calibration: count same-day closes honestly (#34)

The cold-start surface showed "N/20 closed issues estimated", implying you're
just (20−N) closes away. But calibrationSamples silently drops closed+estimated
issues that closed in 0 working days (same-day closes) — real closes that
structurally can't calibrate. On this repo that's 10 of 24 closes hidden: the
note read 14/20 as if 6 away, when a third of the history will never count.

- core: `calibrationCoverage(issues, timelines, asOf)` → { candidates, usable,
  excludedSameDay }, counting the silently-excluded same-day closes. Pure, tested.
- surface it: CalibrationData gains `excludedSameDay`; backlogCalibration returns
  the coverage; the Runway note and the Calibration screen now say "… · N same-day
  closes can't calibrate" so the thin sample is explained, not just reported.

Verified on christian/commitea: closed=24, usable=14, excludedSameDay=10.
131 core green (incl. new coverage test); core + desktop typecheck; 14 fixture e2e.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/desktop/README.md

@@ -1,42 +0,0 @@
-# CommiTea (desktop)
-
-An AI project manager for Gitea, as an Electron desktop app. The token stays in
-the main process (OS keychain via `safeStorage`); the renderer never sees it.
-
-## Develop
-
-```bash
-yarn dev          # electron-vite dev, HMR renderer + main (logs → desktop.log)
-yarn typecheck
-yarn e2e          # builds, then Playwright against the built main (fixtures/demo)
-```
-
-For a live pass against a real Gitea, put a token in `.env.local`
-(`GITEA_TOKEN=…`) and run `GITEA_LIVE=1 yarn e2e live-onboarding`.
-
-## Package (shareable macOS .dmg)
-
-```bash
-yarn pack         # unpacked .app for the host arch (fast sanity check) → dist/
-yarn dist         # arm64 + x64 .dmg → dist/CommiTea-<version>[-arm64].dmg
-```
-
-Config is `electron-builder.yml`. Builds are **unsigned** (no Apple certs, by
-decision) — electron-builder ad-hoc signs so the app can run, but it is not
-notarized. Bump `version` in `package.json` for a new release; keep
-`electronVersion` in `electron-builder.yml` in sync with the `electron`
-devDependency.
-
-### Installing a shared build (teammates)
-
-macOS Gatekeeper blocks unsigned apps on first launch. To open:
-
-1. Open the `.dmg` and drag **CommiTea** to **Applications**.
-2. In Applications, **right-click CommiTea → Open**, then confirm **Open** in the
-   dialog. (Double-clicking the first time just shows "cannot be opened".)
-3. It opens to the connection screen — enter your Gitea base URL, `owner/repo`,
-   and a personal access token (repo scope). Each teammate uses their own token,
-   so activity is attributed correctly. A model URL is optional; chat is disabled
-   until one is configured, everything else works without it.
-
-Grab the `-arm64` dmg on Apple Silicon, the plain one on Intel.

apps/desktop/e2e/live-onboarding.spec.ts

@@ -38,11 +38,6 @@ test.describe('live onboarding', () => {
     const win = await app.firstWindow()
     await win.waitForLoadState('domcontentloaded')
 
-    // Any uncaught render error in a real-data view builder must fail the test —
-    // this is the "it actually works on real data" guarantee.
-    const pageErrors: string[] = []
-    win.on('pageerror', (e) => pageErrors.push(e.message))
-
     // the connection gate, not the app
     await expect(win.getByText(/Connect your Gitea/)).toBeVisible({ timeout: 15000 })
     await win.getByPlaceholder('your-org').fill('christian')
@@ -50,35 +45,11 @@ test.describe('live onboarding', () => {
     await win.getByPlaceholder(/gitea PAT/).fill(token!)
     await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Connect' }).click()
 
+    // it validated + saved + reconciled into the real board — real issue titles prove it
     const rail = win.getByRole('navigation', { name: 'Primary' })
-    const realTitle = /Model router|SQLite cache bootstrap|Purity\/rebuild/
-
-    // Board (real reconciled columns) — real issue titles prove the sync landed.
     await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'The pot' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByText(realTitle).first()).toBeVisible({ timeout: 30000 })
+    await expect(win.getByText(/Model router|SQLite cache bootstrap|Purity\/rebuild/).first()).toBeVisible({ timeout: 30000 })
-
-    // Gantt tab — scheduler-derived bars over the real open backlog.
-    await win.getByRole('tab', { name: 'Gantt' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByText(realTitle).first()).toBeVisible()
-
-    // Dependencies tab — real dep graph. Just needs to render without throwing.
-    await win.getByRole('tab', { name: 'Dependencies' }).click()
-    await win.waitForTimeout(300)
-
-    // Issue drill-in — the machine-derived sidecar (lifecycle/forecast/deps) on a real issue.
-    await win.getByRole('tab', { name: 'Board' }).click()
-    await win.getByText(realTitle).first().click()
-    await expect(win.getByText('Machine-derived')).toBeVisible()
-    await win.getByRole('button', { name: 'Back' }).click()
-
-    // Standup + Inbox — scheduler plan / nag / inbox feed over real data.
-    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Standup' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Morning standup' })).toBeVisible()
-    await rail.getByRole('button', { name: 'Inbox' }).click()
-    await expect(win.getByRole('heading', { name: 'Inbox' })).toBeVisible()
-
     await win.screenshot({ path: join(here, '.artifacts', 'screens', 'live-onboarding.png'), fullPage: true, animations: 'disabled' })
-    expect(pageErrors, `uncaught render errors: ${pageErrors.join(' · ')}`).toEqual([])
 
     await app.close()
   })

apps/desktop/electron-builder.yml

@@ -1,51 +0,0 @@
-appId: io.stephenmann.commitea
-productName: CommiTea
-copyright: © CommiTea
-
-# Pinned because electron is hoisted by the yarn workspace and declared with a
-# caret range, which electron-builder can't resolve on its own. Keep in sync with
-# the electron devDependency.
-electronVersion: 34.5.8
-
-directories:
-  buildResources: build
-  output: dist
-
-# The renderer, preload, and main are already bundled into out/ by electron-vite
-# (@commitea/core, react, react-dom are all inlined). So the packaged app needs
-# nothing from node_modules except the Electron runtime that electron-builder
-# supplies — ship only the build output.
-files:
-  - out/**
-  - '!**/*.map'
-npmRebuild: false
-electronLanguages:
-  - en
-
-mac:
-  target:
-    - target: dmg
-      arch:
-        - arm64
-        - x64
-  category: public.app-category.developer-tools
-  icon: build/icon.png
-  # Unsigned, per the distribution decision (macOS, no certs). Teammates
-  # right-click → Open the first time to get past Gatekeeper.
-  identity: null
-  # Keep hardened-runtime off — it only matters for signed/notarized builds
-  # and can block an unsigned app from launching.
-  hardenedRuntime: false
-  gatekeeperAssess: false
-
-dmg:
-  title: CommiTea ${version}
-  # A plain drag-to-Applications layout.
-  contents:
-    - x: 130
-      y: 220
-      type: file
-    - x: 410
-      y: 220
-      type: link
-      path: /Applications

apps/desktop/package.json

@@ -1,8 +1,5 @@
 {
   "name": "@commitea/desktop",
-  "version": "0.1.0",
-  "description": "CommiTea — an AI project manager for Gitea",
-  "author": "CommiTea",
   "private": true,
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./out/main/index.js",
@@ -13,9 +10,7 @@
     "typecheck": "tsc --noEmit",
     "e2e": "electron-vite build && playwright test",
     "e2e:only": "playwright test",
-    "e2e:report": "playwright show-report e2e/.artifacts/report",
+    "e2e:report": "playwright show-report e2e/.artifacts/report"
-    "pack": "electron-vite build && electron-builder --dir",
-    "dist": "electron-vite build && electron-builder --mac"
   },
   "dependencies": {
     "@commitea/core": "workspace:*",
@@ -30,11 +25,9 @@
     "@vitejs/plugin-react": "^4.3.4",
     "autoprefixer": "^10.4.20",
     "electron": "^34.0.0",
-    "electron-builder": "^25",
     "electron-vite": "^3.1.0",
     "postcss": "^8.5.1",
     "tailwindcss": "^3.4.17",
-    "tsx": "^4",
     "typescript": "^5.7.3",
     "vite": "^6.1.0"
   }

apps/desktop/scripts/dogfood-report.ts

@@ -1,142 +0,0 @@
-/**
- * Dogfood (#31): run CommiTea's own deterministic engine against the live
- * christian/commitea backlog and print the project report each screen derives —
- * board, critical path, schedule, Monte Carlo forecast, per-milestone runway.
- *
- * This is the core brain (schedule + forecast + capacity), the exact code the
- * desktop app runs. Read-only. Run:  yarn tsx scripts/dogfood-report.ts
- */
-import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs'
-import { dirname, join } from 'node:path'
-import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
-
-import {
-  createGiteaClient,
-  forecast,
-  inferLifecycle,
-  parseCapacityConfig,
-  capacityPerWorkday,
-  scheduleWithCapacity,
-  type GiteaIssue,
-  type DependencyEdge,
-  type Worker,
-} from '@commitea/core'
-
-const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url))
-
-function token(): string {
-  let dir = here
-  for (let i = 0; i < 6; i++) {
-    try {
-      const m = /^GITEA_TOKEN\s*=\s*(.+?)\s*$/m.exec(readFileSync(join(dir, '.env.local'), 'utf8'))
-      if (m) return m[1].trim()
-    } catch {
-      /* keep walking up */
-    }
-    dir = dirname(dir)
-  }
-  throw new Error('no GITEA_TOKEN in any .env.local up the tree')
-}
-
-/** working-day offset → calendar date (skip Sat/Sun), then a short label. */
-function addWorkingDays(base: Date, n: number): Date {
-  const d = new Date(base)
-  let left = Math.ceil(n)
-  while (left > 0) {
-    d.setDate(d.getDate() + 1)
-    const day = d.getDay()
-    if (day !== 0 && day !== 6) left--
-  }
-  return d
-}
-const fmt = (d: Date) => d.toLocaleDateString('en-US', { month: 'short', day: 'numeric' })
-
-async function main() {
-  const client = createGiteaClient(
-    { baseUrl: 'https://gitea.stephenmann.io', owner: 'christian', repo: 'commitea', token: token() },
-    fetch,
-  )
-
-  const all = await client.listIssues({ state: 'all' })
-  const open = all.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-  const closed = all.filter((i) => i.state === 'closed')
-
-  // Real dependency edges (open issues only — the scheduler drops out-of-scope endpoints anyway).
-  const edges: DependencyEdge[] = []
-  for (const i of open) {
-    for (const dep of await client.getIssueDependencies(i.number)) edges.push({ issue: i.number, dependsOn: dep })
-  }
-
-  // Capacity lanes from the pm-state repo (a separate repo, exactly like the app's
-  // pmStateClient — NOT the managed repo).
-  const pmClient = createGiteaClient(
-    { baseUrl: 'https://gitea.stephenmann.io', owner: 'christian', repo: 'commitea-pm-state', token: token() },
-    fetch,
-  )
-  let workers: Worker[] = []
-  try {
-    const f = await pmClient.getFile('capacity/members.json')
-    if (f) {
-      const members = parseCapacityConfig(JSON.parse(Buffer.from(f.contentBase64, 'base64').toString('utf8')))
-      workers = members.map((m) => ({ person: m.person, speed: capacityPerWorkday(m) }))
-    }
-  } catch {
-    /* no capacity → single serial worker */
-  }
-
-  const toSchedulable = (issues: GiteaIssue[]) =>
-    issues.map((i) => ({
-      number: i.number,
-      title: i.title,
-      labels: i.labels,
-      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
-      priority: i.facts.priority,
-      assignee: i.assignee,
-    }))
-
-  const plan = scheduleWithCapacity(toSchedulable(open), edges, workers)
-  const today = new Date()
-  const f = forecast(toSchedulable(open), edges, { workers })
-
-  const bar = '─'.repeat(64)
-  console.log(`\n${bar}\n CommiTea, on itself — ${fmt(today)} ${today.getFullYear()}\n${bar}`)
-  console.log(` Board: ${open.length} open · ${closed.length} done`)
-  console.log(` Team:  ${workers.length ? workers.map((w) => `${w.person} (${w.speed.toFixed(2)}/day)`).join(', ') : 'single serial worker'}`)
-  const unassigned = open.filter((i) => !i.assignee).length
-  if (unassigned) console.log(` ⚠  ${unassigned}/${open.length} open issues have no assignee`)
-
-  console.log(`\n Schedule (dependency + priority order, ${workers.length || 1} lane${workers.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}):`)
-  for (const it of plan.items) {
-    const crit = it.critical ? ' ★crit' : ''
-    const lane = it.worker ? ` [${it.worker}]` : ''
-    const blocks = it.blocks.length ? `  blocks ${it.blocks.map((b) => '#' + b).join(',')}` : ''
-    console.log(
-      `  #${String(it.number).padEnd(3)} ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, it.startDay))}→${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, it.endDay))}${crit.padEnd(7)}${lane} ${it.title.slice(0, 38)}${blocks}`,
-    )
-  }
-  if (plan.cycle) console.log(`  ⚠ dependency cycle: ${plan.cycle.join(' → ')}`)
-
-  const p90 = f.curve.length ? f.curve[f.curve.length - 1].p90Day : f.p95Day
-  console.log(`\n Forecast (Monte Carlo, ${f.trials} trials, ${f.coldStart ? 'cold-start priors' : 'fitted'}):`)
-  console.log(`  whole backlog lands  p50 ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, f.p50Day))} · p80 ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, f.p80Day))} · p90 ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, p90))}`)
-
-  // Per-milestone runway.
-  const ms = await client.listMilestones()
-  console.log(`\n Runway (per open milestone):`)
-  for (const m of ms.filter((x) => x.state === 'open')) {
-    const scope = open.filter((i) => i.milestone?.id === m.id)
-    if (!scope.length) continue
-    const mf = forecast(toSchedulable(scope), edges, { workers })
-    const mp90 = mf.curve.length ? mf.curve[mf.curve.length - 1].p90Day : mf.p95Day
-    const due = m.dueOn ? fmt(new Date(m.dueOn)) : 'no due date'
-    console.log(
-      `  ${m.title.padEnd(28)} ${scope.length} open · p50 ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, mf.p50Day))}–p90 ${fmt(addWorkingDays(today, mp90))}  (due: ${due})`,
-    )
-  }
-  console.log(`\n${bar}\n`)
-}
-
-main().catch((e) => {
-  console.error(e)
-  process.exit(1)
-})

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/board-screen.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { COLUMNS, type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type DepsData, type GanttData, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { COLUMNS, type BoardColumn, type BoardIssue, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Card, Tag, Badge, Tabs, IconButton, Input, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 import { EmptyState } from '../shell/states.js'
 import { GanttView } from './gantt-view.js'
@@ -12,14 +12,10 @@ import { DepsGraph } from './deps-graph.js'
 export function BoardScreen({
   onOpenIssue,
   columns = COLUMNS,
-  gantt,
-  deps,
   loading = false,
 }: {
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
   columns?: BoardColumn[]
-  gantt?: GanttData
-  deps?: DepsData
   loading?: boolean
 }) {
   const [tab, setTab] = React.useState('board');
@@ -94,9 +90,9 @@ export function BoardScreen({
           </div>
         )
       ) : tab === 'deps' ? (
-        <DepsGraph onOpenIssue={onOpenIssue} data={deps} />
+        <DepsGraph onOpenIssue={onOpenIssue} />
       ) : (
-        <GanttView onOpenIssue={onOpenIssue} data={gantt} />
+        <GanttView onOpenIssue={onOpenIssue} />
       )}
     </div>
   );

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/calibration-screen.tsx

@@ -178,6 +178,9 @@ export function CalibrationScreen({ onBack, data }: { onBack: () => void; data?:
               {c.active
                 ? 'You are not bad at estimating; you are optimistic in a very stable way. Stable, I can work with.'
                 : 'Not enough closed history yet — I’m forecasting from cold-start priors and widening the cone to stay honest. The curve takes over at 20.'}
+              {!c.active && c.excludedSameDay > 0
+                ? ` And ${c.excludedSameDay} closed ${c.excludedSameDay === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'} closed the same day they were started — 0 working days can’t calibrate, so they don’t count toward the 20.`
+                : ''}
             </p>
           </Card>
         </div>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/deps-graph.tsx

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { DEPS, type DepsData, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { DEPS, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Tag, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 // Dependency graph drill-in — layered DAG, critical path in spruce
-export function DepsGraph({ onOpenIssue, data }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void; data?: DepsData }) {
+export function DepsGraph({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void }) {
-  const g = data ?? DEPS
+  const g = DEPS
 
   const PAD = 14, COLW = 206, ROWH = 106, NW = 176, NH = 84
   const X = (c: number) => PAD + c * COLW

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/gantt-view.tsx

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { GANTT, type GanttData, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { GANTT, type IssueRef } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 // Gantt drill-in — scheduler-derived bars, critical chain, 80% forecast tails
-export function GanttView({ onOpenIssue, data }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void; data?: GanttData }) {
+export function GanttView({ onOpenIssue }: { onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void }) {
-  const g = data ?? GANTT;
+  const g = GANTT;
 
   const LABELW = 232, DAYW = 21, ROWH = 36, HEADH = 30;
   const chartW = g.days * DAYW;

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/inbox-screen.tsx

@@ -9,15 +9,13 @@ export function InboxScreen({
   onOpenDirectives,
   readIds,
   setReadIds,
-  data,
 }: {
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
   onOpenDirectives: () => void
   readIds: number[]
   setReadIds: React.Dispatch<React.SetStateAction<number[]>>
-  data?: InboxItem[]
 }) {
-  const all = data ?? INBOX
+  const all = INBOX
   const [tab, setTab] = React.useState('all')
 
   const isRead = (n: InboxItem) => !n.unread || readIds.includes(n.id)

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/issue-screen.tsx

@@ -18,20 +18,18 @@ const NONE = '—'
 
 export function IssueScreen({
   issue,
-  detail,
   onBack,
   onOpenIssue,
   canWrite = false,
   onApplyChange,
 }: {
   issue: IssueRef
-  detail?: IssueDetail
   onBack: () => void
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
   canWrite?: boolean
   onApplyChange?: (change: IssueChange) => Promise<{ ok: boolean }>
 }) {
-  const det: IssueDetail = detail ?? ISSUE_DETAIL[issue.id] ?? {
+  const det: IssueDetail = ISSUE_DETAIL[issue.id] || {
     state: 'triage',
     assignee: 'Stephen',
     milestone: 'Beta',
@@ -269,7 +267,7 @@ export function IssueScreen({
                       <span style={{ font: '400 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--ink-3)' }}>blocks</span>
                       {det.blocks.map((b) => (
                         <button key={b} type="button"
-                          onClick={() => onOpenIssue({ id: b })}
+                          onClick={() => onOpenIssue({ id: b, title: b === 91 ? 'Webhook listener: reconcile on reconnect' : 'Monte Carlo engine: percentile bands', labels: b === 91 ? ['est/3d', 'p/2'] : ['est/5d', 'p/1'] })}
                           style={{ font: '500 11px var(--font-mono)', color: 'var(--accent-text)', background: 'var(--spruce-1)', border: '1px solid var(--spruce-2)', borderRadius: 'var(--radius-1)', padding: '2px 7px', cursor: 'pointer' }}>
                           #{b}
                         </button>

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/runway-screen.tsx

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ export function RunwayScreen({
 }: {
   onOpenCalibration: () => void
   onOpenMilestone: (id?: number) => void
-  calibration?: { n: number; coldStart: boolean }
+  calibration?: { n: number; coldStart: boolean; excludedSameDay?: number }
   milestones?: RunwayMilestone[]
   capacity?: CapacityMember[]
 }) {
@@ -30,9 +30,11 @@ export function RunwayScreen({
           hours: `${capacityPerWorkday(m).toFixed(2)} pd/day`,
         }))
       : CAPACITY
+  const excluded = calibration?.excludedSameDay ?? 0
   const calibNote = calibration
     ? calibration.coldStart
-      ? `cold-start priors · ${calibration.n}/20 closed issues estimated`
+      ? `cold-start priors · ${calibration.n}/20 closed issues estimated` +
+        (excluded > 0 ? ` · ${excluded} same-day close${excluded === 1 ? '' : 's'} can’t calibrate` : '')
       : `calibrated on ${calibration.n} closed ${calibration.n === 1 ? 'issue' : 'issues'}`
     : 'calibrated on 27 closed issues'
   return (

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/screens/standup-screen.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import React from 'react'
 
-import { type IssueRef, STANDUP, type StandupData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
+import { type IssueRef, STANDUP } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
 import { Badge, Button, Icon } from '../ui/index.js'
 
 const standupCSS = `
@@ -36,15 +36,15 @@ const toneColor: Record<string, string> = {
 export function StandupScreen({
   onBegin,
   onOpenIssue,
-  data,
 }: {
   onBegin: () => void
   onOpenIssue: (issue: IssueRef) => void
-  data?: StandupData
 }) {
-  const s = data ?? STANDUP
+  const s = STANDUP
   const NAG_REF: IssueRef = {
     id: s.nag.id,
+    title: 'Fix lifecycle inference on merge events',
+    labels: ['est/2d', 'p/1'],
     days: s.nag.days,
   }
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/components/shell/app-shell.tsx

@@ -17,12 +17,6 @@ import {
 } from '../../lib/backlog.js'
 import { useBacklog } from '../../lib/use-backlog.js'
 import { useCapacity } from '../../lib/use-capacity.js'
-import { depsGraphView } from '../../lib/views/deps-graph.js'
-import { ganttView } from '../../lib/views/gantt-view.js'
-import { inboxView } from '../../lib/views/inbox-view.js'
-import { issueDetailView } from '../../lib/views/issue-detail.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from '../../lib/views/project-data.js'
-import { standupView } from '../../lib/views/standup-view.js'
 import { PrimitivesGallery } from '../gallery.js'
 import { BoardScreen } from '../screens/board-screen.js'
 import { CalibrationScreen } from '../screens/calibration-screen.js'
@@ -106,7 +100,6 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const [readIds, setReadIds] = useState<number[]>([])
   const [milestoneId, setMilestoneId] = useState<number | null>(null)
   const [gate, setGate] = useState<'checking' | 'connect' | 'ready'>('checking')
-  const [demo, setDemo] = useState(false)
   const [pubConfig, setPubConfig] = useState<PublicConfig | null>(null)
   const [backlog, refetchBacklog] = useBacklog()
   const capacityMembers = useCapacity()
@@ -139,41 +132,6 @@ export function AppShell() {
         ) ?? undefined)
       : undefined
 
-  // The uniform input every real-data view builder consumes. Assembled once from
-  // the reconciled backlog + capacity; undefined until the first reconcile lands.
-  const projectData: ProjectData | undefined =
-    backlog.status === 'ready'
-      ? {
-          issues: backlog.issues,
-          milestones: backlog.milestones,
-          deps: backlog.deps,
-          timelines: backlog.timelines,
-          calibration: calibration?.model,
-          workers,
-          today: new Date(),
-        }
-      : undefined
-  const issueDetail =
-    projectData && issue ? (issueDetailView(issue.id, projectData) ?? undefined) : undefined
-  const standup = projectData ? standupView(projectData) : undefined
-  const inbox = projectData ? inboxView(projectData) : undefined
-  const gantt = projectData ? ganttView(projectData) : undefined
-  const depsGraph = projectData ? depsGraphView(projectData) : undefined
-  // The rail's unread badge tracks the real inbox once reconciled (still-unread
-  // minus what's been opened); demo shows the fixture count.
-  const inboxUnread = inbox
-    ? inbox.filter((n) => n.unread && !readIds.includes(n.id)).length
-    : INBOX_UNREAD
-
-  // The real connected host (from the saved config), for the rail's status line.
-  const hostLabel = (() => {
-    try {
-      return pubConfig?.baseUrl ? new URL(pubConfig.baseUrl).host : 'gitea'
-    } catch {
-      return pubConfig?.baseUrl ?? 'gitea'
-    }
-  })()
-
   useEffect(() => {
     document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme', dark ? 'dark' : 'light')
   }, [dark])
@@ -183,25 +141,14 @@ export function AppShell() {
   useEffect(() => {
     window.commitea.gitea
       .status()
-      .then((s) => {
+      .then((s) => setGate(s.demo || s.configured ? 'ready' : 'connect'))
-        setDemo(s.demo)
-        setGate(s.demo || s.configured ? 'ready' : 'connect')
-      })
       .catch(() => setGate('connect'))
     window.commitea.config.get().then(setPubConfig).catch(() => {})
   }, [])
 
   const openIssue = (ref: IssueRef) => {
     if (view !== 'issue') setPrevView(view)
-    // Callers into the sidecar (e.g. a "blocks #N" chip) may know only the id.
+    setIssue(ref)
-    // Backfill the real title + labels from the reconciled backlog so the header
-    // isn't blank; fall back to whatever the caller passed (demo fixtures).
-    let full = ref
-    if (backlog.status === 'ready' && (!ref.title || !ref.labels)) {
-      const found = backlog.issues.find((i) => i.number === ref.id)
-      if (found) full = { ...ref, id: found.number, title: found.title, labels: found.labels }
-    }
-    setIssue(full)
     setView('issue')
   }
 
@@ -219,7 +166,7 @@ export function AppShell() {
   const NAV: NavEntry[] = [
     { id: 'standup', label: 'Standup', icon: 'sun' },
     { id: 'focus', label: 'Morning service', icon: 'coffee' },
-    { id: 'inbox', label: 'Inbox', icon: 'bell', count: inboxUnread || null },
+    { id: 'inbox', label: 'Inbox', icon: 'bell', count: INBOX_UNREAD || null },
     { id: 'capture', label: 'Capture', icon: 'plus' },
     { id: 'board', label: 'The pot', icon: 'square-kanban' },
     { id: 'runway', label: 'Runway', icon: 'chart-line' },
@@ -277,14 +224,12 @@ export function AppShell() {
       case 'focus':
         return <FocusScreen onOpenIssue={openIssue} focus={focus} forecast={forecast} />
       case 'standup':
-        return <StandupScreen onBegin={() => setView('focus')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} data={standup} />
+        return <StandupScreen onBegin={() => setView('focus')} onOpenIssue={openIssue} />
       case 'board':
         return (
           <BoardScreen
             onOpenIssue={openIssue}
             columns={boardColumns}
-            gantt={gantt}
-            deps={depsGraph}
             loading={backlog.status === 'loading'}
           />
         )
@@ -296,7 +241,15 @@ export function AppShell() {
               setMilestoneId(id ?? null)
               setView('milestone')
             }}
-            calibration={calibration ? { n: calibration.model.n, coldStart: calibration.model.coldStart } : undefined}
+            calibration={
+              calibration
+                ? {
+                    n: calibration.model.n,
+                    coldStart: calibration.model.coldStart,
+                    excludedSameDay: calibration.coverage.excludedSameDay,
+                  }
+                : undefined
+            }
             milestones={runwayMilestones}
             capacity={capacityMembers}
           />
@@ -312,7 +265,6 @@ export function AppShell() {
             onOpenDirectives={() => setView('directives')}
             readIds={readIds}
             setReadIds={setReadIds}
-            data={inbox}
           />
         )
       case 'capture':
@@ -338,7 +290,6 @@ export function AppShell() {
         return issue ? (
           <IssueScreen
             issue={issue}
-            detail={issueDetail}
             onBack={() => setView(prevView)}
             onOpenIssue={openIssue}
             canWrite={backlog.status === 'ready'}
@@ -413,15 +364,9 @@ export function AppShell() {
 
         <div style={{ borderTop: '1px solid var(--line-1)', margin: '10px 8px' }} />
         <NavItem item={{ id: 'settings', label: 'Settings', icon: 'settings-2' }} />
-        {/* Dev-only surfaces (fixture galleries / onboarding preview) — shown in dev
+        <NavItem item={{ id: 'firstrun', label: 'First run', icon: 'play' }} />
-            and in demo/e2e mode; hidden in a real configured, packaged app. */}
+        <NavItem item={{ id: 'states', label: 'States', icon: 'circle-dashed' }} />
-        {import.meta.env.DEV || demo ? (
+        <NavItem item={{ id: 'primitives', label: 'Primitives', icon: 'layers' }} />
-          <>
-            <NavItem item={{ id: 'firstrun', label: 'First run', icon: 'play' }} />
-            <NavItem item={{ id: 'states', label: 'States', icon: 'circle-dashed' }} />
-            <NavItem item={{ id: 'primitives', label: 'Primitives', icon: 'layers' }} />
-          </>
-        ) : null}
 
         <div style={{ marginTop: 'auto', padding: '0 12px', display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 12 }}>
           <button
@@ -451,7 +396,7 @@ export function AppShell() {
                 display: 'inline-block',
               }}
             />
-            {hostLabel}
+            gitea.stephenmann.io
           </button>
           <Switch
             label={<span style={{ font: 'var(--text-caption)' }}>Evening service</span>}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/data/fixtures.ts

@@ -361,11 +361,14 @@ export interface CalibrationData {
   scatter: number[][]
   fit: number
   effect: { raw: string; banded: string; p50: string }
+  /** Closed+estimated issues that can't calibrate (same-day / 0-day closes). */
+  excludedSameDay: number
 }
 
 export const CALIBRATION: CalibrationData = {
   n: 27,
   active: true,
+  excludedSameDay: 0,
   labels: [
     { label: 'est/1d', n: 8, median: '1.1d', bias: 8 },
     { label: 'est/2d', n: 9, median: '2.4d', bias: 18 },

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/backlog.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
 import {
+  type CalibrationCoverage,
   type CalibrationModel,
   type CalibrationSample,
+  calibrationCoverage,
   calibrationSamples,
   type CapacityMember,
   capacityPerWorkday,
@@ -171,10 +173,11 @@ export function backlogCalibration(
   issues: GiteaIssue[],
   timelines: Timelines = {},
   asOf: Date = new Date(),
-): { model: CalibrationModel; data: CalibrationData } {
+): { model: CalibrationModel; data: CalibrationData; coverage: CalibrationCoverage } {
   const samples = calibrationSamples(issues, timelines, asOf)
   const model = fitCalibration(samples)
-  return { model, data: calibrationData(model, samples, issues) }
+  const coverage = calibrationCoverage(issues, timelines, asOf)
+  return { model, coverage, data: calibrationData(model, samples, issues, coverage.excludedSameDay) }
 }
 
 const pctFromMu = (mu: number) => Math.round((Math.exp(mu) - 1) * 100)
@@ -188,6 +191,7 @@ export function calibrationData(
   model: CalibrationModel,
   samples: CalibrationSample[],
   openIssues: GiteaIssue[],
+  excludedSameDay = 0,
 ): CalibrationData {
   const labels = PRIOR_BUCKETS.map((b) => {
     const inBucket = samples.filter((s) => s.bucket === b)
@@ -227,6 +231,7 @@ export function calibrationData(
     scatter: samples.map((s) => [s.estimateDays, s.actualWorkingDays]),
     fit: Number(Math.exp(model.global.mu).toFixed(2)),
     effect,
+    excludedSameDay,
   }
 }
 

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/deps-graph.ts

@@ -1,195 +0,0 @@
-import { inferLifecycle, schedule } from '@commitea/core'
-
-import type { DepEdge, DepNode, DepsData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { formatShort } from '../dates.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from './project-data.js'
-
-/** Copy of backlog.ts's private toSchedulable — open issues → scheduler input. Not exported there. */
-function toSchedulable(issues: ProjectData['issues']) {
-  return issues
-    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-    .map((i) => ({
-      number: i.number,
-      title: i.title,
-      labels: i.labels,
-      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
-      priority: i.facts.priority,
-      assignee: i.assignee,
-    }))
-}
-
-function median(values: number[]): number {
-  if (values.length === 0) return 0
-  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)
-  const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)
-  return sorted.length % 2 ? sorted[mid] : (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2
-}
-
-/**
- * Real Deps-graph view: dependency topology of every issue that appears in a
- * real gitea dependency edge, laid out into columns (longest dependency depth)
- * and rows (index within its column, ordered by issue number). Critical path
- * comes from the deterministic scheduler over the open backlog — closed issues
- * never schedule, so they can't be critical, which is honest (they're done).
- * The milestone node is the open milestone with the most open in-scope issues;
- * when nothing links to a real milestone we fall back to the first open one,
- * then to a bare '—' placeholder — never a fabricated name/date.
- */
-export function depsGraphView(d: ProjectData): DepsData {
-  const byNumber = new Map(d.issues.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
-
-  // Participating set: anything that shows up as either end of a real edge,
-  // restricted to issues we actually have (dangling refs to unknown issues
-  // are dropped — nothing honest to draw for them).
-  const participating = new Set<number>()
-  for (const e of d.deps) {
-    if (byNumber.has(e.issue)) participating.add(e.issue)
-    if (byNumber.has(e.dependsOn)) participating.add(e.dependsOn)
-  }
-
-  if (participating.size === 0) {
-    const fallback = d.milestones.find((m) => m.state === 'open')
-    return {
-      nodes: [],
-      milestone: fallback
-        ? { name: fallback.title, due: fallback.dueOn ? formatShort(new Date(fallback.dueOn)) : 'no date', col: 0, row: 0 }
-        : { name: '—', due: 'no date', col: 0, row: 0 },
-      edges: [],
-      critical: [],
-      unattached: [],
-    }
-  }
-
-  // In-scope deps: both endpoints participating.
-  const depsMap = new Map<number, number[]>() // issue -> its dependencies
-  const dependentsMap = new Map<number, number[]>() // issue -> who depends on it
-  for (const id of participating) {
-    depsMap.set(id, [])
-    dependentsMap.set(id, [])
-  }
-  for (const e of d.deps) {
-    if (participating.has(e.issue) && participating.has(e.dependsOn)) {
-      depsMap.get(e.issue)!.push(e.dependsOn)
-      dependentsMap.get(e.dependsOn)!.push(e.issue)
-    }
-  }
-
-  // Column = longest dependency depth. Cycle-guarded (shouldn't happen — real
-  // gitea deps are DAG-shaped in practice — but recursion must not hang).
-  const colMemo = new Map<number, number>()
-  function colOf(id: number, visiting: Set<number>): number {
-    const cached = colMemo.get(id)
-    if (cached != null) return cached
-    if (visiting.has(id)) return 0 // cycle guard: treat as a root
-    visiting.add(id)
-    const deps = depsMap.get(id) ?? []
-    const col = deps.length === 0 ? 0 : 1 + Math.max(...deps.map((dep) => colOf(dep, visiting)))
-    visiting.delete(id)
-    colMemo.set(id, col)
-    return col
-  }
-  for (const id of participating) colOf(id, new Set())
-
-  // Row = index within column, ordered deterministically by issue number.
-  const byCol = new Map<number, number[]>()
-  for (const id of participating) {
-    const col = colMemo.get(id)!
-    if (!byCol.has(col)) byCol.set(col, [])
-    byCol.get(col)!.push(id)
-  }
-  const rowOf = new Map<number, number>()
-  for (const ids of byCol.values()) {
-    ids.sort((a, b) => a - b)
-    ids.forEach((id, i) => rowOf.set(id, i))
-  }
-
-  const maxCol = Math.max(...[...colMemo.values()])
-
-  // Critical path from the real scheduler over the open backlog.
-  const plan = schedule(toSchedulable(d.issues), d.deps)
-  const critical = new Set(plan.items.filter((i) => i.critical).map((i) => i.number))
-  const scheduledByNumber = new Map(plan.items.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
-
-  const nodes: DepNode[] = [...participating].sort((a, b) => a - b).map((id) => {
-    const issue = byNumber.get(id)!
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[id] ?? [], d.today)
-    const scheduled = scheduledByNumber.get(id)
-    return {
-      id,
-      title: issue.title,
-      tags: issue.labels,
-      state: inf.column,
-      days: inf.steepingDays != null ? `${inf.steepingDays}d` : undefined,
-      col: colMemo.get(id)!,
-      row: rowOf.get(id)!,
-      // Reuse the scheduler's own rationale where one exists (open issues
-      // only) — never invented commentary for closed/unscheduled nodes.
-      rationale: scheduled?.rationale,
-    }
-  })
-
-  // Nearest open milestone with the most open in-scope issues.
-  const openMilestones = d.milestones.filter((m) => m.state === 'open')
-  let chosenMilestoneId: number | null = null
-  let milestone: DepsData['milestone']
-  const medianRow = median(nodes.map((n) => n.row))
-  if (openMilestones.length === 0) {
-    milestone = { name: '—', due: 'no date', col: maxCol + 1, row: medianRow }
-  } else {
-    let best: { id: number; title: string; dueOn: string | null | undefined; count: number } | null = null
-    for (const m of openMilestones) {
-      const count = [...participating].filter((id) => {
-        const issue = byNumber.get(id)!
-        return issue.milestone?.id === m.id && issue.state === 'open'
-      }).length
-      if (
-        best === null ||
-        count > best.count ||
-        (count === best.count && dueRank(m.dueOn) < dueRank(best.dueOn))
-      ) {
-        best = { id: m.id, title: m.title, dueOn: m.dueOn, count }
-      }
-    }
-    // best is non-null since openMilestones.length > 0
-    chosenMilestoneId = best!.count > 0 ? best!.id : null
-    milestone = {
-      name: best!.title,
-      due: best!.dueOn ? formatShort(new Date(best!.dueOn)) : 'no date',
-      col: maxCol + 1,
-      row: medianRow,
-    }
-  }
-
-  const edges: DepEdge[] = []
-  for (const e of d.deps) {
-    if (!participating.has(e.issue) || !participating.has(e.dependsOn)) continue
-    const crit = critical.has(e.dependsOn) && critical.has(e.issue)
-    edges.push(crit ? { from: e.dependsOn, to: e.issue, crit: true } : { from: e.dependsOn, to: e.issue })
-  }
-
-  // Terminal nodes (nothing in scope depends on them) that belong to the
-  // chosen milestone's scope get an edge into it.
-  if (chosenMilestoneId != null) {
-    for (const id of participating) {
-      const dependents = dependentsMap.get(id) ?? []
-      if (dependents.length > 0) continue
-      const issue = byNumber.get(id)!
-      if (issue.milestone?.id !== chosenMilestoneId) continue
-      edges.push(critical.has(id) ? { from: id, to: 'ms', crit: true } : { from: id, to: 'ms' })
-    }
-  }
-
-  const linked = new Set<number>()
-  for (const e of edges) {
-    linked.add(e.from)
-    if (e.to !== 'ms') linked.add(e.to)
-  }
-  const unattached = [...participating].filter((id) => !linked.has(id)).sort((a, b) => a - b)
-
-  return { nodes, milestone, edges, critical: [...critical], unattached }
-}
-
-/** Rank a due date for "nearest" comparisons; undated milestones sort last. */
-function dueRank(dueOn: string | null | undefined): number {
-  return dueOn ? new Date(dueOn).getTime() : Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY
-}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/gantt-view.ts

@@ -1,130 +0,0 @@
-import { forecast, inferLifecycle, scheduleWithCapacity, workingDaysBetween } from '@commitea/core'
-
-import type { GanttData, GanttRow, GanttWeek } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { addWorkingDays, formatShort } from '../dates.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from './project-data.js'
-
-/** Same 2-char scheme as backlog.ts's `initials()`; copied inline (not exported there). */
-function initials(login: string): string {
-  return login.slice(0, 2).toUpperCase()
-}
-
-/** Copy of backlog.ts's private `toSchedulable` — not exported, so mirrored here. */
-function toSchedulable(issues: ProjectData['issues']) {
-  return issues
-    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-    .map((i) => ({
-      number: i.number,
-      title: i.title,
-      labels: i.labels,
-      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
-      priority: i.facts.priority,
-      assignee: i.assignee,
-    }))
-}
-
-const roundUpToWeek = (n: number): number => Math.ceil(Math.max(n, 1) / 7) * 7
-
-/**
- * Real Gantt: the capacity-aware scheduler's lane layout over the open backlog
- * (startDay/endDay/critical/worker) — the SAME layout the Monte Carlo forecast
- * runs each trial on, so the bars you see match what's forecast. Plus a handful
- * of recently-closed issues shown as already-done bars. No per-issue Monte Carlo
- * exists at this grain, so `p80` is a rough single-issue buffer (endDay padded by
- * half its own duration) rather than a simulated percentile — flagged below.
- */
-export function ganttView(d: ProjectData): GanttData {
-  const plan = scheduleWithCapacity(toSchedulable(d.issues), d.deps, d.workers)
-  const issueByNumber = new Map(d.issues.map((i) => [i.number, i]))
-
-  const scheduledRows: GanttRow[] = plan.items.map((item) => {
-    const issue = issueByNumber.get(item.number)
-    const inf = issue ? inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[item.number] ?? [], d.today) : null
-    const state: GanttRow['state'] =
-      inf?.column === 'done' ? 'done' : inf?.column === 'steeping' ? 'steeping' : inf?.column === 'review' ? 'review' : 'scheduled'
-    return {
-      id: item.number,
-      title: item.title,
-      // The lane it actually landed on (capacity-aware) — falls back to the
-      // assignee, then blank, so an unassigned issue shows the lane doing it.
-      who: initials(item.worker ?? issue?.assignee ?? ''),
-      start: item.startDay,
-      end: item.endDay,
-      crit: item.critical,
-      state,
-      // Rough single-issue buffer (no Monte Carlo at this grain): pad the end
-      // by half its own duration as a stand-in p80.
-      p80: Math.ceil(item.endDay + (item.endDay - item.startDay) * 0.5),
-    }
-  })
-
-  // Recently-closed issues (closed within ~14 calendar days) as already-done bars.
-  const doneRows: GanttRow[] = d.issues
-    .filter((i) => {
-      if (i.state !== 'closed' || !i.closedAt) return false
-      const ageDays = (d.today.getTime() - new Date(i.closedAt).getTime()) / (24 * 60 * 60 * 1000)
-      return ageDays >= 0 && ageDays <= 14
-    })
-    .map((i) => ({
-      id: i.number,
-      title: i.title,
-      who: initials(i.assignee ?? ''),
-      start: 0,
-      end: 1,
-      state: 'done' as const,
-    }))
-
-  const rows = [...doneRows, ...scheduledRows]
-
-  // Nearest open milestone with a due date, for the horizon + `due` marker.
-  const dueCandidates = d.milestones
-    .filter((m) => m.state === 'open' && m.dueOn)
-    .map((m) => ({ m, day: Math.max(0, workingDaysBetween(d.today, new Date(m.dueOn as string))) }))
-    .sort((a, b) => a.day - b.day)
-  const nearestDue = dueCandidates[0] ?? null
-
-  const days = roundUpToWeek(Math.max(7, ...rows.map((r) => r.end), nearestDue?.day ?? 0))
-
-  const weeks: GanttWeek[] = []
-  for (let at = 0; at <= days; at += 7) {
-    weeks.push({ at, label: formatShort(addWorkingDays(d.today, at)) })
-  }
-
-  const due = nearestDue
-    ? { at: nearestDue.day, label: `${nearestDue.m.title} due` }
-    : { at: days, label: 'horizon' }
-
-  // 80% window: forecast the nearest open milestone's open scope, if any has
-  // one; otherwise fall back to a generic band over the last third of the
-  // horizon (no milestone scope to anchor it to).
-  const open = d.issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-  const milestoneWithScope = d.milestones
-    .filter((m) => m.state === 'open')
-    .map((m) => ({ m, scope: open.filter((i) => i.milestone?.id === m.id) }))
-    .filter((x) => x.scope.length > 0)
-    .sort((a, b) => {
-      const da = a.m.dueOn ? workingDaysBetween(d.today, new Date(a.m.dueOn)) : Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY
-      const db = b.m.dueOn ? workingDaysBetween(d.today, new Date(b.m.dueOn)) : Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY
-      return da - db
-    })[0]
-
-  let band: GanttData['band']
-  if (milestoneWithScope) {
-    const f = forecast(toSchedulable(milestoneWithScope.scope), d.deps, { workers: d.workers })
-    const p90 = f.curve.length ? f.curve[f.curve.length - 1].p90Day : f.p95Day
-    band = { from: Math.round(f.p50Day), to: Math.round(p90), label: '80% window' }
-  } else {
-    // No milestone with open scope to anchor a real forecast to — degrade to
-    // a generic band over the last third of the horizon.
-    band = { from: Math.round((days * 2) / 3), to: days, label: '80% window' }
-  }
-
-  return {
-    days,
-    weeks,
-    today: 0,
-    band,
-    due,
-    rows,
-  }
-}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/inbox-view.ts

@@ -1,112 +0,0 @@
-import { inferLifecycle } from '@commitea/core'
-
-import type { InboxItem } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from './project-data.js'
-
-const CLOSED_CAP = 5
-const TOTAL_CAP = 12
-
-/** "HH:MM" from an ISO timestamp; '—' when absent (never fabricated). */
-function hhmm(iso: string | null | undefined): string {
-  if (!iso) return '—'
-  const d = new Date(iso)
-  const hh = String(d.getHours()).padStart(2, '0')
-  const mm = String(d.getMinutes()).padStart(2, '0')
-  return `${hh}:${mm}`
-}
-
-/**
- * Real Inbox feed: steeping nags, review-waiting issues, recently-closed
- * issues, and closed milestones — all derived straight from the reconciled
- * backlog + inferred lifecycle. No mentions, no outages, no people-activity:
- * ProjectData carries none of that, so those fixture item `type`s never
- * appear here (an honest degrade, not an oversight).
- */
-export function inboxView(d: ProjectData): InboxItem[] {
-  const items: InboxItem[] = []
-  let id = 1
-
-  const open = d.issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-
-  // 1. Steeping nags — open issues that have sat past first-commit for 2+ working days.
-  for (const issue of open) {
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], d.today)
-    if (inf.steepingDays == null || inf.steepingDays < 2) continue
-    const blocks = d.deps.filter((e) => e.dependsOn === issue.number).map((e) => e.issue)
-    items.push({
-      id: id++,
-      day: 'Today',
-      type: 'nag',
-      icon: 'clock',
-      tone: 'warn',
-      text: `#${issue.number} is steeping · ${inf.steepingDays}d`,
-      detail: blocks.length ? `blocks ${blocks.map((b) => `#${b}`).join(' and ')}` : 'worth a look',
-      time: hhmm(inf.stages.steeping),
-      unread: true,
-      issue: { id: issue.number, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels, days: `${inf.steepingDays}d` },
-    })
-  }
-
-  // 2. Review-waiting — open issues whose lifecycle has reached the review column.
-  for (const issue of open) {
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], d.today)
-    if (inf.column !== 'review') continue
-    items.push({
-      id: id++,
-      day: 'Today',
-      type: 'review',
-      icon: 'git-pull-request',
-      tone: 'info',
-      text: `#${issue.number} awaits review`,
-      detail: issue.title,
-      time: hhmm(inf.stages.review),
-      unread: true,
-      issue: { id: issue.number, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels },
-    })
-  }
-
-  // 3. Recently shipped — closed issues, newest close first, capped.
-  const closed = d.issues
-    .filter((i) => i.state === 'closed')
-    .slice()
-    .sort((a, b) => {
-      const at = a.closedAt ? new Date(a.closedAt).getTime() : -Infinity
-      const bt = b.closedAt ? new Date(b.closedAt).getTime() : -Infinity
-      return bt - at
-    })
-    .slice(0, CLOSED_CAP)
-  for (const issue of closed) {
-    items.push({
-      id: id++,
-      day: 'Yesterday',
-      type: 'milestone',
-      icon: 'circle-check',
-      tone: 'ok',
-      text: `#${issue.number} shipped`,
-      detail: issue.title,
-      time: hhmm(issue.closedAt),
-      unread: false,
-      issue: { id: issue.number, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels },
-    })
-  }
-
-  // 4. Milestone completion — milestones gitea reports as closed.
-  for (const m of d.milestones) {
-    if (m.state !== 'closed') continue
-    items.push({
-      id: id++,
-      day: 'Earlier',
-      type: 'milestone',
-      icon: 'milestone',
-      tone: 'ok',
-      // No milestone-close timestamp is available on GiteaMilestone, so time is
-      // left at the honest placeholder rather than borrowed from an issue.
-      text: `${m.title} closed`,
-      detail: 'milestone complete',
-      time: '—',
-      unread: false,
-    })
-  }
-
-  return items.slice(0, TOTAL_CAP)
-}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/issue-detail.ts

@@ -1,72 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  forecast,
-  inferLifecycle,
-  type LifecycleStages,
-  toDurationModel,
-} from '@commitea/core'
-
-import type { IssueDetail } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import { addWorkingDays, formatRange, formatShort } from '../dates.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from './project-data.js'
-
-const MONTHS = ['Jan', 'Feb', 'Mar', 'Apr', 'May', 'Jun', 'Jul', 'Aug', 'Sep', 'Oct', 'Nov', 'Dec']
-
-/** "Feb 6 · 11:47" from an ISO timestamp; "pending" when absent. */
-function when(iso: string | undefined): string {
-  if (!iso) return 'pending'
-  const d = new Date(iso)
-  const hh = String(d.getHours()).padStart(2, '0')
-  const mm = String(d.getMinutes()).padStart(2, '0')
-  return `${MONTHS[d.getMonth()]} ${d.getDate()} · ${hh}:${mm}`
-}
-
-function lifecycle(stages: LifecycleStages): IssueDetail['lifecycle'] {
-  return [
-    { stage: 'Diagnosis', event: 'issue opened', when: when(stages.opened), icon: 'circle-dot', done: true },
-    { stage: 'Triage', event: 'labeled / milestoned', when: when(stages.triaged), icon: 'tag', done: !!stages.triaged },
-    { stage: 'Work start', event: 'first commit ref', when: when(stages.steeping), icon: 'git-commit-horizontal', done: !!stages.steeping },
-    { stage: 'In review', event: 'PR referenced', when: when(stages.review), icon: 'git-merge', done: !!stages.review },
-    { stage: 'Complete', event: 'issue closed', when: when(stages.done), icon: 'circle-check', done: !!stages.done },
-  ]
-}
-
-/**
- * Real Issue-detail sidecar: lifecycle timeline (from event inference), a
- * single-issue forecast range, and the real dependency edges. Returns null for
- * an unknown id → the screen shows the demo fixture. Comments aren't reconciled,
- * so they stay empty (the screen degrades gracefully).
- */
-export function issueDetailView(id: number, d: ProjectData): IssueDetail | null {
-  const issue = d.issues.find((i) => i.number === id)
-  if (!issue) return null
-  const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[id] ?? [], d.today)
-  const blockedBy = d.deps.filter((e) => e.issue === id).map((e) => e.dependsOn)
-  const blocks = d.deps.filter((e) => e.dependsOn === id).map((e) => e.issue)
-
-  let forecastLine = { p80: 'closed', note: 'shipped' }
-  if (issue.state === 'open') {
-    const f = forecast(
-      [{ number: id, title: issue.title, labels: issue.labels, estimateDays: issue.facts.estimateDays, priority: issue.facts.priority, assignee: issue.assignee }],
-      [],
-      { ...(d.calibration ? { model: toDurationModel(d.calibration) } : {}), workers: d.workers },
-    )
-    const p90 = f.curve.length ? f.curve[f.curve.length - 1].p90Day : f.p95Day
-    forecastLine = {
-      p80: `done ${formatRange(addWorkingDays(d.today, f.p50Day), addWorkingDays(d.today, p90))}`,
-      note: d.calibration && !d.calibration.coldStart ? `from your history · n=${d.calibration.n}` : 'cold-start priors',
-    }
-  }
-
-  return {
-    state: inf.column === 'review' ? 'review' : inf.column,
-    assignee: issue.assignee ?? 'unassigned',
-    milestone: issue.milestone?.title ?? '—',
-    body: issue.body,
-    comments: [],
-    lifecycle: lifecycle(inf.stages),
-    forecast: forecastLine,
-    blocks,
-    blockedBy,
-    note: inf.steepingDays != null ? `Steeping ${inf.steepingDays}d.${blocks.length ? ` Blocks ${blocks.map((b) => `#${b}`).join(', ')}.` : ''}` : '',
-  }
-}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/project-data.ts

@@ -1,17 +0,0 @@
-import type { CalibrationModel, DependencyEdge, GiteaIssue, GiteaMilestone, LifecycleEvent, Worker } from '@commitea/core'
-
-/**
- * The reconciled backlog + derived config that every real-data view builder
- * consumes. AppShell assembles it once from the backlog + capacity, so each
- * screen's builder gets a uniform input. `calibration`/`workers` are optional —
- * views degrade to cold-start / single-worker when absent.
- */
-export interface ProjectData {
-  issues: GiteaIssue[]
-  milestones: GiteaMilestone[]
-  deps: DependencyEdge[]
-  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>
-  calibration?: CalibrationModel
-  workers: Worker[]
-  today: Date
-}

apps/desktop/src/renderer/src/lib/views/standup-view.ts

@@ -1,157 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  type DependencyEdge,
-  type GiteaIssue,
-  inferLifecycle,
-  schedule,
-  type ScheduledItem,
-} from '@commitea/core'
-
-import type { DriftItem, Nag, PlanItem, StandupData } from '../../data/fixtures.js'
-import type { ProjectData } from './project-data.js'
-
-/** Same shape as backlog.ts's private toSchedulable — not exported there, so copied inline. */
-function toSchedulable(issues: GiteaIssue[]) {
-  return issues
-    .filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-    .map((i) => ({
-      number: i.number,
-      title: i.title,
-      labels: i.labels,
-      estimateDays: i.facts.estimateDays,
-      priority: i.facts.priority,
-      assignee: i.assignee,
-    }))
-}
-
-function whyFor(item: ScheduledItem): string {
-  if (item.critical) return 'On the critical path.'
-  if (item.blocks.length) return `Blocks ${item.blocks.map((b) => `#${b}`).join(', ')}.`
-  return 'Next by dependency + priority order.'
-}
-
-/**
- * Top scheduled pick per distinct assignee. Iterates the (already dependency-
- * + priority-ordered) plan once, keeping the first item seen per assignee —
- * that's their earliest-starting pick since the v0 scheduler lays out a single
- * serial lane (order ascending ⇒ startDay ascending). Ordered by `d.workers`
- * when present (assignees absent from the roster are appended after the named
- * workers; unassigned work last), else by discovery order. Capped at 4 people.
- */
-function buildPlan(d: ProjectData, open: GiteaIssue[], items: ScheduledItem[]): PlanItem[] {
-  const assigneeByNumber = new Map(open.map((i) => [i.number, i.assignee]))
-  const firstPickByPerson = new Map<string, ScheduledItem>()
-  for (const item of items) {
-    const key = assigneeByNumber.get(item.number) ?? 'Unassigned'
-    if (!firstPickByPerson.has(key)) firstPickByPerson.set(key, item)
-  }
-
-  let order: string[]
-  if (d.workers.length) {
-    const workerOrder = d.workers.map((w) => w.person)
-    const known = workerOrder.filter((p) => firstPickByPerson.has(p))
-    const extra = [...firstPickByPerson.keys()].filter((k) => k !== 'Unassigned' && !workerOrder.includes(k))
-    order = [...known, ...extra]
-    if (firstPickByPerson.has('Unassigned')) order.push('Unassigned')
-  } else {
-    order = [...firstPickByPerson.keys()]
-  }
-
-  return order.slice(0, 4).map((who) => {
-    const item = firstPickByPerson.get(who)!
-    return { who, pick: `#${item.number}`, title: item.title, why: whyFor(item) }
-  })
-}
-
-/**
- * The single longest-steeping open issue (inferLifecycle's steepingDays, whole
- * working days since first commit ref). `blocks` comes from the scheduler's
- * in-scope dependents of that same issue. Falls back to a calm, honest nag
- * when nothing is currently steeping.
- */
-function buildNag(d: ProjectData, open: GiteaIssue[], items: ScheduledItem[]): Nag {
-  let worst: { issue: GiteaIssue; days: number } | null = null
-  for (const issue of open) {
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], d.today)
-    if (inf.steepingDays != null && (worst == null || inf.steepingDays > worst.days)) {
-      worst = { issue, days: inf.steepingDays }
-    }
-  }
-  if (!worst) {
-    return { id: 0, days: '0d', blocks: [], text: 'Nothing is over-steeping. The pot is calm.' }
-  }
-
-  const scheduled = items.find((it) => it.number === worst!.issue.number)
-  const blocks = (scheduled?.blocks ?? []).map((n) => `#${n}`)
-  const days = `${worst.days}d`
-  return {
-    id: worst.issue.number,
-    days,
-    blocks,
-    text: `${days} steeping. ${blocks.length ? `Blocks ${blocks.join(', ')}.` : 'Worth a look.'}`,
-  }
-}
-
-/**
- * Honest drift signals only — ProjectData carries no notification/webhook
- * stream, so drift is limited to what lifecycle inference can actually see:
- * open issues sitting in review (age isn't measurable from the data we have,
- * so every review-column issue is flagged rather than fabricating a duration)
- * and open issues steeping past their own estimate. Sorted most-severe first
- * (steeping overage ranks by days over estimate; review-sitting is a flat,
- * lower severity since it has no measured age) and capped at 4.
- */
-function buildDrift(d: ProjectData, open: GiteaIssue[]): DriftItem[] {
-  const candidates: (DriftItem & { severity: number })[] = []
-  for (const issue of open) {
-    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, d.timelines[issue.number] ?? [], d.today)
-    if (inf.column === 'review') {
-      candidates.push({
-        tone: 'warn',
-        text: `#${issue.number} ${issue.title} is sitting in review.`,
-        delta: 'idle in review',
-        severity: 1,
-      })
-    }
-    if (inf.steepingDays != null) {
-      const est = issue.facts.estimateDays ?? 2
-      if (inf.steepingDays > est) {
-        candidates.push({
-          tone: 'warn',
-          text: `#${issue.number} ${issue.title} has steeped past its estimate.`,
-          delta: `${inf.steepingDays}d vs ${est}d est`,
-          severity: inf.steepingDays - est + 1,
-        })
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  return candidates
-    .sort((a, b) => b.severity - a.severity)
-    .slice(0, 4)
-    .map(({ tone, text, delta }) => ({ tone, text, delta }))
-}
-
-/**
- * Morning-standup sidecar: per-person top pick from the deterministic
- * scheduler, the single longest-steeping issue as the day's nag, and drift
- * limited to real lifecycle anomalies (review-sitting, steeping-past-estimate).
- * Never throws — an empty/cold backlog degrades to an empty plan, empty drift,
- * and a calm nag.
- */
-export function standupView(d: ProjectData): StandupData {
-  const date = d.today.toLocaleDateString('en-GB', {
-    weekday: 'long',
-    day: 'numeric',
-    month: 'long',
-    year: 'numeric',
-  })
-  const open = d.issues.filter((i) => i.state === 'open')
-  const deps: DependencyEdge[] = d.deps
-  const { items } = schedule(toSchedulable(open), deps)
-
-  return {
-    date,
-    plan: buildPlan(d, open, items),
-    nag: buildNag(d, open, items),
-    drift: buildDrift(d, open),
-  }
-}

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.test.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import type { LifecycleEvent } from '../lifecycle/lifecycle-v0.js'
 import type { GiteaIssue } from '../gitea/types.js'
 import {
   CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationCoverage,
   calibrationSamples,
   type CalibrationSample,
   COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
@@ -118,4 +119,26 @@ describe('calibrationSamples', () => {
     const noEst = issue({ number: 9, labels: [] })
     expect(calibrationSamples([open, noEst], { ...events(8), ...events(9) }, asOf)).toEqual([])
   })
+
+  it('coverage counts same-day closes as excluded candidates, not as "more closes needed"', () => {
+    // usable: commit Wed 01-07 → close Mon 01-12 = 3 working days
+    const usable = issue({ number: 7, labels: ['est/2d'] })
+    // same-day close: commit and close on the same day = 0 working days → excluded
+    const sameDay = issue({ number: 10, labels: ['est/2d'], createdAt: '2026-01-12T08:00:00Z' })
+    const sameDayEvents = {
+      10: [
+        { type: 'commit', at: '2026-01-12T09:00:00Z' } as LifecycleEvent,
+        { type: 'close', at: '2026-01-12T17:00:00Z' } as LifecycleEvent,
+      ],
+    }
+    const open = issue({ number: 8, state: 'open', labels: ['est/2d'], closedAt: null })
+    const noEst = issue({ number: 9, labels: [] })
+
+    const cov = calibrationCoverage([usable, sameDay, open, noEst], { ...events(7), ...sameDayEvents }, asOf)
+    expect(cov.candidates).toBe(2) // closed + estimated only (usable + sameDay)
+    expect(cov.usable).toBe(1)
+    expect(cov.excludedSameDay).toBe(1)
+    // the honest denominator: usable matches the model's n
+    expect(cov.usable).toBe(calibrationSamples([usable, sameDay, open, noEst], { ...events(7), ...sameDayEvents }, asOf).length)
+  })
 })

packages/core/src/calibration/calibration-v0.ts

@@ -125,3 +125,40 @@ export function calibrationSamples(
   }
   return out
 }
+
+/** How the closed+estimated backlog splits into usable samples vs. what can't calibrate. */
+export interface CalibrationCoverage {
+  /** Closed issues carrying an estimate — the calibration candidates. */
+  candidates: number
+  /** Candidates that yielded a usable actual (> 0 working days) → become samples. */
+  usable: number
+  /**
+   * Candidates excluded because the issue closed with 0 working days (same-day
+   * close) or no resolvable actual — real closes that structurally can't
+   * calibrate. Counting them keeps `usable/threshold` honest: it's not "N more
+   * closes away" if some of your closes will never count.
+   */
+  excludedSameDay: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Coverage of the calibration candidates — how many closed+estimated issues are
+ * usable vs. silently unusable (same-day / 0-day closes). {@link calibrationSamples}
+ * drops the latter; this counts them so the UI can say *why* the sample is thin.
+ */
+export function calibrationCoverage(
+  issues: GiteaIssue[],
+  timelines: Record<number, LifecycleEvent[]>,
+  asOf: Date,
+): CalibrationCoverage {
+  let candidates = 0
+  let usable = 0
+  for (const issue of issues) {
+    if (issue.state !== 'closed') continue
+    if (issue.facts.estimateDays == null) continue
+    candidates++
+    const inf = inferLifecycle(issue, timelines[issue.number] ?? [], asOf)
+    if (inf.actualWorkingDays != null && inf.actualWorkingDays > 0) usable++
+  }
+  return { candidates, usable, excludedSameDay: candidates - usable }
+}

packages/core/src/index.ts

@@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ export type {
 
 export {
   CALIBRATION_BUCKET_FLOOR,
+  calibrationCoverage,
   calibrationSamples,
   COLD_START_THRESHOLD,
   fitCalibration,
@@ -80,6 +81,7 @@ export {
 } from './calibration/calibration-v0.js'
 export type {
   BucketFit,
+  CalibrationCoverage,
   CalibrationModel,
   CalibrationSample,
   PersonBias,