feat(scoring): v4 — peer precedent, mission-fit floor, LLM match judge

Fixes the federal mismatch class (boys' camp × NIH research center):

- Peer precedent: federalPrecedent paginates USASpending (≤500 awards/
  program) and name-matches every recipient against primary-ICP NH
  registry orgs (shared normalizeOrgNameForMatching, also used by the
  self-match gate). The 25-pt precedent tiers now key off
  program_state_peer_award_count — Dartmouth renewals and SBIR LLCs no
  longer grant precedent to community nonprofits. Raw count + peer-
  annotated award list stay as review evidence (peer badges, peers-first).
- Mission-fit floor (12/30, grants_gov only): below it a match is stored
  with fit_viable=false and hidden from the pending queue, hero selection,
  and easy-win. Foundation-synthesized grants exempt (generic synopses).
- Mission-fit judge live (judgeMatches, 06:15, 200/night best-first):
  JUDGE_MODEL reads the synopsis against the org profile with an explicit
  ignore-eligibility-breadth instruction; graded verdict with required
  citations; deterministic verdict→points map (27/18/8/0) sets missionFit,
  total, easy-win, and viability. Verdicts survive nightly re-scores via
  an upsert splice and re-enter the judge queue when the org profile is
  re-researched (org_profiles.updated_at).

First sweep: 81/149 programs have NH history, only 6 have peer history;
queue-head judging zeroes the research-mechanism garbage (mismatch) while
surfacing genuine strong fits.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

packages/outreach-core/src/matches/scoring.ts

@@ -39,12 +39,15 @@ export interface ScoreMatchInput {
   readonly now: Date;
   /**
    * Historical grants this funder has paid to recipients in the org's
-   * state (from the 990-PF index). Null = no precedent data for this
-   * grant's funder (e.g. federal agencies) — scores 0, not neutral: the
-   * plan weights precedent as the strongest single predictor, and absence
-   * of evidence should rank below presence.
+   * state (990-PF index for foundations; USASpending PEER award count for
+   * federal programs — recipients name-matched to primary-ICP NH orgs).
+   * Null = no precedent data — scores 0, not neutral: the plan weights
+   * precedent as the strongest single predictor, and absence of evidence
+   * should rank below presence.
    */
   readonly funderStateGrantCount: number | null;
+  /** Grant source (`grants.source`) — drives the source-aware fit floor. */
+  readonly grantSource: string;
 }
 
 export const ACHIEVABLE_MAX_SCORE = 100;
@@ -57,6 +60,18 @@ export const ACHIEVABLE_MAX_SCORE = 100;
 export const EASY_WIN_THRESHOLD = 65;
 export const EASY_WIN_MIN_PRECEDENT = 12;
 
+/**
+ * Mission-fit floor (federal RFPs only): below 12/30 (≈ cosine 0.57) the
+ * match is stored but NOT review-viable — non-mission subscores sum to 50,
+ * so without a floor a boys' camp scores 60 on an NIH obesity-research
+ * center grant purely on precedent + capacity. Foundation-synthesized
+ * grants are exempt: their synopses are generic by construction ("grants
+ * for NH nonprofits"), so embedding fit carries no signal there and the
+ * precedent evidence IS the case for the match.
+ */
+export const MISSION_FIT_VIABLE_MIN = 12;
+const FIT_FLOOR_SOURCES: ReadonlySet<string> = new Set(['grants_gov']);
+
 /** Similarity below this scores 0 fit; above the ceiling scores full fit. */
 const SIMILARITY_FLOOR = 0.45;
 const SIMILARITY_CEILING = 0.75;
@@ -154,6 +169,13 @@ export interface ScoredMatch {
   readonly totalScore: number;
   readonly subscores: MatchSubscores;
   readonly easyWin: boolean;
+  /**
+   * False when mission fit is below the source-aware floor — the match is
+   * recorded (audit trail, re-scoring continuity) but hidden from the
+   * pending review queue. The LLM match judge may later override in
+   * either direction.
+   */
+  readonly fitViable: boolean;
 }
 
 export function scoreMatch(input: ScoreMatchInput): ScoredMatch {
@@ -174,11 +196,17 @@ export function scoreMatch(input: ScoreMatchInput): ScoredMatch {
     subscores.runway +
     subscores.funderPrecedent;
 
+  const fitViable =
+    !FIT_FLOOR_SOURCES.has(input.grantSource) ||
+    subscores.missionFit >= MISSION_FIT_VIABLE_MIN;
+
   return {
     totalScore,
     subscores,
     easyWin:
+      fitViable &&
       totalScore >= EASY_WIN_THRESHOLD &&
       subscores.funderPrecedent >= EASY_WIN_MIN_PRECEDENT,
+    fitViable,
   };
 }