feat(scoring): federal funder precedent via USASpending (ALN-level)

Precedent was always a valid criterion for federal grants — the index
just didn't cover them. Now: ingest captures ALN/CFDA numbers from
fetchOpportunity (grants.alns); nightly federalPrecedent workflow
(04:45) queries USASpending award search per distinct program (free
official API, 3-year NH lookback) and stamps program_state_award_count
+ sample recipients onto open grants (multi-ALN keeps highest). Match
retrieval feeds the same funderStateGrantCount input and 25-point tiers
foundations use; detail page shows the recipients-evidence table with
an incumbent-renewal caution.

Also: detail refresh now rotates oldest-verified-first
(serverMapGrantVerification) — the Set-based partition re-fetched the
same 200 every pass, leaving 365/565 grants ALN-less.

Live: 564/564 grants ALN-tagged, 156 programs swept, 85 with NH
history, 468 grants carrying precedent, first federal easy-wins (66pts,
25/25 precedent, Aug-24 deadline). 158 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/outreach-review/app/routes/matches.$matchId.tsx

@@ -290,11 +290,15 @@ export default function MatchDetail({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
       {nhHistory.length > 0 && (
         <section className="rounded border p-4">
           <h2 className="mb-1 text-lg font-semibold">
-            Funder giving history (from 990-PF filings)
+            {grant.source === 'irs_990pf'
+              ? 'Funder giving history (from 990-PF filings)'
+              : 'Recent program awards to NH recipients (USASpending)'}
           </h2>
           <p className="mb-3 text-sm text-gray-600">
-            The concrete evidence behind the precedent score — who this
-            funder actually paid, sorted in-state first.
+            The concrete evidence behind the precedent score —{' '}
+            {grant.source === 'irs_990pf'
+              ? 'who this funder actually paid, sorted in-state first.'
+              : 'who this federal program actually funded in NH recently. Watch for one incumbent recapturing renewals vs. genuine spread across orgs.'}
           </p>
           <table className="w-full text-sm">
             <thead>

apps/outreach-worker/src/main.ts

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ import pg from 'pg';
 import { setEmbedGrantsDeps } from './workflows/embed-grants.js';
 import { setEnrichOrgsDeps } from './workflows/enrich-orgs.js';
 import { setExpireGrantsDeps } from './workflows/expire-grants.js';
+import { setFederalPrecedentDeps } from './workflows/federal-precedent.js';
 import { setIngestGrantsDeps } from './workflows/ingest-grants.js';
 import { setIngest990pfDeps } from './workflows/ingest-990pf.js';
 import { setIngestNhdojOrgsDeps } from './workflows/ingest-nhdoj-orgs.js';
@@ -71,6 +72,7 @@ async function main() {
   setEmbedGrantsDeps({ db });
   setMatchGrantsDeps({ db });
   setIngest990pfDeps({ db });
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps({ db });
 
   DBOS.setConfig({
     name: 'helmdocs-outreach-worker',

apps/outreach-worker/src/run-once.ts

@@ -28,6 +28,10 @@ import {
   runExpireGrantsNow,
   setExpireGrantsDeps,
 } from './workflows/expire-grants.js';
+import {
+  runFederalPrecedentNow,
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps,
+} from './workflows/federal-precedent.js';
 import {
   runIngestGrantsNow,
   setIngestGrantsDeps,
@@ -58,6 +62,7 @@ const RUNNERS: Record<string, () => Promise<void>> = {
   embedGrants: runEmbedGrantsNow,
   matchGrants: runMatchGrantsNow,
   ingest990pf: runIngest990PfNow,
+  federalPrecedent: runFederalPrecedentNow,
 };
 
 const FIRST_RUN_ORDER = [
@@ -67,6 +72,7 @@ const FIRST_RUN_ORDER = [
   'expireGrants',
   'enrichOrgs',
   'ingest990pf',
+  'federalPrecedent',
   'embedGrants',
   'matchGrants',
 ];
@@ -106,6 +112,7 @@ async function main() {
   setEmbedGrantsDeps({ db });
   setMatchGrantsDeps({ db });
   setIngest990pfDeps({ db });
+  setFederalPrecedentDeps({ db });
 
   DBOS.setConfig({
     name: 'helmdocs-outreach-worker',

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/client.ts

@@ -82,6 +82,11 @@ export interface GrantsGovOpportunityDetail {
     readonly agencyCode?: string | null;
   } | null;
   readonly synopsis: GrantsGovSynopsis | null;
+  /** Assistance Listing (CFDA) entries, e.g. [{ cfdaNumber: '93.243' }]. */
+  readonly cfdas?: ReadonlyArray<{
+    readonly cfdaNumber?: string | null;
+    readonly programTitle?: string | null;
+  }> | null;
 }
 
 interface GrantsGovDetailResponseEnvelope {

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/normalize.test.ts

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import {
   searchHitFixture,
 } from '#~/sources/grants-gov/fixtures.js';
 import {
+  normalizeAlns,
   normalizeApplicantTypes,
   normalizeGrantsGovOpportunity,
   parseCount,
@@ -232,3 +233,23 @@ describe('normalizeApplicantTypes', () => {
     expect(normalizeApplicantTypes([])).toBeNull();
   });
 });
+
+describe('normalizeAlns', () => {
+  it('extracts distinct valid ALN numbers', () => {
+    expect(
+      normalizeAlns([
+        { cfdaNumber: '93.243' },
+        { cfdaNumber: ' 93.243 ' },
+        { cfdaNumber: '16.888' },
+        { cfdaNumber: 'garbage' },
+        { cfdaNumber: null },
+      ]),
+    ).toEqual(['93.243', '16.888']);
+  });
+
+  it('returns null for empty or missing lists', () => {
+    expect(normalizeAlns(null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(normalizeAlns([])).toBeNull();
+    expect(normalizeAlns([{ cfdaNumber: 'x' }])).toBeNull();
+  });
+});

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/grants-gov/normalize.ts

@@ -98,6 +98,24 @@ export function stripHtml(html: string | null | undefined): string | null {
 }
 
 /** Extracts non-empty eligibility descriptions from `synopsis.applicantTypes`. */
+/** Distinct, trimmed ALN/CFDA numbers ('93.243') from the detail's cfdas list. */
+export function normalizeAlns(
+  cfdas:
+    | ReadonlyArray<{ readonly cfdaNumber?: string | null }>
+    | null
+    | undefined,
+): string[] | null {
+  if (cfdas == null) return null;
+  const nums = [
+    ...new Set(
+      cfdas
+        .map((c) => c.cfdaNumber?.trim())
+        .filter((v): v is string => v != null && /^\d{2}\.\d{3}$/.test(v)),
+    ),
+  ];
+  return nums.length > 0 ? nums : null;
+}
+
 export function normalizeApplicantTypes(
   applicantTypes: ReadonlyArray<GrantsGovApplicantType> | null | undefined,
 ): string[] | null {
@@ -162,6 +180,7 @@ export function normalizeGrantsGovOpportunity(
     title: detail.opportunityTitle ?? hit.title,
     funder: resolveFunder(hit, detail),
     synopsis: stripHtml(synopsis?.synopsisDesc),
+    alns: normalizeAlns(detail.cfdas),
     eligibilityEntityTypes: normalizeApplicantTypes(
       synopsis?.applicantTypes,
     ),

apps/outreach-worker/src/sources/usaspending/client.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+/**
+ * USASpending.gov award-search client — the federal analog of the 990-PF
+ * grants-paid index. Official API, free, no key.
+ * Docs: https://api.usaspending.gov/docs/endpoints
+ */
+
+const SEARCH_URL =
+  'https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_by_award/';
+
+/** Grant-shaped assistance award type codes (block/formula/project/coop). */
+const GRANT_AWARD_TYPE_CODES = ['02', '03', '04', '05'];
+
+const DEFAULT_POLITENESS_DELAY_MS = 300;
+
+export interface ProgramStateAwardSample {
+  readonly recipientName: string;
+  readonly amount: number | null;
+  readonly startDate: string | null;
+}
+
+export interface ProgramStateAwards {
+  readonly aln: string;
+  readonly awardCount: number;
+  readonly samples: ProgramStateAwardSample[];
+}
+
+export interface UsaSpendingClientOptions {
+  readonly fetchImpl?: typeof fetch;
+  readonly politenessDelayMs?: number;
+}
+
+function wait(ms: number): Promise<void> {
+  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
+}
+
+/**
+ * Recent grant awards under one Assistance Listing to recipients in one
+ * state: total count plus a handful of sample recipients (review-page
+ * evidence — lets a human spot "one incumbent's renewals" vs "spread
+ * across orgs like ours").
+ */
+export async function fetchProgramStateAwards(
+  aln: string,
+  state: string,
+  { startDate, endDate }: { startDate: string; endDate: string },
+  options: UsaSpendingClientOptions = {},
+): Promise<ProgramStateAwards> {
+  const fetchImpl = options.fetchImpl ?? fetch;
+
+  const res = await fetchImpl(SEARCH_URL, {
+    method: 'POST',
+    headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+    body: JSON.stringify({
+      filters: {
+        award_type_codes: GRANT_AWARD_TYPE_CODES,
+        recipient_locations: [{ country: 'USA', state }],
+        time_period: [{ start_date: startDate, end_date: endDate }],
+        program_numbers: [aln],
+      },
+      fields: ['Award ID', 'Recipient Name', 'Award Amount', 'Start Date'],
+      limit: 10,
+      page: 1,
+    }),
+  });
+  if (!res.ok) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `USASpending search failed for ALN ${aln} (${state}): ${res.status} ${res.statusText}`,
+    );
+  }
+
+  const body = (await res.json()) as {
+    results?: Array<{
+      'Recipient Name'?: string | null;
+      'Award Amount'?: number | null;
+      'Start Date'?: string | null;
+    }>;
+    page_metadata?: { total?: number | null };
+  };
+
+  await wait(options.politenessDelayMs ?? DEFAULT_POLITENESS_DELAY_MS);
+
+  const samples: ProgramStateAwardSample[] = (body.results ?? []).map((r) => ({
+    recipientName: r['Recipient Name'] ?? 'Unknown recipient',
+    amount: r['Award Amount'] == null ? null : Math.round(r['Award Amount']),
+    startDate: r['Start Date'] ?? null,
+  }));
+
+  return {
+    aln,
+    awardCount: body.page_metadata?.total ?? samples.length,
+    samples,
+  };
+}

apps/outreach-worker/src/workflows/federal-precedent.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
+/**
+ * Nightly federal-precedent workflow — USASpending award history per
+ * Assistance Listing (ALN/CFDA), the federal analog of the 990-PF index.
+ *
+ * For each distinct ALN across open federal grants: count grant awards to
+ * recipients in the target state over the last ~3 fiscal years, stamp the
+ * count + sample recipients onto every open grant carrying that ALN.
+ * Match retrieval feeds the count into the same 25-point precedent
+ * subscore foundations use — "this program funded N NH orgs recently" and
+ * "this foundation funded N NH orgs recently" are the same signal.
+ *
+ * Runs at 04:45 — after ingest (03:00, which refreshes ALNs) and before
+ * matching (05:15). Registration follows `ingest-grants.ts` exactly.
+ */
+import { DBOS, SchedulerMode } from '@dbos-inc/dbos-sdk';
+import type { schema } from '@novelpad/outreach-core';
+import {
+  serverListOpenFederalAlns,
+  serverResetFederalPrecedent,
+  serverSetFederalPrecedent,
+} from '@novelpad/outreach-core/server';
+import type { NodePgDatabase } from 'drizzle-orm/node-postgres';
+
+import {
+  fetchProgramStateAwards,
+  type ProgramStateAwards,
+} from '#~/sources/usaspending/client.js';
+
+export type OutreachDb = NodePgDatabase<typeof schema>;
+
+const RECIPIENT_STATE = 'NH';
+/** ~3 fiscal years of history — recent enough to predict, long enough to see a pattern. */
+const LOOKBACK_YEARS = 3;
+
+export interface FederalPrecedentDeps {
+  readonly db: OutreachDb;
+}
+
+let registeredDeps: FederalPrecedentDeps | null = null;
+
+export function setFederalPrecedentDeps(deps: FederalPrecedentDeps): void {
+  registeredDeps = deps;
+}
+
+function getFederalPrecedentDeps(): FederalPrecedentDeps {
+  if (registeredDeps == null) {
+    throw new Error(
+      'FederalPrecedentDeps not registered. Call setFederalPrecedentDeps() before DBOS.launch().',
+    );
+  }
+  return registeredDeps;
+}
+
+async function listAlns(db: OutreachDb): Promise<string[]> {
+  return serverListOpenFederalAlns(db);
+}
+const listAlnsStep = DBOS.registerStep(listAlns, {
+  name: 'listOpenFederalAlns',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function fetchAlnAwards(
+  aln: string,
+  startDate: string,
+  endDate: string,
+): Promise<ProgramStateAwards> {
+  return fetchProgramStateAwards(aln, RECIPIENT_STATE, {
+    startDate,
+    endDate,
+  });
+}
+const fetchAlnAwardsStep = DBOS.registerStep(fetchAlnAwards, {
+  name: 'fetchAlnStateAwards',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function applyPrecedent(
+  db: OutreachDb,
+  precedent: ProgramStateAwards,
+): Promise<void> {
+  await serverSetFederalPrecedent(db, {
+    aln: precedent.aln,
+    awardCount: precedent.awardCount,
+    samples: precedent.samples,
+  });
+}
+const applyPrecedentStep = DBOS.registerStep(applyPrecedent, {
+  name: 'applyFederalPrecedent',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function resetPrecedent(db: OutreachDb): Promise<void> {
+  await serverResetFederalPrecedent(db);
+}
+const resetPrecedentStep = DBOS.registerStep(resetPrecedent, {
+  name: 'resetFederalPrecedent',
+  retriesAllowed: true,
+  maxAttempts: 3,
+});
+
+async function runFederalPrecedent(): Promise<void> {
+  const { db } = getFederalPrecedentDeps();
+
+  const alns = await listAlnsStep(db);
+  if (alns.length === 0) {
+    console.log(
+      '[federal-precedent] no open federal grants carry ALNs yet (ingest refresh pending?)',
+    );
+    return;
+  }
+
+  const end = new Date();
+  const start = new Date(end);
+  start.setFullYear(start.getFullYear() - LOOKBACK_YEARS);
+  const startDate = start.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  const endDate = end.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+
+  await resetPrecedentStep(db);
+
+  let programsWithHistory = 0;
+  let failed = 0;
+  for (const aln of alns) {
+    try {
+      const precedent = await fetchAlnAwardsStep(aln, startDate, endDate);
+      if (precedent.awardCount > 0) {
+        await applyPrecedentStep(db, precedent);
+        programsWithHistory++;
+      }
+    } catch (err) {
+      failed++;
+      console.error(`[federal-precedent] ALN ${aln} failed:`, err);
+    }
+  }
+
+  console.log(
+    `[federal-precedent] programs=${alns.length} withNhHistory=${programsWithHistory} failed=${failed}`,
+  );
+  if (failed > 0 && failed / alns.length > 0.2) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `[federal-precedent] systemic failure: ${failed}/${alns.length} programs failed`,
+    );
+  }
+}
+
+const g = globalThis as unknown as {
+  __outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered?: boolean;
+  __outreachFederalPrecedentHandle?: (
+    scheduledTime: Date,
+    startedAt: Date,
+  ) => Promise<void>;
+};
+
+if (!g.__outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered) {
+  g.__outreachFederalPrecedentRegistered = true;
+
+  const federalPrecedent = async (_scheduledTime: Date, _startedAt: Date) => {
+    try {
+      await runFederalPrecedent();
+    } catch (err) {
+      console.error('[federal-precedent] pass failed:', err);
+      throw err;
+    }
+  };
+
+  // Must be registered as BOTH a workflow and a scheduled function,
+  // referencing the same function object — see ingest-grants.ts.
+  g.__outreachFederalPrecedentHandle = DBOS.registerWorkflow(federalPrecedent, {
+    name: 'federalPrecedent',
+  });
+  DBOS.registerScheduled(federalPrecedent, {
+    crontab: '45 4 * * *',
+    name: 'federalPrecedent',
+    mode: SchedulerMode.ExactlyOncePerInterval,
+  });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Starts one durable run of this workflow immediately through DBOS —
+ * the exact production path (workflow + checkpointed steps), used by
+ * `run-once.ts` for supervised/manual passes. Requires deps injected and
+ * `DBOS.launch()` completed.
+ */
+export function runFederalPrecedentNow(): Promise<void> {
+  const handle = g.__outreachFederalPrecedentHandle;
+  if (handle == null) {
+    throw new Error(
+      'federalPrecedent is not registered; was this module imported before DBOS.launch()?',
+    );
+  }
+  return handle(new Date(), new Date());
+}

apps/outreach-worker/src/workflows/ingest-grants.ts

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import { DBOS, SchedulerMode } from '@dbos-inc/dbos-sdk';
 import type { schema } from '@novelpad/outreach-core';
 import {
   serverInsertGrants,
-  serverListGrantSourceUrls,
+  serverMapGrantVerification,
   type NewGrantInput,
 } from '@novelpad/outreach-core/server';
 import type { NodePgDatabase } from 'drizzle-orm/node-postgres';
@@ -100,11 +100,19 @@ async function fetchGrantDetails(
   // hits.slice(0, cap) re-fetched the same head of the search results
   // every night and never drained the backlog. Known opportunities fill
   // any remaining budget (refreshing close dates / lastVerifiedAt).
-  const known = await serverListGrantSourceUrls(db, 'grants_gov');
-  const isKnown = (hit: GrantsGovSearchHit) =>
-    known.has(`https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/${hit.id}`);
-  const fresh = hits.filter((h) => !isKnown(h));
-  const refresh = hits.filter(isKnown);
+  const known = await serverMapGrantVerification(db, 'grants_gov');
+  const urlOf = (hit: GrantsGovSearchHit) =>
+    `https://www.grants.gov/search-results-detail/${hit.id}`;
+  const fresh = hits.filter((h) => !known.has(urlOf(h)));
+  // Oldest-verified first so refreshes rotate through the whole corpus
+  // instead of re-fetching the same head of the search results.
+  const refresh = hits
+    .filter((h) => known.has(urlOf(h)))
+    .sort(
+      (a, b) =>
+        (known.get(urlOf(a))?.getTime() ?? 0) -
+        (known.get(urlOf(b))?.getTime() ?? 0),
+    );
   const toFetch = [...fresh, ...refresh].slice(0, DETAIL_FETCH_CAP);
   console.log(
     `[ingest-grants] detail budget ${DETAIL_FETCH_CAP}: ${Math.min(fresh.length, DETAIL_FETCH_CAP)} new, ${Math.max(0, Math.min(DETAIL_FETCH_CAP - fresh.length, refresh.length))} refresh, backlog remaining ${Math.max(0, fresh.length - DETAIL_FETCH_CAP)}`,