Merge pull request 'P1-5: lifecycle inference from the issue timeline (#5)' (#39) from p1-5/lifecycle-inference into p2/monte-carlo

Reviewed-on: #39

apps/desktop/e2e/live-backlog.spec.ts

@@ -34,32 +34,6 @@ test.describe('live backlog', () => {
     await expect(win.getByText(/Cold-start priors/)).toBeVisible()
     await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-focus.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
 
-    // Runway → calibration surface, fitted from real closed-issue actuals (#1).
-    // With <20 estimated closes the repo is honestly cold-start; the note proves
-    // the fit ran on real data, not the fixture's "calibrated on 27".
-    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Runway' }).click()
-    await expect(
-      win.getByText(/cold-start priors · \d+\/20 closed issues estimated|calibrated on \d+ closed/),
-    ).toBeVisible()
-    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Full report' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByText(/cold-start · \d+\/20|curve active · n ≥ 20/)).toBeVisible()
-    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-calibration.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
-
-    // Write path (apply_changes): open the top scheduled issue, propose an
-    // estimate change, and confirm the propose-approve diff renders — then CANCEL
-    // so the live run never mutates the real repo (the PUT is unit-tested; a
-    // one-off change→revert verified it against gitea manually).
-    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
-    await win.getByRole('main').getByRole('link').first().click()
-    await expect(win.getByText(/· stephen\/commitea/)).toBeVisible()
-    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Adjust' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByText('Adjust estimate & priority')).toBeVisible()
-    await win.getByRole('combobox').first().selectOption('est/8d')
-    await expect(win.getByText('Proposed label change')).toBeVisible()
-    await expect(win.getByText(/est\/8d/).last()).toBeVisible()
-    await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-apply-change.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
-    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Cancel' }).click() // no mutation
-
     await app.close()
   })
 })

apps/desktop/src/main/gitea.ts

@@ -9,14 +9,7 @@
 import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs'
 import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
 
-import {
-  createGiteaClient,
-  type GiteaConfig,
-  type GiteaLabel,
-  type IssueChange,
-  type LifecycleEvent,
-  planIssueChange,
-} from '@commitea/core'
+import { createGiteaClient, type GiteaConfig, type LifecycleEvent } from '@commitea/core'
 import { ipcMain } from 'electron'
 
 /** Walk up from cwd looking for a .env.local with a GITEA_TOKEN (dev convenience). */
@@ -78,31 +71,4 @@ export function registerGiteaIpc(): void {
     if (!client) return null
     return client.getIssue(index)
   })
-
-  // Cached label list for name→id resolution; refreshed on demand if a name misses.
-  let labelCache: GiteaLabel[] | null = null
-  async function resolveLabelIds(names: string[]): Promise<number[]> {
-    if (!client) return []
-    const lookup = () => new Map(labelCache!.map((l) => [l.name, l.id]))
-    if (!labelCache) labelCache = await client.listLabels()
-    let byName = lookup()
-    if (names.some((n) => !byName.has(n))) {
-      labelCache = await client.listLabels() // a name we don't know — refetch once
-      byName = lookup()
-    }
-    return names.map((n) => byName.get(n)).filter((id): id is number => id != null)
-  }
-
-  // The write path (apply_changes). Additive label swaps, applied only after the
-  // renderer's propose-approve. Returns the plan + the freshly-read issue.
-  ipcMain.handle('gitea:applyChange', async (_event, change: IssueChange) => {
-    if (!client) return { ok: false as const, reason: 'unconfigured' as const }
-    const current = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
-    const plan = planIssueChange(current.labels, change)
-    if (plan.noop) return { ok: true as const, plan, issue: current }
-    const ids = await resolveLabelIds(plan.labels)
-    await client.setIssueLabels(change.issue, ids)
-    const issue = await client.getIssue(change.issue)
-    return { ok: true as const, plan, issue }
-  })
 }

apps/desktop/src/preload/index.ts

@@ -9,8 +9,6 @@ const api = {
     reconcile: () => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:reconcile'),
     /** One issue by index, normalized (or null if unconfigured). */
     getIssue: (index: number) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:getIssue', index),
-    /** Apply an estimate/priority change (the write path); resolves to the plan + fresh issue. */
-    applyChange: (change: unknown) => ipcRenderer.invoke('gitea:applyChange', change),
   },
 }
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/calibration-screen.tsx

@@ -1,12 +1,11 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { CALIBRATION, type CalibrationData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { CALIBRATION } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Badge, Card, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
-// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones.
-// `data` (real fit from closed-issue actuals) overrides the demo fixture.
-export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?: CalibrationData }) {
-  const c = data ?? CALIBRATION
+// Calibration report — estimate-vs-actual evidence behind the cones
+export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack }: { onBack: () => void }) {
+  const c = CALIBRATION
 
   // scatter chart geometry
   const W = 420,
@@ -69,11 +68,7 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?:
             <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Calibration</h1>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.n} closed issues with estimates · evidence, not opinion</p>
           </div>
-          {c.active ? (
           <Badge tone="ok" dot>curve active · n ≥ 20</Badge>
-          ) : (
-            <Badge tone="warn" dot>cold-start · {c.n}/20</Badge>
-          )}
         </header>
       </div>
 
@@ -175,9 +170,7 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?:
               <span style={{ font: '500 12.5px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{c.effect.banded}</span>
             </div>
             <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
-              {c.active
-                ? 'You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.'
-                : 'Not enough closed history yet — I’m forecasting from cold-start priors and widening the cone to stay honest. The curve takes over at 20.'}
+              You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.
             </p>
           </Card>
         </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/focus-screen.tsx

@@ -109,9 +109,7 @@ export function FocusScreen({
         <BurnUpCone data={forecast?.cone} />
         <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
           {forecast
-            ? forecast.coldStart
-              ? `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope. Cold-start priors — ${forecast.calibratedN}/20 estimated closes so far; the cone tightens as the team closes work.`
-              : `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope, calibrated on ${forecast.calibratedN} closed ${forecast.calibratedN === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} of your own.`
+            ? `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope. Cold-start priors — the cone tightens as the team closes work.`
             : 'The cone has narrowed since Friday. I’m quietly pleased.'}
         </p>
       </Card>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/issue-screen.tsx

@@ -1,33 +1,17 @@
 // Issue detail — human intent (gitea) on the left, machine-derived (pm-state) on the right
-import React, { useState } from 'react'
-
-import {
-  describeChange,
-  type EstimateLabel,
-  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
-  type IssueChange,
-  planIssueChange,
-  type PriorityLabel,
-  PRIORITY_LABELS,
-} from '@commitea/core'
+import React from 'react'
 
 import { ISSUE_DETAIL, type IssueDetail, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { Badge, Button, Card, Dialog, Icon, Select, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
-
-const NONE = '—'
+import { Badge, Button, Card, Icon, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 export function IssueScreen({
   issue,
   onBack,
   onOpenIssue,
-  canWrite = false,
-  onApplyChange,
 }: {
   issue: IssueRef
   onBack: () => void
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
-  canWrite?: boolean
-  onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
 }) {
   const det: IssueDetail = ISSUE_DETAIL[issue.id] || {
     state: 'triage',
@@ -56,44 +40,6 @@ export function IssueScreen({
     } as Record<string, { tone: 'warn' | 'neutral' | 'info' | 'ok'; label: string }>
   )[det.state] || { tone: 'neutral', label: det.state }
 
-  // ---- propose-approve write path (apply_changes) ----
-  const labels = issue.labels ?? []
-  const curEstimate = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('est/')) ?? ''
-  const curPriority = labels.find((l) => l.startsWith('p/')) ?? ''
-  const [adjustOpen, setAdjustOpen] = useState(false)
-  const [estimate, setEstimate] = useState(curEstimate)
-  const [priority, setPriority] = useState(curPriority)
-  const [applying, setApplying] = useState(false)
-
-  const openAdjust = () => {
-    setEstimate(curEstimate)
-    setPriority(curPriority)
-    setAdjustOpen(true)
-  }
-
-  // the concrete changes this dialog would apply, one per axis that differs
-  const pendingChanges: IssueChange[] = []
-  if (estimate !== curEstimate)
-    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reestimate', issue: issue.id, estimate: (estimate || null) as EstimateLabel | null })
-  if (priority !== curPriority)
-    pendingChanges.push({ kind: 'reprioritize', issue: issue.id, priority: (priority || null) as PriorityLabel | null })
-
-  const diffs = pendingChanges.map((c) => describeChange(planIssueChange(labels, c)))
-
-  const apply = async () => {
-    if (!onApplyChange || pendingChanges.length === 0) return
-    setApplying(true)
-    try {
-      for (const c of pendingChanges) await onApplyChange(c)
-      setAdjustOpen(false)
-    } finally {
-      setApplying(false)
-    }
-  }
-
-  const estOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...ESTIMATE_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
-  const prioOptions = [{ value: '', label: NONE }, ...PRIORITY_LABELS.map((l) => ({ value: l, label: l }))]
-
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       {/* breadcrumb + header */}
@@ -119,69 +65,10 @@ export function IssueScreen({
               </span>
             </div>
           </div>
-          <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 8, flexShrink: 0 }}>
-            {canWrite ? (
-              <Button variant="secondary" icon="pencil" onClick={openAdjust}>
-                Adjust
-              </Button>
-            ) : null}
           <Button variant="secondary" icon="arrow-up-right">Open in Gitea</Button>
-          </div>
         </header>
       </div>
 
-      <Dialog
-        open={adjustOpen}
-        onClose={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}
-        title="Adjust estimate & priority"
-        footer={
-          <>
-            <Button variant="ghost" onClick={() => setAdjustOpen(false)}>
-              Cancel
-            </Button>
-            <Button onClick={apply} disabled={pendingChanges.length === 0 || applying}>
-              {applying ? 'Applying…' : 'Apply to gitea'}
-            </Button>
-          </>
-        }
-      >
-        <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 14 }}>
-          <Select
-            label="Estimate"
-            options={estOptions}
-            value={estimate}
-            onChange={(e) => setEstimate(e.target.value)}
-          />
-          <Select
-            label="Priority"
-            options={prioOptions}
-            value={priority}
-            onChange={(e) => setPriority(e.target.value)}
-          />
-        </div>
-        <div style={{ marginTop: 14, minHeight: 40 }}>
-          {pendingChanges.length === 0 ? (
-            <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: 0 }}>
-              No change yet — pick a different estimate or priority.
-            </p>
-          ) : (
-            <>
-              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-overline)', letterSpacing: 'var(--letter-spacing-wide)', textTransform: 'uppercase', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '0 0 6px' }}>
-                Proposed label change
-              </p>
-              {diffs.map((d) => (
-                <div key={d} style={{ font: '500 13px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-1)' }}>
-                  {d}
-                </div>
-              ))}
-              <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '8px 0 0' }}>
-                Writes the label to gitea and re-runs the plan. Nothing else changes.
-              </p>
-            </>
-          )}
-        </div>
-      </Dialog>
-
       <div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1fr 300px', gap: 16, alignItems: 'start' }}>
         {/* left: human intent */}
         <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/runway-screen.tsx

@@ -8,22 +8,15 @@ import { RUNWAY, CAPACITY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 export function RunwayScreen({
   onOpenCalibration,
   onOpenMilestone,
-  calibration,
 }: {
   onOpenCalibration: () => void
   onOpenMilestone: () => void
-  calibration?: { n: number; coldStart: boolean }
 }) {
-  const calibNote = calibration
-    ? calibration.coldStart
-      ? `cold-start priors · ${calibration.n}/20 closed issues estimated`
-      : `calibrated on ${calibration.n} closed ${calibration.n === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}`
-    : 'calibrated on 27 closed issues'
   return (
     <div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
       <header style={{ borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)', paddingBottom: 14 }}>
         <h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Runway</h1>
-        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · {calibNote}</p>
+        <p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0' }}>capacity vs milestone dates · calibrated on 27 closed issues</p>
       </header>
 
       <Card overline="Milestones" flush>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/shell/app-shell.tsx

@@ -1,10 +1,8 @@
 import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
 import logoIcon from '../../design/assets/logo-icon.png'
-import type { IssueChange } from '@commitea/core'
-
 import type { IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { backlogCalibration, forecastBacklog, issuesToBoardColumns, scheduleFocus } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
+import { forecastBacklog, issuesToBoardColumns, scheduleFocus } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { useBacklog } from '../../lib/use-backlog.js'
 import { PrimitivesGallery } from '../gallery.js'
 import { BoardScreen } from '../screens/board-screen.js'
@@ -87,17 +85,13 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const [offline, setOffline] = useState(false)
   const [issue, setIssue] = useState<IssueRef | null>(null)
   const [readIds, setReadIds] = useState<number[]>([])
-  const [backlog, refetchBacklog] = useBacklog()
+  const backlog = useBacklog()
   const boardColumns =
     backlog.status === 'ready' ? issuesToBoardColumns(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
   const focus =
     backlog.status === 'ready' ? scheduleFocus(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, backlog.timelines) : undefined
-  const calibration =
-    backlog.status === 'ready' ? backlogCalibration(backlog.issues, backlog.timelines) : undefined
   const forecast =
-    backlog.status === 'ready'
-      ? (forecastBacklog(backlog.issues, backlog.deps, new Date(), calibration?.model) ?? undefined)
-      : undefined
+    backlog.status === 'ready' ? (forecastBacklog(backlog.issues, backlog.deps) ?? undefined) : undefined
 
   useEffect(() => {
     document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme', dark ? 'dark' : 'light')
@@ -109,17 +103,6 @@ export function AppShell() {
     setView('issue')
   }
 
-  // The write path: apply through the bridge, reflect the new labels on the open
-  // issue immediately, and re-reconcile so the board + forecast catch up.
-  const applyChange = async (change: IssueChange) => {
-    const res = await window.commitea.gitea.applyChange(change)
-    if (res.ok) {
-      setIssue((cur) => (cur && cur.id === res.issue.number ? { ...cur, labels: res.issue.labels } : cur))
-      refetchBacklog()
-    }
-    return res
-  }
-
   const NAV: NavEntry[] = [
     { id: 'standup', label: 'Standup', icon: 'sun' },
     { id: 'focus', label: 'Morning service', icon: 'coffee' },
@@ -195,11 +178,10 @@ export function AppShell() {
           <RunwayScreen
             onOpenCalibration={() => setView('calibration')}
             onOpenMilestone={() => setView('milestone')}
-            calibration={calibration ? { n: calibration.model.n, coldStart: calibration.model.coldStart } : undefined}
           />
         )
       case 'calibration':
-        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} data={calibration?.data} />
+        return <CalibrationScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} />
       case 'milestone':
         return <MilestoneScreen onBack={() => setView('runway')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
       case 'inbox':
@@ -219,13 +201,7 @@ export function AppShell() {
         return <SettingsScreen dark={dark} setDark={setDark} />
       case 'issue':
         return issue ? (
-          <IssueScreen
-            issue={issue}
-            onBack={() => setView(prevView)}
-            onOpenIssue={openIssue}
-            canWrite={backlog.status === 'ready'}
-            onApplyChange={applyChange}
-          />
+          <IssueScreen issue={issue} onBack={() => setView(prevView)} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
         ) : null
       case 'states':
         return <StatesScreen onCapture={() => setView('capture')} />

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/global.d.ts

@@ -1,16 +1,4 @@
-import type {
-  DependencyEdge,
-  GiteaIssue,
-  GiteaMilestone,
-  IssueChange,
-  LabelPlan,
-  LifecycleEvent,
-} from '@commitea/core'
-
-/** The result of a write through the bridge. */
-export type ApplyChangeResult =
-  | { ok: false; reason: 'unconfigured' }
-  | { ok: true; plan: LabelPlan; issue: GiteaIssue }
+import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone, LifecycleEvent } from '@commitea/core'
 
 /** The gitea bridge exposed by the preload over IPC (main-process backed). */
 export interface GiteaBridge {
@@ -24,7 +12,6 @@ export interface GiteaBridge {
     timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
   }>
   getIssue(index: number): Promise<GiteaIssue | null>
-  applyChange(change: IssueChange): Promise<ApplyChangeResult>
 }
 
 declare global {

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/backlog.ts

@@ -1,24 +1,17 @@
 import {
-  type CalibrationModel,
-  type CalibrationSample,
-  calibrationSamples,
-  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
   type DependencyEdge,
-  fitCalibration,
   forecast,
   type GiteaIssue,
   inferLifecycle,
   type LifecycleColumn,
   type LifecycleEvent,
   type LifecycleInference,
-  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
   schedule,
   type ScheduledItem,
   selectFocus,
-  toDurationModel,
 } from '@commitea/core'
 
-import { type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type CalibrationData, type FocusIssue } from '../data/fixtures.js'
+import { type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type FocusIssue } from '../data/fixtures.js'
 import { type BurnUpData, buildBurnUpData } from './dates.js'
 
 type Timelines = Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
@@ -107,109 +100,22 @@ export interface ForecastView {
   cone: BurnUpData
   p80Label: string
   rangeLabel: string
-  /** true while the forecast still runs on code priors (calibration not yet trusted). */
-  coldStart: boolean
-  /** Closed-with-estimate issues feeding calibration so far. */
-  calibratedN: number
 }
 
 /**
  * Monte Carlo forecast over the open backlog, mapped onto a calendar-anchored
- * burn-up cone. When a calibration model is supplied and past cold-start, its
- * fitted params drive the sim. Returns null when there's nothing to forecast.
- * `today` is injectable for tests.
+ * burn-up cone. Returns null when there's nothing to forecast (no open scope) —
+ * the UI then falls back to the demo cone. `today` is injectable for tests.
  */
 export function forecastBacklog(
   issues: GiteaIssue[],
   deps: DependencyEdge[],
   today: Date = new Date(),
-  calibration?: CalibrationModel,
 ): ForecastView | null {
-  const model = calibration ? toDurationModel(calibration) : undefined
-  const f = forecast(toSchedulable(issues), deps, model ? { model } : {})
+  const f = forecast(toSchedulable(issues), deps)
   const cone = buildBurnUpData(f, today)
   if (!cone) return null
-  return {
-    scope: f.scope,
-    cone,
-    p80Label: cone.p80Label,
-    rangeLabel: cone.rangeLabel,
-    coldStart: f.coldStart,
-    calibratedN: calibration?.n ?? 0,
-  }
-}
-
-/** Fit the calibration model from the closed backlog's inferred actuals (#1). */
-export function calibrateBacklog(
-  issues: GiteaIssue[],
-  timelines: Timelines = {},
-  asOf: Date = new Date(),
-): CalibrationModel {
-  return fitCalibration(calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf))
-}
-
-/** Calibration model + its screen view in one pass over the closed backlog. */
-export function backlogCalibration(
-  issues: GiteaIssue[],
-  timelines: Timelines = {},
-  asOf: Date = new Date(),
-): { model: CalibrationModel; data: CalibrationData } {
-  const samples = calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf)
-  const model = fitCalibration(samples)
-  return { model, data: calibrationData(model, samples, issues) }
-}
-
-const pctFromMu = (mu: number) => Math.round((Math.exp(mu) - 1) * 100)
-
-/**
- * Shape the calibration model + its samples into the screen's view. Buckets and
- * people only earn a bias once their sample clears the fit floor; everything
- * degrades honestly on a thin (cold-start) dataset.
- */
-export function calibrationData(
-  model: CalibrationModel,
-  samples: CalibrationSample[],
-  openIssues: GiteaIssue[],
-): CalibrationData {
-  const labels = PRIOR_BUCKETS.map((b) => {
-    const inBucket = samples.filter((s) => s.bucket === b)
-    const fit = model.byBucket[b]
-    const mu = fit ? fit.mu : model.global.mu
-    return {
-      label: `est/${b}d`,
-      n: fit ? fit.n : inBucket.length,
-      median: inBucket.length ? `${(b * Math.exp(mu)).toFixed(1)}d` : '—',
-      bias: fit ? pctFromMu(fit.mu) : null,
-    }
-  })
-
-  const people = Object.entries(model.byPerson).map(([who, pb]) => ({
-    who,
-    n: pb.n,
-    bias: pctFromMu(model.global.mu + pb.biasMu),
-    note: '',
-  }))
-
-  const openEst = openIssues
-    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-    .reduce((sum, i) => sum + (i.facts.estimateDays ?? 2), 0)
-  const effect = model.coldStart
-    ? { raw: `${model.n}/${COLD_START_THRESHOLD} estimated closes`, banded: 'cold-start priors', p50: '—' }
-    : {
-        raw: `${openEst}d estimated`,
-        banded: `×${Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)} median drift`,
-        p50: `≈${Math.round(openEst * Math.exp(model.global.mu))}d`,
-      }
-
-  return {
-    n: model.n,
-    active: !model.coldStart,
-    labels,
-    people,
-    scatter: samples.map((s) => [s.estimateDays, s.actualWorkingDays]),
-    fit: Number(Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)),
-    effect,
-  }
+  return { scope: f.scope, cone, p80Label: cone.p80Label, rangeLabel: cone.rangeLabel }
 }
 
 /**

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/use-backlog.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
 import type { DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone, LifecycleEvent } from '@commitea/core'
 
@@ -15,15 +15,12 @@ export type BacklogState =
     }
 
 /**
- * Reconcile the managed repo through the main-process bridge. Runs once on
- * mount; the returned `refetch` re-reconciles after a write so the board and
- * forecast reflect the change. `unconfigured` means no token — the UI falls
- * back to demo fixtures. Errors (network, bad token) surface as `error`.
+ * Reconcile the managed repo once on mount, through the main-process bridge.
+ * `unconfigured` means no token — the UI falls back to demo fixtures. Errors
+ * (network, bad token) surface as `error`.
  */
-export function useBacklog(): [BacklogState, () => void] {
+export function useBacklog(): BacklogState {
   const [state, setState] = useState<BacklogState>({ status: 'loading' })
-  const [nonce, setNonce] = useState(0)
-  const refetch = useCallback(() => setNonce((n) => n + 1), [])
 
   useEffect(() => {
     let alive = true
@@ -49,7 +46,7 @@ export function useBacklog(): [BacklogState, () => void] {
     return () => {
       alive = false
     }
-  }, [nonce])
+  }, [])
 
-  return [state, refetch]
+  return state
 }

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.test.ts

@@ -1,121 +0,0 @@
-import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
-
-import { extractLabelFacts } from '../labels/label-schema.js'
-import type { LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
-import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
-import {
-  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
-  calibrationSamples,
-  type CalibrationSample,
-  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
-  fitCalibration,
-  toDurationModel,
-} from './calibration-v0.js'
-
-function sample(over: Partial<CalibrationSample> = {}): CalibrationSample {
-  return { issue: 1, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 2, bucket: 2, person: null, ...over }
-}
-
-describe('fitCalibration', () => {
-  it('is cold-start below the threshold and reports the honest n', () => {
-    const m = fitCalibration([sample(), sample({ actualWorkingDays: 4 })])
-    expect(m.n).toBe(2)
-    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(true)
-  })
-
-  it('flips off cold-start at the threshold', () => {
-    const many = Array.from({ length: COLD_START_THRESHOLD }, (_, i) =>
-      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
-    )
-    const m = fitCalibration(many)
-    expect(m.n).toBe(COLD_START_THRESHOLD)
-    expect(m.coldStart).toBe(false)
-  })
-
-  it('recovers the global median ratio (mu = mean log-ratio)', () => {
-    // every actual is exactly 2x its estimate → mu = ln 2
-    const m = fitCalibration(Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 4 })))
-    expect(m.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(Math.log(2), 6)
-  })
-
-  it('fits a bucket only once it clears the floor', () => {
-    const twos = Array.from({ length: CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR }, (_, i) =>
-      sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 }),
-    )
-    const oneThin = [sample({ issue: 99, estimateDays: 5, actualWorkingDays: 9, bucket: 5 })]
-    const m = fitCalibration([...twos, ...oneThin])
-    expect(m.byBucket[2]?.n).toBe(CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR)
-    expect(m.byBucket[5]).toBeUndefined() // only 1 sample, below floor
-  })
-
-  it('drops non-positive estimates/actuals', () => {
-    const m = fitCalibration([sample({ actualWorkingDays: 0 }), sample({ estimateDays: 0 }), sample()])
-    expect(m.n).toBe(1)
-  })
-
-  it('derives a per-person bias relative to global', () => {
-    // one person consistently runs longer than the mean
-    const base = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, actualWorkingDays: 2, person: 'ak' }))
-    const slow = Array.from({ length: 3 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: 100 + i, actualWorkingDays: 6, person: 'sm' }))
-    const m = fitCalibration([...base, ...slow])
-    expect(m.byPerson['sm'].biasMu).toBeGreaterThan(0)
-    expect(m.byPerson['ak'].biasMu).toBeLessThan(0)
-  })
-})
-
-describe('toDurationModel', () => {
-  it('projects the fit down to the params forecast needs', () => {
-    const m = fitCalibration(
-      Array.from({ length: 25 }, (_, i) => sample({ issue: i, estimateDays: 2, actualWorkingDays: 3, bucket: 2 })),
-    )
-    const dm = toDurationModel(m)
-    expect(dm.coldStart).toBe(false)
-    expect(dm.byBucket[2].mu).toBeCloseTo(m.byBucket[2].mu, 6)
-    expect(dm.global.mu).toBeCloseTo(m.global.mu, 6)
-  })
-})
-
-describe('calibrationSamples', () => {
-  const asOf = new Date('2026-02-01T00:00:00Z')
-
-  function issue(over: Partial<GiteaIssue>): GiteaIssue {
-    const labels = over.labels ?? []
-    return {
-      number: 1,
-      title: '#1',
-      body: '',
-      state: 'closed',
-      labels,
-      facts: extractLabelFacts(labels),
-      milestone: null,
-      assignee: null,
-      assignees: [],
-      createdAt: '2026-01-05T09:00:00Z',
-      updatedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
-      closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z',
-      url: '',
-      ...over,
-    }
-  }
-
-  const events = (i: number): Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]> => ({
-    [i]: [{ type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-07T09:00:00Z' }, { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' }],
-  })
-
-  it('samples closed, estimated issues with a resolvable actual', () => {
-    const i = issue({ number: 7, labels: ['est/2d'], assignee: 'sm', closedAt: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' })
-    const [s] = calibrationSamples([i], events(7), asOf)
-    expect(s.issue).toBe(7)
-    expect(s.estimateDays).toBe(2)
-    expect(s.bucket).toBe(2)
-    expect(s.person).toBe('sm')
-    // Wed 2026-01-07 → Mon 2026-01-12 = Wed,Thu,Fri = 3 working days
-    expect(s.actualWorkingDays).toBe(3)
-  })
-
-  it('skips open issues and closed ones without an estimate', () => {
-    const open = issue({ number: 8, state: 'open', labels: ['est/2d'], closedAt: null })
-    const noEst = issue({ number: 9, labels: [] })
-    expect(calibrationSamples([open, noEst], { ...events(8), ...events(9) }, asOf)).toEqual([])
-  })
-})

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.ts

@@ -1,127 +0,0 @@
-/**
- * Calibration, v0 — fit the team's own estimate-vs-actual history so the
- * forecast stops guessing (D3). The "actual" is the working time lifecycle
- * inference derives from git events (#5), never manual tracking. Fit a
- * lognormal on log(actual / estimate) globally and per estimate bucket; until
- * the sample clears the cold-start threshold, the forecast keeps using the
- * code-resident priors and this model just reports progress toward it.
- */
-
-import { type DurationModel, type LognormalPrior, nearestBucket } from '../forecast/forecast-v0.js'
-import { inferLifecycle, type LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
-import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
-
-/** Global sample size at which the fit takes over from the cold-start priors. */
-export const COLD_START_THRESHOLD = 20
-/** Minimum per-bucket sample before that bucket earns its own fit. */
-export const CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR = 3
-/** Fallback spread when a group is too small to estimate one. */
-const DEFAULT_SIGMA = 0.4
-
-/** One closed issue's estimate vs its inferred actual. */
-export interface CalibrationSample {
-  issue: number
-  estimateDays: number
-  actualWorkingDays: number
-  bucket: number
-  person: string | null
-}
-
-export interface BucketFit extends LognormalPrior {
-  n: number
-}
-
-export interface PersonBias {
-  /** Additive to global mu (log space). */
-  biasMu: number
-  n: number
-}
-
-export interface CalibrationModel {
-  /** Closed issues with an estimate + a resolvable actual. */
-  n: number
-  /** true while n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD — forecast keeps the code priors. */
-  coldStart: boolean
-  global: LognormalPrior
-  byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit>
-  byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias>
-}
-
-function mean(xs: number[]): number {
-  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length
-}
-
-/** Sample standard deviation; falls back to DEFAULT_SIGMA below 2 points. */
-function stddev(xs: number[], mu: number): number {
-  if (xs.length < 2) return DEFAULT_SIGMA
-  const variance = xs.reduce((a, x) => a + (x - mu) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)
-  return Math.sqrt(variance) || DEFAULT_SIGMA
-}
-
-/** Fit a calibration model from estimate-vs-actual samples. Pure. */
-export function fitCalibration(samples: CalibrationSample[]): CalibrationModel {
-  const usable = samples.filter((s) => s.estimateDays > 0 && s.actualWorkingDays > 0)
-  const n = usable.length
-  const coldStart = n < COLD_START_THRESHOLD
-
-  const logRatios = usable.map((s) => Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays))
-  const globalMu = n ? mean(logRatios) : 0
-  const global: LognormalPrior = { mu: globalMu, sigma: n ? stddev(logRatios, globalMu) : DEFAULT_SIGMA }
-
-  const byBucket: Record<number, BucketFit> = {}
-  const byPerson: Record<string, PersonBias> = {}
-  const groups = new Map<number, number[]>()
-  const people = new Map<string, number[]>()
-  for (const s of usable) {
-    const lr = Math.log(s.actualWorkingDays / s.estimateDays)
-    ;(groups.get(s.bucket) ?? groups.set(s.bucket, []).get(s.bucket)!).push(lr)
-    if (s.person) (people.get(s.person) ?? people.set(s.person, []).get(s.person)!).push(lr)
-  }
-  for (const [bucket, lrs] of groups) {
-    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
-    const mu = mean(lrs)
-    byBucket[bucket] = { mu, sigma: stddev(lrs, mu), n: lrs.length }
-  }
-  for (const [person, lrs] of people) {
-    if (lrs.length < CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR) continue
-    byPerson[person] = { biasMu: mean(lrs) - globalMu, n: lrs.length }
-  }
-
-  return { n, coldStart, global, byBucket, byPerson }
-}
-
-/** The subset of a model `forecast` consumes. */
-export function toDurationModel(model: CalibrationModel): DurationModel {
-  const byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {}
-  for (const [bucket, fit] of Object.entries(model.byBucket)) {
-    byBucket[Number(bucket)] = { mu: fit.mu, sigma: fit.sigma }
-  }
-  return { coldStart: model.coldStart, global: model.global, byBucket }
-}
-
-/**
- * Extract calibration samples from the closed backlog: each closed issue that
- * carries an estimate and yields an inferred actual working duration.
- */
-export function calibrationSamples(
-  issues: GiteaIssue[],
-  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>,
-  asOf: Date,
-): CalibrationSample[] {
-  const out: CalibrationSample[] = []
-  for (const issue of issues) {
-    if (issue.state !== 'closed') continue
-    const estimateDays = issue.facts.estimateDays
-    if (estimateDays == null) continue
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
-    if (inf.actualWorkingDays == null || inf.actualWorkingDays <= 0) continue
-    out.push({
-      issue: issue.number,
-      estimateDays,
-      actualWorkingDays: inf.actualWorkingDays,
-      bucket: nearestBucket(estimateDays),
-      person: issue.assignee,
-    })
-  }
-  return out
-}

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.test.ts

@@ -1,54 +0,0 @@
-import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
-
-import { describeChange, type IssueChange, planIssueChange } from './apply-changes-v0.js'
-
-describe('planIssueChange', () => {
-  it('swaps the estimate label, keeping non-axis labels', () => {
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1', 'backend'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
-    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
-    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/5d'])
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'backend', 'est/5d'])
-    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
-  })
-
-  it('adds an estimate when none was set', () => {
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['p/2'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/1d' })
-    expect(plan.removed).toEqual([])
-    expect(plan.added).toEqual(['est/1d'])
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/2', 'est/1d'])
-  })
-
-  it('clears the axis when the target is null', () => {
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/3d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null })
-    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['p/1'])
-    expect(plan.added).toEqual([])
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/3d'])
-  })
-
-  it('is a noop when the target already holds the axis alone', () => {
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/2d' })
-    expect(plan.noop).toBe(true)
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/2d'])
-  })
-
-  it('cleans up a duplicated axis down to the target', () => {
-    // two est/* labels — the change collapses to one
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'est/5d', 'p/1'], { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' })
-    expect(plan.removed).toEqual(['est/2d'])
-    expect(plan.added).toEqual([]) // est/5d already present
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['p/1', 'est/5d'])
-    expect(plan.noop).toBe(false)
-  })
-
-  it('reprioritize only touches the priority axis', () => {
-    const plan = planIssueChange(['est/2d', 'p/3'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: 'p/1' })
-    expect(plan.labels).toEqual(['est/2d', 'p/1'])
-  })
-
-  it('describeChange renders the diff', () => {
-    const change: IssueChange = { kind: 'reestimate', issue: 1, estimate: 'est/5d' }
-    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/2d'], change))).toBe('est/2d → est/5d')
-    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['p/1'], { kind: 'reprioritize', issue: 1, priority: null }))).toBe('p/1 → ∅')
-    expect(describeChange(planIssueChange(['est/5d'], change))).toBe('no change')
-  })
-})

packages/core/src/changes/apply-changes-v0.ts

@@ -1,59 +0,0 @@
-/**
- * Apply-changes, v0 — the write path's planning half. Estimates and priority
- * live as exclusive label axes (`est/*`, `p/*`); a change swaps the axis label.
- * This computes the resulting label set + a human-readable diff *purely*, so the
- * UI can show a propose-approve consequence before the write and tests can pin
- * the semantics. The actual PUT (name→id resolution + network) is the bridge's
- * job — additive here, never assumed.
- */
-
-import {
-  type EstimateLabel,
-  ESTIMATE_LABELS,
-  type PriorityLabel,
-  PRIORITY_LABELS,
-} from '../labels/label-schema.js'
-
-export type IssueChange =
-  | { kind: 'reestimate'; issue: number; estimate: EstimateLabel | null }
-  | { kind: 'reprioritize'; issue: number; priority: PriorityLabel | null }
-
-export interface LabelPlan {
-  /** The full resulting label-name set (order: kept labels, then the new axis label). */
-  labels: string[]
-  /** Axis labels being added (0 or 1). */
-  added: string[]
-  /** Axis labels being removed (includes clearing a duplicated axis). */
-  removed: string[]
-  /** true when the change would leave the labels unchanged. */
-  noop: boolean
-}
-
-function axisFor(change: IssueChange): { labels: readonly string[]; target: string | null } {
-  return change.kind === 'reestimate'
-    ? { labels: ESTIMATE_LABELS, target: change.estimate }
-    : { labels: PRIORITY_LABELS, target: change.priority }
-}
-
-/**
- * Plan the label mutation for a single change. Removes every label on the
- * change's axis except the target, adds the target if absent. Setting the axis
- * to null clears it. Cleans up a duplicated axis (two `est/*`) as a side effect.
- */
-export function planIssueChange(current: string[], change: IssueChange): LabelPlan {
-  const { labels: axis, target } = axisFor(change)
-  const onAxis = current.filter((l) => axis.includes(l))
-  const removed = onAxis.filter((l) => l !== target)
-  const added = target && !current.includes(target) ? [target] : []
-  const kept = current.filter((l) => !axis.includes(l))
-  const labels = target ? [...kept, target] : kept
-  return { labels, added, removed, noop: added.length === 0 && removed.length === 0 }
-}
-
-/** A short "est/2d → est/3d" (or "+p/1" / "−est/5d") summary for the confirm UI. */
-export function describeChange(plan: LabelPlan): string {
-  if (plan.noop) return 'no change'
-  const from = plan.removed.length ? plan.removed.join(', ') : '∅'
-  const to = plan.added.length ? plan.added.join(', ') : '∅'
-  return `${from} → ${to}`
-}

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.test.ts

@@ -97,27 +97,4 @@ describe('forecast', () => {
     expect(f.scope).toBe(2)
     expect(f.p50Day).toBeGreaterThan(0)
   })
-
-  it('a cold-start model changes nothing — the code priors still drive it', () => {
-    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 1000, seed: 7 })
-    const cold = forecast(scope, [], {
-      trials: 1000,
-      seed: 7,
-      model: { coldStart: true, global: { mu: 5, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
-    })
-    expect(cold.coldStart).toBe(true)
-    expect(cold.p50Day).toBeCloseTo(priors.p50Day, 6)
-  })
-
-  it('a fitted model drives the sim once past cold-start', () => {
-    // an optimistic fit (mu < 0, tight sigma) should land the scope sooner than the pessimistic priors
-    const priors = forecast(scope, [], { trials: 2000, seed: 7 })
-    const fitted = forecast(scope, [], {
-      trials: 2000,
-      seed: 7,
-      model: { coldStart: false, global: { mu: -0.2, sigma: 0.1 }, byBucket: {} },
-    })
-    expect(fitted.coldStart).toBe(false)
-    expect(fitted.p50Day).toBeLessThan(priors.p50Day)
-  })
 })

packages/core/src/forecast/forecast-v0.ts

@@ -41,29 +41,15 @@ export const COLD_START_PRIORS: Record<number, LognormalPrior> = {
   8: { mu: 0.16, sigma: 0.36 },
 }
 
-export const PRIOR_BUCKETS = [1, 2, 3, 5, 8]
+const PRIOR_BUCKETS = [1, 2, 3, 5, 8]
 
 /** Nearest estimate bucket (ties resolve to the smaller bucket). */
-export function nearestBucket(days: number): number {
+export function priorForEstimate(days: number): LognormalPrior {
   let best = PRIOR_BUCKETS[0]
   for (const b of PRIOR_BUCKETS) {
     if (Math.abs(b - days) < Math.abs(best - days)) best = b
   }
-  return best
-}
-
-/** The cold-start prior for the bucket nearest to `days`. */
-export function priorForEstimate(days: number): LognormalPrior {
-  return COLD_START_PRIORS[nearestBucket(days)]
-}
-
-/** The lognormal parameters `forecast` needs, per estimate bucket. */
-export interface DurationModel {
-  coldStart: boolean
-  /** Fallback params (used when a bucket lacks its own fit). */
-  global: LognormalPrior
-  /** Per-bucket fitted params; missing buckets fall back to `global`. */
-  byBucket: Record<number, LognormalPrior>
+  return COLD_START_PRIORS[best]
 }
 
 export interface ForecastOptions {
@@ -71,19 +57,6 @@ export interface ForecastOptions {
   trials?: number
   /** PRNG seed. Fixed by default so a forecast is reproducible. */
   seed?: number
-  /**
-   * Fitted duration model. When present and not cold-start, its params drive
-   * the sim; otherwise the code-resident cold-start priors do.
-   */
-  model?: DurationModel
-}
-
-/** Resolve the lognormal params for an estimate, preferring a fitted model. */
-export function durationParams(days: number, model?: DurationModel): LognormalPrior {
-  if (model && !model.coldStart) {
-    return model.byBucket[nearestBucket(days)] ?? model.global
-  }
-  return priorForEstimate(days)
 }
 
 export interface BurnUpPoint {
@@ -148,14 +121,13 @@ export function forecast(
 ): Forecast {
   const trials = options.trials ?? DEFAULT_TRIALS
   const seed = options.seed ?? DEFAULT_SEED
-  const coldStart = options.model ? options.model.coldStart : true
   const order = schedule(issues, edges).items // empty when a dependency cycle exists
   const n = order.length
   if (n === 0) {
-    return { scope: 0, trials, coldStart, p50Day: 0, p80Day: 0, p95Day: 0, curve: [] }
+    return { scope: 0, trials, coldStart: true, p50Day: 0, p80Day: 0, p95Day: 0, curve: [] }
   }
 
-  const priors = order.map((it) => durationParams(it.durationDays, options.model))
+  const priors = order.map((it) => priorForEstimate(it.durationDays))
   const rng = mulberry32(seed)
 
   // endByRank[k][t] = working day the (k+1)-th scheduled issue completes on trial t.
@@ -184,7 +156,7 @@ export function forecast(
   return {
     scope: n,
     trials,
-    coldStart,
+    coldStart: true,
     p50Day: percentile(total, 0.5),
     p80Day: percentile(total, 0.8),
     p95Day: percentile(total, 0.95),

packages/core/src/gitea/client.test.ts

@@ -123,29 +123,6 @@ describe('createGiteaClient.getIssue', () => {
     )
   })
 
-  it('setIssueLabels PUTs the label ids to the issue labels endpoint', async () => {
-    const { fetch, calls } = stubFetch(null, 204)
-    await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).setIssueLabels(9, [3, 7])
-
-    expect(calls).toHaveLength(1)
-    expect(calls[0].url).toBe('https://gitea.stephenmann.io/api/v1/repos/christian/commitea/issues/9/labels')
-    expect(calls[0].init?.method).toBe('PUT')
-    expect(calls[0].init?.headers?.['Content-Type']).toBe('application/json')
-    expect(JSON.parse(calls[0].init?.body ?? '{}')).toEqual({ labels: [3, 7] })
-  })
-
-  it('listLabels returns id+name pairs', async () => {
-    const { fetch } = stubFetch([
-      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d', color: 'fff' },
-      { id: 7, name: 'p/1', color: '000' },
-    ])
-    const labels = await createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch).listLabels()
-    expect(labels).toEqual([
-      { id: 3, name: 'est/2d' },
-      { id: 7, name: 'p/1' },
-    ])
-  })
-
   it('throws GiteaApiError carrying status + body on a non-2xx response', async () => {
     const { fetch } = stubFetch('not found', 404)
     const client = createGiteaClient(CONFIG, fetch)

packages/core/src/gitea/client.ts

@@ -13,7 +13,6 @@ import {
   type FetchLike,
   type GiteaConfig,
   type GiteaIssue,
-  type GiteaLabel,
   type GiteaMilestone,
   type GiteaMilestoneRef,
 } from './types.js'
@@ -99,10 +98,6 @@ export interface GiteaClient {
   getIssueDependencies(index: number): Promise<number[]>
   /** Normalized lifecycle events for one issue (all pages of its timeline). */
   getIssueTimeline(index: number): Promise<LifecycleEvent[]>
-  /** Every label defined on the repo (id + name), for name→id resolution. */
-  listLabels(): Promise<GiteaLabel[]>
-  /** Replace an issue's entire label set with the given label ids. Write. */
-  setIssueLabels(index: number, labelIds: number[]): Promise<void>
 }
 
 /** Map raw gitea issue JSON to the normalized domain shape. Pure. */
@@ -149,24 +144,18 @@ export function createGiteaClient(config: GiteaConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): Gi
   const apiBase = `${config.baseUrl.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/api/v1`
   const repoBase = `${apiBase}/repos/${config.owner}/${config.repo}`
 
-  async function request(path: string, init?: { method?: string; body?: unknown }): Promise<unknown> {
-    const method = init?.method ?? 'GET'
-    const hasBody = init?.body !== undefined
+  async function request(path: string): Promise<unknown> {
     const res = await fetchImpl(`${repoBase}${path}`, {
-      method,
       headers: {
         Authorization: `token ${config.token}`,
         Accept: 'application/json',
-        ...(hasBody ? { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' } : {}),
       },
-      body: hasBody ? JSON.stringify(init!.body) : undefined,
     })
     if (!res.ok) {
       const body = await res.text().catch(() => '')
-      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `${method} ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
+      throw new GiteaApiError(res.status, `GET ${path} failed (${res.status})`, body)
     }
-    // writes may reply 204 No Content
-    return res.status === 204 ? null : res.json()
+    return res.json()
   }
 
   /** Follow gitea's page-limit pagination until a short page is returned. */
@@ -211,16 +200,5 @@ export function createGiteaClient(config: GiteaConfig, fetchImpl: FetchLike): Gi
       )
       return normalizeTimeline(raw)
     },
-
-    async listLabels() {
-      const raw = await requestAll<{ id: number; name: string }>(
-        (page) => `/labels?page=${page}&limit=${PAGE_LIMIT}`,
-      )
-      return raw.map((l) => ({ id: l.id, name: l.name }))
-    },
-
-    async setIssueLabels(index, labelIds) {
-      await request(`/issues/${index}/labels`, { method: 'PUT', body: { labels: labelIds } })
-    },
   }
 }

packages/core/src/gitea/types.ts

@@ -35,12 +35,6 @@ export interface GiteaHttpResponse {
 
 export type FetchLike = (url: string, init?: GiteaRequestInit) => Promise<GiteaHttpResponse>
 
-/** A repo label — just the id + name we need for name→id resolution. */
-export interface GiteaLabel {
-  id: number
-  name: string
-}
-
 /** Milestone as referenced from an issue (not the full milestone resource). */
 export interface GiteaMilestoneRef {
   id: number

packages/core/src/index.ts

@@ -17,15 +17,11 @@ export type {
   GiteaConfig,
   GiteaHttpResponse,
   GiteaIssue,
-  GiteaLabel,
   GiteaMilestone,
   GiteaMilestoneRef,
   GiteaRequestInit,
 } from './gitea/types.js'
 
-export { describeChange, planIssueChange } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
-export type { IssueChange, LabelPlan } from './changes/apply-changes-v0.js'
-
 export {
   inferColumnV0,
   inferLifecycle,
@@ -49,32 +45,5 @@ export type {
   SchedulePlan,
 } from './scheduler/scheduler-v0.js'
 
-export {
-  COLD_START_PRIORS,
-  durationParams,
-  forecast,
-  nearestBucket,
-  PRIOR_BUCKETS,
-  priorForEstimate,
-} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
-export type {
-  BurnUpPoint,
-  DurationModel,
-  Forecast,
-  ForecastOptions,
-  LognormalPrior,
-} from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
-
-export {
-  CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
-  calibrationSamples,
-  COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
-  fitCalibration,
-  toDurationModel,
-} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
-export type {
-  BucketFit,
-  CalibrationModel,
-  CalibrationSample,
-  PersonBias,
-} from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
+export { COLD_START_PRIORS, forecast, priorForEstimate } from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'
+export type { BurnUpPoint, Forecast, ForecastOptions, LognormalPrior } from './forecast/forecast-v0.js'