grant-outreach-engine/docs/features/scoring.md

Scoring engine v1 (Stage 2)

Nightly matchGrants workflow (05:15 UTC, after embeddings) — the plan's "SQL gates, vectors rank" hybrid.

Flow, per candidate org (NH + good standing + primary ICP)

1. Profile embedding — v0 stub: NTEE-derived mission text (buildOrgMissionText) embedded as RETRIEVAL_QUERY, stored in org_profiles at confidence 0.2. The Stage 4 research profiler upgrades the row in place; this workflow doesn't change.
2. Retrieval — serverListEligibleGrantsForOrg: one SQL statement enforcing the cheap hard gates (status open, embedded, deadline ≥ 21 days, ceiling ≥ $10K) with pgvector cosine ranking; top 50 per org.
3. Remaining gates in TS — entity eligibility (entryAdmitsEntity: conservative pattern matching over Grants.gov applicantTypes prose; ambiguous entries do NOT admit) and geography (word-boundary state code + full state name). application_form_supported is deliberately ignored for pass/fail (2026-07-16 manual-first decision — draftability verified by hand for top leads); its failure still lands in rationale.gateFailures. Failed pairs are not stored.
4. Deterministic subscores (scoreMatch, pure, tested): mission fit 30 (similarity 0.45–0.75 → 0–30) · capacity 15 (award 10–75% of revenue = sweet spot) · competition 15 (state-restricted ≫ national) · effort 10 · runway 5 (3–10 weeks ideal). Funder precedent (25pts, live): tiers of repeated giving into the org's state from the 990-PF index (1→8, 3→15, 5→20, 10→25); federal/no-data funders score 0 — absence of evidence ranks below presence. Easy win = total ≥ 65 AND precedent ≥ 12 (the plan's precedent floor). subscores jsonb keeps the full breakdown for reweighting.
5. Upsert + hero — pair-keyed upsert that never touches review fields (a human's reject stands even when scores move); serverAssignHeroMatch marks the org's top non-rejected gate-passing match.

First live run (2026-07-16)

64 orgs × top-50 grants → 3,200 matches, 0 gate failures (corpus was pre-filtered to nonprofit-eligible, federal = geography-unrestricted), 0 easy wins, max 39/75. That's the system being honest: the current corpus is 200 NIH-dominated federal research grants — wrong pond for $100K–$5M NH service nonprofits (similarity ceiling ~0.58). The engine's next real gains are corpus-side: NH state agency sources, 990-PF foundation ingestion, full Grants.gov detail backlog, real effort estimates.

v2 (2026-07-16, same day): 990-PF precedent + lead-quality gates

• ingest990pf (monthly, 0 6 2 * *): IRS BMF eo_nh.csv discovers NH private foundations (PF_FILING_REQ_CD=1) → e-file index CSVs select their latest 990-PF filings → batch ZIPs (capped 4/run, most-hits-first, deferred logged) → grants-paid rows into funder_grants → funders with ≥2 NH grants synthesize a rolling grants row (source irs_990pf, funder_ein set, null close date) that flows through embed + match like any RFP.
• Rolling (null) deadlines now PASS the runway gate and score 2/5 runway.
• Candidate orgs exclude NTEE T* grantmakers, and matches self-gate by funder EIN plus normalized-name fallback — the first precedent run's top "leads" were foundations matched to themselves (NHDOJ registers grantmakers as charities; several lack resolved EINs).
• First full run: 747 NH foundations, 21 batches (~6.5GB processed, 1 deferred), 2,766+ grants-paid rows, 123 synthesized foundation grants → 89 easy wins across 27 orgs, top hero 69/100 with real matches like AIDS Response-Seacoast → Foundation for Seacoast Health. Coverage grows nightly as enrichment drains the org backlog (56 candidate orgs of ~6.2K NH registrants so far).

v3 (2026-07-16): federal precedent via USASpending

Funder precedent now covers federal grants at the program (ALN/CFDA) level — the criterion was always valid for federal funders; only the data was missing. Ingest captures each opportunity's ALN numbers (grants.alns); the nightly federalPrecedent workflow (04:45) queries USASpending's award search (free, official, no key) for grant awards to NH recipients over a 3-year lookback per distinct program, stamping program_state_award_count + sample recipients onto every open grant carrying that ALN (multi-ALN grants keep the highest count). Match retrieval feeds it through the same funderStateGrantCount input and 25-point tiers foundations use. The match detail page shows the recipients table ("Recent program awards to NH recipients") with an explicit caution: distinguish one incumbent's renewals from genuine spread across orgs.

Ingest refresh also now rotates oldest-verified-first (serverMapGrantVerification) — the plain-Set version re-fetched the same head of the search results every pass, which had left 365 of 565 grants without ALNs.

First sweep: 156 distinct programs, 85 with NH history, 468/564 open federal grants carrying precedent; first federal easy-wins appeared (score 66, precedent 25/25, real Aug-24 deadline).