feat(scoring): federal funder precedent via USASpending (ALN-level)

Precedent was always a valid criterion for federal grants — the index
just didn't cover them. Now: ingest captures ALN/CFDA numbers from
fetchOpportunity (grants.alns); nightly federalPrecedent workflow
(04:45) queries USASpending award search per distinct program (free
official API, 3-year NH lookback) and stamps program_state_award_count
+ sample recipients onto open grants (multi-ALN keeps highest). Match
retrieval feeds the same funderStateGrantCount input and 25-point tiers
foundations use; detail page shows the recipients-evidence table with
an incumbent-renewal caution.

Also: detail refresh now rotates oldest-verified-first
(serverMapGrantVerification) — the Set-based partition re-fetched the
same 200 every pass, leaving 365/565 grants ALN-less.

Live: 564/564 grants ALN-tagged, 156 programs swept, 85 with NH
history, 468 grants carrying precedent, first federal easy-wins (66pts,
25/25 precedent, Aug-24 deadline). 158 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/outreach-review/app/routes/matches.$matchId.tsx

@@ -290,11 +290,15 @@ export default function MatchDetail({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
       {nhHistory.length > 0 && (
         <section className="rounded border p-4">
           <h2 className="mb-1 text-lg font-semibold">
-            Funder giving history (from 990-PF filings)
+            {grant.source === 'irs_990pf'
+              ? 'Funder giving history (from 990-PF filings)'
+              : 'Recent program awards to NH recipients (USASpending)'}
           </h2>
           <p className="mb-3 text-sm text-gray-600">
-            The concrete evidence behind the precedent score — who this
-            funder actually paid, sorted in-state first.
+            The concrete evidence behind the precedent score —{' '}
+            {grant.source === 'irs_990pf'
+              ? 'who this funder actually paid, sorted in-state first.'
+              : 'who this federal program actually funded in NH recently. Watch for one incumbent recapturing renewals vs. genuine spread across orgs.'}
           </p>
           <table className="w-full text-sm">
             <thead>

apps/outreach-worker/src/main.ts

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ import pg from 'pg';
 import { setEmbedGrantsDeps } from './workflows/embed-grants.js';
 import { setEnrichOrgsDeps } from './workflows/enrich-orgs.js';
 import { setExpireGrantsDeps } from './workflows/expire-grants.js';
+import { setFederalPrecedentDeps } from './workflows/federal-precedent.js';
 import { setIngestGrantsDeps } from './workflows/ingest-grants.js';
 import { setIngest990pfDeps } from './workflows/ingest-990pf.js';
 import { setIngestNhdojOrgsDeps } from './workflows/ingest-nhdoj-orgs.js';
@@ -71,6 +72,7 @@ async function main() {
   setEmbedGrantsDeps({ db });
   setMatchGrantsDeps({ db });
   setIngest990pfDeps({ db });
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps({ db });
 
   DBOS.setConfig({
     name: 'helmdocs-outreach-worker',

apps/outreach-worker/src/run-once.ts

@@ -28,6 +28,10 @@ import {
   runExpireGrantsNow,
   setExpireGrantsDeps,
 } from './workflows/expire-grants.js';
+import {
+  runFederalPrecedentNow,
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps,
+} from './workflows/federal-precedent.js';
 import {
   runIngestGrantsNow,
   setIngestGrantsDeps,
@@ -58,6 +62,7 @@ const RUNNERS: Record<string, () => Promise<void>> = {
   embedGrants: runEmbedGrantsNow,
   matchGrants: runMatchGrantsNow,
   ingest990pf: runIngest990PfNow,
+  federalPrecedent: runFederalPrecedentNow,
 };
 
 const FIRST_RUN_ORDER = [
@@ -67,6 +72,7 @@ const FIRST_RUN_ORDER = [
   'expireGrants',
   'enrichOrgs',
   'ingest990pf',
+  'federalPrecedent',
   'embedGrants',
   'matchGrants',
 ];
@@ -106,6 +112,7 @@ async function main() {
   setEmbedGrantsDeps({ db });
   setMatchGrantsDeps({ db });
   setIngest990pfDeps({ db });
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps({ db });
 
   DBOS.setConfig({
     name: 'helmdocs-outreach-worker',

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/client.ts

@@ -82,6 +82,11 @@ export interface GrantsGovOpportunityDetail {
     readonly agencyCode?: string | null;
   } | null;
   readonly synopsis: GrantsGovSynopsis | null;
+  /** Assistance Listing (CFDA) entries, e.g. [{ cfdaNumber: '93.243' }]. */
+  readonly cfdas?: ReadonlyArray<{
+    readonly cfdaNumber?: string | null;
+    readonly programTitle?: string | null;
+  }> | null;
 }
 
 interface GrantsGovDetailResponseEnvelope {

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/normalize.test.ts

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import {
   searchHitFixture,
 } from '#~/sources/grants-gov/fixtures.js';
 import {
+  normalizeAlns,
   normalizeApplicantTypes,
   normalizeGrantsGovOpportunity,
   parseCount,
@@ -232,3 +233,23 @@ describe('normalizeApplicantTypes', () => {
     expect(normalizeApplicantTypes([])).toBeNull();
   });
 });
+
+describe('normalizeAlns', () => {
+  it('extracts distinct valid ALN numbers', () => {
+    expect(
+      normalizeAlns([
+        { cfdaNumber: '93.243' },
+        { cfdaNumber: ' 93.243 ' },
+        { cfdaNumber: '16.888' },
+        { cfdaNumber: 'garbage' },
+        { cfdaNumber: null },
+      ]),
+    ).toEqual(['93.243', '16.888']);
+  });
+
+  it('returns null for empty or missing lists', () => {
+    expect(normalizeAlns(null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(normalizeAlns([])).toBeNull();
+    expect(normalizeAlns([{ cfdaNumber: 'x' }])).toBeNull();
+  });
+});

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/normalize.ts

@@ -98,6 +98,24 @@ export function stripHtml(html: string | null | undefined): string | null {
 }
 
 /** Extracts non-empty eligibility descriptions from `synopsis.applicantTypes`. */
+/** Distinct, trimmed ALN/CFDA numbers ('93.243') from the detail's cfdas list. */
+export function normalizeAlns(
+  cfdas:
+    | ReadonlyArray<{ readonly cfdaNumber?: string | null }>
+    | null
+    | undefined,
+): string[] | null {
+  if (cfdas == null) return null;
+  const nums = [
+    ...new Set(
+      cfdas
+        .map((c) => c.cfdaNumber?.trim())
+        .filter((v): v is string => v != null && /^\d{2}\.\d{3}$/.test(v)),
+    ),
+  ];
+  return nums.length > 0 ? nums : null;
+}
+
 export function normalizeApplicantTypes(
   applicantTypes: ReadonlyArray<GrantsGovApplicantType> | null | undefined,
 ): string[] | null {
@@ -162,6 +180,7 @@ export function normalizeGrantsGovOpportunity(
     title: detail.opportunityTitle ?? hit.title,
     funder: resolveFunder(hit, detail),
     synopsis: stripHtml(synopsis?.synopsisDesc),
+    alns: normalizeAlns(detail.cfdas),
     eligibilityEntityTypes: normalizeApplicantTypes(
       synopsis?.applicantTypes,
     ),

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/usaspending/client.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+/**
+ * USASpending.gov award-search client — the federal analog of the 990-PF
+ * grants-paid index. Official API, free, no key.
+ * Docs: https://api.usaspending.gov/docs/endpoints
+ */
+
+const SEARCH_URL =
+  'https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_by_award/';
+
+/** Grant-shaped assistance award type codes (block/formula/project/coop). */
+const GRANT_AWARD_TYPE_CODES = ['02', '03', '04', '05'];
+
+const DEFAULT_POLITENESS_DELAY_MS = 300;
+
+export interface ProgramStateAwardSample {
+  readonly recipientName: string;
+  readonly amount: number | null;
+  readonly startDate: string | null;
+}
+
+export interface ProgramStateAwards {
+  readonly aln: string;
+  readonly awardCount: number;
+  readonly samples: ProgramStateAwardSample[];
+}
+
+export interface UsaSpendingClientOptions {
+  readonly fetchImpl?: typeof fetch;
+  readonly politenessDelayMs?: number;
+}
+
+function wait(ms: number): Promise<void> {
+  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
+}
+
+/**
+ * Recent grant awards under one Assistance Listing to recipients in one
+ * state: total count plus a handful of sample recipients (review-page
+ * evidence — lets a human spot "one incumbent's renewals" vs "spread
+ * across orgs like ours").
+ */
+export async function fetchProgramStateAwards(
+  aln: string,
+  state: string,
+  { startDate, endDate }: { startDate: string; endDate: string },
+  options: UsaSpendingClientOptions = {},
+): Promise<ProgramStateAwards> {
+  const fetchImpl = options.fetchImpl ?? fetch;
+
+  const res = await fetchImpl(SEARCH_URL, {
+    method: 'POST',
+    headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+    body: JSON.stringify({
+      filters: {
+        award_type_codes: GRANT_AWARD_TYPE_CODES,
+        recipient_locations: [{ country: 'USA', state }],
+        time_period: [{ start_date: startDate, end_date: endDate }],
+        program_numbers: [aln],
+      },
+      fields: ['Award ID', 'Recipient Name', 'Award Amount', 'Start Date'],
+      limit: 10,
+      page: 1,
+    }),
+  });
+  if (!res.ok) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `USASpending search failed for ALN ${aln} (${state}): ${res.status} ${res.statusText}`,
+    );
+  }
+
+  const body = (await res.json()) as {
+    results?: Array<{
+      'Recipient Name'?: string | null;
+      'Award Amount'?: number | null;
+      'Start Date'?: string | null;
+    }>;
+    page_metadata?: { total?: number | null };
+  };
+
+  await wait(options.politenessDelayMs ?? DEFAULT_POLITENESS_DELAY_MS);
+
+  const samples: ProgramStateAwardSample[] = (body.results ?? []).map((r) => ({
+    recipientName: r['Recipient Name'] ?? 'Unknown recipient',
+    amount: r['Award Amount'] == null ? null : Math.round(r['Award Amount']),
+    startDate: r['Start Date'] ?? null,
+  }));
+
+  return {
+    aln,
+    awardCount: body.page_metadata?.total ?? samples.length,
+    samples,
+  };
+}

apps/outreach-worker/src/workflows/federal-precedent.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
+/**
+ * Nightly federal-precedent workflow — USASpending award history per
+ * Assistance Listing (ALN/CFDA), the federal analog of the 990-PF index.
+ *
+ * For each distinct ALN across open federal grants: count grant awards to
+ * recipients in the target state over the last ~3 fiscal years, stamp the
+ * count + sample recipients onto every open grant carrying that ALN.
+ * Match retrieval feeds the count into the same 25-point precedent
+ * subscore foundations use — "this program funded N NH orgs recently" and
+ * "this foundation funded N NH orgs recently" are the same signal.
+ *
+ * Runs at 04:45 — after ingest (03:00, which refreshes ALNs) and before
+ * matching (05:15). Registration follows `ingest-grants.ts` exactly.
+ */
+import { DBOS, SchedulerMode } from '@dbos-inc/dbos-sdk';
+import type { schema } from '@novelpad/outreach-core';
+import {
+  serverListOpenFederalAlns,
+  serverResetFederalPrecedent,
+  serverSetFederalPrecedent,
+} from '@novelpad/outreach-core/server';
+import type { NodePgDatabase } from 'drizzle-orm/node-postgres';
+
+import {
+  fetchProgramStateAwards,
+  type ProgramStateAwards,
+} from '#~/sources/usaspending/client.js';
+
+export type OutreachDb = NodePgDatabase<typeof schema>;
+
+const RECIPIENT_STATE = 'NH';
+/** ~3 fiscal years of history — recent enough to predict, long enough to see a pattern. */
+const LOOKBACK_YEARS = 3;
+
+export interface FederalPrecedentDeps {
+  readonly db: OutreachDb;
+}
+
+let registeredDeps: FederalPrecedentDeps | null = null;
+
+export function setFederalPrecedentDeps(deps: FederalPrecedentDeps): void {
+  registeredDeps = deps;
+}
+
+function getFederalPrecedentDeps(): FederalPrecedentDeps {
+  if (registeredDeps == null) {
+    throw new Error(
+      'FederalPrecedentDeps not registered. Call setFederalPrecedentDeps() before DBOS.launch().',
+    );
+  }
+  return registeredDeps;
+}
+
+async function listAlns(db: OutreachDb): Promise<string[]> {
+  return serverListOpenFederalAlns(db);
+}
+const listAlnsStep = DBOS.registerStep(listAlns, {
+  name: 'listOpenFederalAlns',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function fetchAlnAwards(
+  aln: string,
+  startDate: string,
+  endDate: string,
+): Promise<ProgramStateAwards> {
+  return fetchProgramStateAwards(aln, RECIPIENT_STATE, {
+    startDate,
+    endDate,
+  });
+}
+const fetchAlnAwardsStep = DBOS.registerStep(fetchAlnAwards, {
+  name: 'fetchAlnStateAwards',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function applyPrecedent(
+  db: OutreachDb,
+  precedent: ProgramStateAwards,
+): Promise<void> {
+  await serverSetFederalPrecedent(db, {
+    aln: precedent.aln,
+    awardCount: precedent.awardCount,
+    samples: precedent.samples,
+  });
+}
+const applyPrecedentStep = DBOS.registerStep(applyPrecedent, {
+  name: 'applyFederalPrecedent',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function resetPrecedent(db: OutreachDb): Promise<void> {
+  await serverResetFederalPrecedent(db);
+}
+const resetPrecedentStep = DBOS.registerStep(resetPrecedent, {
+  name: 'resetFederalPrecedent',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function runFederalPrecedent(): Promise<void> {
+  const { db } = getFederalPrecedentDeps();
+
+  const alns = await listAlnsStep(db);
+  if (alns.length === 0) {
+    console.log(
+      '[federal-precedent] no open federal grants carry ALNs yet (ingest refresh pending?)',
+    );
+    return;
+  }
+
+  const end = new Date();
+  const start = new Date(end);
+  start.setFullYear(start.getFullYear() - LOOKBACK_YEARS);
+  const startDate = start.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  const endDate = end.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+
+  await resetPrecedentStep(db);
+
+  let programsWithHistory = 0;
+  let failed = 0;
+  for (const aln of alns) {
+    try {
+      const precedent = await fetchAlnAwardsStep(aln, startDate, endDate);
+      if (precedent.awardCount > 0) {
+        await applyPrecedentStep(db, precedent);
+        programsWithHistory++;
+      }
+    } catch (err) {
+      failed++;
+      console.error(`[federal-precedent] ALN ${aln} failed:`, err);
+    }
+  }
+
+  console.log(
+    `[federal-precedent] programs=${alns.length} withNhHistory=${programsWithHistory} failed=${failed}`,
+  );
+  if (failed > 0 && failed / alns.length > 0.2) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `[federal-precedent] systemic failure: ${failed}/${alns.length} programs failed`,
+    );
+  }
+}
+
+const g = globalThis as unknown as {
+  __outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered?: boolean;
+  __outreachFederalPrecedentHandle?: (
+    scheduledTime: Date,
+    startedAt: Date,
+  ) => Promise<void>;
+};
+
+if (!g.__outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered) {
+  g.__outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered = true;
+
+  const federalPrecedent = async (_scheduledTime: Date, _startedAt: Date) => {
+    try {
+      await runFederalPrecedent();
+    } catch (err) {
+      console.error('[federal-precedent] pass failed:', err);
+      throw err;
+    }
+  };
+
+  // Must be registered as BOTH a workflow and a scheduled function,
+  // referencing the same function object — see ingest-grants.ts.
+  g.__outreachFederalPrecedentHandle = DBOS.registerWorkflow(federalPrecedent, {
+    name: 'federalPrecedent',
+  });
+  DBOS.registerScheduled(federalPrecedent, {
+    crontab: '45 4 * * *',
+    name: 'federalPrecedent',
+    mode: SchedulerMode.ExactlyOncePerInterval,
+  });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Starts one durable run of this workflow immediately through DBOS —
+ * the exact production path (workflow + checkpointed steps), used by
+ * `run-once.ts` for supervised/manual passes. Requires deps injected and
+ * `DBOS.launch()` completed.
+ */
+export function runFederalPrecedentNow(): Promise<void> {
+  const handle = g.__outreachFederalPrecedentHandle;
+  if (handle == null) {
+    throw new Error(
+      'federalPrecedent is not registered; was this module imported before DBOS.launch()?',
+    );
+  }
+  return handle(new Date(), new Date());
+}

apps/outreach-worker/src/workflows/ingest-grants.ts

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import { DBOS, SchedulerMode } from '@dbos-inc/dbos-sdk';
 import type { schema } from '@novelpad/outreach-core';
 import {
   serverInsertGrants,
-  serverListGrantSourceUrls,
+  serverMapGrantVerification,
   type NewGrantInput,
 } from '@novelpad/outreach-core/server';
 import type { NodePgDatabase } from 'drizzle-orm/node-postgres';
@@ -100,11 +100,19 @@ async function fetchGrantDetails(
   // hits.slice(0, cap) re-fetched the same head of the search results
   // every night and never drained the backlog. Known opportunities fill
   // any remaining budget (refreshing close dates / lastVerifiedAt).
-  const known = await serverListGrantSourceUrls(db, 'grants_gov');
-  const isKnown = (hit: GrantsGovSearchHit) =>
-    known.has(`https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/${hit.id}`);
-  const fresh = hits.filter((h) => !isKnown(h));
-  const refresh = hits.filter(isKnown);
+  const known = await serverMapGrantVerification(db, 'grants_gov');
+  const urlOf = (hit: GrantsGovSearchHit) =>
+    `https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/${hit.id}`;
+  const fresh = hits.filter((h) => !known.has(urlOf(h)));
+  // Oldest-verified first so refreshes rotate through the whole corpus
+  // instead of re-fetching the same head of the search results.
+  const refresh = hits
+    .filter((h) => known.has(urlOf(h)))
+    .sort(
+      (a, b) =>
+        (known.get(urlOf(a))?.getTime() ?? 0) -
+        (known.get(urlOf(b))?.getTime() ?? 0),
+    );
   const toFetch = [...fresh, ...refresh].slice(0, DETAIL_FETCH_CAP);
   console.log(
     `[ingest-grants] detail budget ${DETAIL_FETCH_CAP}: ${Math.min(fresh.length, DETAIL_FETCH_CAP)} new, ${Math.max(0, Math.min(DETAIL_FETCH_CAP - fresh.length, refresh.length))} refresh, backlog remaining ${Math.max(0, fresh.length - DETAIL_FETCH_CAP)}`,

docs/features/scoring.md

@@ -21,3 +21,11 @@ Nightly `matchGrants` workflow (05:15 UTC, after embeddings) — the plan's "SQL
 - Rolling (null) deadlines now PASS the runway gate and score 2/5 runway.
 - Candidate orgs exclude NTEE `T*` grantmakers, and matches self-gate by funder EIN plus normalized-name fallback — the first precedent run's top "leads" were foundations matched to themselves (NHDOJ registers grantmakers as charities; several lack resolved EINs).
 - First full run: 747 NH foundations, 21 batches (~6.5GB processed, 1 deferred), 2,766+ grants-paid rows, 123 synthesized foundation grants → **89 easy wins across 27 orgs**, top hero 69/100 with real matches like AIDS Response-Seacoast → Foundation for Seacoast Health. Coverage grows nightly as enrichment drains the org backlog (56 candidate orgs of ~6.2K NH registrants so far).
+
+## v3 (2026-07-16): federal precedent via USASpending
+
+Funder precedent now covers federal grants at the **program (ALN/CFDA) level** — the criterion was always valid for federal funders; only the data was missing. Ingest captures each opportunity's ALN numbers (`grants.alns`); the nightly `federalPrecedent` workflow (04:45) queries USASpending's award search (free, official, no key) for grant awards to NH recipients over a 3-year lookback per distinct program, stamping `program_state_award_count` + sample recipients onto every open grant carrying that ALN (multi-ALN grants keep the highest count). Match retrieval feeds it through the same `funderStateGrantCount` input and 25-point tiers foundations use. The match detail page shows the recipients table ("Recent program awards to NH recipients") with an explicit caution: distinguish one incumbent's renewals from genuine spread across orgs.
+
+Ingest refresh also now rotates oldest-verified-first (`serverMapGrantVerification`) — the plain-Set version re-fetched the same head of the search results every pass, which had left 365 of 565 grants without ALNs.
+
+First sweep: 156 distinct programs, 85 with NH history, 468/564 open federal grants carrying precedent; first federal easy-wins appeared (score 66, precedent 25/25, real Aug-24 deadline).

packages/outreach-core/drizzle/server/1784257140_federal-precedent.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+ALTER TABLE "grants" ADD COLUMN "alns" text[];--> statement-breakpoint
+ALTER TABLE "grants" ADD COLUMN "program_state_award_count" integer;--> statement-breakpoint
+ALTER TABLE "grants" ADD COLUMN "program_state_awards" jsonb;

packages/outreach-core/drizzle/server/meta/_journal.json

@@ -29,6 +29,13 @@
       "when": 1784236406321,
       "tag": "1784236406_funder-precedent-index",
       "breakpoints": true
+    },
+    {
+      "idx": 4,
+      "version": "7",
+      "when": 1784257140142,
+      "tag": "1784257140_federal-precedent",
+      "breakpoints": true
     }
   ]
 }

packages/outreach-core/src/db/schema.ts

@@ -143,6 +143,16 @@ export const grants = pgTable(
     // Links 990-PF-synthesized grants to their foundation for the
     // precedent subscore; null for public-RFP sources.
     funderEin: text('funder_ein'),
+    // Federal Assistance Listing Numbers (CFDA), e.g. ['93.243'] — the
+    // join key into USASpending award history for federal precedent.
+    alns: text('alns').array(),
+    // Denormalized federal precedent: recent awards this grant's
+    // program(s) made to recipients in the target state (USASpending),
+    // refreshed by the federalPrecedent workflow. Null for non-federal
+    // sources and never touched by ingest upserts.
+    programStateAwardCount: integer('program_state_award_count'),
+    // Sample recipients backing the count — review-page evidence.
+    programStateAwards: jsonb('program_state_awards'),
     status: grantStatusEnum('status').notNull().default('open'),
     synopsisEmbedding: vector('synopsis_embedding', { dimensions: 1536 }),
     lastVerifiedAt: timestamp('last_verified_at', { withTimezone: true }),

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/actions/index.server.ts

@@ -2,3 +2,4 @@ export * from './expire-closed-grants.server.js';
 export * from './insert-grants.server.js';
 export * from './set-grant-embeddings.server.js';
 export * from './close-grants-for-funders.server.js';
+export * from './set-federal-precedent.server.js';

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/actions/insert-grants.server.ts

@@ -47,6 +47,8 @@ export async function serverInsertGrants(
         applicationEffortEstimate: sql`excluded.application_effort_estimate`,
         applicationFormSupported: sql`excluded.application_form_supported`,
         source: sql`excluded.source`,
+        alns: sql`excluded.alns`,
+        funderEin: sql`excluded.funder_ein`,
         status: sql`excluded.status`,
         lastVerifiedAt: sql`excluded.last_verified_at`,
         updatedAt: sql`now()`,

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/actions/set-federal-precedent.server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+import { and, eq, sql } from 'drizzle-orm';
+
+import type { NpOutreachDatabase, NpOutreachTransaction } from '#~/db/db.js';
+import { schema } from '#~/db/db.js';
+
+export interface AlnPrecedent {
+  readonly aln: string;
+  readonly awardCount: number;
+  readonly samples: unknown;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Applies per-program USASpending precedent onto every open federal grant
+ * carrying that ALN. Grants with multiple ALNs keep the HIGHEST count
+ * seen (a grant reachable through any strongly-NH program inherits that
+ * program's precedent), and samples follow whichever count won.
+ */
+export async function serverSetFederalPrecedent(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+  precedent: AlnPrecedent,
+): Promise<void> {
+  await db
+    .update(schema.grants)
+    .set({
+      programStateAwardCount: sql`GREATEST(COALESCE(${schema.grants.programStateAwardCount}, 0), ${precedent.awardCount})`,
+      programStateAwards: sql`CASE
+        WHEN COALESCE(${schema.grants.programStateAwardCount}, 0) <= ${precedent.awardCount}
+        THEN ${JSON.stringify(precedent.samples)}::jsonb
+        ELSE ${schema.grants.programStateAwards}
+      END`,
+      updatedAt: sql`now()`,
+    })
+    .where(
+      and(
+        eq(schema.grants.source, 'grants_gov'),
+        eq(schema.grants.status, 'open'),
+        sql`${precedent.aln} = ANY(${schema.grants.alns})`,
+      ),
+    );
+}
+
+/** Zeroes precedent before a refresh pass so removed programs don't keep stale counts. */
+export async function serverResetFederalPrecedent(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+): Promise<void> {
+  await db
+    .update(schema.grants)
+    .set({ programStateAwardCount: null, programStateAwards: null })
+    .where(eq(schema.grants.source, 'grants_gov'));
+}

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/queries/index.server.ts

@@ -2,3 +2,4 @@ export * from './list-open-grants.server.js';
 export * from './list-grants-needing-embedding.server.js';
 export * from './list-eligible-grants-for-org.server.js';
 export * from './list-grant-source-urls.server.js';
+export * from './list-federal-alns.server.js';

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/queries/list-eligible-grants-for-org.server.ts

@@ -62,12 +62,15 @@ export async function serverListEligibleGrantsForOrg(
       applicationFormSupported: schema.grants.applicationFormSupported,
       funderEin: schema.grants.funderEin,
       similarity: sql<number>`1 - (${schema.grants.synopsisEmbedding} <=> ${vector}::vector)`,
-      funderStateGrantCount: sql<number | null>`(
-        SELECT count(*)::int FROM funder_grants fg
-        JOIN funders f ON fg.funder_id = f.id
-        WHERE f.ein = ${schema.grants.funderEin}
-          AND fg.recipient_state = ${filters.orgState}
-      )`,
+      funderStateGrantCount: sql<number | null>`CASE
+        WHEN ${schema.grants.funderEin} IS NOT NULL THEN (
+          SELECT count(*)::int FROM funder_grants fg
+          JOIN funders f ON fg.funder_id = f.id
+          WHERE f.ein = ${schema.grants.funderEin}
+            AND fg.recipient_state = ${filters.orgState}
+        )
+        ELSE ${schema.grants.programStateAwardCount}
+      END`,
     })
     .from(schema.grants)
     .where(

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/queries/list-federal-alns.server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+import { and, eq, isNotNull, sql } from 'drizzle-orm';
+
+import type { NpOutreachDatabase, NpOutreachTransaction } from '#~/db/db.js';
+import { schema } from '#~/db/db.js';
+
+/**
+ * Distinct ALN (CFDA) numbers across open federal grants — the work list
+ * for the federalPrecedent workflow. A few hundred programs cover the
+ * whole corpus, so precedent is fetched per program, not per grant.
+ */
+export async function serverListOpenFederalAlns(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+): Promise<string[]> {
+  const rows = await db
+    .select({ aln: sql<string>`DISTINCT unnest(${schema.grants.alns})` })
+    .from(schema.grants)
+    .where(
+      and(
+        eq(schema.grants.source, 'grants_gov'),
+        eq(schema.grants.status, 'open'),
+        isNotNull(schema.grants.alns),
+      ),
+    );
+  return rows.map((r) => r.aln).sort();
+}

packages/outreach-core/src/grants/queries/list-grant-source-urls.server.ts

@@ -4,17 +4,30 @@ import type { NpOutreachDatabase, NpOutreachTransaction } from '#~/db/db.js';
 import { schema } from '#~/db/db.js';
 
 /**
- * All source URLs already ingested for one source — lets ingestion spend
- * its per-run detail-fetch budget on NEW opportunities first instead of
- * re-fetching the same head of the search results every night.
+ * Source URL → lastVerifiedAt for everything already ingested from one
+ * source. Ingestion spends its per-run detail budget on NEW opportunities
+ * first, then refreshes KNOWN ones oldest-verified-first — a plain Set
+ * caused the refresh half to re-fetch the same head of the search results
+ * every pass.
  */
+export async function serverMapGrantVerification(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+  source: (typeof schema.grants.$inferSelect)['source'],
+): Promise<Map<string, Date | null>> {
+  const rows = await db
+    .select({
+      sourceUrl: schema.grants.sourceUrl,
+      lastVerifiedAt: schema.grants.lastVerifiedAt,
+    })
+    .from(schema.grants)
+    .where(eq(schema.grants.source, source));
+  return new Map(rows.map((r) => [r.sourceUrl, r.lastVerifiedAt]));
+}
+
+/** @deprecated superseded by serverMapGrantVerification; kept for callers needing only membership. */
 export async function serverListGrantSourceUrls(
   db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
   source: (typeof schema.grants.$inferSelect)['source'],
 ): Promise<Set<string>> {
-  const rows = await db
-    .select({ sourceUrl: schema.grants.sourceUrl })
-    .from(schema.grants)
-    .where(eq(schema.grants.source, source));
-  return new Set(rows.map((r) => r.sourceUrl));
+  return new Set((await serverMapGrantVerification(db, source)).keys());
 }

packages/outreach-core/src/matches/queries/get-match-detail.server.ts

@@ -88,6 +88,7 @@ export async function serverGetMatchDetail(
       grantEligibility: schema.grants.eligibilityEntityTypes,
       grantGeo: schema.grants.geographicScope,
       grantEffort: schema.grants.applicationEffortEstimate,
+      grantProgramAwards: schema.grants.programStateAwards,
     })
     .from(schema.matches)
     .innerJoin(schema.orgs, eq(schema.matches.orgId, schema.orgs.id))
@@ -109,6 +110,23 @@ export async function serverGetMatchDetail(
 
   let funderGivingHistory: MatchDetail['funderGivingHistory'] = [];
   let funderApplicationInfo: unknown = null;
+  if (row.grantFunderEin == null && Array.isArray(row.grantProgramAwards)) {
+    // Federal grants: USASpending program awards fill the same evidence
+    // table (recipient/amount/year) the 990-PF history uses.
+    funderGivingHistory = (
+      row.grantProgramAwards as Array<{
+        recipientName?: string;
+        amount?: number | null;
+        startDate?: string | null;
+      }>
+    ).map((a) => ({
+      recipientName: a.recipientName ?? 'Unknown recipient',
+      recipientCity: null,
+      amount: a.amount ?? null,
+      purpose: null,
+      taxYear: a.startDate != null ? Number(a.startDate.slice(0, 4)) : 0,
+    }));
+  }
   if (row.grantFunderEin != null) {
     const funderRow = await db
       .select({ applicationInfo: schema.funders.applicationInfo })