Files
commitea/apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/focus-screen.tsx
Croissant Le Doux 7e26de1b6c feat: calibration from closed-issue actuals → forecast flips off cold-start (#1)
Close the D3 loop. The forecast now learns from the team's own estimate-vs-actual
history (the working time #5 infers from git events) instead of guessing forever.

core (@commitea/core/calibration-v0):
- fitCalibration(samples): lognormal fit on log(actual/estimate) — global +
  per-bucket (once a bucket clears the floor) + per-person bias. coldStart until
  n >= 20 closed-with-estimate issues.
- calibrationSamples(): pull those samples from the closed backlog via lifecycle
  inference (estimate label vs inferred actualWorkingDays).
- toDurationModel(): project the fit to the params forecast consumes.
- forecast() gains options.model: when past cold-start, fitted params drive the
  sim (per bucket, global fallback); otherwise the code priors do. Forecast.coldStart
  now reflects the model. nearestBucket extracted + exported.

app:
- AppShell fits calibration once from the reconciled backlog, feeds the model into
  forecastBacklog (cone), and drives the Calibration screen + Runway header.
- Focus cone footer, Runway note, and Calibration screen now say cold-start (N/20)
  vs calibrated (on N closed) from real data; Calibration scatter / bucket bias /
  per-person all fitted, degrading honestly on a thin dataset.

Known refinement: same-day closes yield 0 working-day actuals (day-granular) and
are excluded, so a fast-moving repo can sit at n=0 — honest, but a fractional
(hours-based) actual would let those count. Per-person uses gitea login, not
display name, until the person map lands.

Note: also re-lands #10 (Monte Carlo) and #5 (lifecycle) which merged into their
stacked base branches but never propagated to main (stacked-merge trap); this
branch is cut from main and carries all three so main is whole again.

Verified: 74 core tests green (9 calibration + 2 forecast-switch added), desktop
typecheck clean, 14 fixture e2e green, live spec asserts the real cold-start
calibration surface (Runway note + screen badge fitted from actuals).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 19:51:50 -04:00

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import React from 'react'
import { FOCUS, type FocusIssue, type IssueRef, TODAY } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
import { type ForecastView, type FocusView } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
import { BurnUpCone } from '../charts/chart.js'
import { Badge, Button, Card, IconButton, Tag } from '../ui/index.js'
/**
* Morning service — the Now/Next/Later focus cards + the burn-up cone.
* `focus` (scheduler) and `forecast` (Monte Carlo) override the demo fixtures
* when gitea is configured; both fall back to the handoff demo otherwise.
*/
export function FocusScreen({
onOpenIssue,
focus,
forecast,
}: {
onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
focus?: FocusView
forecast?: ForecastView
}) {
const view: FocusView = focus ?? { now: FOCUS.now, next: FOCUS.next, later: FOCUS.later }
const FocusRow = ({ slot, issue, jade }: { slot: string; issue: FocusIssue; jade?: boolean }) => (
<Card
overline={slot}
jade={jade}
title={
<a
href="#"
onClick={(e) => {
e.preventDefault()
onOpenIssue({ id: issue.id, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels })
}}
style={{ color: 'inherit', border: 'none' }}
>
{issue.title}
</a>
}
actions={<IconButton icon="ellipsis" label="More" size="sm" />}
footer={
jade ? (
<>
<Button size="sm">Start</Button>
<Button size="sm" variant="ghost">
Defer
</Button>
<span style={{ marginLeft: 'auto', font: 'var(--text-caption)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>
scheduler pick · critical path
</span>
</>
) : null
}
>
<div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 8, marginBottom: 10, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
<span style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>#{issue.id}</span>
{issue.labels.map((l) => (
<Tag key={l} label={l} />
))}
{issue.steeping ? (
<Badge tone="warn" dot>
steeping {issue.steeping}
</Badge>
) : null}
</div>
<p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: 0 }}>{issue.rationale}</p>
</Card>
)
return (
<div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
<header
style={{
borderBottom: 'var(--rule-double)',
paddingBottom: 14,
display: 'flex',
alignItems: 'baseline',
justifyContent: 'space-between',
gap: 12,
}}
>
<div>
<h1 style={{ font: 'var(--text-display)', color: 'var(--ink-1)', margin: 0 }}>Morning service</h1>
<p style={{ font: 'var(--text-data)', color: 'var(--ink-3)', margin: '6px 0 0', whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>
{TODAY} · reconcile 3.2s
</p>
</div>
<Badge tone="ok" dot>
ahead of forecast
</Badge>
</header>
<div style={{ display: 'grid', gridTemplateColumns: '1.4fr 1fr 1fr', gap: 14, alignItems: 'start' }}>
{view.now ? <FocusRow slot="Now" issue={view.now} jade /> : null}
{view.next ? <FocusRow slot="Next" issue={view.next} /> : null}
{view.later ? <FocusRow slot="Later" issue={view.later} /> : null}
</div>
<Card
overline={forecast ? 'Backlog · open scope' : 'Milestone · Beta'}
title={
forecast ? (
<>80% of the open backlog lands by <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>{forecast.rangeLabel}</span></>
) : (
<>80% this lands <span style={{ whiteSpace: 'nowrap' }}>Mar 312</span></>
)
}
actions={<IconButton icon="chart-line" label="Open runway" size="sm" />}
>
<BurnUpCone data={forecast?.cone} />
<p style={{ font: 'var(--text-agent)', color: 'var(--ink-2)', margin: '10px 0 0' }}>
{forecast
? forecast.coldStart
? `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope. Cold-start priors — ${forecast.calibratedN}/20 estimated closes so far; the cone tightens as the team closes work.`
: `${forecast.scope} open ${forecast.scope === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} in scope, calibrated on ${forecast.calibratedN} closed ${forecast.calibratedN === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} of your own.`
: 'The cone has narrowed since Friday. Im quietly pleased.'}
</p>
</Card>
</div>
)
}