feat(profiler): Stage 4 grounded research profiler — cited profiles replace NTEE stubs

profileOrgs (nightly 05:45, 25/run, easy-win orgs best-first per the
plan's coarse-match-gates-profiling rule): two-pass Gemini flash —
Google Search-grounded research (groundingMetadata = citation universe)
then JSON-schema extraction citing only from it. Overwrites the stub
profile (mission/programs/geography/funders/staff/news/sources/
confidence); re-embeds mission fit from researched text unless identity
unconfirmed or confidence <0.5 (then the NTEE embedding stays —
unverified research must not steer scoring). Detail page renders
researched programs w/ source links, funders, staff.

Fixes: org_profiles.confidence is float4 — 0.2 stores as 0.20000000298
so 'confidence <= 0.2' excluded every stub (epsilon comparison); RR7
loader serialization turns unknown into never (hoisted casts).

Live: 55 orgs profiled (41 research-grade, 2 low-confidence, 0 failed).
Scoring effect verified both directions: Annie's Angels x NIH mammalian
models fit 19->12; Seacoast Pathways x Foundation for Seacoast Health
fit 25/30 — and the researched knownFunders independently names that
funder. 161 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

packages/outreach-core/src/matches/queries/get-match-detail.server.ts

@@ -24,6 +24,11 @@ export interface MatchDetail {
     registrationNumber: string | null;
     missionStatement: string | null;
     profileConfidence: number | null;
+    programs: unknown;
+    knownFunders: unknown;
+    staff: unknown;
+    serviceGeography: string | null;
+    profileSources: unknown;
   };
   grant: {
     id: string;
@@ -103,6 +108,11 @@ export async function serverGetMatchDetail(
     .select({
       missionStatement: schema.orgProfiles.missionStatement,
       confidence: schema.orgProfiles.confidence,
+      programs: schema.orgProfiles.programs,
+      knownFunders: schema.orgProfiles.knownFunders,
+      staff: schema.orgProfiles.staff,
+      serviceGeography: schema.orgProfiles.serviceGeography,
+      sources: schema.orgProfiles.sources,
     })
     .from(schema.orgProfiles)
     .where(eq(schema.orgProfiles.orgId, row.orgId))
@@ -184,6 +194,11 @@ export async function serverGetMatchDetail(
       registrationNumber: row.orgRegNo,
       missionStatement: profiles[0]?.missionStatement ?? null,
       profileConfidence: profiles[0]?.confidence ?? null,
+      programs: profiles[0]?.programs ?? null,
+      knownFunders: profiles[0]?.knownFunders ?? null,
+      staff: profiles[0]?.staff ?? null,
+      serviceGeography: profiles[0]?.serviceGeography ?? null,
+      profileSources: profiles[0]?.sources ?? null,
     },
     grant: {
       id: row.grantId,

packages/outreach-core/src/orgs/actions/apply-researched-profile.server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+import { sql } from 'drizzle-orm';
+
+import type { NpOutreachDatabase, NpOutreachTransaction } from '#~/db/db.js';
+import { schema } from '#~/db/db.js';
+
+export interface ResearchedProfileInput {
+  readonly orgId: string;
+  readonly missionStatement: string | null;
+  readonly programs: unknown;
+  readonly serviceGeography: string | null;
+  readonly recentNews: unknown;
+  readonly knownFunders: unknown;
+  readonly staff: unknown;
+  readonly sources: unknown;
+  readonly confidence: number;
+  /** 1536-dim RETRIEVAL_QUERY embedding of the researched profile text. */
+  readonly profileEmbedding: number[];
+}
+
+/**
+ * Applies a Stage 4 researched profile, OVERWRITING the row — this is the
+ * upgrade path the v0 NTEE stub (confidence 0.2, never-overwriting) exists
+ * to be replaced by. Re-running research refreshes in place.
+ */
+export async function serverApplyResearchedProfile(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+  profile: ResearchedProfileInput,
+): Promise<void> {
+  await db
+    .insert(schema.orgProfiles)
+    .values({
+      orgId: profile.orgId,
+      missionStatement: profile.missionStatement,
+      programs: profile.programs,
+      serviceGeography: profile.serviceGeography,
+      recentNews: profile.recentNews,
+      knownFunders: profile.knownFunders,
+      staff: profile.staff,
+      sources: profile.sources,
+      confidence: profile.confidence,
+      profileEmbedding: profile.profileEmbedding,
+    })
+    .onConflictDoUpdate({
+      target: schema.orgProfiles.orgId,
+      set: {
+        missionStatement: sql`excluded.mission_statement`,
+        programs: sql`excluded.programs`,
+        serviceGeography: sql`excluded.service_geography`,
+        recentNews: sql`excluded.recent_news`,
+        knownFunders: sql`excluded.known_funders`,
+        staff: sql`excluded.staff`,
+        sources: sql`excluded.sources`,
+        confidence: sql`excluded.confidence`,
+        profileEmbedding: sql`excluded.profile_embedding`,
+      },
+    });
+}

packages/outreach-core/src/orgs/actions/index.server.ts

@@ -2,3 +2,4 @@ export * from './insert-org.server.js';
 export * from './upsert-org-from-registry.server.js';
 export * from './enrich-org.server.js';
 export * from './ensure-org-profile-stub.server.js';
+export * from './apply-researched-profile.server.js';

packages/outreach-core/src/orgs/queries/index.server.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
 export * from './list-orgs-in-icp-band.server.js';
 export * from './list-orgs-needing-enrichment.server.js';
 export * from './list-match-candidate-orgs.server.js';
+export * from './list-orgs-needing-profile.server.js';

packages/outreach-core/src/orgs/queries/list-orgs-needing-profile.server.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+import { sql } from 'drizzle-orm';
+
+import type { NpOutreachDatabase, NpOutreachTransaction } from '#~/db/db.js';
+
+export interface OrgNeedingProfile {
+  id: string;
+  name: string;
+  city: string | null;
+  state: string;
+  ein: string | null;
+  nteeCode: string | null;
+  bestMatchScore: number;
+}
+
+/** Profiles below/at this confidence are NTEE-derived stubs, not research. */
+export const STUB_CONFIDENCE_CEILING = 0.2;
+
+/**
+ * The plan's cost-control rule made concrete: research only orgs that
+ * already have at least one non-rejected easy-win match (a plausible
+ * lead), best-scoring orgs first, and only when the current profile is a
+ * stub (or missing). Re-research after review feedback comes later.
+ */
+export async function serverListOrgsNeedingProfile(
+  db: NpOutreachDatabase | NpOutreachTransaction,
+  { limit }: { limit: number },
+): Promise<OrgNeedingProfile[]> {
+  const result = await db.execute(sql`
+    SELECT
+      o.id, o.name, o.city, o.state, o.ein, o.ntee_code,
+      max(m.total_score) AS best_match_score
+    FROM orgs o
+    JOIN matches m ON m.org_id = o.id
+      AND m.review_status != 'rejected'
+      AND m.easy_win = true
+    LEFT JOIN org_profiles p ON p.org_id = o.id
+    -- confidence is a float4: 0.2 stores as 0.20000000298, so a plain
+    -- <= 0.2 comparison (float8) excludes every stub. Epsilon absorbs it.
+    WHERE p.id IS NULL OR p.confidence IS NULL OR p.confidence <= ${STUB_CONFIDENCE_CEILING} + 0.001
+    GROUP BY o.id
+    ORDER BY max(m.total_score) DESC
+    LIMIT ${limit}
+  `);
+
+  const { rows } = result as unknown as { rows: Record<string, unknown>[] };
+  return rows.map((r) => ({
+    id: r.id as string,
+    name: r.name as string,
+    city: (r.city as string) ?? null,
+    state: r.state as string,
+    ein: (r.ein as string) ?? null,
+    nteeCode: (r.ntee_code as string) ?? null,
+    bestMatchScore: Number(r.best_match_score),
+  }));
+}