7e26de1b6c
Close the D3 loop. The forecast now learns from the team's own estimate-vs-actual history (the working time #5 infers from git events) instead of guessing forever. core (@commitea/core/calibration-v0): - fitCalibration(samples): lognormal fit on log(actual/estimate) — global + per-bucket (once a bucket clears the floor) + per-person bias. coldStart until n >= 20 closed-with-estimate issues. - calibrationSamples(): pull those samples from the closed backlog via lifecycle inference (estimate label vs inferred actualWorkingDays). - toDurationModel(): project the fit to the params forecast consumes. - forecast() gains options.model: when past cold-start, fitted params drive the sim (per bucket, global fallback); otherwise the code priors do. Forecast.coldStart now reflects the model. nearestBucket extracted + exported. app: - AppShell fits calibration once from the reconciled backlog, feeds the model into forecastBacklog (cone), and drives the Calibration screen + Runway header. - Focus cone footer, Runway note, and Calibration screen now say cold-start (N/20) vs calibrated (on N closed) from real data; Calibration scatter / bucket bias / per-person all fitted, degrading honestly on a thin dataset. Known refinement: same-day closes yield 0 working-day actuals (day-granular) and are excluded, so a fast-moving repo can sit at n=0 — honest, but a fractional (hours-based) actual would let those count. Per-person uses gitea login, not display name, until the person map lands. Note: also re-lands #10 (Monte Carlo) and #5 (lifecycle) which merged into their stacked base branches but never propagated to main (stacked-merge trap); this branch is cut from main and carries all three so main is whole again. Verified: 74 core tests green (9 calibration + 2 forecast-switch added), desktop typecheck clean, 14 fixture e2e green, live spec asserts the real cold-start calibration surface (Runway note + screen badge fitted from actuals). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
51 lines
3.0 KiB
TypeScript
51 lines
3.0 KiB
TypeScript
import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
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import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
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import { _electron as electron, expect, test } from '@playwright/test'
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const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
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const MAIN = join(here, '..', 'out', 'main', 'index.js')
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// Opt-in only (GITEA_LIVE=1). Launches WITHOUT COMMITEA_E2E so the main process
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// reconciles the real repo via .env.local, and asserts real data renders.
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test.describe('live backlog', () => {
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test('The pot + Focus render real gitea data', async () => {
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test.skip(!process.env.GITEA_LIVE, 'GITEA_LIVE not set — opt-in live test')
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const app = await electron.launch({ args: [MAIN], env: { ...process.env } })
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const win = await app.firstWindow()
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await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
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const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
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// The pot — waiting here also lets the reconcile (issues + deps + timelines) complete
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await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'The pot' }).click()
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await expect(win.getByText('Gitea read client behind an injected fetch')).toBeVisible({ timeout: 20000 })
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// Lifecycle inference (#5): columns come from the real event stream — merged
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// work lands in Done, so that column is non-empty (proves timelines drove it,
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// not the three-column fallback which would still show closed issues in Done).
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await expect(win.getByText('Done', { exact: true })).toBeVisible()
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await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-board.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
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// Back to Focus — the deterministic scheduler's real Now/Next/Later. These
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// rationale phrases are emitted only by the scheduler, never by the demo fixture.
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await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Morning service' }).click()
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await expect(win.getByText(/on the critical path|unblocks #|waits on #|· ready/).first()).toBeVisible()
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// Real Monte Carlo cone — this headline is emitted only for real forecasts.
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await expect(win.getByText(/80% of the open backlog lands by/)).toBeVisible()
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await expect(win.getByText(/Cold-start priors/)).toBeVisible()
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await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-focus.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
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// Runway → calibration surface, fitted from real closed-issue actuals (#1).
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// With <20 estimated closes the repo is honestly cold-start; the note proves
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// the fit ran on real data, not the fixture's "calibrated on 27".
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await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Runway' }).click()
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await expect(
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win.getByText(/cold-start priors · \d+\/20 closed issues estimated|calibrated on \d+ closed/),
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).toBeVisible()
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await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Full report' }).click()
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await expect(win.getByText(/cold-start · \d+\/20|curve active · n ≥ 20/)).toBeVisible()
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await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-calibration.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
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await app.close()
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})
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})
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