me what to do…' : 'Add a Model URL in Settings…'}
+            disabled={offline || !live}
             rows={1}
             style={{
               flex: 1,
@@ -140,15 +180,15 @@ export function ChatPanel({ onOpenDirectives, offline }: ChatPanelProps) {
             type="button"
             onClick={send}
             aria-label="Send"
-            disabled={offline}
+            disabled={offline || !live}
             style={{
               width: 30,
               height: 30,
               borderRadius: 'var(--radius-2)',
               border: 'none',
-              cursor: offline ? 'not-allowed' : 'pointer',
-              background: offline ? 'var(--paper-3)' : 'var(--accent)',
-              color: offline ? 'var(--ink-3)' : 'var(--ink-inverse)',
+              cursor: offline || !live ? 'not-allowed' : 'pointer',
+              background: offline || !live ? 'var(--paper-3)' : 'var(--accent)',
+              color: offline || !live ? 'var(--ink-3)' : 'var(--ink-inverse)',
               display: 'inline-flex',
               alignItems: 'center',
               justifyContent: 'center',

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/data/fixtures.ts

@@ -315,6 +315,8 @@ export interface RunwayMilestone {
   spread: number
   tone: 'ok' | 'warn'
   note: string
+  /** gitea milestone id, for the drill-in (absent on the demo fixture). */
+  id?: number
 }
 
 export const RUNWAY: RunwayMilestone[] = [

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/global.d.ts

@@ -1,15 +1,120 @@
-import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone } from '@commitea/core'
+import type {
+  AgentStep,
+  CapacityMember,
+  ChangeProposal,
+  ChatMessage,
+  CaptureProposal,
+  DependencyEdge,
+  DirectiveRecord,
+  GiteaIssue,
+  GiteaMilestone,
+  IssueChange,
+  LabelPlan,
+  LifecycleEvent,
+  ProposedIssue,
+} from '@commitea/core'
 
-/** The gitea bridge exposed by the preload over IPC (main-process backed). */
-export interface GiteaBridge {
-  status(): Promise<{ configured: boolean; repo: string | null }>
-  reconcile(): Promise<{
+/** The result of a write through the bridge. */
+export type ApplyChangeResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' }
+  | { ok: true; plan: LabelPlan; issue: GiteaIssue }
+
+/** The result of filing captured issues. */
+export type CreateIssuesResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' }
+  | { ok: true; created: { number: number; title: string }[] }
+
+/** The result of a capture_work decomposition. */
+export type CaptureResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' | 'error'; message?: string }
+  | ({ ok: true } & CaptureProposal)
+
+/** A reconciled snapshot as it crosses the bridge. */
+export interface SnapshotPayload {
   configured: boolean
   issues: GiteaIssue[]
   milestones: GiteaMilestone[]
   deps: DependencyEdge[]
-  }>
+  /** Normalized lifecycle events keyed by issue number. */
+  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+  /** true when served from the persisted cache (offline / instant boot). */
+  stale?: boolean
+  /** ISO time the persisted snapshot was reconciled (present on cached reads). */
+  savedAt?: string
+}
+
+/** Boot payload — the persisted snapshot, or a marker that there's none yet. */
+export type BootPayload =
+  | { configured: false }
+  | { configured: true; cached: false }
+  | ({ configured: true; cached: true } & Omit<SnapshotPayload, 'configured'>)
+
+/** The saved connection config (never includes the token). */
+export interface PublicConfig {
+  baseUrl: string
+  owner: string
+  repo: string
+  pmStateRepo?: string
+  modelUrl?: string
+  hasToken: boolean
+}
+
+/** What the onboarding/settings form submits. */
+export interface ConfigInput {
+  baseUrl: string
+  owner: string
+  repo: string
+  token: string
+  pmStateRepo?: string
+  modelUrl?: string
+}
+
+/** The config bridge for team onboarding. */
+export interface ConfigBridge {
+  get(): Promise<PublicConfig | null>
+  test(cfg: ConfigInput): Promise<{ ok: boolean; error?: string }>
+  set(cfg: ConfigInput): Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
+  clear(): Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
+}
+
+/** The gitea bridge exposed by the preload over IPC (main-process backed). */
+export interface GiteaBridge {
+  status(): Promise<{ configured: boolean; repo: string | null; demo: boolean }>
+  boot(): Promise<BootPayload>
+  reconcile(): Promise<SnapshotPayload>
   getIssue(index: number): Promise<GiteaIssue | null>
+  applyChange(change: IssueChange): Promise<ApplyChangeResult>
+  createIssues(issues: ProposedIssue[]): Promise<CreateIssuesResult>
+}
+
+/** One agent turn's result. */
+export type ChatResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' | 'error'; message?: string }
+  | { ok: true; content: string; steps: AgentStep[]; proposals: ChangeProposal[] }
+
+/** The model bridge (Reginald) exposed by the preload over IPC. */
+export interface ModelBridge {
+  status(): Promise<{ configured: boolean; model: string | null }>
+  chat(messages: ChatMessage[]): Promise<ChatResult>
+  capture(braindump: string): Promise<CaptureResult>
+  /** Subscribe to streamed prose tokens; returns an unsubscribe fn. */
+  onToken(cb: (delta: string) => void): () => void
+}
+
+/** The result of reading the directive ledger. */
+export type DirectivesResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' | 'error'; message?: string }
+  | { ok: true; directives: DirectiveRecord[] }
+
+/** The result of reading the capacity config. */
+export type CapacityResult =
+  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured'; members: CapacityMember[] }
+  | { ok: true; members: CapacityMember[] }
+
+/** The pm-state bridge (machine-derived state) exposed by the preload over IPC. */
+export interface PmStateBridge {
+  directives(): Promise<DirectivesResult>
+  capacity(): Promise<CapacityResult>
 }
 
 declare global {
@@ -17,6 +122,9 @@ declare global {
     commitea: {
       platform: string
       gitea: GiteaBridge
+      model: ModelBridge
+      pmstate: PmStateBridge
+      config: ConfigBridge
     }
   }
 }

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/backlog.ts

@@ -1,14 +1,43 @@
 import {
+  type CalibrationModel,
+  type CalibrationSample,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  type CapacityMember,
+  capacityPerWorkday,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
   type DependencyEdge,
+  fitCalibration,
+  forecast,
+  type Worker,
   type GiteaIssue,
-  inferColumnV0,
+  type GiteaMilestone,
+  inferLifecycle,
   type LifecycleColumn,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  type LifecycleInference,
+  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
   schedule,
   type ScheduledItem,
   selectFocus,
+  toDurationModel,
+  workingDaysBetween,
 } from '@commitea/core'
 
-import { type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type FocusIssue } from '../data/fixtures.js'
+import {
+  type BoardColumn,
+  type BoardIssue,
+  type CalibrationData,
+  type FocusIssue,
+  type RunwayMilestone,
+} from '../data/fixtures.js'
+import { addWorkingDays, type BurnUpData, buildBurnUpData, formatRange, formatShort } from './dates.js'
+
+type Timelines = Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+
+/** Infer every issue's lifecycle once; callers index by issue number. */
+function inferAll(issues: GiteaIssue[], timelines: Timelines, asOf: Date): Map<number, LifecycleInference> {
+  return new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, inferLifecycle(i, timelines[i.number] ?? [], asOf)]))
+}
 
 const COLUMN_LABELS: Record<LifecycleColumn, string> = {
   diagnosis: 'Diagnosis',
@@ -25,24 +54,32 @@ function initials(login: string): string {
 }
 
 /**
- * Shape real gitea issues into the Board's five columns via lifecycle-v0.
- * `steeping` / `review` stay empty until event inference (P1-5). `days` / `pr`
- * are likewise event-derived and omitted here.
+ * Shape real gitea issues into the Board's five columns via lifecycle inference
+ * (#5). Steeping / In-review are now populated from the event stream (first
+ * commit ref → steeping, first PR ref → review); the `days` badge is the
+ * steeping age in working days.
  */
-export function issuesToBoardColumns(issues: GiteaIssue[]): BoardColumn[] {
+export function issuesToBoardColumns(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): BoardColumn[] {
+  const inf = inferAll(issues, timelines, asOf)
   return COLUMN_ORDER.map((key) => ({
     id: key,
     label: COLUMN_LABELS[key],
     issues: issues
-      .filter((i) => inferColumnV0(i) === key)
-      .map(
-        (i): BoardIssue => ({
+      .filter((i) => inf.get(i.number)!.column === key)
+      .map((i): BoardIssue => {
+        const li = inf.get(i.number)!
+        return {
           id: i.number,
           title: i.title,
           labels: i.labels,
           who: i.assignee ? initials(i.assignee) : '·',
+          days: li.steepingDays != null ? `${li.steepingDays}d` : undefined,
+        }
       }),
-      ),
   }))
 }
 
@@ -52,9 +89,145 @@ export interface FocusView {
   later: FocusIssue | null
 }
 
-function toFocusIssue(item: ScheduledItem | null): FocusIssue | null {
+function toFocusIssue(item: ScheduledItem | null, inf?: Map<number, LifecycleInference>): FocusIssue | null {
   if (!item) return null
-  return { id: item.number, title: item.title, labels: item.labels, rationale: item.rationale }
+  const steepingDays = inf?.get(item.number)?.steepingDays ?? null
+  return {
+    id: item.number,
+    title: item.title,
+    labels: item.labels,
+    rationale: item.rationale,
+    steeping: steepingDays != null ? `${steepingDays}d` : undefined,
+  }
+}
+
+function toSchedulable(issues: GiteaIssue[]) {
+  return issues
+    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    .map((i) => ({
+      number: i.number,
+      title: i.title,
+      labels: i.labels,
+      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
+      priority: i.facts.priority,
+      assignee: i.assignee,
+    }))
+}
+
+/** gitea CapacityMembers → scheduler lanes (person + throughput). */
+export function capacityWorkers(members: CapacityMember[]): Worker[] {
+  return members.map((m) => ({ person: m.person, speed: capacityPerWorkday(m) }))
+}
+
+export interface ForecastView {
+  scope: number
+  cone: BurnUpData
+  p80Label: string
+  rangeLabel: string
+  /** true while the forecast still runs on code priors (calibration not yet trusted). */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Closed-with-estimate issues feeding calibration so far. */
+  calibratedN: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo forecast over the open backlog, mapped onto a calendar-anchored
+ * burn-up cone. When a calibration model is supplied and past cold-start, its
+ * fitted params drive the sim. Returns null when there's nothing to forecast.
+ * `today` is injectable for tests.
+ */
+export function forecastBacklog(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  today: Date = new Date(),
+  calibration?: CalibrationModel,
+  workers: Worker[] = [],
+): ForecastView | null {
+  const model = calibration ? toDurationModel(calibration) : undefined
+  const f = forecast(toSchedulable(issues), deps, { ...(model ? { model } : {}), workers })
+  const cone = buildBurnUpData(f, today)
+  if (!cone) return null
+  return {
+    scope: f.scope,
+    cone,
+    p80Label: cone.p80Label,
+    rangeLabel: cone.rangeLabel,
+    coldStart: f.coldStart,
+    calibratedN: calibration?.n ?? 0,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Fit the calibration model from the closed backlog's inferred actuals (#1). */
+export function calibrateBacklog(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): CalibrationModel {
+  return fitCalibration(calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf))
+}
+
+/** Calibration model + its screen view in one pass over the closed backlog. */
+export function backlogCalibration(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): { model: CalibrationModel; data: CalibrationData } {
+  const samples = calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  const model = fitCalibration(samples)
+  return { model, data: calibrationData(model, samples, issues) }
+}
+
+const pctFromMu = (mu: number) => Math.round((Math.exp(mu) - 1) * 100)
+
+/**
+ * Shape the calibration model + its samples into the screen's view. Buckets and
+ * people only earn a bias once their sample clears the fit floor; everything
+ * degrades honestly on a thin (cold-start) dataset.
+ */
+export function calibrationData(
+  model: CalibrationModel,
+  samples: CalibrationSample[],
+  openIssues: GiteaIssue[],
+): CalibrationData {
+  const labels = PRIOR_BUCKETS.map((b) => {
+    const inBucket = samples.filter((s) => s.bucket === b)
+    const fit = model.byBucket[b]
+    const mu = fit ? fit.mu : model.global.mu
+    return {
+      label: `est/${b}d`,
+      n: fit ? fit.n : inBucket.length,
+      median: inBucket.length ? `${(b * Math.exp(mu)).toFixed(1)}d` : '—',
+      bias: fit ? pctFromMu(fit.mu) : null,
+    }
+  })
+
+  const people = Object.entries(model.byPerson).map(([who, pb]) => ({
+    who,
+    n: pb.n,
+    bias: pctFromMu(model.global.mu + pb.biasMu),
+    note: '',
+  }))
+
+  const openEst = openIssues
+    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    .reduce((sum, i) => sum + (i.facts.estimateDays ?? 2), 0)
+  const effect = model.coldStart
+    ? { raw: `${model.n}/${COLD_START_THRESHOLD} estimated closes`, banded: 'cold-start priors', p50: '—' }
+    : {
+        raw: `${openEst}d estimated`,
+        banded: `×${Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)} median drift`,
+        p50: `≈${Math.round(openEst * Math.exp(model.global.mu))}d`,
+      }
+
+  return {
+    n: model.n,
+    active: !model.coldStart,
+    labels,
+    people,
+    scatter: samples.map((s) => [s.estimateDays, s.actualWorkingDays]),
+    fit: Number(Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)),
+    effect,
+  }
 }
 
 /**
@@ -62,18 +235,153 @@ function toFocusIssue(item: ScheduledItem | null): FocusIssue | null {
  * as Now/Next/Later. Estimates + priority come from label facts; dependency
  * edges come from gitea's native issue dependencies.
  */
-export function scheduleFocus(issues: GiteaIssue[], deps: DependencyEdge[]): FocusView {
+export function scheduleFocus(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  asOf: Date = new Date(),
+): FocusView {
+  const plan = schedule(toSchedulable(issues), deps)
+  const f = selectFocus(plan)
+  const inf = inferAll(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  return {
+    now: toFocusIssue(f.now, inf),
+    next: toFocusIssue(f.next, inf),
+    later: toFocusIssue(f.later, inf),
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Per-milestone Monte Carlo forecast for the Runway screen — each open milestone's
+ * open scope gets its own cone, and the p80 landing is compared to the milestone's
+ * due date (ok/at-risk). Ranges, never point dates. Milestones with no open scope
+ * (already shipped) are omitted. Falls back to the demo when there's nothing real.
+ */
+export function runwayView(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  milestones: GiteaMilestone[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  today: Date = new Date(),
+  workers: Worker[] = [],
+): RunwayMilestone[] {
   const open = issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-  const plan = schedule(
+  const rows = milestones
+    .filter((m) => m.state === 'open')
+    .map((m) => ({ m, scope: open.filter((i) => i.milestone?.id === m.id) }))
+    .filter((x) => x.scope.length > 0)
+    .map(({ m, scope }) => {
+      const f = forecast(
+        scope.map((i) => ({
+          number: i.number,
+          title: i.title,
+          labels: i.labels,
+          estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
+          priority: i.facts.priority,
+          assignee: i.assignee,
+        })),
+        deps,
+        { workers },
+      )
+      const p90 = f.curve.length ? f.curve[f.curve.length - 1].p90Day : f.p95Day
+      const dueDay = m.dueOn ? workingDaysBetween(today, new Date(m.dueOn)) : null
+      return { m, p50: f.p50Day, p80: f.p80Day, p90, dueDay }
+    })
+
+  const horizon = Math.max(1, ...rows.map((r) => Math.max(r.p90, r.dueDay ?? 0)))
+
+  return rows.map(({ m, p50, p80, p90, dueDay }) => {
+    const onTrack = dueDay == null || p80 <= dueDay
+    return {
+      id: m.id,
+      name: m.title,
+      due: m.dueOn ? formatShort(new Date(m.dueOn)) : 'no date',
+      hard: false,
+      p80: formatRange(addWorkingDays(today, p50), addWorkingDays(today, p90)),
+      pos: p80 / horizon,
+      spread: Math.min(0.6, (p90 - p50) / horizon),
+      tone: onTrack ? ('ok' as const) : ('warn' as const),
+      note: dueDay == null ? `${Math.ceil(p80)}d of work` : onTrack ? 'on track' : 'at risk',
+    }
+  })
+}
+
+export interface MilestoneGroup {
+  label: string
+  issues: { id: number; title: string; labels: string[]; days?: string }[]
+}
+
+export interface MilestoneView {
+  name: string
+  due: string
+  soft: boolean
+  scopeCount: number
+  scopeEstDays: number
+  doneCount: number
+  donePct: number
+  /** p50..p90 landing range for the remaining open scope; null when nothing's open. */
+  forecastRange: string | null
+  cone: BurnUpData | null
+  groups: MilestoneGroup[]
+}
+
+/**
+ * The Milestone drill-in: real scope, done %, a Monte Carlo cone over the
+ * milestone's remaining open work, and its issues grouped by lifecycle column.
+ * Returns null for an unknown id — the screen then shows the demo fixture.
+ */
+export function milestoneView(
+  id: number,
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  milestones: GiteaMilestone[],
+  deps: DependencyEdge[],
+  timelines: Timelines = {},
+  calibration?: CalibrationModel,
+  today: Date = new Date(),
+  workers: Worker[] = [],
+): MilestoneView | null {
+  const m = milestones.find((x) => x.id === id)
+  if (!m) return null
+  const all = issues.filter((i) => i.milestone?.id === id)
+  const open = all.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+  const done = all.filter((i) => i.state === 'closed')
+  const scopeEstDays = all.reduce((sum, i) => sum + (i.facts.estimateDays ?? 2), 0)
+
+  const model = calibration ? toDurationModel(calibration) : undefined
+  const f = forecast(
     open.map((i) => ({
       number: i.number,
       title: i.title,
       labels: i.labels,
       estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
       priority: i.facts.priority,
+      assignee: i.assignee,
     })),
     deps,
+    { ...(model ? { model } : {}), workers },
   )
-  const f = selectFocus(plan)
-  return { now: toFocusIssue(f.now), next: toFocusIssue(f.next), later: toFocusIssue(f.later) }
+  const cone = buildBurnUpData(f, today)
+
+  const inf = inferAll(all, timelines, today)
+  const groups: MilestoneGroup[] = COLUMN_ORDER.map((key) => ({
+    label: COLUMN_LABELS[key],
+    issues: all
+      .filter((i) => inf.get(i.number)!.column === key)
+      .map((i) => {
+        const days = inf.get(i.number)!.steepingDays
+        return { id: i.number, title: i.title, labels: i.labels, days: days != null ? `${days}d` : undefined }
+      }),
+  })).filter((g) => g.issues.length > 0)
+
+  return {
+    name: m.title,
+    due: m.dueOn ? formatShort(new Date(m.dueOn)) : 'no date',
+    soft: true,
+    scopeCount: all.length,
+    scopeEstDays,
+    doneCount: done.length,
+    donePct: all.length ? Math.round((done.length / all.length) * 100) : 0,
+    forecastRange: cone ? cone.rangeLabel : null,
+    cone,
+    groups,
+  }
 }

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/dates.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import type { Forecast } from '@commitea/core'
+
+const MONTHS = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec']
+
+/** Advance `base` by whole working days (skipping Sat/Sun). Fractions round to nearest day. */
+export function addWorkingDays(base: Date, workingDays: number): Date {
+  const d = new Date(base.getFullYear(), base.getMonth(), base.getDate())
+  let remaining = Math.max(0, Math.round(workingDays))
+  while (remaining > 0) {
+    d.setDate(d.getDate() + 1)
+    const day = d.getDay()
+    if (day !== 0 && day !== 6) remaining -= 1
+  }
+  return d
+}
+
+/** "Mar 6" */
+export function formatShort(d: Date): string {
+  return `${MONTHS[d.getMonth()]} ${d.getDate()}`
+}
+
+/** "Feb 24 – Mar 6" (collapses the month when both ends share it → "Mar 3–12"). */
+export function formatRange(lo: Date, hi: Date): string {
+  if (lo.getMonth() === hi.getMonth()) return `${MONTHS[lo.getMonth()]} ${lo.getDate()}–${hi.getDate()}`
+  return `${formatShort(lo)} – ${formatShort(hi)}`
+}
+
+export interface BurnUpBandPoint {
+  fraction: number
+  loDay: number
+  midDay: number
+  hiDay: number
+}
+
+/** Chart-ready geometry + calendar labels derived from a Monte Carlo forecast. */
+export interface BurnUpData {
+  scope: number
+  horizonDays: number
+  band: BurnUpBandPoint[]
+  p80Day: number
+  p80Label: string
+  rangeLabel: string
+  startLabel: string
+  endLabel: string
+}
+
+/**
+ * Map a working-day forecast onto a calendar-anchored burn-up cone. `today`
+ * anchors day 0; the cone emanates from (today, 0) and widens to the right.
+ * The historical "actual" polyline behind today awaits lifecycle events (#5).
+ */
+export function buildBurnUpData(f: Forecast, today: Date): BurnUpData | null {
+  if (f.scope === 0 || f.curve.length === 0) return null
+  const last = f.curve[f.curve.length - 1]
+  const horizonDays = Math.max(1, Math.ceil(last.p90Day * 1.05))
+  const band: BurnUpBandPoint[] = [
+    { fraction: 0, loDay: 0, midDay: 0, hiDay: 0 },
+    ...f.curve.map((p) => ({ fraction: p.fraction, loDay: p.p10Day, midDay: p.p50Day, hiDay: p.p90Day })),
+  ]
+  return {
+    scope: f.scope,
+    horizonDays,
+    band,
+    p80Day: f.p80Day,
+    p80Label: formatShort(addWorkingDays(today, f.p80Day)),
+    rangeLabel: formatRange(addWorkingDays(today, f.p50Day), addWorkingDays(today, last.p90Day)),
+    startLabel: formatShort(today),
+    endLabel: formatShort(addWorkingDays(today, horizonDays)),
+  }
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/use-backlog.ts

@@ -1,40 +1,91 @@
-import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
-import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone } from '@commitea/core'
+import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone, LifecycleEvent } from '@commitea/core'
 
 export type BacklogState =
   | { status: 'loading' }
   | { status: 'unconfigured' }
   | { status: 'error'; message: string }
-  | { status: 'ready'; issues: GiteaIssue[]; milestones: GiteaMilestone[]; deps: DependencyEdge[] }
+  | {
+      status: 'ready'
+      issues: GiteaIssue[]
+      milestones: GiteaMilestone[]
+      deps: DependencyEdge[]
+      timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+      /** true while showing the persisted snapshot (instant boot / offline). */
+      stale: boolean
+      /** ISO time the shown snapshot was reconciled, when stale. */
+      savedAt?: string
+    }
 
 /**
- * Reconcile the managed repo once on mount, through the main-process bridge.
- * `unconfigured` means no token — the UI falls back to demo fixtures. Errors
- * (network, bad token) surface as `error`.
+ * Reconcile the managed repo through the main-process bridge, stale-while-
+ * revalidate: on mount it shows the persisted snapshot instantly (marked stale),
+ * then a fresh reconcile supersedes it. If gitea is unreachable, the fresh
+ * reconcile falls back to the persisted snapshot (offline). `refetch` re-syncs
+ * after a write. `unconfigured` means no token — the UI uses demo fixtures.
  */
-export function useBacklog(): BacklogState {
+export function useBacklog(): [BacklogState, () => void] {
   const [state, setState] = useState<BacklogState>({ status: 'loading' })
+  const [nonce, setNonce] = useState(0)
+  const refetch = useCallback(() => setNonce((n) => n + 1), [])
 
   useEffect(() => {
     let alive = true
+
+    // instant boot from the persisted snapshot (only on first mount, not refetch)
+    if (nonce === 0) {
+      window.commitea.gitea
+        .boot()
+        .then((b) => {
+          if (!alive || !('cached' in b) || !b.cached) return
+          setState((prev) =>
+            prev.status === 'ready' && !prev.stale
+              ? prev // a fresh reconcile already won the race
+              : {
+                  status: 'ready',
+                  issues: b.issues,
+                  milestones: b.milestones,
+                  deps: b.deps,
+                  timelines: b.timelines,
+                  stale: true,
+                  savedAt: b.savedAt,
+                },
+          )
+        })
+        .catch(() => {})
+    }
+
     window.commitea.gitea
       .reconcile()
       .then((r) => {
         if (!alive) return
         setState(
           r.configured
-            ? { status: 'ready', issues: r.issues, milestones: r.milestones, deps: r.deps }
+            ? {
+                status: 'ready',
+                issues: r.issues,
+                milestones: r.milestones,
+                deps: r.deps,
+                timelines: r.timelines,
+                stale: r.stale ?? false,
+                savedAt: r.savedAt,
+              }
             : { status: 'unconfigured' },
         )
       })
       .catch((e: unknown) => {
-        if (alive) setState({ status: 'error', message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) })
+        if (alive) {
+          // keep a shown boot snapshot rather than clobbering it with an error
+          setState((prev) =>
+            prev.status === 'ready' ? prev : { status: 'error', message: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) },
+          )
+        }
       })
     return () => {
       alive = false
     }
-  }, [])
+  }, [nonce])
 
-  return state
+  return [state, refetch]
 }

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/use-capacity.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+
+import type { CapacityMember } from '@commitea/core'
+
+/**
+ * The team's capacity config from the pm-state repo. Empty when unconfigured —
+ * forecasts then fall back to a single serial worker. Read once on mount.
+ */
+export function useCapacity(): CapacityMember[] {
+  const [members, setMembers] = useState<CapacityMember[]>([])
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    window.commitea.pmstate
+      .capacity()
+      .then((r) => {
+        if (alive) setMembers(r.members)
+      })
+      .catch(() => {})
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+    }
+  }, [])
+  return members
+}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/use-chat.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react'
+
+import type { ChangeProposal, ChatMessage as WireMessage, IssueChange } from '@commitea/core'
+
+import { CHAT, type ChatMessage } from '../data/fixtures.js'
+
+const LIVE_GREETING: ChatMessage = {
+  from: 'agent',
+  text: 'Morning. Ask me anything about the project — I check the real board before I answer.',
+}
+
+const NO_MODEL: ChatMessage = {
+  from: 'agent',
+  text: "Reginald is off — I need a model. Add a Model URL in Settings and chat turns on.",
+}
+
+export interface ChatState {
+  msgs: ChatMessage[]
+  thinking: boolean
+  /** true once a model endpoint is confirmed; otherwise the panel echoes the demo reply. */
+  live: boolean
+  /** The loaded model's id when live (for the header). */
+  model: string | null
+  /** Tools Reginald consulted on the last turn (for a subtle activity line). */
+  steps: string[]
+  /** Changes Reginald has proposed and is awaiting approval on. */
+  proposals: ChangeProposal[]
+  /** The in-flight streamed prose (grows token-by-token) before the turn finalizes. */
+  streaming: string
+  send: (text: string) => void
+  approve: (p: ChangeProposal) => void
+  dismiss: (p: ChangeProposal) => void
+}
+
+/**
+ * Reginald's conversation. When a model is configured, `send` drives one agent
+ * turn through the main-process bridge (which runs the tool loop). Otherwise it
+ * echoes the scripted fixture reply, so the layout stays real with no model and
+ * fixture e2e is unaffected. The fixture greeting is display-only — only real
+ * turns (`convo`) are sent to the model as history. `onApplyChange` performs an
+ * approved write (the same handler the Issue screen uses — it refetches).
+ */
+export function useChat(onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>): ChatState {
+  const [seed, setSeed] = useState<ChatMessage[]>(CHAT)
+  const [convo, setConvo] = useState<ChatMessage[]>([])
+  const [thinking, setThinking] = useState(false)
+  const [live, setLive] = useState(false)
+  const [model, setModel] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [steps, setSteps] = useState<string[]>([])
+  const [proposals, setProposals] = useState<ChangeProposal[]>([])
+  const [streaming, setStreaming] = useState('')
+  const convoRef = useRef(convo)
+  convoRef.current = convo
+
+  const proposalKey = (p: ChangeProposal) => `${p.change.issue}:${p.change.kind}`
+  const drop = (p: ChangeProposal) => setProposals((ps) => ps.filter((x) => proposalKey(x) !== proposalKey(p)))
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    window.commitea.model
+      .status()
+      .then((s) => {
+        if (!alive) return
+        if (s.configured) {
+          setLive(true)
+          setModel(s.model)
+          setSeed([LIVE_GREETING])
+        } else {
+          // no model → clean "off" state, not a scripted fixture reply
+          setSeed([NO_MODEL])
+        }
+      })
+      .catch(() => {})
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  const send = useCallback(
+    (raw: string) => {
+      const text = raw.trim()
+      if (!text) return
+      const nextConvo: ChatMessage[] = [...convoRef.current, { from: 'user', text }]
+      setConvo(nextConvo)
+      setThinking(true)
+      setSteps([])
+      setProposals([])
+
+      if (!live) {
+        // no model configured — nothing to send (composer is disabled anyway)
+        setThinking(false)
+        return
+      }
+
+      const wire: WireMessage[] = nextConvo.map((m) => ({
+        role: m.from === 'user' ? 'user' : 'assistant',
+        content: m.text,
+      }))
+      setStreaming('')
+      const unsubscribe = window.commitea.model.onToken((delta) => setStreaming((s) => s + delta))
+      const finish = () => {
+        unsubscribe()
+        setThinking(false)
+        setStreaming('')
+      }
+      window.commitea.model
+        .chat(wire)
+        .then((res) => {
+          finish()
+          if (res.ok) {
+            setSteps(res.steps.map((s) => s.tool))
+            setProposals(res.proposals)
+            setConvo((c) => [...c, { from: 'agent', text: res.content || '…' }])
+          } else {
+            setConvo((c) => [
+              ...c,
+              {
+                from: 'agent',
+                text: res.reason === 'error' ? `I hit a snag: ${res.message ?? 'unknown error'}` : 'No model is configured.',
+              },
+            ])
+          }
+        })
+        .catch(() => {
+          finish()
+          setConvo((c) => [...c, { from: 'agent', text: 'I could not reach the model.' }])
+        })
+    },
+    [live],
+  )
+
+  const approve = useCallback(
+    (p: ChangeProposal) => {
+      if (!onApplyChange) return
+      drop(p)
+      const label = p.plan.added[0] ?? p.plan.removed[0] ?? 'change'
+      void onApplyChange(p.change).then((res) => {
+        setConvo((c) => [
+          ...c,
+          {
+            from: 'agent',
+            text: res.ok
+              ? `Done — #${p.change.issue} is now ${label}. The plan's been re-run.`
+              : `That didn't take — #${p.change.issue} is unchanged.`,
+          },
+        ])
+      })
+    },
+    [onApplyChange],
+  )
+
+  const dismiss = useCallback((p: ChangeProposal) => {
+    drop(p)
+    setConvo((c) => [...c, { from: 'agent', text: `Left #${p.change.issue} as it was.` }])
+  }, [])
+
+  return { msgs: [...seed, ...convo], thinking, live, model, steps, proposals, streaming, send, approve, dismiss }
+}

packages/core/src/agent/agent-live.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+import { beforeAll, describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+import type { FetchLike, GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import { runAgentTurn } from './agent-loop.js'
+import { REGINALD_SYSTEM, REGINALD_TOOLS } from './agent-tools.js'
+import { createChatClient } from './chat-client.js'
+import { buildProjectView, type ProjectSnapshot } from './query-project.js'
+
+/**
+ * Opt-in (COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE=1). Drives the real chat client + agent loop
+ * against a local OpenAI-compatible server (LM Studio on :1234 by default),
+ * proving the model calls the tools and narrates the real result. The model is
+ * whatever is loaded (via LM Studio's native API), so it never JIT-swaps.
+ */
+const LIVE = !!process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_LIVE
+const BASE = process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_URL ?? 'http://localhost:1234/v1'
+let MODEL = process.env.COMMITEA_MODEL_SMALL ?? ''
+
+beforeAll(async () => {
+  if (!LIVE || MODEL) return
+  const root = BASE.replace(/\/v1\/?$/, '')
+  const loaded = await fetch(`${root}/api/v0/models`)
+    .then((r) => (r.ok ? (r.json() as Promise<{ data?: { id: string; state?: string; type?: string }[] }>) : null))
+    .then((d) => d?.data?.find((m) => m.state === 'loaded' && m.type !== 'embeddings')?.id)
+    .catch(() => undefined)
+  MODEL = loaded ?? 'google/gemma-4-e4b'
+})
+
+function issue(over: Partial<GiteaIssue>): GiteaIssue {
+  const labels = over.labels ?? []
+  return {
+    number: 1, title: '#1', body: '', state: 'open', labels, facts: extractLabelFacts(labels),
+    milestone: null, assignee: null, assignees: [], createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
+    updatedAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z', closedAt: null, url: '', ...over,
+  }
+}
+
+const SNAP: ProjectSnapshot = {
+  issues: [
+    issue({ number: 2, title: 'ChangeSource interface + polling source', labels: ['est/3d', 'p/1'] }),
+    issue({ number: 3, title: 'SQLite cache bootstrap', labels: ['est/2d', 'p/1'] }),
+  ],
+  timelines: {},
+  deps: [{ issue: 3, dependsOn: 2 }],
+}
+
+describe('agent loop (live model)', () => {
+  it.skipIf(!LIVE)(
+    'calls query_project and narrates the real focus',
+    async () => {
+      const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: BASE, model: MODEL }, globalThis.fetch as unknown as FetchLike)
+      const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+        complete: (m, t) => client.complete(m, t),
+        messages: [
+          { role: 'system', content: REGINALD_SYSTEM },
+          { role: 'user', content: 'What should I work on right now?' },
+        ],
+        tools: REGINALD_TOOLS,
+        execute: async (name, args) =>
+          name === 'query_project'
+            ? buildProjectView((args as { view: any }).view, (args as any).filters, SNAP, new Date())
+            : { error: `unknown tool ${name}` },
+      })
+
+      // it consulted the project, then answered in prose about the real top item (#2)
+      expect(turn.steps.some((s) => s.tool === 'query_project')).toBe(true)
+      expect(turn.content.trim().length).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+      expect(turn.content).toMatch(/#?2\b|ChangeSource/i)
+    },
+    60_000,
+  )
+
+  it.skipIf(!LIVE)(
+    'records a standing instruction via record_directive',
+    async () => {
+      const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: BASE, model: MODEL }, globalThis.fetch as unknown as FetchLike)
+      const recorded: unknown[] = []
+      const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+        complete: (m, t) => client.complete(m, t),
+        messages: [
+          { role: 'system', content: REGINALD_SYSTEM },
+          { role: 'user', content: 'Log this standing directive: pilots come first, everything else waits.' },
+        ],
+        tools: REGINALD_TOOLS,
+        execute: async (name, args) => {
+          if (name === 'record_directive') {
+            recorded.push(args)
+            return { recorded: { kind: (args as { kind?: string }).kind ?? 'note' } }
+          }
+          return name === 'query_project'
+            ? buildProjectView((args as { view: any }).view, (args as any).filters, SNAP, new Date())
+            : { error: `unknown tool ${name}` }
+        },
+      })
+
+      // the model logged the directive rather than trying to apply it
+      expect(turn.steps.some((s) => s.tool === 'record_directive')).toBe(true)
+      expect(recorded.length).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+    },
+    60_000,
+  )
+})

packages/core/src/agent/agent-loop.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+/**
+ * The agent turn loop. Given a model `complete` fn, the conversation, the tool
+ * declarations, and an `execute` that actually runs a tool, it drives the
+ * call→tool→result→call cycle until the model answers in prose (or a step
+ * budget is hit). Pure orchestration with injected I/O — the model and the tool
+ * executor are both stubbable, so the loop is fully unit-testable offline.
+ */
+
+import type { ChatMessage, CompletionResult, ToolDecl } from './chat-client.js'
+
+/** A tool the loop ran, with the raw args and its stringified result — for the UI's activity trail. */
+export interface AgentStep {
+  tool: string
+  arguments: string
+  result: string
+}
+
+export type ToolExecutor = (name: string, args: unknown) => Promise<unknown>
+
+export interface AgentTurn {
+  content: string
+  steps: AgentStep[]
+  /** The full conversation including this turn's assistant/tool messages. */
+  messages: ChatMessage[]
+}
+
+const DEFAULT_MAX_STEPS = 4
+
+function stringify(result: unknown): string {
+  return typeof result === 'string' ? result : JSON.stringify(result)
+}
+
+export async function runAgentTurn(opts: {
+  complete: (messages: ChatMessage[], tools?: ToolDecl[], onToken?: (delta: string) => void) => Promise<CompletionResult>
+  messages: ChatMessage[]
+  tools: ToolDecl[]
+  execute: ToolExecutor
+  maxSteps?: number
+  /** Streams content deltas as the model produces prose (final-answer streaming). */
+  onToken?: (delta: string) => void
+}): Promise<AgentTurn> {
+  const maxSteps = opts.maxSteps ?? DEFAULT_MAX_STEPS
+  const convo: ChatMessage[] = [...opts.messages]
+  const steps: AgentStep[] = []
+
+  for (let step = 0; step < maxSteps; step++) {
+    const { content, toolCalls } = await opts.complete(convo, opts.tools, opts.onToken)
+    if (toolCalls.length === 0) {
+      convo.push({ role: 'assistant', content })
+      return { content, steps, messages: convo }
+    }
+    convo.push({ role: 'assistant', content, toolCalls })
+    for (const tc of toolCalls) {
+      let result: unknown
+      try {
+        const args = tc.arguments ? JSON.parse(tc.arguments) : {}
+        result = await opts.execute(tc.name, args)
+      } catch (e) {
+        result = { error: e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e) }
+      }
+      const resultStr = stringify(result)
+      steps.push({ tool: tc.name, arguments: tc.arguments, result: resultStr })
+      convo.push({ role: 'tool', toolCallId: tc.id, name: tc.name, content: resultStr })
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Out of tool budget — force a final prose answer with tools withheld.
+  const final = await opts.complete(convo, [], opts.onToken)
+  convo.push({ role: 'assistant', content: final.content })
+  return { content: final.content, steps, messages: convo }
+}

packages/core/src/agent/agent-tools.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+/**
+ * Reginald's tool surface. v0 ships the one read tool (`query_project`); the
+ * three write tools (capture_work, apply_changes, record_directive) layer on
+ * later against the same loop. Few, fat tools so a small local model survives
+ * with one thing to reach for (docs/agent-tools.md).
+ */
+
+import type { ToolDecl } from './chat-client.js'
+
+export const QUERY_PROJECT_TOOL: ToolDecl = {
+  name: 'query_project',
+  description:
+    'Read the current project state. A `view` selects the shape; deterministic code (scheduler, ' +
+    'lifecycle inference, calibration) backs every number — you report it, you never compute it.',
+  parameters: {
+    type: 'object',
+    properties: {
+      view: {
+        type: 'string',
+        enum: ['focus', 'board', 'calibration', 'issue', 'search'],
+        description:
+          'focus = Now/Next/Later; board = issues by lifecycle column; calibration = estimate-vs-actual; ' +
+          'issue = one issue (needs filters.issueId); search = issues matching filters.query.',
+      },
+      filters: {
+        type: 'object',
+        properties: {
+          issueId: { type: 'number' },
+          query: { type: 'string' },
+          limit: { type: 'number' },
+        },
+      },
+    },
+    required: ['view'],
+  },
+}
+
+export const PROPOSE_CHANGE_TOOL: ToolDecl = {
+  name: 'propose_change',
+  description:
+    "Propose an estimate and/or priority change to an issue. This does NOT apply anything — it shows the " +
+    'human a diff to approve. Use it whenever the user asks to re-estimate or reprioritize. After calling it, ' +
+    "tell the user you've *proposed* the change for approval — never say it is done.",
+  parameters: {
+    type: 'object',
+    properties: {
+      issue: { type: 'number', description: 'the issue number to change' },
+      estimate: { type: 'string', enum: ['est/1d', 'est/2d', 'est/3d', 'est/5d', 'est/8d'] },
+      priority: { type: 'string', enum: ['p/1', 'p/2', 'p/3', 'p/4'] },
+    },
+    required: ['issue'],
+  },
+}
+
+export const RECORD_DIRECTIVE_TOOL: ToolDecl = {
+  name: 'record_directive',
+  description:
+    'Log a standing instruction from the PM to the durable directive ledger — a reprioritization, ' +
+    'a re-estimate policy, a deadline, a scope or capacity call, or a plain note. Use it when the user ' +
+    'states intent that should persist ("pilots come first", "freeze scope for beta"). This records the ' +
+    'intent verbatim; the actual issue edits still go through propose_change.',
+  parameters: {
+    type: 'object',
+    properties: {
+      kind: { type: 'string', enum: ['reprioritize', 'reestimate', 'set-deadline', 'scope', 'capacity', 'note'] },
+      quote: { type: 'string', description: "the PM's own words, stored verbatim" },
+      target: {
+        type: 'object',
+        properties: {
+          issue: { type: 'number' },
+          milestone: { type: 'number' },
+          member: { type: 'string' },
+        },
+      },
+      rationale: { type: 'string', description: 'why (optional)' },
+    },
+    required: ['kind', 'quote'],
+  },
+}
+
+export const REGINALD_TOOLS: ToolDecl[] = [QUERY_PROJECT_TOOL, PROPOSE_CHANGE_TOOL, RECORD_DIRECTIVE_TOOL]
+
+export const REGINALD_SYSTEM = [
+  'You are Reginald, the calm, dry project manager inside CommiTea — a tool that runs projects on Gitea.',
+  'Call query_project to ground every answer in the real project; never invent issues, numbers, or dates.',
+  'The scheduler and forecasts are deterministic code — report their output, do not recompute it.',
+  'To change an estimate or priority, call propose_change — it shows the human a diff to approve.',
+  'When the PM states standing intent ("pilots first", "freeze scope"), call record_directive to log it.',
+  'Never claim a change is applied; you propose, the human approves. Forecasts are ranges, never single dates.',
+  'Refer to issues as #<number>. Be brief and plain — a sentence or two. No preamble, no bullet dumps.',
+].join(' ')

packages/core/src/agent/agent.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,281 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import type { FetchLike } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import { type ChatMessage, type CompletionResult, createChatClient, type ToolDecl } from './chat-client.js'
+import { runAgentTurn } from './agent-loop.js'
+import { pickModel } from './model-router.js'
+import { buildProjectView, type ProjectSnapshot } from './query-project.js'
+
+// ---- chat client ----
+
+describe('createChatClient', () => {
+  function stub(body: unknown) {
+    const calls: { url: string; body: unknown }[] = []
+    const fetch: FetchLike = (url, init) => {
+      calls.push({ url, body: init?.body ? JSON.parse(init.body) : undefined })
+      return Promise.resolve({
+        ok: true,
+        status: 200,
+        json: () => Promise.resolve(body),
+        text: () => Promise.resolve(''),
+      })
+    }
+    return { fetch, calls }
+  }
+
+  function sseStub(chunks: string[]) {
+    const calls: { url: string; body: unknown }[] = []
+    const fetch: FetchLike = (url, init) => {
+      calls.push({ url, body: init?.body ? JSON.parse(init.body) : undefined })
+      const enc = new TextEncoder()
+      const body = new ReadableStream<Uint8Array>({
+        start(c) {
+          for (const ch of chunks) c.enqueue(enc.encode(ch))
+          c.close()
+        },
+      })
+      return Promise.resolve({ ok: true, status: 200, body, json: () => Promise.resolve({}), text: () => Promise.resolve('') })
+    }
+    return { fetch, calls }
+  }
+
+  it('streams content deltas via onToken and returns the assembled result', async () => {
+    const { fetch, calls } = sseStub([
+      'data: {"choices":[{"delta":{"content":"Right "}}]}\n\n',
+      'data: {"choices":[{"delta":{"content":"now: #2."}}]}\n\n',
+      'data: [DONE]\n\n',
+    ])
+    const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: 'http://x/v1', model: 'm' }, fetch)
+    const tokens: string[] = []
+    const res = await client.complete([{ role: 'user', content: 'now?' }], undefined, (d) => tokens.push(d))
+
+    expect(tokens).toEqual(['Right ', 'now: #2.'])
+    expect(res.content).toBe('Right now: #2.')
+    expect((calls[0].body as { stream?: boolean }).stream).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('assembles a streamed tool call from argument deltas', async () => {
+    const { fetch } = sseStub([
+      'data: {"choices":[{"delta":{"tool_calls":[{"index":0,"id":"c1","function":{"name":"query_project","arguments":"{\\"view\\""}}]}}]}\n\n',
+      'data: {"choices":[{"delta":{"tool_calls":[{"index":0,"function":{"arguments":":\\"focus\\"}"}}]}}]}\n\n',
+      'data: [DONE]\n\n',
+    ])
+    const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: 'http://x/v1', model: 'm' }, fetch)
+    const res = await client.complete([{ role: 'user', content: 'x' }], [{ name: 'query_project', description: '', parameters: {} }], () => {})
+    expect(res.toolCalls).toEqual([{ id: 'c1', name: 'query_project', arguments: '{"view":"focus"}' }])
+  })
+
+  it('POSTs to /chat/completions and parses content', async () => {
+    const { fetch, calls } = stub({ choices: [{ message: { content: 'the focus is #2' } }] })
+    const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: 'http://localhost:1234/v1', model: 'gemma' }, fetch)
+    const res = await client.complete([{ role: 'user', content: 'what now?' }])
+
+    expect(res.content).toBe('the focus is #2')
+    expect(res.toolCalls).toEqual([])
+    expect(calls[0].url).toBe('http://localhost:1234/v1/chat/completions')
+    expect((calls[0].body as { model: string }).model).toBe('gemma')
+  })
+
+  it('parses tool calls from the wire shape', async () => {
+    const { fetch } = stub({
+      choices: [
+        {
+          message: {
+            content: null,
+            tool_calls: [{ id: 'c1', function: { name: 'query_project', arguments: '{"view":"focus"}' } }],
+          },
+        },
+      ],
+    })
+    const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: 'http://x/v1', model: 'm' }, fetch)
+    const res = await client.complete([{ role: 'user', content: 'x' }], [{ name: 'query_project', description: '', parameters: {} }])
+    expect(res.toolCalls).toEqual([{ id: 'c1', name: 'query_project', arguments: '{"view":"focus"}' }])
+  })
+
+  it('serializes assistant tool_calls + tool results in the request', async () => {
+    const { fetch, calls } = stub({ choices: [{ message: { content: 'ok' } }] })
+    const client = createChatClient({ baseUrl: 'http://x/v1', model: 'm' }, fetch)
+    const convo: ChatMessage[] = [
+      { role: 'user', content: 'hi' },
+      { role: 'assistant', content: '', toolCalls: [{ id: 'c1', name: 'query_project', arguments: '{}' }] },
+      { role: 'tool', toolCallId: 'c1', name: 'query_project', content: '{"now":null}' },
+    ]
+    await client.complete(convo)
+    const sent = (calls[0].body as { messages: Record<string, unknown>[] }).messages
+    expect(sent[1].tool_calls).toBeDefined()
+    expect(sent[2]).toEqual({ role: 'tool', tool_call_id: 'c1', content: '{"now":null}' })
+  })
+})
+
+// ---- model router ----
+
+describe('pickModel', () => {
+  const router = { small: { baseUrl: 'u', model: 'small' }, big: { baseUrl: 'u', model: 'big' } }
+  it('routes plan → big, everything else → small', () => {
+    expect(pickModel(router, 'plan').model).toBe('big')
+    expect(pickModel(router, 'ritual').model).toBe('small')
+  })
+})
+
+// ---- agent loop ----
+
+describe('runAgentTurn', () => {
+  const tools: ToolDecl[] = [{ name: 'query_project', description: '', parameters: {} }]
+
+  it('runs a tool then returns the model prose, recording the step', async () => {
+    // first completion asks for a tool; second answers in prose
+    const scripted: CompletionResult[] = [
+      { content: '', toolCalls: [{ id: 'c1', name: 'query_project', arguments: '{"view":"focus"}' }] },
+      { content: 'Right now: #2.', toolCalls: [] },
+    ]
+    let i = 0
+    const executed: { name: string; args: unknown }[] = []
+    const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+      complete: async () => scripted[i++],
+      messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'what now?' }],
+      tools,
+      execute: async (name, args) => {
+        executed.push({ name, args })
+        return { now: { issue: 2 } }
+      },
+    })
+
+    expect(turn.content).toBe('Right now: #2.')
+    expect(turn.steps).toEqual([
+      { tool: 'query_project', arguments: '{"view":"focus"}', result: '{"now":{"issue":2}}' },
+    ])
+    expect(executed).toEqual([{ name: 'query_project', args: { view: 'focus' } }])
+    // conversation carries user → assistant(tool) → tool → assistant(prose)
+    expect(turn.messages.map((m) => m.role)).toEqual(['user', 'assistant', 'tool', 'assistant'])
+  })
+
+  it('answers directly when the model needs no tool', async () => {
+    const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+      complete: async () => ({ content: 'Hello.', toolCalls: [] }),
+      messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'hi' }],
+      tools,
+      execute: async () => ({}),
+    })
+    expect(turn.content).toBe('Hello.')
+    expect(turn.steps).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('captures a tool executor error as the tool result instead of throwing', async () => {
+    const scripted: CompletionResult[] = [
+      { content: '', toolCalls: [{ id: 'c1', name: 'query_project', arguments: '{}' }] },
+      { content: 'Something went wrong reading that.', toolCalls: [] },
+    ]
+    let i = 0
+    const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+      complete: async () => scripted[i++],
+      messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'x' }],
+      tools,
+      execute: async () => {
+        throw new Error('boom')
+      },
+    })
+    expect(turn.steps[0].result).toContain('boom')
+    expect(turn.content).toBe('Something went wrong reading that.')
+  })
+
+  it('forces a final prose answer when the step budget is exhausted', async () => {
+    // always asks for a tool; the loop must still terminate with prose
+    let toolRounds = 0
+    const turn = await runAgentTurn({
+      complete: async (_m, tls) => {
+        if (tls && tls.length) {
+          toolRounds++
+          return { content: '', toolCalls: [{ id: `c${toolRounds}`, name: 'query_project', arguments: '{}' }] }
+        }
+        return { content: 'final answer', toolCalls: [] } // called with tools withheld
+      },
+      messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'x' }],
+      tools,
+      execute: async () => ({}),
+      maxSteps: 2,
+    })
+    expect(toolRounds).toBe(2)
+    expect(turn.content).toBe('final answer')
+  })
+})
+
+// ---- query_project view builder ----
+
+describe('buildProjectView', () => {
+  const asOf = new Date('2026-02-01T00:00:00Z')
+
+  function issue(over: Partial<GiteaIssue>): GiteaIssue {
+    const labels = over.labels ?? []
+    return {
+      number: 1,
+      title: '#1',
+      body: '',
+      state: 'open',
+      labels,
+      facts: extractLabelFacts(labels),
+      milestone: null,
+      assignee: null,
+      assignees: [],
+      createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
+      updatedAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
+      closedAt: null,
+      url: '',
+      ...over,
+    }
+  }
+
+  const snap: ProjectSnapshot = {
+    issues: [
+      issue({ number: 2, title: 'ChangeSource', labels: ['est/3d', 'p/1'] }),
+      issue({ number: 3, title: 'SQLite cache', labels: ['est/2d', 'p/1'] }),
+      issue({ number: 9, title: 'Done thing', state: 'closed', labels: ['est/2d'], closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' }),
+    ],
+    timelines: { 9: [{ type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z' }, { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' }] },
+    deps: [{ issue: 3, dependsOn: 2 }],
+  }
+
+  it('focus returns Now/Next/Later grounded in the scheduler', () => {
+    const v = buildProjectView('focus', undefined, snap, asOf) as {
+      now: { issue: number } | null
+      openCount: number
+    }
+    expect(v.now?.issue).toBe(2) // #3 depends on #2, so #2 comes first
+    expect(v.openCount).toBe(2)
+  })
+
+  it('board groups issues by lifecycle column', () => {
+    const v = buildProjectView('board', undefined, snap, asOf) as {
+      columns: { column: string; count: number }[]
+    }
+    const done = v.columns.find((c) => c.column === 'done')
+    expect(done?.count).toBe(1) // #9
+    const triage = v.columns.find((c) => c.column === 'triage')
+    expect(triage?.count).toBe(2) // #2, #3 labelled, no commits yet
+  })
+
+  it('calibration reports n + cold-start honestly', () => {
+    const v = buildProjectView('calibration', undefined, snap, asOf) as { n: number; coldStart: boolean }
+    expect(v.n).toBe(1) // one closed, estimated, with an actual
+    expect(v.coldStart).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('issue returns intent + derived for a specific id', () => {
+    const v = buildProjectView('issue', { issueId: 3 }, snap, asOf) as {
+      issue: number
+      blockedBy: number[]
+    }
+    expect(v.issue).toBe(3)
+    expect(v.blockedBy).toEqual([2])
+  })
+
+  it('search matches title/labels', () => {
+    const v = buildProjectView('search', { query: 'sqlite' }, snap, asOf) as { results: { issue: number }[] }
+    expect(v.results.map((r) => r.issue)).toEqual([3])
+  })
+
+  it('unbuilt views return a notImplemented marker, not fabricated data', () => {
+    expect(buildProjectView('standup', undefined, snap, asOf)).toEqual({ notImplemented: 'standup' })
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/agent/capture-work.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import type { CompletionResult } from './chat-client.js'
+import { captureWork, parseCaptureArgs } from './capture-work.js'
+
+describe('parseCaptureArgs', () => {
+  it('validates issues and keeps only real titles + valid labels', () => {
+    const p = parseCaptureArgs({
+      issues: [
+        { title: 'Fix token refresh', body: 'dies silently', estimate: 'est/2d', priority: 'p/1' },
+        { title: '  ', body: 'blank title dropped' },
+        { title: 'Docs', estimate: 'est/9d', priority: 'urgent' }, // invalid labels → dropped to undefined
+      ],
+      consequence: 'Beta slips a day',
+    })
+    expect(p.issues).toHaveLength(2)
+    expect(p.issues[0]).toEqual({ title: 'Fix token refresh', body: 'dies silently', estimate: 'est/2d', priority: 'p/1' })
+    expect(p.issues[1]).toEqual({ title: 'Docs', body: '', estimate: undefined, priority: undefined })
+    expect(p.consequence).toBe('Beta slips a day')
+  })
+
+  it('tolerates a missing/!array issues field', () => {
+    expect(parseCaptureArgs({}).issues).toEqual([])
+    expect(parseCaptureArgs({ issues: 'nope' }).issues).toEqual([])
+  })
+})
+
+describe('captureWork', () => {
+  it('forces propose_issues and returns the validated set', async () => {
+    const result: CompletionResult = {
+      content: '',
+      toolCalls: [
+        {
+          id: 'c1',
+          name: 'propose_issues',
+          arguments: JSON.stringify({
+            issues: [{ title: 'Retry token refresh with backoff', body: '', estimate: 'est/2d', priority: 'p/2' }],
+            consequence: 'no material shift',
+          }),
+        },
+      ],
+    }
+    let sawTool = ''
+    const proposal = await captureWork(async (_m, tools) => {
+      sawTool = tools?.[0]?.name ?? ''
+      return result
+    }, 'auth is flaky, token refresh dies')
+    expect(sawTool).toBe('propose_issues')
+    expect(proposal.issues[0].title).toBe('Retry token refresh with backoff')
+    expect(proposal.consequence).toBe('no material shift')
+  })
+
+  it('returns an empty set when the model answers without the tool', async () => {
+    const proposal = await captureWork(async () => ({ content: 'I need more detail.', toolCalls: [] }), 'vague')
+    expect(proposal.issues).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('survives malformed tool arguments', async () => {
+    const proposal = await captureWork(
+      async () => ({ content: '', toolCalls: [{ id: 'c1', name: 'propose_issues', arguments: '{not json' }] }),
+      'x',
+    )
+    expect(proposal.issues).toEqual([])
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/agent/capture-work.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+/**
+ * capture_work — braindump → a small set of concrete issues. This is the one
+ * place the big model earns its keep (decomposition + estimate negotiation).
+ * It returns a *proposal*; nothing is filed until the human approves it in the
+ * Capture tray and it goes through the create-issue write path. Pure
+ * orchestration over an injected `complete` — stubbable, so it's testable offline.
+ */
+
+import {
+  type EstimateLabel,
+  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
+  type PriorityLabel,
+  PRIORITY_LABELS,
+} from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+import type { ChatMessage, CompletionResult, ToolDecl } from './chat-client.js'
+
+export interface ProposedIssue {
+  title: string
+  body: string
+  estimate?: EstimateLabel
+  priority?: PriorityLabel
+}
+
+export interface CaptureProposal {
+  issues: ProposedIssue[]
+  /** One-line schedule impact, if the model offered one. */
+  consequence?: string
+}
+
+export const PROPOSE_ISSUES_TOOL: ToolDecl = {
+  name: 'propose_issues',
+  description: 'Return the decomposed issue set for a braindump. Call this exactly once.',
+  parameters: {
+    type: 'object',
+    properties: {
+      issues: {
+        type: 'array',
+        items: {
+          type: 'object',
+          properties: {
+            title: { type: 'string', description: 'a clear imperative title' },
+            body: { type: 'string', description: 'one or two lines of detail' },
+            estimate: { type: 'string', enum: ['est/1d', 'est/2d', 'est/3d', 'est/5d', 'est/8d'] },
+            priority: { type: 'string', enum: ['p/1', 'p/2', 'p/3', 'p/4'] },
+          },
+          required: ['title'],
+        },
+      },
+      consequence: { type: 'string', description: 'one-line note on the schedule impact' },
+    },
+    required: ['issues'],
+  },
+}
+
+export const CAPTURE_SYSTEM = [
+  'You are Reginald, decomposing a rough braindump into a small set of concrete Gitea issues.',
+  'Call propose_issues exactly once. Split genuinely separate work; merge trivially-coupled work; invent no scope.',
+  'Each issue gets an imperative title, a one-line body, an estimate (est/1d…8d) and a priority (p/1…4).',
+  'Estimate honestly — a "quick" task is rarely one day. Keep the set tight; three good issues beat eight vague ones.',
+].join(' ')
+
+function isEstimate(v: unknown): v is EstimateLabel {
+  return typeof v === 'string' && (ESTIMATE_LABELS as readonly string[]).includes(v)
+}
+function isPriority(v: unknown): v is PriorityLabel {
+  return typeof v === 'string' && (PRIORITY_LABELS as readonly string[]).includes(v)
+}
+
+/** Coerce the model's raw propose_issues args into a validated proposal. */
+export function parseCaptureArgs(args: unknown): CaptureProposal {
+  const a = (args ?? {}) as { issues?: unknown[]; consequence?: unknown }
+  const issues: ProposedIssue[] = []
+  for (const raw of Array.isArray(a.issues) ? a.issues : []) {
+    const r = (raw ?? {}) as Record<string, unknown>
+    const title = typeof r.title === 'string' ? r.title.trim() : ''
+    if (!title) continue
+    issues.push({
+      title,
+      body: typeof r.body === 'string' ? r.body : '',
+      estimate: isEstimate(r.estimate) ? r.estimate : undefined,
+      priority: isPriority(r.priority) ? r.priority : undefined,
+    })
+  }
+  return { issues, consequence: typeof a.consequence === 'string' ? a.consequence : undefined }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Run one decomposition turn. Forces the model to answer via propose_issues and
+ * returns the validated set. An empty set means the model declined to structure it.
+ */
+export async function captureWork(
+  complete: (messages: ChatMessage[], tools?: ToolDecl[]) => Promise<CompletionResult>,
+  braindump: string,
+): Promise<CaptureProposal> {
+  const res = await complete(
+    [
+      { role: 'system', content: CAPTURE_SYSTEM },
+      { role: 'user', content: braindump },
+    ],
+    [PROPOSE_ISSUES_TOOL],
+  )
+  const call = res.toolCalls.find((t) => t.name === 'propose_issues')
+  if (!call) return { issues: [] }
+  try {
+    return parseCaptureArgs(JSON.parse(call.arguments || '{}'))
+  } catch {
+    return { issues: [] }
+  }
+}

packages/core/src/agent/chat-client.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+/**
+ * Reginald's model client — a thin OpenAI-wire chat-completions client over an
+ * injected fetch (the same seam the gitea client uses). `@commitea/core` stays
+ * pure: no network, no globals. The desktop main process passes the real
+ * `fetch`; tests pass a stub. Points at any OpenAI-compatible endpoint (LM
+ * Studio, Ollama, the OpenAI API) — the model router picks which.
+ */
+
+import type { FetchLike } from '../gitea/types.js'
+
+/** Where a model lives + which model to ask for. */
+export interface ModelConfig {
+  /** OpenAI-compatible base, including the version segment, e.g. `http://localhost:1234/v1`. */
+  baseUrl: string
+  model: string
+  /** Bearer key; omitted for local servers that don't check it. */
+  apiKey?: string
+}
+
+/** A model's request to run a tool. `arguments` is a raw JSON string (OpenAI shape). */
+export interface ToolCall {
+  id: string
+  name: string
+  arguments: string
+}
+
+/** One turn in the conversation, in our normalized shape. */
+export interface ChatMessage {
+  role: 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant' | 'tool'
+  content: string
+  /** assistant turns that requested tools. */
+  toolCalls?: ToolCall[]
+  /** tool turns: which call they answer. */
+  toolCallId?: string
+  /** tool turns: the function name. */
+  name?: string
+}
+
+/** A tool the model may call — name, description, and a JSON-Schema parameter spec. */
+export interface ToolDecl {
+  name: string
+  description: string
+  parameters: object
+}
+
+export interface CompletionResult {
+  content: string
+  toolCalls: ToolCall[]
+}
+
+/** Called with each streamed content delta (final-prose streaming). */
+export type OnToken = (delta: string) => void
+
+export interface ChatClient {
+  /** When `onToken` is given, the response streams (SSE) and each content delta is emitted. */
+  complete(messages: ChatMessage[], tools?: ToolDecl[], onToken?: OnToken): Promise<CompletionResult>
+}
+
+/** Map our message shape to the OpenAI wire shape. */
+function toWireMessage(m: ChatMessage): Record<string, unknown> {
+  if (m.role === 'assistant' && m.toolCalls?.length) {
+    return {
+      role: 'assistant',
+      content: m.content || null,
+      tool_calls: m.toolCalls.map((tc) => ({
+        id: tc.id,
+        type: 'function',
+        function: { name: tc.name, arguments: tc.arguments },
+      })),
+    }
+  }
+  if (m.role === 'tool') {
+    return { role: 'tool', tool_call_id: m.toolCallId, content: m.content }
+  }
+  return { role: m.role, content: m.content }
+}
+
+function toWireTool(t: ToolDecl): Record<string, unknown> {
+  return { type: 'function', function: { name: t.name, description: t.description, parameters: t.parameters } }
+}
+
+/** Shape of the one choice we read back. */
+interface RawChoiceMessage {
+  content: string | null
+  tool_calls?: { id: string; function: { name: string; arguments: string } }[]
+}
+
+export function createChatClient(config: ModelConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): ChatClient {
+  const url = `${config.baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/chat/completions`
+
+  return {
+    async complete(messages, tools, onToken) {
+      const body: Record<string, unknown> = {
+        model: config.model,
+        messages: messages.map(toWireMessage),
+        temperature: 0,
+      }
+      if (tools?.length) {
+        body.tools = tools.map(toWireTool)
+        body.tool_choice = 'auto'
+      }
+      const stream = !!onToken
+      if (stream) body.stream = true
+      const res = await fetchImpl(url, {
+        method: 'POST',
+        headers: {
+          'Content-Type': 'application/json',
+          Accept: stream ? 'text/event-stream' : 'application/json',
+          ...(config.apiKey ? { Authorization: `Bearer ${config.apiKey}` } : {}),
+        },
+        body: JSON.stringify(body),
+      })
+      if (!res.ok) {
+        const text = await res.text().catch(() => '')
+        throw new Error(`model completion failed (${res.status}): ${text.slice(0, 200)}`)
+      }
+      if (stream && res.body) return readStream(res.body, onToken!)
+
+      const json = (await res.json()) as { choices?: { message: RawChoiceMessage }[] }
+      const msg = json.choices?.[0]?.message
+      return {
+        content: msg?.content ?? '',
+        toolCalls: (msg?.tool_calls ?? []).map((tc) => ({
+          id: tc.id,
+          name: tc.function.name,
+          arguments: tc.function.arguments,
+        })),
+      }
+    },
+  }
+}
+
+/** Streamed tool-call delta: name arrives first, arguments accumulate across chunks. */
+interface RawToolDelta {
+  index: number
+  id?: string
+  function?: { name?: string; arguments?: string }
+}
+
+/** Parse an OpenAI SSE stream: emit content deltas via onToken, accumulate the final result. */
+async function readStream(body: ReadableStream<Uint8Array>, onToken: OnToken): Promise<CompletionResult> {
+  const reader = body.getReader()
+  const decoder = new TextDecoder()
+  let buffer = ''
+  let content = ''
+  const toolAcc: { id: string; name: string; arguments: string }[] = []
+
+  const handle = (data: string) => {
+    if (data === '[DONE]') return
+    let chunk: { choices?: { delta?: { content?: string; tool_calls?: RawToolDelta[] } }[] }
+    try {
+      chunk = JSON.parse(data)
+    } catch {
+      return
+    }
+    const delta = chunk.choices?.[0]?.delta
+    if (!delta) return
+    if (delta.content) {
+      content += delta.content
+      onToken(delta.content)
+    }
+    for (const tc of delta.tool_calls ?? []) {
+      const slot = (toolAcc[tc.index] ??= { id: '', name: '', arguments: '' })
+      if (tc.id) slot.id = tc.id
+      if (tc.function?.name) slot.name = tc.function.name
+      if (tc.function?.arguments) slot.arguments += tc.function.arguments
+    }
+  }
+
+  for (;;) {
+    const { done, value } = await reader.read()
+    if (done) break
+    buffer += decoder.decode(value, { stream: true })
+    const lines = buffer.split('\n')
+    buffer = lines.pop() ?? ''
+    for (const line of lines) {
+      const t = line.trim()
+      if (t.startsWith('data:')) handle(t.slice(5).trim())
+    }
+  }
+  if (buffer.trim().startsWith('data:')) handle(buffer.trim().slice(5).trim())
+
+  return { content, toolCalls: toolAcc.filter((t) => t.name).map((t) => ({ id: t.id, name: t.name, arguments: t.arguments })) }
+}

packages/core/src/agent/model-router.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+/**
+ * Model router (per PLAN.md / decisions.md): prose + the read tool run on a
+ * small local model; decomposition/negotiation earns the big one. Reginald v0
+ * only exercises the small model (read + prose); the `big` slot is declared so
+ * `capture_work` / `record_directive` can route to it without a rewrite.
+ */
+
+import type { ModelConfig } from './chat-client.js'
+
+export type TaskKind = 'ritual' | 'plan'
+
+export interface ModelRouter {
+  /** Small local model — standups, focus prose, the read tool. */
+  small: ModelConfig
+  /** Big model — capture decomposition, directive negotiation. */
+  big: ModelConfig
+}
+
+/** `plan` → the big model; everything else → the small one. */
+export function pickModel(router: ModelRouter, kind: TaskKind): ModelConfig {
+  return kind === 'plan' ? router.big : router.small
+}

packages/core/src/agent/query-project.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+/**
+ * `query_project` — Reginald's single read tool. It selects a compact,
+ * model-friendly view over the reconciled backlog. Every number comes from
+ * deterministic code (scheduler, lifecycle inference, calibration); the model
+ * only requests a shape and narrates it — it never computes (decisions.md).
+ *
+ * v0 serves focus / board / calibration / issue. The remaining views
+ * (milestone / runway / standup / search) return a `notImplemented` marker so
+ * the model degrades honestly instead of inventing data.
+ */
+
+import { fitCalibration, calibrationSamples } from '../calibration/calibration-v0.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import { inferLifecycle, type LifecycleColumn, type LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+import { type DependencyEdge, schedule, selectFocus } from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+
+export type ProjectView =
+  | 'focus'
+  | 'board'
+  | 'calibration'
+  | 'issue'
+  | 'milestone'
+  | 'runway'
+  | 'standup'
+  | 'search'
+
+export interface QueryFilters {
+  issueId?: number
+  query?: string
+  limit?: number
+}
+
+/** The reconciled inputs a view is built from. */
+export interface ProjectSnapshot {
+  issues: GiteaIssue[]
+  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
+  deps: DependencyEdge[]
+}
+
+const COLUMN_ORDER: LifecycleColumn[] = ['diagnosis', 'triage', 'steeping', 'review', 'done']
+
+function toSchedulable(issues: GiteaIssue[]) {
+  return issues
+    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
+    .map((i) => ({
+      number: i.number,
+      title: i.title,
+      labels: i.labels,
+      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
+      priority: i.facts.priority,
+    }))
+}
+
+function focusView(snap: ProjectSnapshot) {
+  const plan = schedule(toSchedulable(snap.issues), snap.deps)
+  const f = selectFocus(plan)
+  const slot = (item: (typeof plan.items)[number] | null) =>
+    item ? { issue: item.number, title: item.title, rationale: item.rationale } : null
+  return { now: slot(f.now), next: slot(f.next), later: slot(f.later), openCount: plan.items.length }
+}
+
+function boardView(snap: ProjectSnapshot, asOf: Date) {
+  const columns: Record<string, { issue: number; title: string; labels: string[] }[]> = {}
+  for (const key of COLUMN_ORDER) columns[key] = []
+  for (const issue of snap.issues) {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, snap.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
+    columns[inf.column].push({ issue: issue.number, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels })
+  }
+  return {
+    columns: COLUMN_ORDER.map((key) => ({ column: key, count: columns[key].length, issues: columns[key] })),
+  }
+}
+
+function calibrationView(snap: ProjectSnapshot, asOf: Date) {
+  const model = fitCalibration(calibrationSamples(snap.issues, snap.timelines, asOf))
+  return {
+    n: model.n,
+    coldStart: model.coldStart,
+    globalMultiplier: Number(Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)),
+    byBucket: Object.entries(model.byBucket).map(([bucket, fit]) => ({
+      estimate: `est/${bucket}d`,
+      n: fit.n,
+      multiplier: Number(Math.exp(fit.mu).toFixed(2)),
+    })),
+  }
+}
+
+function issueView(snap: ProjectSnapshot, filters: QueryFilters, asOf: Date) {
+  const issue = snap.issues.find((i) => i.number === filters.issueId)
+  if (!issue) return { notFound: filters.issueId ?? null }
+  const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, snap.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
+  const blockedBy = snap.deps.filter((d) => d.issue === issue.number).map((d) => d.dependsOn)
+  const blocks = snap.deps.filter((d) => d.dependsOn === issue.number).map((d) => d.issue)
+  return {
+    issue: issue.number,
+    title: issue.title,
+    state: issue.state,
+    column: inf.column,
+    labels: issue.labels,
+    assignee: issue.assignee,
+    milestone: issue.milestone?.title ?? null,
+    estimateDays: issue.facts.estimateDays,
+    priority: issue.facts.priority,
+    steepingDays: inf.steepingDays,
+    blockedBy,
+    blocks,
+  }
+}
+
+function searchView(snap: ProjectSnapshot, filters: QueryFilters) {
+  const q = (filters.query ?? '').toLowerCase().trim()
+  const limit = Math.min(filters.limit ?? 20, 100)
+  const hits = q
+    ? snap.issues.filter(
+        (i) => i.title.toLowerCase().includes(q) || i.labels.some((l) => l.toLowerCase().includes(q)),
+      )
+    : []
+  return {
+    query: filters.query ?? '',
+    results: hits.slice(0, limit).map((i) => ({ issue: i.number, title: i.title, state: i.state, labels: i.labels })),
+  }
+}
+
+/** Build the compact payload for one view. Unknown/unbuilt views return a marker. */
+export function buildProjectView(
+  view: ProjectView,
+  filters: QueryFilters | undefined,
+  snap: ProjectSnapshot,
+  asOf: Date,
+): unknown {
+  const f = filters ?? {}
+  switch (view) {
+    case 'focus':
+      return focusView(snap)
+    case 'board':
+      return boardView(snap, asOf)
+    case 'calibration':
+      return calibrationView(snap, asOf)
+    case 'issue':
+      return issueView(snap, f, asOf)
+    case 'search':
+      return searchView(snap, f)
+    default:
+      return { notImplemented: view }
+  }
+}

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+import type { LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+import {
+  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  type CalibrationSample,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
+  fitCalibration,
+  toDurationModel,
+} from './calibration-v0.js'
+
+function sample(over: Partial<CalibrationSample> = {}): CalibrationSample {
+  return { issue: 1, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 2, bucket: 2, person: null, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('fitCalibration', () => {
+  it('is cold-start below the threshold and reports the honest n', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration([sample(), sample({ actualWorkingDays: 4 })])
+    expect(m.n).toBe(2)
+    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('flips off cold-start at the threshold', () => {
+    const many = Array.from({ length: COLD_START_THRESHOLD }, (_, i) =>
+      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
+    )
+    const m = fitCalibration(many)
+    expect(m.n).toBe(COLD_START_THRESHOLD)
+    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('recovers the global median ratio (mu = mean log-ratio)', () => {
+    // every actual is exactly 2x its estimate → mu = ln 2
+    const m = fitCalibration(Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 4 })))
+    expect(m.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(Math.log(2), 6)
+  })
+
+  it('fits a bucket only once it clears the floor', () => {
+    const twos = Array.from({ length: CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR }, (_, i) =>
+      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
+    )
+    const oneThin = [sample({ issue: 99, estimateDays: 5, actualWorkingDays: 9, bucket: 5 })]
+    const m = fitCalibration([...twos, ...oneThin])
+    expect(m.byBucket[2]?.n).toBe(CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR)
+    expect(m.byBucket[5]).toBeUndefined() // only 1 sample, below floor
+  })
+
+  it('drops non-positive estimates/actuals', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration([sample({ actualWorkingDays: 0 }), sample({ estimateDays: 0 }), sample()])
+    expect(m.n).toBe(1)
+  })
+
+  it('derives a per-person bias relative to global', () => {
+    // one person consistently runs longer than the mean
+    const base = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, actualWorkingDays: 2, person: 'ak' }))
+    const slow = Array.from({ length: 3 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: 100 + i, actualWorkingDays: 6, person: 'sm' }))
+    const m = fitCalibration([...base, ...slow])
+    expect(m.byPerson['sm'].biasMu).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+    expect(m.byPerson['ak'].biasMu).toBeLessThan(0)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('toDurationModel', () => {
+  it('projects the fit down to the params forecast needs', () => {
+    const m = fitCalibration(
+      Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 })),
+    )
+    const dm = toDurationModel(m)
+    expect(dm.coldStart).toBe(false)
+    expect(dm.byBucket[2].mu).toBeCloseTo(m.byBucket[2].mu, 6)
+    expect(dm.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(m.global.mu, 6)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('calibrationSamples', () => {
+  const asOf = new Date('2026-02-01T00:00:00Z')
+
+  function issue(over: Partial<GiteaIssue>): GiteaIssue {
+    const labels = over.labels ?? []
+    return {
+      number: 1,
+      title: '#1',
+      body: '',
+      state: 'closed',
+      labels,
+      facts: extractLabelFacts(labels),
+      milestone: null,
+      assignee: null,
+      assignees: [],
+      createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
+      updatedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
+      closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
+      url: '',
+      ...over,
+    }
+  }
+
+  const events = (i: number): Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]> => ({
+    [i]: [{ type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z' }, { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' }],
+  })
+
+  it('samples closed, estimated issues with a resolvable actual', () => {
+    const i = issue({ number: 7, labels: ['est/2d'], assignee: 'sm', closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' })
+    const [s] = calibrationSamples([i], events(7), asOf)
+    expect(s.issue).toBe(7)
+    expect(s.estimateDays).toBe(2)
+    expect(s.bucket).toBe(2)
+    expect(s.person).toBe('sm')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Mon 2026-01-12 = Wed,Thu,Fri = 3 working days
+    expect(s.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+
+  it('skips open issues and closed ones without an estimate', () => {
+    const open = issue({ number: 8, state: 'open', labels: ['est/2d'], closedAt: null })
+    const noEst = issue({ number: 9, labels: [] })
+    expect(calibrationSamples([open, noEst], { ...events(8), ...events(9) }, asOf)).toEqual([])
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+/**
+ * Calibration, v0 — fit the team's own estimate-vs-actual history so the
+ * forecast stops guessing (D3). The "actual" is the working time lifecycle
+ * inference derives from git events (#5), never manual tracking. Fit a
+ * lognormal on log(actual / estimate) globally and per estimate bucket; until
+ * the sample clears the cold-start threshold, the forecast keeps using the
+ * code-resident priors and this model just reports progress toward it.
+ */
+
+import { type DurationModel, type LognormalPrior, nearestBucket } from '../forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+import { inferLifecycle, type LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
+
+/** Global sample size at which the fit takes over from the cold-start priors. */
+export const COLD_START_THRESHOLD = 20
+/** Minimum per-bucket sample before that bucket earns its own fit. */
+export const CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR = 3
+/** Fallback spread when a group is too small to estimate one. */
+const DEFAULT_SIGMA = 0.4
+
+/** One closed issue's estimate vs its inferred actual. */
+export interface CalibrationSample {
+  issue: number
+  estimateDays: number
+  actualWorkingDays: number
+  bucket: number
+  person: string | null
+}
+
+export interface BucketFit extends LognormalPrior {
+  n: number
+}
+
+export interface PersonBias {
+  /** Additive to global mu (log space). */
+  biasMu: number
+  n: number
+}
+
+export interface CalibrationModel {
+  /** Closed issues with an estimate + a resolvable actual. */
+  n: number
+  /** true while n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD — forecast keeps the code priors. */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  global: LognormalPrior
+  byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit>
+  byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias>
+}
+
+function mean(xs: number[]): number {
+  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length
+}
+
+/** Sample standard deviation; falls back to DEFAULT_SIGMA below 2 points. */
+function stddev(xs: number[], mu: number): number {
+  if (xs.length < 2) return DEFAULT_SIGMA
+  const variance = xs.reduce((a, x) => a + (x - mu) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)
+  return Math.sqrt(variance) || DEFAULT_SIGMA
+}
+
+/** Fit a calibration model from estimate-vs-actual samples. Pure. */
+export function fitCalibration(samples: CalibrationSample[]): CalibrationModel {
+  const usable = samples.filter((s) => s.estimateDays > 0 && s.actualWorkingDays > 0)
+  const n = usable.length
+  const coldStart = n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD
+
+  const logRatios = usable.map((s) => Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays))
+  const globalMu = n ? mean(logRatios) : 0
+  const global: LognormalPrior = { mu: globalMu, sigma: n ? stddev(logRatios, globalMu) : DEFAULT_SIGMA }
+
+  const byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit> = {}
+  const byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias> = {}
+  const groups = new Map<number, number[]>()
+  const people = new Map<string, number[]>()
+  for (const s of usable) {
+    const lr = Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays)
+    ;(groups.get(s.bucket) ?? groups.set(s.bucket, []).get(s.bucket)!).push(lr)
+    if (s.person) (people.get(s.person) ?? people.set(s.person, []).get(s.person)!).push(lr)
+  }
+  for (const [bucket, lrs] of groups) {
+    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
+    const mu = mean(lrs)
+    byBucket[bucket] = { mu, sigma: stddev(lrs, mu), n: lrs.length }
+  }
+  for (const [person, lrs] of people) {
+    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
+    byPerson[person] = { biasMu: mean(lrs) - globalMu, n: lrs.length }
+  }
+
+  return { n, coldStart, global, byBucket, byPerson }
+}
+
+/** The subset of a model `forecast` consumes. */
+export function toDurationModel(model: CalibrationModel): DurationModel {
+  const byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {}
+  for (const [bucket, fit] of Object.entries(model.byBucket)) {
+    byBucket[Number(bucket)] = { mu: fit.mu, sigma: fit.sigma }
+  }
+  return { coldStart: model.coldStart, global: model.global, byBucket }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Extract calibration samples from the closed backlog: each closed issue that
+ * carries an estimate and yields an inferred actual working duration.
+ */
+export function calibrationSamples(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>,
+  asOf: Date,
+): CalibrationSample[] {
+  const out: CalibrationSample[] = []
+  for (const issue of issues) {
+    if (issue.state !== 'closed') continue
+    const estimateDays = issue.facts.estimateDays
+    if (estimateDays == null) continue
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
+    if (inf.actualWorkingDays == null || inf.actualWorkingDays <= 0) continue
+    out.push({
+      issue: issue.number,
+      estimateDays,
+      actualWorkingDays: inf.actualWorkingDays,
+      bucket: nearestBucket(estimateDays),
+      person: issue.assignee,
+    })
+  }
+  return out
+}

packages/core/src/capacity/capacity-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { type DependencyEdge, type SchedulableIssue } from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+import { makespan, scheduleWithCapacity, type Worker } from '../scheduler/scheduler-capacity-v0.js'
+import { capacityPerWorkday, parseCapacityConfig } from './capacity-v0.js'
+
+describe('capacity model', () => {
+  it('capacityPerWorkday = focusFactor × allocation', () => {
+    expect(capacityPerWorkday({ person: 'a', focusFactor: 0.8, allocation: 0.5 })).toBeCloseTo(0.4)
+  })
+
+  it('parses + clamps config, drops invalid members', () => {
+    const members = parseCapacityConfig({
+      members: [
+        { person: 'christian', focusFactor: 0.8, allocation: 1 },
+        { person: 'ak', focusFactor: 1.5, allocation: -1 }, // clamps to 1 / 0 → zero capacity → dropped
+        { focusFactor: 0.8 }, // no person → dropped
+      ],
+    })
+    expect(members).toEqual([{ person: 'christian', focusFactor: 0.8, allocation: 1 }])
+  })
+
+  it('returns [] for a non-array/absent members field', () => {
+    expect(parseCapacityConfig({})).toEqual([])
+    expect(parseCapacityConfig({ members: 'nope' })).toEqual([])
+  })
+})
+
+function issue(number: number, over: Partial<SchedulableIssue> = {}): SchedulableIssue {
+  return { number, title: `#${number}`, labels: [], estimateDays: 4, priority: 2, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('scheduleWithCapacity', () => {
+  it('with no workers, falls back to the single serial plan', () => {
+    const issues = [issue(1), issue(2)]
+    const plan = scheduleWithCapacity(issues, [], [])
+    expect(makespan(plan)).toBe(8) // 4 + 4 serial
+  })
+
+  it('parallelizes independent work across lanes (makespan shrinks)', () => {
+    const issues = [issue(1), issue(2), issue(3), issue(4)] // 4×4d = 16d serial
+    const one: Worker[] = [{ person: 'a', speed: 1 }]
+    const two: Worker[] = [
+      { person: 'a', speed: 1 },
+      { person: 'b', speed: 1 },
+    ]
+    expect(makespan(scheduleWithCapacity(issues, [], one))).toBe(16)
+    expect(makespan(scheduleWithCapacity(issues, [], two))).toBe(8) // two lanes → half
+  })
+
+  it('scales duration by a lane speed (slower lane takes longer)', () => {
+    const plan = scheduleWithCapacity([issue(1, { estimateDays: 4 })], [], [{ person: 'a', speed: 0.5 }])
+    expect(plan.items[0].durationDays).toBe(8) // 4 / 0.5
+    expect(plan.items[0].worker).toBe('a')
+  })
+
+  it('routes an issue to its assignee lane', () => {
+    const issues = [issue(1, { assignee: 'ak' }), issue(2, { assignee: 'sm' })]
+    const workers: Worker[] = [
+      { person: 'ak', speed: 1 },
+      { person: 'sm', speed: 1 },
+    ]
+    const plan = scheduleWithCapacity(issues, [], workers)
+    const byN = Object.fromEntries(plan.items.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
+    expect(byN[1].worker).toBe('ak')
+    expect(byN[2].worker).toBe('sm')
+    // both start at 0 (different lanes) → parallel
+    expect(byN[1].startDay).toBe(0)
+    expect(byN[2].startDay).toBe(0)
+  })
+
+  it('adds a lane for an assignee not in the config (mean speed)', () => {
+    const plan = scheduleWithCapacity([issue(1, { assignee: 'newbie' })], [], [{ person: 'a', speed: 0.5 }])
+    expect(plan.items[0].worker).toBe('newbie')
+    expect(plan.items[0].durationDays).toBe(8) // mean speed 0.5 → 4/0.5
+  })
+
+  it('respects dependencies across lanes (a blocker finishes before its dependent starts)', () => {
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [{ issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 }]
+    const workers: Worker[] = [
+      { person: 'a', speed: 1 },
+      { person: 'b', speed: 1 },
+    ]
+    const plan = scheduleWithCapacity([issue(1), issue(2)], edges, workers)
+    const byN = Object.fromEntries(plan.items.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
+    expect(byN[2].startDay).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(byN[1].endDay) // #2 waits for #1 even on another lane
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/capacity/capacity-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+/**
+ * Capacity model (#8). A member's throughput is `focusFactor × allocation` =
+ * ideal person-days of project work delivered per calendar working day. The
+ * scheduler treats each member as a lane whose task durations are scaled by that
+ * rate (a 0.5-capacity person takes twice as long on an est/2d task). Config
+ * lives in the pm-state repo (`capacity/members.yaml/json`, D4); estimates are
+ * in ideal person-days (pm-state.md).
+ */
+
+export interface CapacityMember {
+  /** gitea login. */
+  person: string
+  /** Productive fraction of a working day (0..1). */
+  focusFactor: number
+  /** Fraction of that allocated to this project (0..1). */
+  allocation: number
+}
+
+/** Ideal person-days delivered per calendar working day. */
+export function capacityPerWorkday(m: CapacityMember): number {
+  return m.focusFactor * m.allocation
+}
+
+function clamp01(n: unknown, fallback: number): number {
+  return typeof n === 'number' && Number.isFinite(n) ? Math.min(1, Math.max(0, n)) : fallback
+}
+
+/**
+ * Validate a raw capacity config (`{ members: [...] }`) into members. Unknown
+ * shapes degrade to `[]` (→ the scheduler falls back to a single worker), never
+ * throw. focusFactor/allocation clamp to [0,1]; a member without a person is dropped.
+ */
+export function parseCapacityConfig(raw: unknown): CapacityMember[] {
+  const list = (raw as { members?: unknown })?.members
+  if (!Array.isArray(list)) return []
+  const out: CapacityMember[] = []
+  for (const m of list) {
+    const r = (m ?? {}) as Record<string, unknown>
+    const person = typeof r.person === 'string' ? r.person.trim() : ''
+    if (!person) continue
+    const member: CapacityMember = {
+      person,
+      focusFactor: clamp01(r.focusFactor, 0.8),
+      allocation: clamp01(r.allocation, 1),
+    }
+    if (capacityPerWorkday(member) > 0) out.push(member)
+  }
+  return out
+}

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { describeChange, type IssueChange, planIssueChange, proposalsFor } from './apply-changes-v0.js'
+
+describe('planIssueChange', () => {
+  it('swaps the estimate label, keeping non-axis labels', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1', 'backend'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'backend', 'est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('adds an estimate when none was set', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['p/2'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/1d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual([])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/1d'])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/2', 'est/1d'])
+  })
+
+  it('clears the axis when the target is null', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/3d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['p/1'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual([])
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/3d'])
+  })
+
+  it('is a noop when the target already holds the axis alone', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/2d' })
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(true)
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/2d'])
+  })
+
+  it('cleans up a duplicated axis down to the target', () => {
+    // two est/* labels — the change collapses to one
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'est/5d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
+    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
+    expect(plan.added).toEqual([]) // est/5d already present
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/5d'])
+    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('reprioritize only touches the priority axis', () => {
+    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/3'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: 'p/1' })
+    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/2d', 'p/1'])
+  })
+
+  it('describeChange renders the diff', () => {
+    const change: IssueChange = { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' }
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/2d'], change))).toBe('est/2d → est/5d')
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null }))).toBe('p/1 → ∅')
+    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/5d'], change))).toBe('no change')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('proposalsFor', () => {
+  it('builds one proposal per changed axis, carrying the concrete change + diff', () => {
+    const props = proposalsFor({ issue: 2, estimate: 'est/5d', priority: 'p/1' }, ['est/2d', 'p/3'], 'ChangeSource')
+    expect(props).toHaveLength(2)
+    expect(props[0].change).toEqual({ kind: 'reestimate', issue: 2, estimate: 'est/5d' })
+    expect(describeChange(props[0].plan)).toBe('est/2d → est/5d')
+    expect(props[1].change).toEqual({ kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 2, priority: 'p/1' })
+    expect(props[0].issueTitle).toBe('ChangeSource')
+  })
+
+  it('drops a noop axis (already at the requested value)', () => {
+    const props = proposalsFor({ issue: 2, estimate: 'est/2d', priority: 'p/1' }, ['est/2d', 'p/3'])
+    expect(props.map((p) => p.change.kind)).toEqual(['reprioritize']) // estimate unchanged
+  })
+
+  it('ignores invalid label values from the model', () => {
+    const props = proposalsFor({ issue: 2, estimate: 'est/4d' as never, priority: 'high' as never }, [])
+    expect(props).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('returns nothing when no axis is provided', () => {
+    expect(proposalsFor({ issue: 2 }, ['est/2d'])).toEqual([])
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+/**
+ * Apply-changes, v0 — the write path's planning half. Estimates and priority
+ * live as exclusive label axes (`est/*`, `p/*`); a change swaps the axis label.
+ * This computes the resulting label set + a human-readable diff *purely*, so the
+ * UI can show a propose-approve consequence before the write and tests can pin
+ * the semantics. The actual PUT (name→id resolution + network) is the bridge's
+ * job — additive here, never assumed.
+ */
+
+import {
+  type EstimateLabel,
+  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
+  type PriorityLabel,
+  PRIORITY_LABELS,
+} from '../labels/label-schema.js'
+
+export type IssueChange =
+  | { kind: 'reestimate'; issue: number; estimate: EstimateLabel | null }
+  | { kind: 'reprioritize'; issue: number; priority: PriorityLabel | null }
+
+export interface LabelPlan {
+  /** The full resulting label-name set (order: kept labels, then the new axis label). */
+  labels: string[]
+  /** Axis labels being added (0 or 1). */
+  added: string[]
+  /** Axis labels being removed (includes clearing a duplicated axis). */
+  removed: string[]
+  /** true when the change would leave the labels unchanged. */
+  noop: boolean
+}
+
+function axisFor(change: IssueChange): { labels: readonly string[]; target: string | null } {
+  return change.kind === 'reestimate'
+    ? { labels: ESTIMATE_LABELS, target: change.estimate }
+    : { labels: PRIORITY_LABELS, target: change.priority }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Plan the label mutation for a single change. Removes every label on the
+ * change's axis except the target, adds the target if absent. Setting the axis
+ * to null clears it. Cleans up a duplicated axis (two `est/*`) as a side effect.
+ */
+export function planIssueChange(current: string[], change: IssueChange): LabelPlan {
+  const { labels: axis, target } = axisFor(change)
+  const onAxis = current.filter((l) => axis.includes(l))
+  const removed = onAxis.filter((l) => l !== target)
+  const added = target && !current.includes(target) ? [target] : []
+  const kept = current.filter((l) => !axis.includes(l))
+  const labels = target ? [...kept, target] : kept
+  return { labels, added, removed, noop: added.length === 0 && removed.length === 0 }
+}
+
+/** A short "est/2d → est/3d" (or "+p/1" / "−est/5d") summary for the confirm UI. */
+export function describeChange(plan: LabelPlan): string {
+  if (plan.noop) return 'no change'
+  const from = plan.removed.length ? plan.removed.join(', ') : '∅'
+  const to = plan.added.length ? plan.added.join(', ') : '∅'
+  return `${from} → ${to}`
+}
+
+/** A change the agent proposes: the concrete op + its diff, ready for approve-then-apply. */
+export interface ChangeProposal {
+  change: IssueChange
+  plan: LabelPlan
+  issueTitle?: string
+}
+
+/** What the `propose_change` tool accepts — a target issue and the axes to set. */
+export interface ProposeChangeArgs {
+  issue: number
+  estimate?: EstimateLabel
+  priority?: PriorityLabel
+}
+
+function isEstimate(v: unknown): v is EstimateLabel {
+  return typeof v === 'string' && (ESTIMATE_LABELS as readonly string[]).includes(v)
+}
+function isPriority(v: unknown): v is PriorityLabel {
+  return typeof v === 'string' && (PRIORITY_LABELS as readonly string[]).includes(v)
+}
+
+/**
+ * Build the concrete, non-noop proposals for a `propose_change` request against
+ * an issue's current labels. Invalid or unchanged axes are dropped — the agent
+ * proposes only real changes, and never a label outside the est/* · p/* axes.
+ */
+export function proposalsFor(
+  args: ProposeChangeArgs,
+  currentLabels: string[],
+  issueTitle?: string,
+): ChangeProposal[] {
+  const out: ChangeProposal[] = []
+  if (isEstimate(args.estimate)) {
+    const change: IssueChange = { kind: 'reestimate', issue: args.issue, estimate: args.estimate }
+    const plan = planIssueChange(currentLabels, change)
+    if (!plan.noop) out.push({ change, plan, issueTitle })
+  }
+  if (isPriority(args.priority)) {
+    const change: IssueChange = { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: args.issue, priority: args.priority }
+    const plan = planIssueChange(currentLabels, change)
+    if (!plan.noop) out.push({ change, plan, issueTitle })
+  }
+  return out
+}

packages/core/src/directives/record-directive-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import {
+  appendDirective,
+  makeDirectiveEntry,
+  parseDirectiveLog,
+  serializeDirective,
+  toDirectiveInput,
+} from './record-directive-v0.js'
+
+describe('toDirectiveInput', () => {
+  it('keeps a valid kind + target and drops an empty target', () => {
+    const input = toDirectiveInput({ kind: 'reprioritize', quote: 'pilots first', target: { issue: 87 }, rationale: 'blocked' })
+    expect(input).toEqual({ kind: 'reprioritize', quote: 'pilots first', target: { issue: 87 }, params: undefined, rationale: 'blocked' })
+    expect(toDirectiveInput({ kind: 'note', quote: 'x', target: {} }).target).toBeUndefined()
+  })
+
+  it('falls back to note for an unknown kind', () => {
+    expect(toDirectiveInput({ kind: 'nonsense', quote: 'hmm' }).kind).toBe('note')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('serialize + parse round-trip', () => {
+  const entry = makeDirectiveEntry(
+    { kind: 'reprioritize', quote: 'pilots come first', target: { issue: 87 } },
+    'id-1',
+    '2026-02-01T09:00:00Z',
+  )
+
+  it('serializes to one JSON line', () => {
+    const line = serializeDirective(entry)
+    expect(line).not.toContain('\n')
+    expect(JSON.parse(line)).toMatchObject({ id: 'id-1', kind: 'reprioritize', status: 'accepted' })
+  })
+
+  it('parses a log, orders by ts, and assigns a 1-based seq', () => {
+    const a = serializeDirective(makeDirectiveEntry({ kind: 'note', quote: 'later' }, 'b', '2026-02-02T00:00:00Z'))
+    const b = serializeDirective(makeDirectiveEntry({ kind: 'note', quote: 'earlier' }, 'a', '2026-02-01T00:00:00Z'))
+    const records = parseDirectiveLog(`${a}\n${b}\n`)
+    expect(records.map((r) => r.quote)).toEqual(['earlier', 'later'])
+    expect(records.map((r) => r.seq)).toEqual([1, 2])
+  })
+
+  it('skips blank and corrupt lines without losing the rest', () => {
+    const good = serializeDirective(entry)
+    const records = parseDirectiveLog(`\n{not json\n${good}\n\n`)
+    expect(records).toHaveLength(1)
+    expect(records[0].id).toBe('id-1')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('appendDirective', () => {
+  it('concatenates a newline-terminated entry, normalizing a missing trailing newline', () => {
+    const e1 = makeDirectiveEntry({ kind: 'note', quote: 'one' }, 'i1', '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z')
+    const e2 = makeDirectiveEntry({ kind: 'note', quote: 'two' }, 'i2', '2026-01-02T00:00:00Z')
+    let log = appendDirective('', e1)
+    log = appendDirective(log, e2)
+    expect(parseDirectiveLog(log).map((r) => r.quote)).toEqual(['one', 'two'])
+    expect(log.endsWith('\n')).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('handles existing text without a trailing newline', () => {
+    const e = makeDirectiveEntry({ kind: 'note', quote: 'x' }, 'i', '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z')
+    expect(appendDirective('{"id":"prev","ts":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"}', e).split('\n').filter(Boolean)).toHaveLength(2)
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/directives/record-directive-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+/**
+ * record_directive — the PM's standing instructions ("pilots come first"),
+ * appended to an append-only JSONL ledger in the pm-state repo (decisions.md D4,
+ * pm-state.md). A directive is *intent*: it's logged verbatim; its effects land
+ * later through apply_changes. Merge is concatenation — order derives from `ts`
+ * at read time, so two writers never conflict. `seq` is a display ordinal
+ * computed on read, never stored. This module is pure serialize/parse; the
+ * append (read → concat → write) is the bridge's job.
+ */
+
+export type DirectiveKind = 'reprioritize' | 'reestimate' | 'set-deadline' | 'scope' | 'capacity' | 'note'
+
+export type DirectiveStatus = 'proposed' | 'accepted' | 'amended' | 'withdrawn'
+
+export interface DirectiveTarget {
+  issue?: number
+  milestone?: number
+  member?: string
+}
+
+/** What the record_directive tool captures. */
+export interface DirectiveInput {
+  kind: DirectiveKind
+  /** Verbatim PM words, shown in the ledger. */
+  quote: string
+  target?: DirectiveTarget
+  /** Structured effect the scheduler applies, e.g. { priority: 1 }. */
+  params?: Record<string, unknown>
+  rationale?: string
+}
+
+/** A ledger entry — an input plus its durable id/ts/status. */
+export interface DirectiveEntry extends DirectiveInput {
+  id: string
+  ts: string
+  status: DirectiveStatus
+}
+
+/** A ledger entry as read back, with a computed display ordinal. */
+export interface DirectiveRecord extends DirectiveEntry {
+  seq: number
+}
+
+const DIRECTIVE_KINDS: readonly DirectiveKind[] = [
+  'reprioritize',
+  'reestimate',
+  'set-deadline',
+  'scope',
+  'capacity',
+  'note',
+]
+
+/** Normalize a raw tool payload into a DirectiveInput (unknown kind → note). */
+export function toDirectiveInput(raw: unknown): DirectiveInput {
+  const r = (raw ?? {}) as Record<string, unknown>
+  const kind = DIRECTIVE_KINDS.includes(r.kind as DirectiveKind) ? (r.kind as DirectiveKind) : 'note'
+  const target = (r.target ?? undefined) as DirectiveTarget | undefined
+  return {
+    kind,
+    quote: typeof r.quote === 'string' ? r.quote : '',
+    target: target && (target.issue || target.milestone || target.member) ? target : undefined,
+    params: (r.params && typeof r.params === 'object' ? (r.params as Record<string, unknown>) : undefined),
+    rationale: typeof r.rationale === 'string' ? r.rationale : undefined,
+  }
+}
+
+/** Build a full entry from an input + externally-supplied id/ts (Date/uuid live in the caller). */
+export function makeDirectiveEntry(
+  input: DirectiveInput,
+  id: string,
+  ts: string,
+  status: DirectiveStatus = 'accepted',
+): DirectiveEntry {
+  return { ...input, id, ts, status }
+}
+
+/** One JSONL line (no trailing newline — the caller joins). */
+export function serializeDirective(entry: DirectiveEntry): string {
+  return JSON.stringify(entry)
+}
+
+/**
+ * Parse a JSONL log into records ordered by `ts` (then id for stability), with a
+ * 1-based `seq` assigned on read. Blank/corrupt lines are skipped, not fatal.
+ */
+export function parseDirectiveLog(text: string): DirectiveRecord[] {
+  const entries: DirectiveEntry[] = []
+  for (const line of text.split('\n')) {
+    const trimmed = line.trim()
+    if (!trimmed) continue
+    try {
+      const e = JSON.parse(trimmed) as DirectiveEntry
+      if (e && typeof e.id === 'string' && typeof e.ts === 'string') entries.push(e)
+    } catch {
+      // skip a corrupt line rather than lose the whole ledger
+    }
+  }
+  entries.sort((a, b) => (a.ts === b.ts ? a.id.localeCompare(b.id) : a.ts.localeCompare(b.ts)))
+  return entries.map((e, i) => ({ ...e, seq: i + 1 }))
+}
+
+/** Append a serialized entry to existing log text (concatenation merge). */
+export function appendDirective(existing: string, entry: DirectiveEntry): string {
+  const base = existing.endsWith('\n') || existing === '' ? existing : existing + '\n'
+  return `${base}${serializeDirective(entry)}\n`
+}

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import { type DependencyEdge, type SchedulableIssue } from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+import { COLD_START_PRIORS, forecast, priorForEstimate } from './forecast-v0.js'
+
+function issue(number: number, over: Partial<SchedulableIssue> = {}): SchedulableIssue {
+  return { number, title: `#${number}`, labels: [], estimateDays: 2, priority: 2, ...over }
+}
+
+describe('priorForEstimate', () => {
+  it('returns the exact prior for a bucket day count', () => {
+    expect(priorForEstimate(3)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[3])
+    expect(priorForEstimate(8)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[8])
+  })
+
+  it('snaps a non-bucket estimate to the nearest bucket', () => {
+    expect(priorForEstimate(4)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[3]) // tie → smaller bucket
+    expect(priorForEstimate(6)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[5])
+    expect(priorForEstimate(100)).toBe(COLD_START_PRIORS[8])
+  })
+
+  it('every prior is pessimistic (median actual runs longer than the estimate)', () => {
+    for (const p of Object.values(COLD_START_PRIORS)) expect(p.mu).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('forecast', () => {
+  const scope = [
+    issue(1, { estimateDays: 2 }),
+    issue(2, { estimateDays: 3 }),
+    issue(3, { estimateDays: 1 }),
+  ]
+
+  it('is reproducible: same seed → identical result', () => {
+    const a = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 500, seed: 42 })
+    const b = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 500, seed: 42 })
+    expect(a).toEqual(b)
+  })
+
+  it('percentiles are ordered p50 <= p80 <= p95', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(f.p80Day)
+    expect(f.p80Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(f.p95Day)
+  })
+
+  it('the burn-up curve is monotonic in both fraction and day', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    expect(f.curve).toHaveLength(3)
+    for (let i = 1; i < f.curve.length; i++) {
+      expect(f.curve[i].fraction).toBeGreaterThan(f.curve[i - 1].fraction)
+      expect(f.curve[i].p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(f.curve[i - 1].p50Day)
+    }
+    expect(f.curve.at(-1)!.fraction).toBeCloseTo(1)
+  })
+
+  it('lo/mid/hi are ordered within each cone point', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 3000 })
+    for (const pt of f.curve) {
+      expect(pt.p10Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(pt.p50Day)
+      expect(pt.p50Day).toBeLessThanOrEqual(pt.p90Day)
+    }
+  })
+
+  it('the median landing runs longer than the raw estimate sum (pessimism)', () => {
+    const rawSum = 2 + 3 + 1
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 4000 })
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(rawSum)
+  })
+
+  it('reports scope and cold-start honestly', () => {
+    const f = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(3)
+    expect(f.coldStart).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('a dependency cycle yields an empty, zeroed forecast', () => {
+    const edges: DependencyEdge[] = [
+      { issue: 1, dependsOn: 2 },
+      { issue: 2, dependsOn: 1 },
+    ]
+    const f = forecast([issue(1), issue(2)], edges, { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(0)
+    expect(f.curve).toEqual([])
+    expect(f.p80Day).toBe(0)
+  })
+
+  it('an empty scope forecasts nothing', () => {
+    const f = forecast([], [], { trials: 100 })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(0)
+    expect(f.curve).toEqual([])
+  })
+
+  it('unestimated issues fall back to the default-estimate prior', () => {
+    const f = forecast([issue(1, { estimateDays: null }), issue(2, { estimateDays: null })], [], {
+      trials: 500,
+    })
+    expect(f.scope).toBe(2)
+    expect(f.p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+  })
+
+  it('a cold-start model changes nothing — the code priors still drive it', () => {
+    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 1000, seed: 7 })
+    const cold = forecast(scope, [], {
+      trials: 1000,
+      seed: 7,
+      model: { coldStart: true, global: { mu: 5, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
+    })
+    expect(cold.coldStart).toBe(true)
+    expect(cold.p50Day).toBeCloseTo(priors.p50Day, 6)
+  })
+
+  it('a fitted model drives the sim once past cold-start', () => {
+    // an optimistic fit (mu < 0, tight sigma) should land the scope sooner than the pessimistic priors
+    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 2000, seed: 7 })
+    const fitted = forecast(scope, [], {
+      trials: 2000,
+      seed: 7,
+      model: { coldStart: false, global: { mu: -0.2, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
+    })
+    expect(fitted.coldStart).toBe(false)
+    expect(fitted.p50Day).toBeLessThan(priors.p50Day)
+  })
+
+  it('capacity lanes parallelize the sim — the makespan shrinks with more workers', () => {
+    const independent = [issue(1), issue(2), issue(3), issue(4)] // no deps → fully parallelizable
+    const serial = forecast(independent, [], { trials: 2000, seed: 7 })
+    const twoLanes = forecast(independent, [], {
+      trials: 2000,
+      seed: 7,
+      workers: [
+        { person: 'a', speed: 1 },
+        { person: 'b', speed: 1 },
+      ],
+    })
+    // two equal lanes ≈ half the serial landing (independent work)
+    expect(twoLanes.p80Day).toBeLessThan(serial.p80Day)
+    expect(twoLanes.p80Day).toBeLessThan(serial.p80Day * 0.7)
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,217 @@
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo forecast, v0. The LLM never does this — it's plain, seeded,
+ * reproducible code (evidence-based scheduling). It samples an actual duration
+ * per open issue from a lognormal prior, walks the scheduler's deterministic
+ * order on a single serial worker, and reads percentiles off the resulting
+ * completion-day distribution.
+ *
+ * v0 simplifications (each a later slice, not a hack):
+ *  - single serial worker; per-person capacity + parallelism is #8.
+ *  - cold-start priors only; the team's empirical calibration fit lands at
+ *    n >= 20 closed-with-estimate issues (#5 supplies the actuals).
+ *  - forecast covers remaining (open) scope from today forward; the historical
+ *    burn-up "actual" polyline needs lifecycle event dates (#5).
+ */
+
+import {
+  type DependencyEdge,
+  schedule,
+  type SchedulableIssue,
+} from '../scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+import { type LaneInputs, layoutOnLanes, resolveLanes, type Worker } from '../scheduler/scheduler-capacity-v0.js'
+
+export interface LognormalPrior {
+  /** Median log-ratio: sampled median duration = estimate * e^mu. */
+  mu: number
+  /** Spread of log(actual / estimate). */
+  sigma: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Code-resident cold-start priors (D3). Lognormal on log(actual / estimate):
+ * sampled actual = estimateDays * exp(N(mu, sigma)). mu > 0 encodes the honest
+ * fact that actuals run long; sigma shrinks as tickets grow (a snag doubles a
+ * 1-day task but barely dents an 8-day one). The team's fitted model replaces
+ * these at n >= 20 (see calibration model in pm-state.md).
+ */
+export const COLD_START_PRIORS: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {
+  1: { mu: 0.25, sigma: 0.55 },
+  2: { mu: 0.22, sigma: 0.48 },
+  3: { mu: 0.2, sigma: 0.44 },
+  5: { mu: 0.18, sigma: 0.4 },
+  8: { mu: 0.16, sigma: 0.36 },
+}
+
+export const PRIOR_BUCKETS = [1, 2, 3, 5, 8]
+
+/** Nearest estimate bucket (ties resolve to the smaller bucket). */
+export function nearestBucket(days: number): number {
+  let best = PRIOR_BUCKETS[0]
+  for (const b of PRIOR_BUCKETS) {
+    if (Math.abs(b - days) < Math.abs(best - days)) best = b
+  }
+  return best
+}
+
+/** The cold-start prior for the bucket nearest to `days`. */
+export function priorForEstimate(days: number): LognormalPrior {
+  return COLD_START_PRIORS[nearestBucket(days)]
+}
+
+/** The lognormal parameters `forecast` needs, per estimate bucket. */
+export interface DurationModel {
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Fallback params (used when a bucket lacks its own fit). */
+  global: LognormalPrior
+  /** Per-bucket fitted params; missing buckets fall back to `global`. */
+  byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior>
+}
+
+export interface ForecastOptions {
+  /** Simulation trials. More = smoother tails, linear cost. */
+  trials?: number
+  /** PRNG seed. Fixed by default so a forecast is reproducible. */
+  seed?: number
+  /**
+   * Fitted duration model. When present and not cold-start, its params drive
+   * the sim; otherwise the code-resident cold-start priors do.
+   */
+  model?: DurationModel
+  /**
+   * Capacity lanes. When provided, each trial lays sampled durations across the
+   * lanes (parallel) instead of a single serial worker — the makespan shrinks
+   * toward the critical path. Empty/absent → single serial worker.
+   */
+  workers?: Worker[]
+}
+
+/** Resolve the lognormal params for an estimate, preferring a fitted model. */
+export function durationParams(days: number, model?: DurationModel): LognormalPrior {
+  if (model && !model.coldStart) {
+    return model.byBucket[nearestBucket(days)] ?? model.global
+  }
+  return priorForEstimate(days)
+}
+
+export interface BurnUpPoint {
+  /** Cumulative fraction of remaining scope complete (0 < f <= 1]. */
+  fraction: number
+  /** Working-day offset from today at the p10 / p50 / p90 of reaching it. */
+  p10Day: number
+  p50Day: number
+  p90Day: number
+}
+
+export interface Forecast {
+  /** Open issues in scope (== scheduled count). */
+  scope: number
+  trials: number
+  /** true while code priors drive the sim; false once the empirical fit is in (v1). */
+  coldStart: boolean
+  /** Working-day offsets from today for the whole scope landing. */
+  p50Day: number
+  p80Day: number
+  p95Day: number
+  /** Burn-up cone, one point per scheduled issue, fraction ascending. */
+  curve: BurnUpPoint[]
+}
+
+const DEFAULT_TRIALS = 2000
+const DEFAULT_SEED = 0x9e3779b9
+
+/** mulberry32 — small, fast, seedable PRNG (no reliance on Math.random). */
+function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {
+  let a = seed >>> 0
+  return () => {
+    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0
+    let t = Math.imul(a ^ (a >>> 15), 1 | a)
+    t = (t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), 61 | t)) ^ t
+    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296
+  }
+}
+
+/** Box–Muller standard normal from a uniform PRNG. */
+function standardNormal(rng: () => number): number {
+  let u1 = rng()
+  const u2 = rng()
+  if (u1 < 1e-12) u1 = 1e-12
+  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2)
+}
+
+function percentile(sortedAsc: number[], q: number): number {
+  const idx = Math.min(sortedAsc.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.round(q * (sortedAsc.length - 1))))
+  return sortedAsc[idx]
+}
+
+/**
+ * Monte Carlo over the deterministic schedule order. Order is fixed (it's
+ * derived from estimate labels + dependencies, not sampled), so only durations
+ * vary across trials — the cone stretches, it never reorders.
+ */
+export function forecast(
+  issues: SchedulableIssue[],
+  edges: DependencyEdge[],
+  options: ForecastOptions = {},
+): Forecast {
+  const trials = options.trials ?? DEFAULT_TRIALS
+  const seed = options.seed ?? DEFAULT_SEED
+  const coldStart = options.model ? options.model.coldStart : true
+  const order = schedule(issues, edges).items // empty when a dependency cycle exists
+  const n = order.length
+  if (n === 0) {
+    return { scope: 0, trials, coldStart, p50Day: 0, p80Day: 0, p95Day: 0, curve: [] }
+  }
+
+  const priors = order.map((it) => durationParams(it.durationDays, options.model))
+  const rng = mulberry32(seed)
+
+  // Capacity lanes, when configured — the per-trial layout goes parallel.
+  const laneInputs: LaneInputs = {
+    order: order.map((it) => it.number),
+    blockedBy: new Map(order.map((it) => [it.number, it.blockedBy])),
+    assignee: new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, i.assignee ?? null])),
+  }
+  const lanes =
+    options.workers && options.workers.length ? resolveLanes(options.workers, [...laneInputs.assignee.values()]) : null
+
+  // endByRank[k][t] = working day the (k+1)-th issue *to finish* completes on trial t.
+  const endByRank: number[][] = Array.from({ length: n }, () => new Array<number>(trials))
+  for (let t = 0; t < trials; t++) {
+    const sampled = order.map((it, k) => it.durationDays * Math.exp(priors[k].mu + priors[k].sigma * standardNormal(rng)))
+    if (lanes) {
+      // parallel: lay the sampled durations across lanes, then sort finish days
+      const byNumber = new Map(order.map((it, k) => [it.number, sampled[k]]))
+      const { finishAt } = layoutOnLanes(laneInputs, lanes, (num) => byNumber.get(num)!)
+      const finishes = order.map((it) => finishAt.get(it.number)!).sort((a, b) => a - b)
+      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) endByRank[k][t] = finishes[k]
+    } else {
+      // single serial worker: cumulative sum (already sorted ascending)
+      let cursor = 0
+      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
+        cursor += sampled[k]
+        endByRank[k][t] = cursor
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  const curve: BurnUpPoint[] = endByRank.map((row, k) => {
+    const sorted = [...row].sort((a, b) => a - b)
+    return {
+      fraction: (k + 1) / n,
+      p10Day: percentile(sorted, 0.1),
+      p50Day: percentile(sorted, 0.5),
+      p90Day: percentile(sorted, 0.9),
+    }
+  })
+
+  const total = [...endByRank[n - 1]].sort((a, b) => a - b)
+  return {
+    scope: n,
+    trials,
+    coldStart,
+    p50Day: percentile(total, 0.5),
+    p80Day: percentile(total, 0.8),
+    p95Day: percentile(total, 0.95),
+    curve,
+  }
+}

packages/core/src/gitea/client.test.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
 
-import { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue } from './client.js'
+import { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue, normalizeTimeline } from './client.js'
 import { GiteaApiError, type FetchLike, type GiteaConfig, type GiteaRequestInit } from './types.js'
 
 const CONFIG: GiteaConfig = {
@@ -44,6 +44,31 @@ function stubFetch(body: unknown, status = 200): {
   return { fetch, calls }
 }
 
+describe('normalizeTimeline', () => {
+  it('maps known gitea event types to lifecycle signals and drops the rest', () => {
+    const events = normalizeTimeline([
+      { type: 'label', created_at: '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'milestone', created_at: '2026-01-06T09:05:00Z' },
+      { type: 'commit_ref', created_at: '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'pull_ref', created_at: '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'comment', created_at: '2026-01-08T13:00:00Z' }, // dropped
+      { type: 'add_dependency', created_at: '2026-01-08T14:00:00Z' }, // dropped
+      { type: 'close', created_at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+    ])
+    expect(events).toEqual([
+      { type: 'triage', at: '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'triage', at: '2026-01-06T09:05:00Z' },
+      { type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'pull', at: '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z' },
+      { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+    ])
+  })
+
+  it('skips events missing a timestamp', () => {
+    expect(normalizeTimeline([{ type: 'commit_ref', created_at: '' }])).toEqual([])
+  })
+})
+
 describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
   it('returns a normalized, typed issue from canned JSON', async () => {
     const { fetch } = stubFetch(RAW_ISSUE)
@@ -98,6 +123,63 @@ describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
     )
   })
 
+  it('setIssueLabels PUTs the label ids to the issue labels endpoint', async () => {
+    const { fetch, calls } = stubFetch(null, 204)
+    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).setIssueLabels(9, [3, 7])
+
+    expect(calls).toHaveLength(1)
+    expect(calls[0].url).toBe('https://gitea.stephenmann.io/api/v1/repos/christian/commitea/issues/9/labels')
+    expect(calls[0].init?.method).toBe('PUT')
+    expect(calls[0].init?.headers?.['Content-Type']).toBe('application/json')
+    expect(JSON.parse(calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ labels: [3, 7] })
+  })
+
+  it('listLabels returns id+name pairs', async () => {
+    const { fetch } = stubFetch([
+      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d', color: 'fff' },
+      { id: 7, name: 'p/1', color: '000' },
+    ])
+    const labels = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listLabels()
+    expect(labels).toEqual([
+      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d' },
+      { id: 7, name: 'p/1' },
+    ])
+  })
+
+  it('getFile returns null on 404 and content+sha on hit', async () => {
+    const miss = stubFetch('nope', 404)
+    expect(await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, miss.fetch).getFile('directives/log.jsonl')).toBeNull()
+
+    const hit = stubFetch({ content: 'aGVsbG8=\n', sha: 'abc123' })
+    const file = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, hit.fetch).getFile('directives/log.jsonl')
+    expect(file).toEqual({ contentBase64: 'aGVsbG8=', sha: 'abc123' })
+    expect(hit.calls[0].url).toContain('/contents/directives/log.jsonl')
+  })
+
+  it('putFile POSTs to create and PUTs to update (with sha)', async () => {
+    const create = stubFetch({}, 201)
+    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, create.fetch).putFile('directives/log.jsonl', { contentBase64: 'eA==', message: 'seed' })
+    expect(create.calls[0].init?.method).toBe('POST')
+    expect(JSON.parse(create.calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ content: 'eA==', message: 'seed' })
+
+    const update = stubFetch({}, 200)
+    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, update.fetch).putFile('directives/log.jsonl', { contentBase64: 'eQ==', message: 'append', sha: 's1' })
+    expect(update.calls[0].init?.method).toBe('PUT')
+    expect(JSON.parse(update.calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ content: 'eQ==', message: 'append', sha: 's1' })
+  })
+
+  it('createIssue POSTs title/body/labels and returns a normalized issue', async () => {
+    const created = { ...RAW_ISSUE, number: 44, title: 'Retry token refresh', labels: [{ name: 'est/2d' }, { name: 'p/2' }] }
+    const { fetch, calls } = stubFetch(created, 201)
+    const issue = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).createIssue({ title: 'Retry token refresh', body: 'backoff', labelIds: [3, 7] })
+
+    expect(calls[0].url).toBe('https://gitea.stephenmann.io/api/v1/repos/christian/commitea/issues')
+    expect(calls[0].init?.method).toBe('POST')
+    expect(JSON.parse(calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ title: 'Retry token refresh', body: 'backoff', labels: [3, 7] })
+    expect(issue.number).toBe(44)
+    expect(issue.labels).toEqual(['est/2d', 'p/2'])
+  })
+
   it('throws GiteaApiError carrying status + body on a non-2xx response', async () => {
     const { fetch } = stubFetch('not found', 404)
     const client = createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch)

packages/core/src/gitea/client.ts

@@ -6,12 +6,14 @@
  * get the full set.
  */
 
+import { type LifecycleEvent, type LifecycleEventType } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
 import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
 import {
   GiteaApiError,
   type FetchLike,
   type GiteaConfig,
   type GiteaIssue,
+  type GiteaLabel,
   type GiteaMilestone,
   type GiteaMilestoneRef,
 } from './types.js'
@@ -54,6 +56,33 @@ interface RawMilestoneFull {
   closed_issues: number
 }
 
+/** The subset of a gitea timeline comment we read. */
+interface RawTimelineComment {
+  type: string
+  created_at: string
+}
+
+/** gitea timeline `type` → our lifecycle signal. Unmapped types are dropped. */
+const TIMELINE_TYPE_MAP: Record<string, LifecycleEventType> = {
+  label: 'triage',
+  milestone: 'triage',
+  assignees: 'triage',
+  commit_ref: 'commit',
+  pull_ref: 'pull',
+  close: 'close',
+  reopen: 'reopen',
+}
+
+/** Map a raw gitea timeline to normalized lifecycle events. Pure. */
+export function normalizeTimeline(raw: RawTimelineComment[]): LifecycleEvent[] {
+  const out: LifecycleEvent[] = []
+  for (const c of raw) {
+    const type = TIMELINE_TYPE_MAP[c.type]
+    if (type && c.created_at) out.push({ type, at: c.created_at })
+  }
+  return out
+}
+
 export interface ListIssuesOptions {
   /** @default 'all' */
   state?: 'open' | 'closed' | 'all'
@@ -68,6 +97,18 @@ export interface GiteaClient {
   listMilestones(): Promise<GiteaMilestone[]>
   /** The issue indices this issue depends on (its blockers). */
   getIssueDependencies(index: number): Promise<number[]>
+  /** Normalized lifecycle events for one issue (all pages of its timeline). */
+  getIssueTimeline(index: number): Promise<LifecycleEvent[]>
+  /** Every label defined on the repo (id + name), for name→id resolution. */
+  listLabels(): Promise<GiteaLabel[]>
+  /** Replace an issue's entire label set with the given label ids. Write. */
+  setIssueLabels(index: number, labelIds: number[]): Promise<void>
+  /** Open a new issue with a title, optional body, and label ids. Write. */
+  createIssue(input: { title: string; body?: string; labelIds?: number[] }): Promise<GiteaIssue>
+  /** Read a repo file's base64 content + blob sha; null if it (or the repo) is absent. */
+  getFile(path: string): Promise<{ contentBase64: string; sha: string } | null>
+  /** Create or update a repo file with base64 content (pass `sha` to update). Write. */
+  putFile(path: string, input: { contentBase64: string; message: string; sha?: string }): Promise<void>
 }
 
 /** Map raw gitea issue JSON to the normalized domain shape. Pure. */
@@ -114,18 +155,24 @@ export function createGiteaClient(config: GiteaConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): Gi
   const apiBase = `${config.baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/api/v1`
   const repoBase = `${apiBase}/repos/${config.owner}/${config.repo}`
 
-  async function request(path: string): Promise<unknown> {
+  async function request(path: string, init?: { method?: string; body?: unknown }): Promise<unknown> {
+    const method = init?.method ?? 'GET'
+    const hasBody = init?.body !== undefined
     const res = await fetchImpl(`${repoBase}${path}`, {
+      method,
       headers: {
         Authorization: `token ${config.token}`,
         Accept: 'application/json',
+        ...(hasBody ? { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' } : {}),
       },
+      body: hasBody ? JSON.stringify(init!.body) : undefined,
     })
     if (!res.ok) {
       const body = await res.text().catch(() => '')
-      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `GET ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
+      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `${method} ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
     }
-    return res.json()
+    // writes may reply 204 No Content
+    return res.status === 204 ? null : res.json()
   }
 
   /** Follow gitea's page-limit pagination until a short page is returned. */
@@ -163,5 +210,51 @@ export function createGiteaClient(config: GiteaConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): Gi
       const raw = (await request(`/issues/${index}/dependencies`)) as { number: number }[]
       return raw.map((d) => d.number)
     },
+
+    async getIssueTimeline(index) {
+      const raw = await requestAll<RawTimelineComment>(
+        (page) => `/issues/${index}/timeline?page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      return normalizeTimeline(raw)
+    },
+
+    async listLabels() {
+      const raw = await requestAll<{ id: number; name: string }>(
+        (page) => `/labels?page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
+      )
+      return raw.map((l) => ({ id: l.id, name: l.name }))
+    },
+
+    async setIssueLabels(index, labelIds) {
+      await request(`/issues/${index}/labels`, { method: 'PUT', body: { labels: labelIds } })
+    },
+
+    async createIssue(input) {
+      const raw = (await request('/issues', {
+        method: 'POST',
+        body: { title: input.title, body: input.body ?? '', labels: input.labelIds ?? [] },
+      })) as RawIssue
+      return normalizeIssue(raw)
+    },
+
+    async getFile(path) {
+      const res = await fetchImpl(`${repoBase}/contents/${path}`, {
+        headers: { Authorization: `token ${config.token}`, Accept: 'application/json' },
+      })
+      if (res.status === 404) return null
+      if (!res.ok) {
+        const body = await res.text().catch(() => '')
+        throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `GET contents/${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
+      }
+      const json = (await res.json()) as { content?: string; sha: string }
+      return { contentBase64: (json.content ?? '').replace(/\n/g, ''), sha: json.sha }
+    },
+
+    async putFile(path, input) {
+      await request(`/contents/${path}`, {
+        method: input.sha ? 'PUT' : 'POST',
+        body: { content: input.contentBase64, message: input.message, ...(input.sha ? { sha: input.sha } : {}) },
+      })
+    },
   }
 }

packages/core/src/gitea/types.ts

@@ -31,10 +31,18 @@ export interface GiteaHttpResponse {
   status: number
   json(): Promise<unknown>
   text(): Promise<string>
+  /** Present on the real fetch Response; used for SSE streaming (chat). */
+  body?: ReadableStream<Uint8Array> | null
 }
 
 export type FetchLike = (url: string, init?: GiteaRequestInit) => Promise<GiteaHttpResponse>
 
+/** A repo label — just the id + name we need for name→id resolution. */
+export interface GiteaLabel {
+  id: number
+  name: string
+}
+
 /** Milestone as referenced from an issue (not the full milestone resource). */
 export interface GiteaMilestoneRef {
   id: number

packages/core/src/index.ts

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ export {
 } from './labels/label-schema.js'
 export type { EstimateLabel, LabelFacts, PriorityLabel } from './labels/label-schema.js'
 
-export { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue, normalizeMilestone } from './gitea/client.js'
+export { createGiteaClient, normalizeIssue, normalizeMilestone, normalizeTimeline } from './gitea/client.js'
 export type { GiteaClient, ListIssuesOptions } from './gitea/client.js'
 export { GiteaApiError } from './gitea/types.js'
 export type {
@@ -17,13 +17,28 @@ export type {
   GiteaConfig,
   GiteaHttpResponse,
   GiteaIssue,
+  GiteaLabel,
   GiteaMilestone,
   GiteaMilestoneRef,
   GiteaRequestInit,
 } from './gitea/types.js'
 
-export { inferColumnV0, LIFECYCLE_COLUMNS } from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
-export type { LifecycleColumn } from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+export { describeChange, planIssueChange, proposalsFor } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
+export type { ChangeProposal, IssueChange, LabelPlan, ProposeChangeArgs } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  inferColumnV0,
+  inferLifecycle,
+  LIFECYCLE_COLUMNS,
+  workingDaysBetween,
+} from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
+export type {
+  LifecycleColumn,
+  LifecycleEvent,
+  LifecycleEventType,
+  LifecycleInference,
+  LifecycleStages,
+} from './lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
 
 export { DEFAULT_ESTIMATE_DAYS, schedule, selectFocus } from './scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
 export type {
@@ -33,3 +48,73 @@ export type {
   ScheduledItem,
   SchedulePlan,
 } from './scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
+
+export { makespan, scheduleWithCapacity } from './scheduler/scheduler-capacity-v0.js'
+export type { Worker } from './scheduler/scheduler-capacity-v0.js'
+
+export { capacityPerWorkday, parseCapacityConfig } from './capacity/capacity-v0.js'
+export type { CapacityMember } from './capacity/capacity-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  COLD_START_PRIORS,
+  durationParams,
+  forecast,
+  nearestBucket,
+  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
+  priorForEstimate,
+} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+export type {
+  BurnUpPoint,
+  DurationModel,
+  Forecast,
+  ForecastOptions,
+  LognormalPrior,
+} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+
+export {
+  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationSamples,
+  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
+  fitCalibration,
+  toDurationModel,
+} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
+export type {
+  BucketFit,
+  CalibrationModel,
+  CalibrationSample,
+  PersonBias,
+} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
+
+export { createChatClient } from './agent/chat-client.js'
+export type { ChatClient, ChatMessage, CompletionResult, ModelConfig, OnToken, ToolCall, ToolDecl } from './agent/chat-client.js'
+export { pickModel } from './agent/model-router.js'
+export type { ModelRouter, TaskKind } from './agent/model-router.js'
+export { runAgentTurn } from './agent/agent-loop.js'
+export type { AgentStep, AgentTurn, ToolExecutor } from './agent/agent-loop.js'
+export {
+  PROPOSE_CHANGE_TOOL,
+  QUERY_PROJECT_TOOL,
+  RECORD_DIRECTIVE_TOOL,
+  REGINALD_SYSTEM,
+  REGINALD_TOOLS,
+} from './agent/agent-tools.js'
+export { buildProjectView } from './agent/query-project.js'
+export type { ProjectSnapshot, ProjectView, QueryFilters } from './agent/query-project.js'
+export { CAPTURE_SYSTEM, captureWork, parseCaptureArgs, PROPOSE_ISSUES_TOOL } from './agent/capture-work.js'
+export type { CaptureProposal, ProposedIssue } from './agent/capture-work.js'
+
+export {
+  appendDirective,
+  makeDirectiveEntry,
+  parseDirectiveLog,
+  serializeDirective,
+  toDirectiveInput,
+} from './directives/record-directive-v0.js'
+export type {
+  DirectiveEntry,
+  DirectiveInput,
+  DirectiveKind,
+  DirectiveRecord,
+  DirectiveStatus,
+  DirectiveTarget,
+} from './directives/record-directive-v0.js'

packages/core/src/lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.test.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,11 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
 
-import { inferColumnV0 } from './lifecycle-v0.js'
+import {
+  inferColumnV0,
+  inferLifecycle,
+  type LifecycleEvent,
+  workingDaysBetween,
+} from './lifecycle-v0.js'
 
 const base = { state: 'open' as const, labels: [] as string[], milestone: null }
 
@@ -27,3 +32,93 @@ describe('inferColumnV0', () => {
     expect(['steeping', 'review']).not.toContain(col)
   })
 })
+
+describe('workingDaysBetween', () => {
+  it('counts weekdays in [start, end), excluding weekends', () => {
+    // Mon 2026-01-05 → Mon 2026-01-12 spans a full week = 5 working days
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-05'), new Date('2026-01-12'))).toBe(5)
+  })
+
+  it('is 0 for same day or reversed', () => {
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-05'), new Date('2026-01-05'))).toBe(0)
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-12'), new Date('2026-01-05'))).toBe(0)
+  })
+
+  it('skips a weekend inside the interval', () => {
+    // Fri 2026-01-09 → Mon 2026-01-12: only Fri counts (Sat/Sun excluded) = 1
+    expect(workingDaysBetween(new Date('2026-01-09'), new Date('2026-01-12'))).toBe(1)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('inferLifecycle', () => {
+  const openBase = { ...base, createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z', closedAt: null }
+  const asOf = new Date('2026-01-14T09:00:00Z')
+
+  const ev = (type: LifecycleEvent['type'], at: string): LifecycleEvent => ({ type, at })
+
+  it('bare open issue with no events is diagnosis', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(openBase, [], asOf)
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('diagnosis')
+    expect(inf.stages.opened).toBe(openBase.createdAt)
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBeNull()
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('a triage event (or a current label) moves it to triage', () => {
+    expect(inferLifecycle(openBase, [ev('triage', '2026-01-06T09:00:00Z')], asOf).column).toBe('triage')
+    expect(inferLifecycle({ ...openBase, labels: ['p/1'] }, [], asOf).column).toBe('triage')
+  })
+
+  it('a commit ref moves an open issue to steeping and counts its working age', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, labels: ['est/2d'] },
+      [ev('triage', '2026-01-05T10:00:00Z'), ev('commit', '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('steeping')
+    expect(inf.stages.steeping).toBe('2026-01-07T12:00:00Z')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Wed 2026-01-14 = 5 working days
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBe(5)
+  })
+
+  it('a pull ref outranks a commit ref → review', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      openBase,
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-07T12:00:00Z'), ev('pull', '2026-01-08T12:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('review')
+    expect(inf.steepingDays).toBeNull() // only steeping issues carry an age
+  })
+
+  it('closed → done, with actual working time from work-start to close', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, state: 'closed', closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' },
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z'), ev('pull', '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z'), ev('close', '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.column).toBe('done')
+    expect(inf.stages.done).toBe('2026-01-12T09:00:00Z')
+    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Mon 2026-01-12 = Wed,Thu,Fri = 3 working days
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+
+  it('takes the earliest event of each kind for stage timestamps', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      openBase,
+      [ev('commit', '2026-01-09T09:00:00Z'), ev('commit', '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    expect(inf.stages.steeping).toBe('2026-01-07T09:00:00Z')
+  })
+
+  it('falls back to opened when a closed issue has no work-start signal', () => {
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(
+      { ...openBase, state: 'closed', closedAt: '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z' },
+      [ev('close', '2026-01-08T09:00:00Z')],
+      asOf,
+    )
+    // Mon 2026-01-05 → Thu 2026-01-08 = Mon,Tue,Wed = 3 working days
+    expect(inf.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
+  })
+})

packages/core/src/lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.ts

@@ -1,12 +1,10 @@
 /**
- * Lifecycle inference, v0 — the coarse column an issue sits in, derived from
- * *only* what a single issues-list read gives us (state, labels, milestone).
+ * Lifecycle inference.
  *
- * The real five-column inference (P1-5) needs the issue timeline: first
- * branch/commit ref → Steeping, PR opened → In review, PR merged → Deploy.
- * Until that lands, v0 can only place three columns honestly; `steeping` and
- * `review` stay empty rather than guess. Board renders all five columns and
- * fills the middle two once the event stream is available.
+ * `inferColumnV0` places the coarse three columns from a single issues-list
+ * read (state/labels/milestone). `inferLifecycle` (#5) adds the issue timeline:
+ * first commit ref → Steeping, first PR ref → In review, close → Done — and
+ * derives the estimate-vs-actual working time that feeds calibration (D3).
  */
 
 import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
@@ -23,10 +21,109 @@ export const LIFECYCLE_COLUMNS: readonly LifecycleColumn[] = [
 
 /**
  * Closed → done. Open with any human intent applied (a label or a milestone)
- * → triage. Open and bare → diagnosis. Never returns steeping/review in v0.
+ * → triage. Open and bare → diagnosis. Never returns steeping/review — that's
+ * `inferLifecycle`, which reads the event stream.
  */
 export function inferColumnV0(issue: Pick<GiteaIssue, 'state' | 'labels' | 'milestone'>): LifecycleColumn {
   if (issue.state === 'closed') return 'done'
   const hasIntent = issue.labels.length > 0 || issue.milestone !== null
   return hasIntent ? 'triage' : 'diagnosis'
 }
+
+/** A timeline signal, normalized from gitea's raw event stream. */
+export type LifecycleEventType = 'triage' | 'commit' | 'pull' | 'close' | 'reopen'
+
+export interface LifecycleEvent {
+  type: LifecycleEventType
+  /** ISO timestamp. */
+  at: string
+}
+
+/** Timestamps for the stages an issue has reached (absent = not yet reached). */
+export interface LifecycleStages {
+  opened: string
+  /** First label / milestone / assignment. */
+  triaged?: string
+  /** First commit referencing the issue — work began. */
+  steeping?: string
+  /** First PR referencing the issue — in review. */
+  review?: string
+  /** Closed. */
+  done?: string
+}
+
+export interface LifecycleInference {
+  column: LifecycleColumn
+  stages: LifecycleStages
+  /**
+   * Working days from work-start (steeping → triaged → opened, first available)
+   * to done. Only for closed issues — this is the "actual" calibration learns
+   * from. null while open.
+   */
+  actualWorkingDays: number | null
+  /** Working days the issue has been steeping (first commit → asOf); null unless currently steeping. */
+  steepingDays: number | null
+}
+
+const DAY_MS = 86_400_000
+
+/**
+ * Whole working days (Mon–Fri) in the half-open interval [start, end). Same day
+ * or reversed → 0. Day-granular by design — estimates are in days.
+ */
+export function workingDaysBetween(start: Date, end: Date): number {
+  const s = Date.UTC(start.getUTCFullYear(), start.getUTCMonth(), start.getUTCDate())
+  const e = Date.UTC(end.getUTCFullYear(), end.getUTCMonth(), end.getUTCDate())
+  if (e <= s) return 0
+  let count = 0
+  for (let t = s; t < e; t += DAY_MS) {
+    const dow = new Date(t).getUTCDay()
+    if (dow !== 0 && dow !== 6) count += 1
+  }
+  return count
+}
+
+/**
+ * The five-column inference. Column reflects the furthest stage still in play:
+ * closed → done; else an open PR ref → review; else a commit ref → steeping;
+ * else any triage signal (or a current label/milestone) → triage; else
+ * diagnosis. Stage timestamps are the earliest event of each kind.
+ */
+export function inferLifecycle(
+  issue: Pick<GiteaIssue, 'state' | 'labels' | 'milestone' | 'createdAt' | 'closedAt'>,
+  events: LifecycleEvent[],
+  asOf: Date,
+): LifecycleInference {
+  const sorted = [...events].sort((a, b) => a.at.localeCompare(b.at))
+  const firstOf = (type: LifecycleEventType) => sorted.find((e) => e.type === type)?.at
+
+  const stages: LifecycleStages = { opened: issue.createdAt }
+  const triagedAt = firstOf('triage')
+  const steepingAt = firstOf('commit')
+  const reviewAt = firstOf('pull')
+  if (triagedAt) stages.triaged = triagedAt
+  if (steepingAt) stages.steeping = steepingAt
+  if (reviewAt) stages.review = reviewAt
+  const doneAt = issue.state === 'closed' ? (issue.closedAt ?? firstOf('close')) : undefined
+  if (doneAt) stages.done = doneAt
+
+  let column: LifecycleColumn
+  if (issue.state === 'closed') column = 'done'
+  else if (reviewAt) column = 'review'
+  else if (steepingAt) column = 'steeping'
+  else if (triagedAt || issue.labels.length > 0 || issue.milestone !== null) column = 'triage'
+  else column = 'diagnosis'
+
+  let actualWorkingDays: number | null = null
+  if (stages.done) {
+    const start = stages.steeping ?? stages.triaged ?? stages.opened
+    actualWorkingDays = workingDaysBetween(new Date(start), new Date(stages.done))
+  }
+
+  let steepingDays: number | null = null
+  if (column === 'steeping' && stages.steeping) {
+    steepingDays = workingDaysBetween(new Date(stages.steeping), asOf)
+  }
+
+  return { column, stages, actualWorkingDays, steepingDays }
+}

packages/core/src/scheduler/scheduler-capacity-v0.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
+/**
+ * Capacity-aware scheduler (#8). Reuses the single-worker scheduler's topological
+ * order + critical-path marking, then re-lays the work across lanes: an issue
+ * runs on its assignee's lane (or the earliest-free lane when unassigned), its
+ * duration scaled by that lane's speed (ideal person-days/workday). Makespan
+ * shrinks toward the critical path as lanes are added. Deterministic; falls back
+ * to the single serial worker when no capacity is configured. The lane layout is
+ * factored so the Monte Carlo forecast reuses it per trial with sampled durations.
+ */
+
+import {
+  type DependencyEdge,
+  schedule,
+  type SchedulableIssue,
+  type SchedulePlan,
+} from './scheduler-v0.js'
+
+/** A scheduling lane: a person and their throughput (ideal person-days / workday). */
+export interface Worker {
+  person: string
+  speed: number
+}
+
+/** The topological order + per-issue relations the layout needs (from the base plan). */
+export interface LaneInputs {
+  order: number[]
+  blockedBy: Map<number, number[]>
+  assignee: Map<number, string | null>
+}
+
+/** Ensure a lane exists for every assignee; unconfigured assignees get the mean speed. */
+export function resolveLanes(workers: Worker[], assignees: (string | null)[]): Worker[] {
+  const lanes = [...workers]
+  const known = new Set(lanes.map((w) => w.person))
+  const meanSpeed = lanes.length ? lanes.reduce((s, w) => s + w.speed, 0) / lanes.length : 1
+  for (const a of assignees) {
+    if (a && !known.has(a)) {
+      lanes.push({ person: a, speed: meanSpeed })
+      known.add(a)
+    }
+  }
+  return lanes
+}
+
+function pickWorker(lanes: Worker[], freeAt: Map<string, number>, assignee: string | null | undefined): Worker {
+  if (assignee) {
+    const own = lanes.find((w) => w.person === assignee)
+    if (own) return own
+  }
+  let best = lanes[0]
+  for (const w of lanes) if (freeAt.get(w.person)! < freeAt.get(best.person)!) best = w
+  return best
+}
+
+/**
+ * Lay a topologically-ordered set out across lanes. `duration(n)` supplies each
+ * issue's duration for this layout (estimate, or a sampled value in a MC trial).
+ * Returns each issue's finish day + the lane it ran on. Order guarantees a
+ * dependency is always laid out before its dependents.
+ */
+export function layoutOnLanes(
+  inputs: LaneInputs,
+  lanes: Worker[],
+  duration: (n: number) => number,
+): { finishAt: Map<number, number>; startAt: Map<number, number>; laneOf: Map<number, string> } {
+  const freeAt = new Map(lanes.map((w) => [w.person, 0]))
+  const finishAt = new Map<number, number>()
+  const startAt = new Map<number, number>()
+  const laneOf = new Map<number, string>()
+  for (const n of inputs.order) {
+    const worker = pickWorker(lanes, freeAt, inputs.assignee.get(n))
+    const blockers = inputs.blockedBy.get(n) ?? []
+    const depFinish = blockers.length ? Math.max(...blockers.map((d) => finishAt.get(d) ?? 0)) : 0
+    const start = Math.max(freeAt.get(worker.person)!, depFinish)
+    const end = start + duration(n) / worker.speed
+    startAt.set(n, start)
+    finishAt.set(n, end)
+    laneOf.set(n, worker.person)
+    freeAt.set(worker.person, end)
+  }
+  return { finishAt, startAt, laneOf }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Capacity-aware plan. An empty `workers` means no capacity is configured → the
+ * single-worker plan verbatim.
+ */
+export function scheduleWithCapacity(
+  issues: SchedulableIssue[],
+  edges: DependencyEdge[],
+  workers: Worker[],
+): SchedulePlan {
+  if (workers.length === 0) return schedule(issues, edges)
+  const base = schedule(issues, edges)
+  if (base.cycle || base.items.length === 0) return base
+
+  const inputs: LaneInputs = {
+    order: base.items.map((it) => it.number),
+    blockedBy: new Map(base.items.map((it) => [it.number, it.blockedBy])),
+    assignee: new Map(issues.map((i) => [i.number, i.assignee ?? null])),
+  }
+  const lanes = resolveLanes(workers, [...inputs.assignee.values()])
+  const durationOf = new Map(base.items.map((it) => [it.number, it.durationDays]))
+  const { finishAt, startAt, laneOf } = layoutOnLanes(inputs, lanes, (n) => durationOf.get(n)!)
+
+  const items = base.items.map((it) => ({
+    ...it,
+    startDay: startAt.get(it.number)!,
+    endDay: finishAt.get(it.number)!,
+    durationDays: finishAt.get(it.number)! - startAt.get(it.number)!,
+    worker: laneOf.get(it.number),
+  }))
+  return { items, cycle: null }
+}
+
+/** Makespan (last finish) of a plan — the project's landing day. */
+export function makespan(plan: SchedulePlan): number {
+  return plan.items.reduce((m, it) => Math.max(m, it.endDay), 0)
+}

packages/core/src/scheduler/scheduler-v0.ts

@@ -21,6 +21,8 @@ export interface SchedulableIssue {
   estimateDays: number | null
   /** 1 (most urgent) … 4; null when unset. */
   priority: number | null
+  /** gitea assignee login, for capacity-aware lane routing; optional. */
+  assignee?: string | null
 }
 
 export interface DependencyEdge {
@@ -45,6 +47,8 @@ export interface ScheduledItem {
   /** On a longest-duration dependency chain. */
   critical: boolean
   rationale: string
+  /** Lane it's scheduled on, when capacity-aware; absent for the single-worker plan. */
+  worker?: string
 }
 
 export interface SchedulePlan {