The cold-start surface showed "N/20 closed issues estimated", implying you're
just (20−N) closes away. But calibrationSamples silently drops closed+estimated
issues that closed in 0 working days (same-day closes) — real closes that
structurally can't calibrate. On this repo that's 10 of 24 closes hidden: the
note read 14/20 as if 6 away, when a third of the history will never count.
- core: `calibrationCoverage(issues, timelines, asOf)` → { candidates, usable,
excludedSameDay }, counting the silently-excluded same-day closes. Pure, tested.
- surface it: CalibrationData gains `excludedSameDay`; backlogCalibration returns
the coverage; the Runway note and the Calibration screen now say "… · N same-day
closes can't calibrate" so the thin sample is explained, not just reported.
Verified on christian/commitea: closed=24, usable=14, excludedSameDay=10.
131 core green (incl. new coverage test); core + desktop typecheck; 14 fixture e2e.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
